The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Whiskey Tango]

Originally Posted by Brian Braddock

Undoubtedly - but I'm wondering why the focus on U.S. domestic though? This isnt just aimed at you, I'm just a bit non-plussed that the worldwide figure doesnt seem to get as much recognition on here?

Is it really all about domestic?

Originally Posted by flickchick85

It's my understanding that the studio gets a much smaller chunk of the overseas gross, so for them, domestic is where it's at.

To elaborate further -

According to the book The Hollywood Economist by Edward Jay Epstein, studios take in about 40 percent of the revenue from overseas release — and after expenses, they're lucky if they take in 15 percent of that number.

Domestic revenue just counts for a lot more than overseas revenue, says David Mumpower with Box Office Prophets:

The reason for this is simple. Collecting revenues abroad is a trickier proposition since the dollar fluctuates against foreign currencies. There are also tariffs from these governments in place in order to keep as much money as possible from leaving their countries and going abroad, which is an understandable practice. While the global conglomerates such as Fox, Disney and Time-Warner that run major Hollywood studios can secure sweetheart deals with various local governments, it doesn't happen for each film. As such, international box office revenue is much less reliable than in North America.

http://io9.com/5747305/how-much-mone...-be-profitable

[Caboose]

Well there's also this:
"Only two of eight major movies released last month are clearly destined to make a profit — and one of them is, surprise!, Marvel’s The Avengers — according to SNL Kagan’s latest monthly tally. The firm says that The Avengers is likely to generate more than $2B in revenues from all sources (excluding merchandise sales) on total costs of $473.2M. The 4.24 ratio of expected revenues over costs is well above the 1.75 threshold that Kagan says establishes a film as clearly profitable. To account for revenue splits, expenses and variables that analysts can’t determine, the firm classifies films with a ratio of less than 1.75 but more than 1.40 as being in a gray area while those below 1.40 are deemed probably unprofitable."

So, The Avengers is profitable as all hell.

[Pond]

I really hope Joss profits from this in more than just the money he got.

And i really hope they convince him to come back...

[spider-neil]

Originally Posted by Caboose

Well there's also this:
"Only two of eight major movies released last month are clearly destined to make a profit — and one of them is, surprise!, Marvel’s The Avengers — according to SNL Kagan’s latest monthly tally. The firm says that The Avengers is likely to generate more than $2B in revenues from all sources (excluding merchandise sales) on total costs of $473.2M. The 4.24 ratio of expected revenues over costs is well above the 1.75 threshold that Kagan says establishes a film as clearly profitable. To account for revenue splits, expenses and variables that analysts can’t determine, the firm classifies films with a ratio of less than 1.75 but more than 1.40 as being in a gray area while those below 1.40 are deemed probably unprofitable."

So, The Avengers is profitable as all hell.

Does Downey get a share of the profits?

[eddy]

Wasn't there that story a few weeks back about him getting 50 million from profit sharing?

I was surprised to not see him on the list of highest paid actors this year. I think Leo topped the list.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Pond

I really hope Joss profits from this in more than just the money he got.

And i really hope they convince him to come back...

I agree. I personally don't believe that The Avengers could've become this 1.4 billion juggarnaut if it weren't for Whedon's story and direction. Yes, it would've been big regardless of Whedon's involvement, but I think without him TA may not have made enough to surpass TDK's gross WW. I think it is imperative that they get Whedon back for not just TA2, but make sure he would direct all three films in the trilogy. It would be the difference between a cohesive trilogy like Nolan's Batman series or the uneven X-Men trilogy.

[JeetKuneDo]

Man...count me among the "foolish". I expected under $400 mil domestic and predicted $900 ww in this thread. (and that was my optimistic predict...I really though $800m was the real result)

This is crazy....$600m....wow....

[Octavias]

It was just a perfect popcorn-blockbuster lighter comic movie. It was chalk full of action, Wasnt too deep but had a good plot. It had a lot of funny moments that werent too forced. It wasnt so tied up with comic lore that non comic fans would be lost but held true enough to them that fans could appriciate it. A lot of different types of people could enjoy it.

