The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[PokeJ]

I've watched an interview where Feige talked about a 5th film. With 4 of them being Thor 2, The Avengers 2, Captain America 2, and Iron Man 3. What would be the 5th film? Any speculation on this?

[Joeyjojo72]

Howard the Duck reboot. No doubt.

Live action with a traditionally animated Howard ala Pete's Dragon.

[LuisTX85]

I'm hoping for Dr.Strange or Black Panther But I'm guessing Ant-Man..Which would also be great and the Pyms should have been in the MCU anyway!

[dony2012]

Originally Posted by Docker2.0

This is the problem I have with DC doing that: they have way to many people playing certain characters which is why I think is one of the reasons GL failed. There were like a thousand Lanterns which didn't make Hal feel unique. It's the same thing with Flash, and a couple of other characters. The only characters they have really established and played up are Batman and Superman. If you do a JLA movie and branch out, people will just see suits and feel like WTF? Look at Watchmen. I liked it because I'm a comic geek but the GA doesn't. When GL came out, the thing i heard most from noncomic fans is wasn't GL black? That's why I think building up to a JLA would be the best thing.

And I wasn't saying rushing a JLA is a smart move but I can guarantee it's going to be the move that WB will do. You are going to start to hear that drum beat around the end of summer. Book it.

There's really no problem in adapting DC characters to the big screen.

They just need to think outside the box, you know?

For example: if a character suck, don't use her.

I mean, Aquaman suck, but if you want to use him why not use Kaldur from the Young Justice cartoon?

If they'll ever make an Aquaman movie he should be Aquaman, not that loser king that only talk to fishes. He only has to function as the King of Atlantis.

Kaldur will be perfect! With Black Manta* (his father) as Darth Vader and him as Luke Skywalker! It could be Star Wars under water!

*And don't call him Black Manta. That's a dumb name.



And if they'll make a movie about Flash... they shouldn't make him a cop.


Make him an ex-cop that is now volunteer for experiments in Bruce Wayne company and his powers will come from his suit. And make his suit less ridiculous.

Things like that.

[Nemesis Prime]

Originally Posted by carlos rosales

there is no way it will reach 2 billion, i can see it reaching 1.7B though, but it might fall, at the least it will get around 1.4B

I disagree. If TA finishes close to $2B, say $1.7B, Disney can re-release it during the slower time of the year and get enough money to push it past $2B. Since this movie has been breaking records left and right I won't ever bet against it breaking even more down the road.

[Joeyjojo72]

Okay after the last post my Howard the Duck idea seems less ridiculous.

Way to steal my thunder.

[The Ironstar]

Originally Posted by RealIrOnMaN

If only you knew how happy everyone is with the results and the overall presence (both Marvel and especially Disney), that the movie has around the world. Promoting this movie was a blast, to say the least! The marketing was spot on and did what was right for almost everyone (even though some of the posters look too Photoshoppy). It's motivating and really essential that from now on almost everyone became invested in MCU and shows a great interest in the upcoming new Phase 2-related films. It's very exciting when you have not only the devoted and fantastic Marvel fan-base on your side, but also a general audience (along with so-called fans on Tumblr). Really gets things going, if you ask me) 7 years in the making - 2 years of planning the script (thanks to the genius of Joss Whedon) and in the end, you get one of the best MCU and comic book movies ever!

Here's hoping to see the Black Panther,Captain Mar-vell,Ant/Giantman & Wasp,Gamora and The original Drax being created by Chronos.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Spider-Fan

I think he will get that. SHIELD likely will be his supporting cast (giving him Fury, Widow, and Hawkeye to add to his bankability), plus the "man out of time" angle will get more play. I imagine his fights will get more imaginitive over time, as well.

Yeah, if Cap is being made like it is a SHIELD movie, with BW, Hawkeye, Fury, and Hill, I think it could really help him immensely. But I want them to redesign Cap's costume, and to really put the "super" in the Super Soldier serum that is running through his veins. He still needs to be faster, stronger, and more agile than he was portrayed in TA. Hopefully next time they will figure out what to do.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by dony2012

There's really no problem in adapting DC characters to the big screen.

