The Avengers Box-Office Prediction Thread - Part 7

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Iceman

I don't think any original films that we currently know about will beat Avenger's record. There's no way they can build enough hype. All the superhero sequels outside of Batman which will be finished for a while after this weekend are smaller in nature and the biggest ones have all been done before (not as fresh conceptually as Avengers was). The Hobbit is not LOTR, has less hype than it should have at this stage and by its nature is likely to have a more balanced than frontloaded gross. Twilight will always have massive midnights & opening days but won't have enough on the Sundays to finish anywhere close.

Avengers already utilised the 3D boost about as much as it could so other films can match it but only a film that actually does something special technologically with the 3D like Avatar is likely to improve on that front. The OW record will of course go sooner or later but I don't think it will fall to any of the films or next sequels we currently know about.

I agree. The biggest competition against The Avengers are Spider-Man and Batman, with the former's reboot not quite capturing the same lightning in a bottle as the original, and the latter's reboot will probably not going to succeed as well as Nolan's creations. I think if Marvel handles their intermittent movies well, TA should have no problem staying at the top.

[thalidomide]

I sure hope so.

[El Payaso]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

From on the ground theater reports for at least today it seems that pretty much every showing is still being sold-out.

I'm sure the theater of the shooting won't be packed exactly.

[warriorking]

Looks Like Fridays BO numbers for TDKR was around 77 Million, looks like the Avengers will keep the record....Also some on the other boards are begining to use the shooting as the reason it won't break the record.. Sorry but the shooting will have had little or no effect on the final OW outcome...Although I liked the TDKR I have no desire to go and see it again...

[El Payaso]

Originally Posted by warriorking

Looks Like Fridays BO numbers for TDKR was around 77 Million, looks like the Avengers will keep the record....Also some on the other boards are begining to use the shooting as the reason it won't break the record.. Sorry but the shooting will have had little or no effect on the final OW outcome...Although I liked the TDKR I have no desire to go and see it again...

Funny, Ledger's death was used as the excuse for TDK making so much.

[warriorking]

I think its going to come in around 190 Million, nothing to sneeze at but well short of the Avengers...It's a good summer for us as well as Marvel and DC.....Right now I am counting down to the BluRay release of the Avengers...

[JP]

Originally Posted by warriorking

Looks Like Fridays BO numbers for TDKR was around 77 Million, looks like the Avengers will keep the record....Also some on the other boards are begining to use the shooting as the reason it won't break the record.. Sorry but the shooting will have had little or no effect on the final OW outcome...Although I liked the TDKR I have no desire to go and see it again...

Of course the shooting has effected it. Before the weekend it was estimated by most sites to make north of $180 million. Now it'll gone down to $170 million. Theater stocks are down as well.

[warriorking]

I think the other sites were getting caught up in the hype, mostly do to the front loading of ticket sales..In the end it will be shown that the shooting mattered very little.....Avengers started strong and just kept growing as the weekend proceeded, TDKR started out strong with the midnight crowds and leveled off to the normal prediction from earlier in the year...Its just the nature of the film and its audience...Its still going to beat TDK by a wide margin but really had no chance of surpasing TA.....

[atomicbattery]

Originally Posted by warriorking

Looks Like Fridays BO numbers for TDKR was around 77 Million, looks like the Avengers will keep the record....Also some on the other boards are begining to use the shooting as the reason it won't break the record.. Sorry but the shooting will have had little or no effect on the final OW outcome...Although I liked the TDKR I have no desire to go and see it again...

This is completely wrong.
Today's Wall Street Journal already sites anectdotal evidence of the negative effect on attendance ('Film Studio Faces Delicate Balance', page one).
Also, Warners has suspended advertising. The entire marketing machine has gone silent. Avengers opening weekend was attended by immersive advertising, including non-stop promotion on the Disney affiliates (that Friday, ESPN radio was nearly as much about going to see Avengers- and how much the various hosts' wives also wanted to see it- as it was about sports).
This tragedy has absolutely had a negative effect on box-office.

[Juicy J]

Look I concede to the point that this has negatively effected the box office, but not by a huge margin. Anyone who was already going to see the movie this weekend to begin with won't be put off by the shootings. I don't know a single person who says that the shootings even remotely affected their decision to turn out this weekend.
Granted I'm sure there are some out there but not enough to put a big, serious dent in the BO returns.
And until I see anyone around me skip out on going to the movie because of the tragedy, I'm sticking to that.

