The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[FlawlessVictory]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Avatar might have started the 3D craze, but I think Clash of the Titans just killed it.

I wish that were the case but I don't think so. WB is hellbent on releasing every major tentpole film in 3D, regardless of how terrible the quality of it is. The general public needs to realize what is going on here and not support these half-assed attempts. Hit the studio where it hurts most, the wallet. Only then will they learn to either do it right, or not at all.

Originally Posted by Chewy

**** 3-D

3-D is what it is, and we don't need to see every big blockbuster in 3-D. If anything, I'm more excited that they're sticking to their guns and releasing the movie they wanted to make rather than doing a quick 3-D conversion for the added B.O.

As for whether IM2 will break the OW record, of course it will. With how well IM opened, the public now being so aware of the character/franchise and the increase in ticket prices, I would go so far as to say it could be considered a bit of a disappointment if it didn't break the record. It seems like every year some BO record is going down, this year will be the OW record. Most likely IM2 breaks it, then the next Twilight will, Harry Potter, Spider-Man, Avengers, Batman 3 etc... And with 3D prices factored in to some of these movies, records will be going down left and right in the next few years.

[Nivek]

I think this will be the film to beat this year, I predict that it will be just under a billion WW.

[Catman]

Originally Posted by Nivek

I think this will be the film to beat this year

Not when you have the second-to-last Harry Potter film being released. And in 3D no less.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by Catman

Not when you have the second-to-last Harry Potter film being released. And in 3D no less.

Iron Man 2 will probably beat Potter in the U.S. but not worldwide.

[Catman]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

Iron Man 2 will probably beat Potter in the U.S. but not worldwide.

Normally, I'd agree but 3D is a factor this time. The last HP movie grossed $300 million domestically. So, it's safe to assume that the new installment will be inflated because of the higher ticket prices.

[Blitzkrieg Bop]

Originally Posted by Venomfan

how did the first movie do in comparison to Batman Begins? by all means Batman Begins should have made much more money since Iron Man was a nobody to most people, but i have a feeling Iron Man made more money. Going by that theres a chance it could beat TDK if its a real good movie

Batman Begins had **** for brains marketing, 2005 was the year of Darth Vader. You hardly saw anything, especially compared to The Dark Knight. Plus, Batman Begins had to deal with being the first Batman movie since Batman and Robin.

[FlawlessVictory]

BULLETPROOF: 'Iron Man 2' Already Grosses $10M Overseas; $155M Predicted For North American Debut Weekend
By Nikki Finke | Friday April 30, 2010 @ 11:15am PDT

It doesn't matter if this sequel is any good. (Some early reviews are saying it disappoints although it has a 70+% positive on Rotten Tomatoes.) It doesn't matter that it's not in 3D. (Some fanboys are griping that it's only in 2D but ticket prices will be cheaper.) Because this Marvel comic book caper distributed by Paramount is still gonna make a mint even without lifting an armored finger. Maybe $135 million domestic its first 3-day weekend, or so rival studios predict. The original IM made $98.6M. Only some expect IM2 to break The Dark Knight's 3-day record of 158.4M.

Iron Man 2 opened internationally Wednesday early so as not to get in the way of the monthlong World Cup begining in South Africa on June 11th.) The pic immediately jumped to the top of the box office in 6 markets for a total $2.2 million. In France, the Jon Favreau-directed campfest ran 11% ahead of 2008's Iron Man bow there. On Thursday, Paramount continued its international rollout in 21 total countries (+17 markets) for a cume already of $10 million). Australia and Korea came in at $1.7 million (Down Under just ahead of where Spider-Man 3 opened in May 2007, and Russia $1.3 million, or 14% ahead of the Spidey threequel. Paramount rolls Iron Man 2 into 32 more territories today, or 6,450 theaters across 53 markets, which is 80% of international. China, Japan, Germany, Turkey, and India open over the next 4 weeks. The original Iron Man grossed $265 million internationally and $318.3 million domestically.

The online ticketseller Fandango reported Iron Man 2, which opens May 7th in North America, is a "Must See" by a 32% margin.

http://www.deadline.com/2010/04/bull...debut-weekend/

[Tony Stark]

I heard on the radio that Movietickets.com is reporting that online pre-sales are outgunning the original by 5-1 margin.

I don't know exactly how that translates, but I'm wondering with the increase in ticket prices since 2008, is it possible we could see the first 200 mil opening weekend?

[kedrell]

200M OW? Not very likely. Maybe if it was in 3-D.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't see 200mil either but 175mil is doable. I'm predicting 167mil.

[Tony Stark]

I agree 200 mil is a stretch, but when I heard 5 to 1, I mean my goodness the first one did 100 mil in the opening weekend, and keep in mind most theater chains instituted a 5% increase in ticket prices, just this year.

Wheather this film does it or not, I'm telling you in the next 2-3 years a film will brake the 200 mil mark.