They just need to think outside the box, you know?

For example: if a character suck, don't use her.

I mean, Aquaman suck, but if you want to use him why not use Kaldur from the Young Justice cartoon?

If they'll ever make an Aquaman movie he should be Aquaman, not that loser king that only talk to fishes. He only has to function as the King of Atlantis.

Kaldur will be perfect! With Black Manta* (his father) as Darth Vader and him as Luke Skywalker! It could be Star Wars under water!

*And don't call him Black Manta. That's a dumb name.



And if they'll make a movie about Flash... they shouldn't make him a cop.


Make him an ex-cop that is now volunteer for experiments in Bruce Wayne company and his powers will come from his suit. And make his suit less ridiculous.

Things like that.

If WB really wants to build toward a JLA movie, they need someone like Feige who can oversee and make sure the quality of their DC superhero movies are more tightly controlled. Both SR and GL have had runaway budget (each well over 200+ million), and the profit generated weren't enough to even cover the cost making them in the first place. And right now they pretty much just gave the rein to Chris Nolan to not just direct but overseeing MOS, which imo isn't the best option simply because Nolan isn't interested in the long-term success of the DC movies. They'll need to get someone who is both knowledge about DC universe but also have the experience of filmmaking and/or producing to ensure that the movies will turn out fine. WB's decision-making so far is still very much focused on short-term success, nothing more.

[Nemesis Prime]

Originally Posted by Raiden

If WB really wants to build toward a JLA movie, they need someone like Feige who can oversee and make sure the quality of their DC superhero movies are more tightly controlled. Both SR and GL have had runaway budget (each well over 200+ million), and the profit generated weren't enough to even cover the cost making them in the first place. And right now they pretty much just gave the rein to Chris Nolan to not just direct but overseeing MOS, which imo isn't the best option simply because Nolan isn't interested in the long-term success of the DC movies. They'll need to get someone who is both knowledge about DC universe but also have the experience of filmmaking and/or producing to ensure that the movies will turn out fine. WB's decision-making so far is still very much focused on short-term success, nothing more.

^Agree. WB is so shortsighted that they gave the control of their most successful superhero franchises over to a guy who's not well versed in comic books, isn't interested in cross-verse, and who won't stick around long enough to see the JL movie if there's a plan for it. Nolan is going to fulfill his obligations to WB and move on, and the person who will pick up the pieces after his departure is anybody's guess.

[TheVileOne]

The competition this month is weak. The Avengers will have no trouble getting to $500 million this month. Dark Shadows is weak competition. Even Battleship is weak competition. Memorial Day weekend is right around the corner and that will give this movie another boost. MIB 3 looks terrible and it's a non-factor at this point. By the time MIB 3 is out, Avengers will have made most of its money anyway.

Now look, I'm sure Battleship might do OK being a big summer spectacle and all, however at the same time it does not have that it factor or appeal that Avengers brought to the table. It's done some decent business overseas but the reviews so far have been terrible. I think it makes about $180-200 million tops in the US.

[Nemesis Prime]

Originally Posted by TheVileOne

Now look, I'm sure Battleship might do OK being a big summer spectacle and all, however at the same time it does not have that it factor or appeal that Avengers brought to the table. It's done some decent business overseas but the reviews so far have been terrible. I think it makes about $180-200 million tops in the US.

After seeing the awful trailer, I think you are overly optimistic. I'd be surprised if it reaches $150 mil. I predict a huge drop off in the 2nd week, with most of the people who wants a popcorn summer movie opting to see The Avengers again rather than a subpar alien invasion movie with cgi straight out of TF and Rhianna as one of its main selling points. Meh.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by TheVileOne

The competition this month is weak. The Avengers will have no trouble getting to $500 million this month. Dark Shadows is weak competition. Even Battleship is weak competition. Memorial Day weekend is right around the corner and that will give this movie another boost. MIB 3 looks terrible and it's a non-factor at this point. By the time MIB 3 is out, Avengers will have made most of its money anyway.

