The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by PokeJ

Damn, this sucks. I wasn't expecting such a HUGE drop today. There goes pretty much any chance of having a 100 million 2nd weekend, I bet it doesn't even reach 85 million this weekend. Awful drop.

Middle of the week is usually the slowest, so I'm not too worry about it. I still believe this weekend TA will gross at least 100 million, and probably more.

[darthmagic]

Originally Posted by Spideyfan93

A lot of my friends and majority of people, including myself, said the story is simple.

But after some pondering, would it be necessary to think that the real story is the coming together of these powerful egos whom must set aside their differences to fight for the safety of the world. It's still not that deep on the surface, but that sounds like a better summary than...

Oh, Loki has an army ready to destroy Earth and the Avengers must stop them!

I think people completely miss the point of Avengers. Everyone is complaining about chracter arcs and so on. They completely ignore that this movie is driven by team dynamic, and that's where the character arc is. The character being the team. It shows how these disparate characters come together despite their differences and backgrounds.

In regards to the plot, i don't have an issue with the simple plot. You can have a simple plot but that dosen't make the movie any less interesting. It's all about what happens to the characters as they seek to accomplish their task simple or complex. As they fight, verbally and physically, and learn to work together that's when you have something special, that's when you have critical and box office gold.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Mysteryman

31 Million an awful drop?
Wasnt Monday about 19 million?
Nothing but good box office news about The Avengers from where I stand .

Yeah people forget this is not a zero sum game. A higher Monday means less business during the week. May is never a good indicator based on daily numbers, or at least you have to view it in context to other may movies.

[Gamma Burst]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Are you serious? Thor had the same drop on Wed last year and it had a lower weekend drop than IM1.

He can't be. His post doesn't make sense when you look at the numbers.

[Suzanne78]

According to boxoffice.com forums, it does look like Dark Shadows is beating Avengers in some foreign markets already (France, Portugal, etc...) Even though Tim Burton and Depp both lost their appeal for me ages ago, I'm definitely not going to count DS out yet domestically. This does have a legit shot to slow some of Avengers progress down. I hope not, but it could.

Still though, so long as Avengers is on track for $1 BIL next week, and on track for a possible sub-70% decline in the US this weekend, I'm a happy girl. I'd love for it to gross anywhere between $90-$120 million.

[Gamma Burst]

Originally Posted by Suzanne78

According to boxoffice.com forums, it does look like Dark Shadows is beating Avengers in some foreign markets already (France, Portugal, etc...) Even though Tim Burton and Depp both lost their appeal for me ages ago, I'm definitely not going to count DS out yet domestically. This does have a legit shot to slow some of Avengers progress down. I hope not, but it could.

Still though, so long as Avengers is on track for $1 BIL next week, and on track for a possible sub-70% decline in the US this weekend, I'm a happy girl. I'd love for it to gross anywhere between $90-$120 million.

It was expected to beat it in some foreign territories due to Depp's appeal.
It will be less than spectacular in US, with probably less than 40m open weekend.

THR:

The Warner Bros. pic, headlining Johnny Depp as a vampire, is tracking to open in the $35 million to $40 million range domestically. It also opens in 42 markets overseas, where Depp is a huge international star.
Dark Shadows could beat Avengers in certain territories but might not be able to match Avengers' overall weekend international gross. Burton's film got off to a strong start Wednesday in France, grossing north of $750,000.

[Suzanne78]

Originally Posted by darthmagic

I think people completely miss the point of Avengers. Everyone is complaining about chracter arcs and so on. They completely ignore that this movie is driven by team dynamic, and that's where the character arc is. The character being the team. It shows how these disparate characters come together despite their differences and backgrounds.

In regards to the plot, i don't have an issue with the simple plot. You can have a simple plot but that dosen't make the movie any less interesting. It's all about what happens to the characters as they seek to accomplish their task simple or complex. As they fight, verbally and physically, and learn to work together that's when you have something special, that's when you have critical and box office gold.

This. This is where plot vs. story are often confused. The plot of Avengers was pretty simple and basic. The story though was focused on how these characters could come together as a team. That's what the dialogue and the acting were mostly focused on and it helped craft a far superior blockbuster. That's also why Joss was hired, to give the movie a richness in characterization and dialogue and storytelling that's so often missing from movies of this kind.

[Suzanne78]

I keep forgetting Depp moved to France ages ago...

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Suzanne78

According to boxoffice.com forums, it does look like Dark Shadows is beating Avengers in some foreign markets already (France, Portugal, etc...) Even though Tim Burton and Depp both lost their appeal for me ages ago, I'm definitely not going to count DS out yet domestically. This does have a legit shot to slow some of Avengers progress down. I hope not, but it could.

Still though, so long as Avengers is on track for $1 BIL next week, and on track for a possible sub-70% decline in the US this weekend, I'm a happy girl. I'd love for it to gross anywhere between $90-$120 million.

Lowest it will get would be $85 and that's doing IM2 numbers, which no one foresees.

I don't see DS doing much. $35 tops this weekend. That's a movie made for Tim Burton by Tim Burton, that no one really wants to see. The reviews have been tepid at best (even the good ones)

[Danalys]

audiences lap up the overly clean looking, frivolous new burton stuff it seems.

[Gamma Burst]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Lowest it will get would be $85 and that's doing IM2 numbers, which no one foresees.