[JP]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Look I concede to the point that this has negatively effected the box office, but not by a huge margin. Anyone who was already going to see the movie this weekend to begin with won't be put off by the shootings. I don't know a single person who says that the shootings even remotely affected their decision to turn out this weekend.
Granted I'm sure there are some out there but not enough to put a big, serious dent in the BO returns.
And until I see anyone around me skip out on going to the movie because of the tragedy, I'm sticking to that.

Going from 180-170 is a $10 million dollar loss. That's pretty hefty.

[marcvader]

When you're talking about a movie that will certainly make a cool bil+, 10 million is squat.

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by JP

Going from 180-170 is a $10 million dollar loss. That's pretty hefty.

A 10 million dollar less is pretty large, I will agree to that. But firstly, I'm not convinced that it lost 10 million to begin with. I'm not going to go solely off estimates as I feel they are largely unreliable. Until I see the weekend actuals I don't think you can exactly put a number on how much money the movie lost just yet. My guess is that it will lose 5 million tops. Still a decent size number, but not one to seriously lament over.

[warriorking]

Also keep in mind all the news channels are talking about nothing but TDKR which includes snipets of the film, In no way has Warner lost out on free advertising for the movie....To say they lost 5 to 10 million due to pulling the TV spots or the shooting is wishful thinking.
Anyone who was going to the TDKR has gone or will be going regardless.
As for the Wall street article I take that with a grain of salt, most of their numbers are pulled out of thin air or their butt...As for the TA word of mouth was the major factor in its huge success and explosion during its opening weekend...not 30sec TV spots...

[samsnee]

Trying to guess how much money TDKR has lost due to the tragic events is like trying to guess how much money TDK gained because of Heath Ledger's death.

[El Payaso]

Originally Posted by atomicbattery

This is completely wrong.
Today's Wall Street Journal already sites anectdotal evidence of the negative effect on attendance ('Film Studio Faces Delicate Balance', page one).
Also, Warners has suspended advertising. The entire marketing machine has gone silent. Avengers opening weekend was attended by immersive advertising, including non-stop promotion on the Disney affiliates (that Friday, ESPN radio was nearly as much about going to see Avengers- and how much the various hosts' wives also wanted to see it- as it was about sports).
This tragedy has absolutely had a negative effect on box-office.

Totally. People won't just shake this off and say, 'okay, so let's go and enjoy.' Now, how many will refrain from going, how many will wait untill watching in the safety of their homes and how many will think this movie is cursed is impossible to calculate.

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Look I concede to the point that this has negatively effected the box office, but not by a huge margin. Anyone who was already going to see the movie this weekend to begin with won't be put off by the shootings. I don't know a single person who says that the shootings even remotely affected their decision to turn out this weekend.
Granted I'm sure there are some out there but not enough to put a big, serious dent in the BO returns.
And until I see anyone around me skip out on going to the movie because of the tragedy, I'm sticking to that.

With all due rerspoect, if what you get to see right next to you is the only reality you concede to exist, then this is not a really valid evidence of anything.

We don't have one single clue as to how to calculate what's the effect of this, just that there is one.

Originally Posted by warriorking

Also keep in mind all the news channels are talking about nothing but TDKR which includes snipets of the film, In no way has Warner lost out on free advertising for the movie....To say they lost 5 to 10 million due to pulling the TV spots or the shooting is wishful thinking.
Anyone who was going to the TDKR has gone or will be going regardless.
As for the Wall street article I take that with a grain of salt, most of their numbers are pulled out of thin air or their butt...As for the TA word of mouth was the major factor in its huge success and explosion during its opening weekend...not 30sec TV spots...

So, channels talking of the tragedy equals great advertising for the movie? That's like saying showing shots of a country in war might favour tourism. Probably people will get more impact from the scope of the tragedy than how cool the images are.

Originally Posted by samsnee

Trying to guess how much money TDKR has lost due to the tragic events is like trying to guess how much money TDK gained because of Heath Ledger's death.

That's right. We can only know there is an effect but not how deep it is or it is not.

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by El Payaso

With all due rerspoect, if what you get to see right next to you is the only reality you concede to exist, then this is not a really valid evidence of anything.

We don't have one single clue as to how to calculate what's the effect of this, just that there is one.

