2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 3

[Doctor Jones]

Originally Posted by DACrowe

Cabin in the Woods was crap?

I bet is better remembered in one year's time than SWATH. CITW is a cult classic. SWATH may be ah it, but I doubt it's going to be that instantly memorable.

I wouldn't go as far to classify it as a cult classic yet. It hasn't been out for very long.

[Darthkush]

I realize we're only a month into the summer season but with each week i'm beginning to think the summer as a whole will underperform and that we'll just have a small handful of "big" hits with eveything else doing OK or outright not doing well. Obviously, Avengers is huge but everything else this month has either bombed or underperformed by a huge margin. I hope that trend doesn't continue but other than Dark Knight Rises I'm starting to feel like nothing else is gonna be a huge 300 plus grosser. I think Brave is a pretty safe bet to make 200 but other than that, there's no more real sure things is there?

Also, i want to say that none of this has anything to do with quality. I think this is gonna be an amazing summer quality wise, i'm just not sure we're gonna see huge monster hits. Even the underperforming flicks(like mib3 and dark shadows) i've personally enjoyed.

[terry78]

A lot of these flicks making billions are usually based on franchises with massive fanbases already in play. Or they become that one anomaly flick that suddenly becomes the one you have to see or you're out of the loop.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Darthkush

I realize we're only a month into the summer season but with each week i'm beginning to think the summer as a whole will underperform and that we'll just have a small handful of "big" hits with eveything else doing OK or outright not doing well. Obviously, Avengers is huge but everything else this month has either bombed or underperformed by a huge margin. I hope that trend doesn't continue but other than Dark Knight Rises I'm starting to feel like nothing else is gonna be a huge 300 plus grosser. I think Brave is a pretty safe bet to make 200 but other than that, there's no more real sure things is there?

Also, i want to say that none of this has anything to do with quality. I think this is gonna be an amazing summer quality wise, i'm just not sure we're gonna see huge monster hits. Even the underperforming flicks(like mib3 and dark shadows) i've personally enjoyed.

I think it is too early to make a final conclusion regarding moviegoers' new habit, but I think it is clear for now that due to the economy and people's shrinking wallet, they are more inclined to see less movies, and they don't seemed to like to take chances on movies they aren't sure about. It could be the reason why they're staying away from movies such as DS, Battleship, and even MIB3.

[Infinity9999x]

Also, I wouldn't say MIB3 underperformed by a huge margin. It's the sequel to a film that came out ten years ago, and wasn't all that well recieved. It did solid buisness. Was anyone really expecting it to be huge? I'm not surprised by that result at all.

[Shifty]

Box Office Bomb
Box Office Disappointment
Not Released Yet
Box Office Success
Blockbuster

A film can be a disappointment temporarily, depends on the legs of the film and if it can earn back twice its production budget plus marketing. MIB may have cost $300 million with reshoots but Sony won't turn a profit unless it grosses over $700 million since half or part of the gross goes to the theatre chains.

Warner Bros.
Dark Shadows 5/11/12
Chernobyl Diaries 5/25/12
Rock of Ages 6/15/12
Magic Mike 6/29/12
The Dark Knight Rises 7/20/12
The Campaign 8/10/12
The Apparition 8/24/12

Buena Vista Pictures (Disney)
The Avengers 05/04/12
Brave 6/22/12
People Like Us 6/29/12
The Odd Life of Timothy Green 8/15/12
The Possession 8/31/12

Universal
Battleship 5/18/12
Snow White and the Huntsman 6/1/12
Ted 6/29/12
Savages 7/6/12
The Bourne Legacy 8/3/12

20th Century Fox
Prometheus 6/8/12
Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter 6/22/12
Ice Age: Continental Drift 7/13/12
The Watch 7/27/12
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days 8/3/12

Columbia Pictures / TriStar
MIB 3 5/25/12
That's My Boy 6/15/12
The Amazing Spider-Man 7/3/12
Total Recall (2012) 8/3/12
Hope Springs 8/10/12
Sparkle 8/17/12
Premium Rush 8/24/12

Paramount Pictures / Dreamworks Animation
The Dictator 5/16/12
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted 6/8/12
G.I. Joe: Retaliation 6/29/12
Katy Perry: Part of Me 7/5/12