I dont' know that it means much because of inflationary reasons, but still that's a big number. I mean you consider that a film like Batman Begins made just over 200 mil over it's entire run only 5 years ago.

[jmc]

Soon films making a billion dollars will become the norm too. There's been like 5 films pass that mark to date, I expect this decade will produce at least 10 films that will pass the billion dollar mark, and probably with relative ease.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Because of the outrageous 3D ticket prices alot of movies will be passing 1bil in just a few years.

And Tony I'd totally agree that a film will soon open with 200mil...I just don't think that IM2 will be that film. If A Nightmare on Elm Street fails to crack 30mil this weekend I might just up my prediction to 175-180mil because that will mean that people are probably waiting for the first summer movie to come out. Ofcourse my theory could easily be bulls**t but I'll predict those numbers anyway.

I still don't quite see it passing New Moon's opening day but it will undoubtedly have a better weekend multiplier. I mean I wouldn't be suprised if it had a bigger opening day than New Moon but for some reason I just think that it will miss it by a 1mil or so.

[kedrell]

If this film cracks the 170M barrier on OW then the 5 day record($203M) TDK holds will also likely fall, I predict. Otherwise it'll be hard since schools are still in session.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Schools being in session didn't stop Spider-Man and Spider-Man 3 from getting the opening weekend record. If it doesn't put up those numbers it's not going to be because kids are in school.

[kedrell]

I was talking about the 5-day record. Monday & Tuesday are school days. And Sunday being Mother's Day is also an added factor in the mix that I'm not sure how it will play out.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Unless a movie is released mid-week the five day record is pretty pointless.

[kedrell]

Well all these records are kinda pointless. What matters at the end of the day is the total. Avatar didn't break any opening weekend records.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Because of the outrageous 3D ticket prices alot of movies will be passing 1bil in just a few years.

And Tony I'd totally agree that a film will soon open with 200mil...I just don't think that IM2 will be that film. If A Nightmare on Elm Street fails to crack 30mil this weekend I might just up my prediction to 175-180mil because that will mean that people are probably waiting for the first summer movie to come out. Ofcourse my theory could easily be bulls**t but I'll predict those numbers anyway.

I still don't quite see it passing New Moon's opening day but it will undoubtedly have a better weekend multiplier. I mean I wouldn't be suprised if it had a bigger opening day than New Moon but for some reason I just think that it will miss it by a 1mil or so.

Well it's definitely going to be between Iron Man 2 and Eclipse for the top summer movie I believe. All the Twilight movies do well because they have such a strong female demographic, although I read somwhere that for a Superhero movie IM2 tracked well among women.

Anyway, as people mentioned, with 3D prices and theaters in general increasing ticket prices, billion dollar movies will be common place and I can see the day where a 100 mil opening in the summer might be viewed as "bad".

Clearly Alice in Wonderland wouldn't have broken the March records had it not been in 3D.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

It would have opened to about 90mil instead of the 116mil it did so it still would have gotten the March opening weekend record. Atleast thats what boxoffice mojo said. It still would've been a huge hit, just not 328mil and counting huge.

[redfirebird2008]

I think a $170-180m opening weekend is likely. Tracking shows a very similar level of interest to TDK at the same point in time. It's been roughly 2 years since then, meaning 2 years of inflation (typically around 4% per year). This means TDK's opening weekend adjusts to around $170m. So if IM2 has the same level of interest, it should make somewhere in that neighborhood. Depending on screencount and so forth, it could certainly squeeze another $5-10m out of it to get in that $180m area.

Domestically I think its total will be $425-475m. Worldwide I expect $800-850m.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Whatever it does domestically I think that it does atleast 50mil less internationally.

My total prediction for it is 455mil domestic and 385mil internationally. Thats 840mil total ofcourse.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Whatever it does domestically I think that it does atleast 50mil less internationally.

My total prediction for it is 455mil domestic and 385mil internationally. Thats 840mil total ofcourse.

Yep, it's not likely to make more overseas than domestic. Same deal as Batman and numerous other superhero movies. That's a pretty darn good prediction you have there IMHO.

[S.A.A.D.]

Box Office Mojo has it that Ironman 2 is on 4,000 screens.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by S.A.A.D

Box Office Mojo has it that Ironman 2 is on 4,000 screens.

You mean theaters. Screen count is different from theater count. Spidey 3 was on 10,000 screens at 4,252 theaters. TDK was on 9,000 screens at 4,366 theaters. IM2 will probably be on 10,000+ screens since it's early May and there aren't many other movies that audiences want to see right now.

The first Iron Man opened in 4,105 theaters on 8,700 screens. The 4,000 theater thing is probably just an early estimate. I would think the actual theater count for IM2 will be more along the lines of TDK (nearly 4,400 theaters) while the screen count will be more along the lines of Spidey 3 (10,000+ screens).