If the Internet tells you that people are acting one way and the actions of the people around you tell you they are, in fact, acting the exact opposite way, which are you inclined to believe?
I don't know anyone, ANYone, who had planned to see this movie that backed out because of the shootings. As a matter of fact I'd say that more people I know went to see this over all the other superhero movies in the past. I don't expect that argument to carry that much weight with any of you all but think about it: who around you has refused to see this film because of the tragedy in Colorado? Ask around, check twitter, check Facebook. You'll find that there's next to no one.
As I've said time and time again: the people that were going to see this movie will see this movie. That's the bottom line.
I'm not saying there was no negative effect, I'm saying that people are making the effect out to be greater than it actually is.
People predicting that this film was going to break $200 million were being unrealistic to begin with. Sure it was possible, but it was extremely unprobable. Now that it looks like its going to make around 170, people are citing this as the reason but I feel as if that's an invalid argument.
Granted there's no way to tell whether I'm wrong or right, there's no way we can rub a crystal ball to see how this wouldve played out, but that's my honest analysis on the whole thing. Feel free to disagree with me, but I'm sticking to that until I see cold hard evidence that this genuinely turned a large amount of people away, which I haven't so far.

[Rock Sexton]

Originally Posted by El Payaso

Totally. People won't just shake this off and say, 'okay, so let's go and enjoy.' Now, how many will refrain from going, how many will wait untill watching in the safety of their homes and how many will think this movie is cursed is impossible to calculate.

Hasn't affected my Facebook newsfeed that's for sure. I think I counted 20+ people having mentioned seen it already since the shootings. I've yet to see anyone post about ditching plans to see it for fear of their safety.

With all due rerspoect, if what you get to see right next to you is the only reality you concede to exist, then this is not a really valid evidence of anything.

We don't have one single clue as to how to calculate what's the effect of this, just that there is one.

You can't calculate either side, but that somehow proves there's an effect? What kind of fortune cookie logic is that exactly?

So, channels talking of the tragedy equals great advertising for the movie? That's like saying showing shots of a country in war might favour tourism. Probably people will get more impact from the scope of the tragedy than how cool the images are.

Not even remotely apples to apples.

We're talking about movie theaters, not war torn countries. Tragedies tend to bring out "solidarity" and "support" from people ...... hence going to see the movie. I'm sure theaters will even be taking up donations for those who died or were hurt in the shootings.

[Pond]

A question: just out of curiosity, how much shoul a 2d (any, not necesarily TDKR) movie make to get to a cipher that would repreent avengers 207 millions due 3d diferentials? I iknow exactitude is impossible, but is there sort of an aproximate number to start off?

[Danalys]

average 3D extra charge is 30% but since only half of avengers tickets sold were for the 3D it's 15% of it's boxoffice. anyway it's impossible; but for not having enough midnight screenings the avengers did nearly as well as a film can do in it's first weekend. significantly more tickets can't be sold.

[Pond]

Thanks.

[Danalys]

anyway it looks like TDKR is going to have a few million more than TDK for it's opening weekend and will be the biggest 2D opening ever but will not have sold as many tickets as the avengers in that weekend despite having more midnight showings. probably because of it's length.

[Stark Bauer]

yeah and if TA2 can be a little shorter, say 2 hours instead of 2h30mins, it can make even more money due to more showings.

[DieSmiling]

Originally Posted by Danalys

anyway it looks like TDKR is going to have a few million more than TDK for it's opening weekend and will be the biggest 2D opening ever but will not have sold as many tickets as the avengers in that weekend despite having more midnight showings. probably because of it's length.

Pretty much. Not as many showing + 2D = a smaller opening. Avengers will definitely have sold more tickets, but it will be closer than the actual box office obviously... People claiming the shooting didn't hurt TDKR have their head in the sand, as do people who think Ledger's death didn't boost TDK.

I still think the estimates coming out now are conservative -- I think TDKR will end up somewhere around $185-190.

Avengers will hold the OW record for awhile... Eventually it will be shattered (obviously inflation will continue to lead to OW records being broken as they've been broken like 10 times in the last 20 years) but I think this will be good for at least a few years. Avatar 2 will be the next movie to have a chance I think.

Regardless it's a good time to be a superhero fan. Avengers is at 1.5 billion (almost) WW, Batman will easily be over a billion, and Spidey is doing great business as well (hopefully the sequel will see him get back to the heights of superhero greatness). Hopefully Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel keep it going in 2013.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by El Payaso

I'm sure the theater of the shooting won't be packed exactly.

I live in Denver, and that theater has shut down operations indefinitely while the poliece investigate. The only removed the bodies from the theater on Friday afternoon.