Weinstein / Dimension Films
The Intouchables 5/25/12
Piranha 3DD 6/1/12
Easy Money (2012) 7/27/12
Lawless 8/31/12

Lionsgate
Girl in Progress 5/11/12
What to Expect When You're Expecting 5/18/12
Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection 6/29/12
The Expendables 2 8/17/12

Focus Features
Moonrise Kingdom 5/25/12
Seeking a Friend for the End of the World 6/22/12
ParaNorman 8/17/12

Fox Searchlight
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel 5/4/12
Lola Versus 6/8/12
Beasts of the Southern Wild 6/27/12
Ruby Sparks 7/25/12

[superion]

The three superhero movies and the three animated movies will be the biggest hits of the summer. I don't see anything else on that list that will break out big.

May belonged to the Avengers and everything else underperformed though MIB3 did OK.

June looks like the month of Snow, White, Prometheus, Madagascar and Brave.

July and August will belong to Spderman, Batman and the 4th Ice Age. The DKR will the last big film of the summer. I don't expect much from the Total Recall remake or the Bourne reboot. The Expendables sequel and the Watch may do OK but I doubt either will get close to $200 million domestically.

The battle between Brave, Madagascar and Ice Age is going to be the most interesting battle of the summer to see who finishes as the top animated movie of the summer. The last Ice Age made nearly $900 million WW and the last Madagascar nearly $700 million WW. Hopefully Brave finishes on top because I have never really liked the Ice Age and Madagascar movies.

[DACrowe]

Originally Posted by terry78

Snow White/Huntsman is basically going for a, I hate to even use the term anymore without it becoming a parody, "grounded" type thing where all the stuff that happens in the fairy tale looks to be kind of explained in a sense, like why she's actually fairer, what the evil queen's real goals are aside from just being pretty, etc.

But if it's inner-beauty how would the evil Queen be the fairest if she knocks off Snow White? Like the implication is that the Queen is #2 to Snow White's #1 and the queen has to get rid of the competition. Now, if it's about inner-beauty (when it's clear that the queen is rotten to her core) that either means it's a massive plot hole or that is one ****ed up kingdom when Charlize Theron's child-eating tyrant is the second nicest person in the realm!

Just saying.

[DACrowe]

Originally Posted by Darthkush

I realize we're only a month into the summer season but with each week i'm beginning to think the summer as a whole will underperform and that we'll just have a small handful of "big" hits with eveything else doing OK or outright not doing well. Obviously, Avengers is huge but everything else this month has either bombed or underperformed by a huge margin. I hope that trend doesn't continue but other than Dark Knight Rises I'm starting to feel like nothing else is gonna be a huge 300 plus grosser. I think Brave is a pretty safe bet to make 200 but other than that, there's no more real sure things is there?

Also, i want to say that none of this has anything to do with quality. I think this is gonna be an amazing summer quality wise, i'm just not sure we're gonna see huge monster hits. Even the underperforming flicks(like mib3 and dark shadows) i've personally enjoyed.

Brave should do very well ($250 million domestic?) if not even better because families will be starved for quality. I also think SWATH And Prometheus both have the chance to do well relative to their genres (SWATH a PG-13 action/fantasy franchise starter, Prometheus an R-rated sci-fi thriller). But a mega hit? TDKR may be it, but I still suspect Brave crossing $250 would qualify.

TASM is going to underperform (who knows, it could even bomb in a summer like this?) Abraham Lincoln: Vampire Hunter has bomb written all over it. Also, I expect The Bourne Legacy and Total Recall to at least underperform, as well.

[Project862006]

edit

[rayc1971]

avengers is at 523 domestic i think 600 mill domestic is for certain now.

[Gabe99]

Originally Posted by Infinity9999x

Also, I wouldn't say MIB3 underperformed by a huge margin. It's the sequel to a film that came out ten years ago, and wasn't all that well recieved. It did solid buisness. Was anyone really expecting it to be huge? I'm not surprised by that result at all.

From The LA Times:
'Men in Black 3' was no easy sequel to make

The movie comes 10 years after 'MIB2,' with a total cost close to $375 million. The Will Smith and Tommy Lee Jones film has faced a number of challenges.