Now look, I'm sure Battleship might do OK being a big summer spectacle and all, however at the same time it does not have that it factor or appeal that Avengers brought to the table. It's done some decent business overseas but the reviews so far have been terrible. I think it makes about $180-200 million tops in the US.

One of the knocks against Battleship (aside from TF ripoff) is that the alien invasion angle has already been done, and done better by The Avengers. People will have seen TA already, and I'm sure they'll opt to see that again over one that is very blatantly trying to pass itself off as Transformers 4.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by Nemesis Prime

I disagree. If TA finishes close to $2B, say $1.7B, Disney can re-release it during the slower time of the year and get enough money to push it past $2B. Since this movie has been breaking records left and right I won't ever bet against it breaking even more down the road.

Well shouldn't we be restricting it to its initial run. Any popular movie can have re-release and earn more money.

[TheVileOne]

$1.5 billion is very possible at this point worldwide IMHO.

[Keyser Soze]

Originally Posted by Nemesis Prime

^Agree. WB is so shortsighted that they gave the control of their most successful superhero franchises over to a guy who's not well versed in comic books, isn't interested in cross-verse, and who won't stick around long enough to see the JL movie if there's a plan for it. Nolan is going to fulfill his obligations to WB and move on, and the person who will pick up the pieces after his departure is anybody's guess.

You're talking like Nolan has committed untold damage to the Batman franchise, and WB will somehow have to recover after his exit, or "pick up the pieces". Batman is one of the most successful superhero franchises ever again largely thanks to the work Nolan has done on his films. Burton's films were huge, yes, but after the acts of cinematic vandalism perpetrated by Schumacher, the Batman name couldn't draw flies. Batman Begins brought credibility back to the Batman franchise, and The Dark Knight took it to greater heights than ever seen before. I imagine WB are very happy that they were so shortsighted.

Between his Batman franchise and Inception too, their relationship has been very mutually beneficial for both Nolan and WB. And let's not forget that even after his trilogy wraps, the word is that Nolan will executive produce the new Batman franchise that follows, so WB are obviously keen to maintain his involvement, and Nolan seems satisfied to find new obligations to fulfill in this world.

[CaptainCraig]

If you were of the 31 people who voted 1Billion as it's final total are you shocked(and surprised) to find out you were WRONG!!
LOL!!

This movie is a beast, I thought $800m WW was a brave predict!!
It's doing better than my wildest imagining and apparently of the $1 billion predictors!!!

[chiefchirpa]

Originally Posted by dony2012

There's really no problem in adapting DC characters to the big screen.

They just need to think outside the box, you know?

For example: if a character suck, don't use her.

I mean, Aquaman suck, but if you want to use him why not use Kaldur from the Young Justice cartoon?

If they'll ever make an Aquaman movie he should be Aquaman, not that loser king that only talk to fishes. He only has to function as the King of Atlantis.

Kaldur will be perfect! With Black Manta* (his father) as Darth Vader and him as Luke Skywalker! It could be Star Wars under water!

*And don't call him Black Manta. That's a dumb name.



And if they'll make a movie about Flash... they shouldn't make him a cop.


Make him an ex-cop that is now volunteer for experiments in Bruce Wayne company and his powers will come from his suit. And make his suit less ridiculous.

Things like that.

I guess the CGI could work for aquatic hero movies, but the cost of doing them does not. Then there is the issue of having actors talk underwater. Blub, blub, blub complete with air bubbles when they speak.

Obviously, DC has a shortlist of characters to do before Aquaman becomes viable. The priority to do Namor is way back behind Ant Man, Black Panther, Dr Strange, Iron Fist and many more.

[Keyser Soze]

Hollywood has a storied history of "difficult pictures on water".

