Discussion: The European Union

[Axl Van Sixx]

Originally Posted by hippie_hunter

The French Socialist Party are not true Socialists the way Marx envisioned, but more along the lines of a social democracy party. But with Hollande's platform, if he goes through with it, is going to destroy France.

It's not even really up to Hollande; the real power centre in Europe is in Brussels and the bankers still want austerity. So it's likely that Hollande will do the bare minimum that he needs to save face among the people who voted for them, but otherwise he'll do whatever the bankers want (surprise!).

Regarding Greece, here's hoping that SYRIZA can put together an anti-austerity coalition government. If they could get the KKE on their side that might be enough, but unfortunately that party's leaders have been following a very sectarian path.

[hippie_hunter]

Originally Posted by Axl Van Sixx

It's not even really up to Hollande; the real power centre in Europe is in Brussels and the bankers still want austerity. So it's likely that Hollande will do the bare minimum that he needs to save face among the people who voted for them, but otherwise he'll do whatever the bankers want (surprise!).

Very true.

Regarding Greece, here's hoping that SYRIZA can put together an anti-austerity coalition government. If they could get the KKE on their side that might be enough, but unfortunately that party's leaders have been following a very sectarian path.

I don't see SYRIZA being able to put together a government. The only parties that are compatible with SYRIZA are PASOK, the Democratic Left, and the KKE and combined, they don't enough seats to form a government.

However, you also have to take a look at the chaos going on. PASOK refuses to form a coalition with SYRIZA because SYRIZA's platform will guarantee Greece being kicked out of the Eurozone. SYRIZA isn't going to work with Golden Dawn (no one in their right minds would). The Independent Greeks are essentially an anti-austerity New Democracy. And they couldn't form a government with New Democracy.

The most likely outcome will be new elections in June.

[Axl Van Sixx]

Let's hope, then, that the Greek left can get its act together by June.

[hippie_hunter]

With the way things are, I don't see any of the parties getting their act together.

[hippie_hunter]

SYRIZA has failed to put together a government, the baton has now been passed on for a final time to PASOK, which is expected to fail and a new set of elections are most likely going to be held.

[chamber-music]

Originally Posted by hippie_hunter

I think that the Eurozone is going to kick Greece out before such a thing occurs. The only way Greece can recover is if they drop the Euro and in the event that Greece does default, Greece getting kicked out beforehand will control the impact it has on the global economy.

I watched Michael Portillo's Greece Euro spercial on the BBC the other night. Portillo interviewed people on both sides of the political spectrum, families, buisness men, goverment officals and they all wanted to remain in the European Union as well as keep the Euro.

[hippie_hunter]

Originally Posted by chamber-music

I watched Michael Portillo's Greece Euro spercial on the BBC the other night. Portillo interviewed people on both sides of the political spectrum, families, buisness men, goverment officals and they all wanted to remain in the European Union as well as keep the Euro.

Well they can't have it both ways. If they want to remain in the Euro, then they have to continue on the trek of austerity. If they want to free themselves from it, they have no choice but to leave.

[Axl Van Sixx]

Well well well...Hollande isn't even in office yet and he's already backpedaling on his campaign promises. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you!

Triangulating France

“France’s Socialist president-elect Francois Hollande may use a summer audit of state finances to water down his generous campaign promises rather than risk a backlash from financial markets against stubbornly high deficits and rising debt.

Advisers say he could even freeze some spending if the review turns up any nasty surprises, soothing investors who are worried he has become the figurehead for a fight against German-imposed austerity in the euro zone.” (“France’s Hollande may roll back spending promises”, Reuters)

Hollande, who narrowly defeated Nicolas Sarkozy in the general election, has promised to renegotiate the EU’s notorious “fiscal pact” and to push a “pro growth” agenda to offset the effects of austerity measures which have thrust much of the continent back into recession. He now appears to be reversing his position in an effort to placate the markets.

[...]

If Hollande is not really interested in the welfare of working people, then how did he nab the top-spot on the Socialist Party ticket?

That’s easy. It’s because the Socialist Party in France is a big sham just like the Democratic Party in the US. Neither party represents the interests of working people. Here’s a clip from an article in the Washington Post that helps to clarify this point:

“The men and women who are elbowing for senior posts in Francois Hollande’s new French government reflect a range of political trajectories. But one thing they share is Hollande’s view of socialism as free-market social democracy — a pragmatic ideology in which nationalizations, clenched fists and the hammer and sickle are things of the past.