I cant wait for TDKR. I fully expect it will be an awesome, deep movie. I think it may be darker and less humorous so even if it is far more solid on the depth of the story, it may not have as broad appeal worldwide and may not reach these numbers.

You have to give credit to Marvel and Wheedon for making a true universal appeal blockbuster with this movie...

[Iceman]

I think Avengers 2 is going to be much better. For one it won't have crappy Chitauri wasting screen time/space.

[04nbod]

Weird how The Avengers continues to have a great per theatre average yet movies packing theatres less continue to have more showings.

[Stark Bauer]

TA will leapfrog Rock of Ages and Thats My Boy more movies this weekend. It will probably leap frog Prometheus and Snow White and Thor next week when Spidey comes out.

It is surreal to see it continue to make money after hitting 600. I felt that at 600 it should stop. Seeing it hit 610 and possibly 620 makes my jaw drop further.

[Iceman]

$4.25m est weekend -41.3%


Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic: $606,298,000 41.9%
+ Foreign: $841,100,000 58.1%
= Worldwide: $1,447,398,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=avengers11.htm

[Brian Braddock]

Think it's pretty safe to say that this movie has been a hit then.

[Tymminator]

Originally Posted by Stark Bauer

TA will leapfrog Rock of Ages and Thats My Boy more movies this weekend. It will probably leap frog Prometheus and Snow White and Thor next week when Spidey comes out.

It is surreal to see it continue to make money after hitting 600. I felt that at 600 it should stop. Seeing it hit 610 and possibly 620 makes my jaw drop further.

"Thor"?

[AvengeME]

Originally Posted by Tymminator

"Thor"?

Huntsman = Thor in fairy tale land.

[Jon Hex]

Seems The Amazing Spider-man is doing great in Asia.
Good, hope that bodes well for it's Domestic opening.

[Vartha]

Originally Posted by Brian Braddock

Think it's pretty safe to say that this movie has been a hit then.

...no....REALLY?

[Paladin-Hoss]

Spidey is also making big waves outside the U.S currently, think it'll match Avengers foreign B.O?

[Webfoot Hero]

Originally Posted by Paladin-Hoss

Spidey is also making big waves outside the U.S currently, think it'll match Avengers foreign B.O?

He's really popular in Asia so TASM will do well there. It may not do well elsewhere in the foreign markets but if WOM spreads good things about it then anything is possible.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Paladin-Hoss

Spidey is also making big waves outside the U.S currently, think it'll match Avengers foreign B.O?

What are ASM's international numbers? I haven't seen the figures yet (haven't been looking). Over at the boxoffice.com forums some loonies are predicting that ASM will bomb domestically, but I don't see that happening. It won't be as big as the previous installments, I think, but no way will it crap out completely.


ASM's rating on RT stands at 79% (55 fresh, 16 rotten), but that should have an asterisk behind it because the top critics rating is 89% (8 fresh, 1 rotten). The rating has definitely been dragged down by negative reviews from genre-centric sites (the fanboy critics) and a few of the "some guy with a blog" reviewers who barely rate as legit. The good reviews aren't raves, for the most part, but they are good enough.

[Paladin-Hoss]

^^ yeah...there's no way in hell that Spidey is going to flop! unless it's directed by Uwe Boll. And even then, it will still have a massive opening. There's just so much faith on the character because the previous movies were pretty damn good.

[TheVileOne]

So where does it top off in its initial US run?

$615 million? Maybe $620 million?

[Mysteryman]

$638 million.
Thats me thinking optimistically!

[DyeLorean]

Today I went to my 4th and final viewing, with my dad this time. I have finished my theatrical contribution to this film.
Funny thing, sometimes I go alone but I haven't seen Avengers by myself, always went with different groups of people.

[TheVileOne]

So when does it finally get released in Japan?