[Pond]

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

Hollywood has a storied history of "difficult pictures on water".

Yeah. Bruce...

[Nemesis Prime]

Originally Posted by Keyser Soze

You're talking like Nolan has committed untold damage to the Batman franchise, and WB will somehow have to recover after his exit, or "pick up the pieces". Batman is one of the most successful superhero franchises ever again largely thanks to the work Nolan has done on his films. Burton's films were huge, yes, but after the acts of cinematic vandalism perpetrated by Schumacher, the Batman name couldn't draw flies. Batman Begins brought credibility back to the Batman franchise, and The Dark Knight took it to greater heights than ever seen before. I imagine WB are very happy that they were so shortsighted.

Between his Batman franchise and Inception too, their relationship has been very mutually beneficial for both Nolan and WB. And let's not forget that even after his trilogy wraps, the word is that Nolan will executive produce the new Batman franchise that follows, so WB are obviously keen to maintain his involvement, and Nolan seems satisfied to find new obligations to fulfill in this world.

By "picking up the pieces" I mean who'll take over the superhero genre at WB after Nolan finally wraps it up and leave? I don't think Nolan will stay at WB forever and there might not be another guy who can translate the superhero to the big screens better than Nolan. DC needs a guy like Feige, who can oversee the various superhero movies and have the control and the vision to see it through. If Nolan can be that guy than TA may have some competition afterall. But as of now TA is the undisputed king of superhero movie (yes I foresee it passing TDK at the domestic BO chart eventually)

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by matrix_ghost

Probably cause in most european countries , the competition just ended.

At this stage the media is usually going crazy about potential injuries to top stars like Rooney & Beckham (in the past). If people are playing well there is always speculation about their chances of making the squad and what our team will be. It's just weird how quiet they are on it at the moment. I think it's got something to do with the last World Cup being the most boring tournament in living memory.

[Tony Stark]

What an incredible achievement. There were alot of naysayers on this film before it was released. I remember one person on the BOT forums who said it wouldn't gross as much as TASM, lol!

But seriously, just an incredible achievement, and every director of the Marvel Studios films deserves credit for this, for helping forge these great characters, and of course a special thanks to Joss Whedon for pulling off the seemingly impossible.

From the actors to the producers to everyone working on these films, there is no question this is more than just a successful film this type of business is about cultural awareness, the type of which we'll be talking about for years to come.

So much for Superhero fatigue!

[warhorse78]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

What an incredible achievement. There were alot of naysayers on this film before it was released. I remember one person on the BOT forums who said it wouldn't gross as much as TASM, lol!

But seriously, just an incredible achievement, and every director of the Marvel Studios films deserves credit for this, for helping forge these great characters, and of course a special thanks to Joss Whedon for pulling off the seemingly impossible.

From the actors to the producers to everyone working on these films, there is no question this is more than just a successful film this type of business is about cultural awareness, the type of which we'll be talking about for years to come.

So much for Superhero fatigue!

Well, I wouldn't gloat just yet. Who knows the numbers TASM and TDKR might bring in. Perhaps, with inflation, 3D/IMAX premium prices, perhaps what we see at the moment as incredible, just might the beginning of a trend in BO. Just last year, we had 3 billionaire movies, something that was supposed to be exclusive. Perhaps the club is not that exclusive anymore.

[Gamma Burst]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

What an incredible achievement. There were alot of naysayers on this film before it was released. I remember one person on the BOT forums who said it wouldn't gross as much as TASM, lol!

But seriously, just an incredible achievement, and every director of the Marvel Studios films deserves credit for this, for helping forge these great characters, and of course a special thanks to Joss Whedon for pulling off the seemingly impossible.

From the actors to the producers to everyone working on these films, there is no question this is more than just a successful film this type of business is about cultural awareness, the type of which we'll be talking about for years to come.

So much for Superhero fatigue!

Yeah, can't believe how successful it became.
Next goal: $1.5B!