As a result, analysts here say, the policies that Hollande will follow when he takes over as president on Tuesday are unlikely to disrupt Europe’s political and economic systems or upset France’s relations with the United States.” (“French cabinet hopefuls share Francois Hollande’s pragmatic view of socialism”, Washington Post)

How do you like that? No garish “hammer and sickle” for M. Hollande and his coterie of free market carpetbaggers. Oh no, just plain-old slash and burn neoliberalism wrapped up in a tidy socialist ribbon.

Can you see what’s going on here? Hollande’s not interested in change. Not really. He’s just another triangulating sock-puppet hauling water for big business. That doesn’t mean that he won’t try to persuade Germany to “lighten up” on the austerity-thing. He probably will. Not because it’ll give working people a lift, but because his fatcat bank buddies are worried about “skittish” bondholders. Those are the guys who really count, not the little people who run the machines and stock the shelves. Hollande knows that; he’s no fool. That’s why he’s never going to veer too far from the policies set by his predecessor, because any major change would piss off the plutocrats. And we can’t have that!

[hippie_hunter]

Despite the name, you really can't call the French Socialist Party to be genuinely socialist like the French Communist Party. They're more along the lines of a social democratic party, so personally, I think it's a rather unfair criticism for the Socialist Party to not be following the hammer and sickle when they've been this way for almost 100 years.

[Axl Van Sixx]

Originally Posted by hippie_hunter

Despite the name, you really can't call the French Socialist Party to be genuinely socialist like the French Communist Party. They're more along the lines of a social democratic party, so personally, I think it's a rather unfair criticism for the Socialist Party to not be following the hammer and sickle when they've been this way for almost 100 years.

Oh, I totally agree. But there are many people who might be misled by the name "Socialist Party", so I thought it was important to clear up what they really are.

Despite the fact that the Socialist Party is reformist, not revolutionary, it does have a history in the labour movement (the French Communist Party began as an offshoot from the more radical wing of the Socialist Party). When Mitterand became president in the 80s, you actually had some worries on this side of the Atlantic that he might prove some kind of crazy leftist radical, until Mitterand illustrated that he was perfectly happy with business as usual.

So yes, the Socialist Party is a very mainstream party that will ultimately do whatever the "markets" demand of it. But French voters placed their hopes in Hollande because they believed that he represented an alternative to austerity. Once he inevitably betrays them, hopefully the conclusions they'll draw will lead to a surge in support for Jean-Luc Melanchon and the Left Front.

[hippie_hunter]

Mitterand had no choice but to go with business as usual. His economic policies at the start of his term utterly destroyed France.

[hippie_hunter]

PASOK has failed to form a government. There will be a final attempt led by the President of Greece to form a government in order to avoid another set of elections in June.

[hippie_hunter]

Negotiations to form a government have failed in Greece with new elections set for either June 10 or June 17. SYRIZA is currently leading the polls.

[Axl Van Sixx]

It's gonna be a crazy month.

[hippie_hunter]

Originally Posted by Axl Van Sixx

It's gonna be a crazy month.

Yeah it is. Who the hell even knows what's going to happen. On one hand, I would not be surprised at all if voters who previously supported PASOK and the Democratic Left go to SYRIZA because they have been really effective in being the spokesgroup to go against the bailout. On top of that, I can see former Independent Greek and New Democracy voters going to Golden Dawn, which should make it easy for SYRIZA to become the largest party.

But on the other hand, SYRIZA's leader has been insanely irresponsible throughout this process and I wouldn't be surprised if this blew up in his face.

[8wid]

What will happen if Greece leaves the eurozone?

There is going to be global stagflation and a dump at the world's stock markets if Greece leaves the Euro. $5 gasoline the United States, higher food prices, greater pressure on other nations near default such as Spain and Italy. The Arab Spring probably will intensify with the rise in food prices as will tensions in Africa especially between the Sudans. Nothing pretty will come from it and I feel that will cause at least a crisis the size of the one in 2008 all over again if not a Great Depression.