From Deadline:
SUMMER SLUMP? Will Smith’s ‘MIB3′ Slows To $70M Memorial Weekend; Fifth Major Movie To Disappoint While ‘The Avengers’ Sets New $500M Domestic Speed Record

Originally Posted by NIKKI FINKE

My sources report a single-digit drop from Saturday to Sunday as Sony hoped (right now -8%). So Men In Black 3 domestic projections of $55M three-day weekend and $70M four-day Memorial Holiday may stand. Although rival studios say the numbers are $54.5M/$68M. That’s not anywhere close to the $90M where Hollywood thought this popular franchise could open its threequel, or the $80M which Sony expected. Even not adjusted for the 3D premium, or higher ticket pricesm or inflation, MIB3 couldn’t beat Will Smith’s I Am Legend ($77M in 2007) or Hancock ($62M in 2008). Problem is that MIB3 was very expensive to make.

Originally Posted by NIKKI FINKE

Plus, demonstrating more trouble for Hollywood, overall moviegoing of $190M is down a huge -32% from last year’s record.

[chaseter]

Sony execs are hoping that ASM makes a billion dollars.

[EML420]

The Avengers avenged John Carter maybe just maybe ASM can do something huge but is the MIB 3 situation comparable to John Carters?

[Liam_H]

MIB3 wasn't intended to become another billion dollar franchise from the start. If it was a huge hit there would probably be another one but probably not.

[TheOnlyOmega]

Originally Posted by DACrowe

Cabin in the Woods was crap?

I bet is better remembered in one year's time than SWATH. CITW is a cult classic. SWATH may be ah it, but I doubt it's going to be that instantly memorable.

A movie isn't a cult classic if it got released a month and 16 days ago. Who knows if it will be or not, time will tell.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by EML420

The Avengers avenged John Carter maybe just maybe ASM can do something huge but is the MIB 3 situation comparable to John Carters?

MIB3 should break even just from the box office gross.

John Carter put Disney 150 m in the hole after its crappy run at the box office.

[EML420]

I still cant belive Smiths power at the box office I think his world gross is bigger than domestic.

But Im really curious about Bourne Legacy vs Total Recal I think they got the same weekend and there more or less aiming for the same demographic.

[Liam_H]

Those two movies will just cannibalize each other. I'm surprise one of them hasn't blinked yet.

[EML420]

Lol I love how you put it but I really cant wait for that weekend im looking forward to both movies my self.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by chaseter

Sony execs are hoping that ASM makes a billion dollars.

Right now, it's hard to get a reading on how good or bad ASM will do at the box office. Spider-Man (like Superman and Batman) is a household name with instant recognition from even the casual moviegoers, but this movie is a reboot and made not too long before the last Raimi Spider-Man movie. The movie will be telling the origin (again), albeit with some new revision from the comics and Raimi plot. And in a summer with such much higher competition in the later part of the summer (TDKR), ASM might not have such an easy ride in its theatrical run. I can't say that it will make 1 billion WW, and in fact I would say that it won't.

[MessiahDecoy123]

I will promise you ASM will make 1 billion.

250 m domestic and 750 overseas is the floor.

With 300+ m DOM and 800+ m OS being much more likely.

Best 3D since Avatar, July 4th opening with limited competition, A-list superhero who is popular with kids and adults, likely far better than SM3, spilling over with iconic Spider-man imagery, etc

July 3rd, the haters will lose!

[Liam_H]

You don't often hear people say $1 billion is the floor. But considering how THG and TA performed I'm gonna ease off prognosticating for a bit.

[Parker Wayne]

Originally Posted by rayc1971

how come twilight makes mega boxoffice if kristen is so hated? cabin in the woods was crap thor and avengers will help hemsworth in this movie its more of a action adventure flick.

I would explain but I feel any kind of sense would be lost upon you.

[DACrowe]

Originally Posted by chaseter

Sony execs are hoping that ASM makes a billion dollars.

I could see it doing really well overseas actually. Like $400 million or even $500 million. But not as good as The Avengers or even Spider-Man 3 (though 3D inflation may make it match SM3's international numbers). However, even if it did outrageously well and made, say, $700 million overseas, it'd still not reach $1 billion. Not when its domestic take will have to struggle to hit $200 million (if that).

I could be eating crow in a month, month and a half's time, but I doubt it.