I don't see DS doing much. $35 tops this weekend. That's a movie made for Tim Burton by Tim Burton, that no one really wants to see. The reviews have been tepid at best (even the good ones)

The lowest I see it dropping, and most analysts seem to agree with, is around low 50%. So it does have a big shot at making 100M or more.

[50yroldfffan]

Originally Posted by darthmagic

I think people completely miss the point of Avengers. Everyone is complaining about chracter arcs and so on. They completely ignore that this movie is driven by team dynamic, and that's where the character arc is. The character being the team. It shows how these disparate characters come together despite their differences and backgrounds.

In regards to the plot, i don't have an issue with the simple plot. You can have a simple plot but that dosen't make the movie any less interesting. It's all about what happens to the characters as they seek to accomplish their task simple or complex. As they fight, verbally and physically, and learn to work together that's when you have something special, that's when you have critical and box office gold.

Well said!!! I'm stung by those who complain about character arc the team is the character thus the main arc! well said!! You should post your comment in the rate/review thread where people are still complaining about arc. lol

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by Gamma Burst

It was expected to beat it in some foreign territories due to Depp's appeal.
It will be less than spectacular in US, with probably less than 40m open weekend.

THR:

It's only been here for 2 weekends, but The Avengers has been out in France for 3 weekends now.

There's a BIG difference why a film like DS maybe doing better in some properties like France.

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by Suzanne78

According to boxoffice.com forums, it does look like Dark Shadows is beating Avengers in some foreign markets already (France, Portugal, etc...) Even though Tim Burton and Depp both lost their appeal for me ages ago, I'm definitely not going to count DS out yet domestically. This does have a legit shot to slow some of Avengers progress down. I hope not, but it could.

Still though, so long as Avengers is on track for $1 BIL next week, and on track for a possible sub-70% decline in the US this weekend, I'm a happy girl. I'd love for it to gross anywhere between $90-$120 million.

To clarify that's in regards to DS's OD (a Thursday) being larger than Avengers' 3rd Thursday in those countries.

[Jordanstine]

Originally Posted by Chewy

To clarify that's in regards to DS's OD (a Thursday) being larger than Avengers' 3rd Thursday in those countries.

Exactly.

The Avengers is already on their 3rd week overseas.

[Gamma Burst]

Yeah, that's true.

[Suzanne78]

Originally Posted by Chewy

To clarify that's in regards to DS's OD (a Thursday) being larger than Avengers' 3rd Thursday in those countries.

Ahhhh... thanks for the clarification, Chewy. I thought they meant DS's OD vs. Avengers OD.

Much, much more understandable.

[Paladin-Hoss]

Originally Posted by 50yroldfffan

Well said!!! I'm stung by those who complain about character arc the team is the character thus the main arc! well said!! You should post your comment in the rate/review thread where people are still complaining about arc. lol

`
Shouldn't let 'em get to you, old timer!

Look at it this way, for months, some of those people are claiming that the movie is gonna flop, that it's gonna be an average movie etc etc

And now, the movie not only a box office succes, but the critics and audience are loving it!...big time!!

Success on all fronts!

So now, the only way for those people to 'get back at us' is through those kinds of threads.

'LuLz!1 the AvenGeRs Haz No PlOtZ LuLZ !!!11!

Now some people really do have problems with the movie...that's okay.Can't please everybody. But some of 'em just post thing to provoke reactions from us fans...Just the way things are.

[thalidomide]

I made a HUGE drop after I ate too many tacos last night.

[50yroldfffan]

Originally Posted by Paladin-Hoss

`
Shouldn't let 'em get to you, old timer!

Look at it this way, for months, some of those people are claiming that the movie is gonna flop, that it's gonna be an average movie etc etc

And now, the movie not only a box office succes, but the critics and audience are loving it!...big time!!

Success on all fronts!

So now, the only way for those people to 'get back at us' is through those kinds of threads.

'LuLz!1 the AvenGeRs Haz No PlOtZ LuLZ !!!11!

Now some people really do have problems with the movie...that's okay.Can't please everybody. But some of 'em just post thing to provoke reactions from us fans...Just the way things are.

True I'm an old timer :-)
I've been following the SHH forums for some time (Fantastic Four movies). It was easy to see who was hoping this movie would fail and it must be a bitter pill for them to see what success this movie has had.
I remember one poster saying this movie looked like it was going to be another Phantom Menace. Boy was that person wrong! lol

[xeno000]

Dark Shadows is sitting at a miserable 44% on RT now, with 113 reviews tallied. It hasn't been accorded a consensus yet, but didn't The Avengers reach consensus status with far fewer reviews? At any rate, DS hasn't impressed very many critics and its word of mouth is likely to be abysmal. It isn't likely to dent TA's numbers much if at all.


Those poor IMAX folks must be blue over the thought of having to give up so much revenue because their screens are tied up with a stinker like DS.

[KangConquers]

With Avengers set to hit the high 300s Domestically by this Sunday, is $500 M now a flat guarantee?

[Avenger]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

With Avengers set to hit the high 300s Domestically by this Sunday, is $500 M now a flat guarantee?

Yes. $600M is even a possibility now, though if it gets that far it'll probably be just barely.

[Liam_H]

Yes $500 million is absolutely gonna happen. $600 million is the next goal now.

[thalidomide]

Can you imagine this movie earning a billion dollars without even re-releasing the movie?? fooking awesome!