[Monsieur Xavier]

Originally Posted by Axl Van Sixx

But French voters placed their hopes in Hollande because they believed that he represented an alternative to austerity. Once he inevitably betrays them, hopefully the conclusions they'll draw will lead to a surge in support for Jean-Luc Melanchon and the Left Front.

Not really. We voted mainly for Hollande because we were fed up with Sarkozy and his minions.
JL Melanchon and the left front score at the election were very very low, if there is any surge somewhere it will be with the FN ( National Front ). IMO.

[hippie_hunter]

Originally Posted by Monsieur Xavier

Not really. We voted mainly for Hollande because we were fed up with Sarkozy and his minions.
JL Melanchon and the left front score at the election were very very low, if there is any surge somewhere it will be with the FN ( National Front ). IMO.

That's the impression I got. I think that Sarkozy would have lost even without the Eurozone Crisis and the Age of Austerity.

[Paradoxium]

Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldN...nnel=0&sp=true

France's new Socialist government is planning to ramp up the cost of laying off workers for companies in the coming months, its labour minister said on Thursday after data showed the jobless rate hit the highest level this century at 10 percent.

"The main idea is to make layoffs so expensive for companies that it's not worth it," Sapin said in an interview with France Info radio.

"It's not a question of sanctions, but workers have to have compensation at the right level," he said.

Industry Minister Arnaud Montebourg is also planning legislation that would force companies to sell plants they want to get rid of at market prices to avoid closures and job losses.

A blogger sums it up

1. Mass layoffs will occur before the law passes.
2. Companies will move any jobs they can overseas.
3. Ongoing, if it's difficult to fire people, companies will not hire them in the first place.
4. Corporate profits will collapse along with the stock market should the need to fire people arise.

Seriously, have these imbeciles ever run a god damn business before. I am not asking for a big corporate conglomerate. Just a small business. **** me, this is not even funny amusing anymore.

[Webfoot Hero]

Originally Posted by Paradoxium

Make Layoffs So Expensive For Companies That It's Not Worth It
http://af.reuters.com/article/worldN...nnel=0&sp=true

A blogger sums it up



Seriously, have these imbeciles ever run a god damn business before. I am not asking for a big corporate conglomerate. Just a small business. **** me, this is not even funny amusing anymore.

It's stupid that they think a company shouldn't be able to lay people off. Sometimes you have more people than you need to get the job done or the extra people don't warrant working there for the minute increase in profit/production if in turn they have to provide long-term benefits that eat up that profit they make. I've been laid off 2 times and both times I knew it was because the work I was doing could easily be done by others already there and I was low man on the totem pole since I was the new guy. It sucks but it's all part of running a business.

[Paradoxium]

It's like horse carriages to cars. Ice houses to refrigerators. You have new emerging industries needing to take the risk to create new opportunities. Job markets are incredibly dynamic. Adjustments need to be made macro and micro wise. Now you make firing difficult, you also punish entrepreneurs. They already take incredible risks with the markets as it is, adding more to it, won't help. This has got to be one of the most assine policy I have ever seen in a long time.

Well if they are stupid enough to go through with this, it might be an opportunity. Learn French because there will be a lot of French companies outsourcing after this.

[Kelly]

*sighs*...... Obama is going to be best friends with the new French President....they will probably have a bromance.

[Paradoxium]

Euro fears boost virtual currency Bitcoin

[hippie_hunter]

The results from the new Greek elections have come in:

1. New Democracy has come in first with 30.37% of the vote, an increase from 18.85% in the last set of elections. They will receive 131 seats.

2. SYRIZA has come in a solid second place with 26.16% of the vote, an increase from 16.78% in the last round. They will receive 69 seats.

3. PASOK has come in third with 12.72%, a decrease from 13.18% in the last round. they will receive 34 seats. PASOK will be New Democracy's coalition partner that will allow them to form a new government that will adhere to the terms of Greece's bailout deal.

4. Independent Greeks came in fourth with 7.45%, a decrease from 10.6%. They will receive 20 seats.

5. Golden Dawn is in fifth with 6.96% of the vote. Roughly the same amount as last time, they will receive 18 seats.

6. The Democratic Left is in sixth with 6.04% of the vote, again, roughly the same amount as last time, they will receive 16 seats.

7. The Communist Party has come in seventh with 4.45%, a decrease from 8.48% last time. They will receive 12 seats.

[Kelly]

I guess the youngsters didn't get home in time to vote....