The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[rashad]

BOM is reliable when it comes to stuff like that. The 4,000
TC may or maynot change. http://boxofficemojo.com/counts/char...er=DESC&p=.htm

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Yep, it's not likely to make more overseas than domestic. Same deal as Batman and numerous other superhero movies. That's a pretty darn good prediction you have there IMHO.

Thanks. I hope I'm right because I hate being wrong when I predict the boxoffice.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Thanks. I hope I'm right because I hate being wrong when I predict the boxoffice.

After Avatar, I just throw my hands up and go, "Whatever!"

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by rashad

BOM is reliable when it comes to stuff like that. The 4,000
TC may or maynot change. http://boxofficemojo.com/counts/char...er=DESC&p=.htm

I wasn't saying they aren't reliable. I'm merely saying that it is an estimate. I follow BOM frequently and post on their forums. They do not have the actual theater count until the Thursday before an opening Friday. Go take a look at this week's theater count for Friday openers:

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/...0&wk=18&p=.htm

Take a look at the part where it says "updated Thursday afternoons." We will not find out IM2's actual theater count until next Thursday. The 4,000 number is just an estimate, a conservative one. They underestimated TDK's theater count by a few hundred if I remember right.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by Anita18

After Avatar, I just throw my hands up and go, "Whatever!"

lol Yeah, that movie came out of nowhere and just killed it.

[hatebox]

I'm lowering my box office expectations slightly due to the influx of middling reviews. It'll open massively as befits a huge May sequel, but I'm not sure it sounds like the kind of film that'll get a lot of repeat viewing, not to menion attract an audience that would never see a superhero film which TDK seemed to manage.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Comparing it to the TDK is unfair anyhow.

No matter how much people fight me on it I still say that the Heath Ledger death story mixed in with one of the most popular villains of all time gave that movie an advantage. Ofcourse the movie made most of it's money off of being good because people saw it again but it did have advantages.

Now thats the last I speak of it because I don't want to argue and this is a thread about Iron Man's boxoffice numbers.

[hatebox]

http://www.deadline.com/2010/05/bull...debut-weekend/

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by hatebox

http://www.deadline.com/2010/05/bull...debut-weekend/

The first one made almost $100m during its first weekend overseas, so this is not the best of starts. Certainly by Sunday evening that figure is going to be higher but I was expecting this movie to be bigger overseas than its predecessor.

[bapi]

Oh, OS numbers don't look so great. Transformers 2 had 12% increase against TF1 and it looks like IM 2 will have similar. So it's gonna be hard to cross even 300. That's not great.

[hatebox]

I've no idea whether those numbers are good or bad but I'm guessing it's only been released in a few countries rather than at the same time everywhere like the last one? Or is it pretty much only the US that doesn't have it now?

[bapi]

Originally Posted by hatebox

I've no idea whether those numbers are good or bad but I'm guessing it's only been released in a few countries rather than at the same time everywhere like the last one? Or is it pretty much only the US that doesn't have it now?

It's in 80% now. IM1 had 90 or 95%.

[Mauser9910]

For what it's worth, in France, on opening day IM2 sold almost 204.500 tickets and comparing the numbers of the first screening of IM2 in Paris on opening day and the same for IM, it was up 28%...

[hatebox]

Apparently it's brought in $100m so far but I'm not sure what date that's up to, it could be the prediction for this weekend. The weather in the UK was terrible this weekend so that probably helped.

[Mauser9910]

I guess it covers Wednesday->Friday or Saturday at best.

[JP]

It's 5 days, as in Wednesday to Today.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Apparently it's brought in $100m so far but I'm not sure what date that's up to, it could be the prediction for this weekend. The weather in the UK was terrible this weekend so that probably helped.

I'm thinking it'll make around $350-400m overseas, which is what I expected before the release. I think it will make at least $425m domestic, so it has a pretty good shot at $800m worldwide.

[hatebox]

Just out of curiosity has a May release, which has to contend with the rest of the summer competition, ever made more than $400m domestic?

Edit - nvm, I see that SM1 and Phantom Menace did.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Just out of curiosity has a May release, which has to contend with the rest of the summer competition, ever made more than $400m domestic?

Spider-Man did it in 2002 and that was with Star Wars II on its tail later in May. Spidey made nearly $404 million in 2002 dollars. That number adjusts to $521 million in 2009 dollars due to inflation. Shrek 2 was a May release that made $441 million in 2004 dollars. That number adjusts to nearly $533 million in 2009 dollars. Star Wars I came out in May and made $431 million in 1999 dollars. That number adjusts to $636 million in 2009 dollars. Here is the adjusted chart:

http://boxofficemojo.com/alltime/adj...yr=2009&p=.htm

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Just out of curiosity has a May release, which has to contend with the rest of the summer competition, ever made more than $400m domestic?

Only three out of ten movies that grossed over 400 million came out in May: Spider-man, Shrek 2, and The Phantom Menace.

But Iron Man 2 doesn't have that much direct competition. Only Prince of Persia and that comes out three weeks later.

[rashad]

Should do about 350M OS.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

Only three out of ten movies that grossed over 400 million came out in May: Spider-man, Shrek 2, and The Phantom Menace.

But Iron Man 2 doesn't have that much direct competition. Only Prince of Persia and that comes out three weeks later.

And who knows how Prince of Persia will do. To me it looks like it's got "bomb" written all over it. Not too many movies based on video games have been successful. The first Tomb raider barely made back production costs, and the second one bombed out big time. Jake Gylenhaal to me is not an actor who can carry a film. He's pretty much bombed out in everything he's tried to be a leading man in.

Robin Hood will be interesting. This movie has potential to be a big suprise, well see.

IM2 may not face any real competition until Eclipse which if IM breaks TDK's records, there a chance Eclipse might break IM2's. I hope not because I can't stand the Twilight series. Still you can't deny the power of the tween friendly love fest.

The biggest joke of the summer to me looks like Jonah Hex, which could have been a very cool film. But they decided to take one of this generations best actors in Josh Brolin, and paired him with one of this generations worst in Megan Fox. Fitting though that she's playing a whore. Yeah she is hot, but that's the only reason she's employed in Hollywood.

[shuffleboard]

Edited: This will finish $350-400M.

[FaT_tONle]

Guess 400 is the new 300, which was in serious doubt for the first film. Can't expect to strike gold twice.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by FaT_tONle

Guess 400 is the new 300, which was in serious doubt for the first film. Can't expect to strike gold twice.

Yes, $400m is no longer anywhere near as difficult as it was a number of years ago due to inflation. That's why TDK's domestic box office is pretty similar in achievement to Spidey 1's. It would be nice if they just did this stuff in ticket sales instead of nominal dollars. Hollywood gets to hide behind inflation. The music industry, however, simply tracks units sold and there's no way of hiding the declines that have gone on over the years.