The TDKR Box Office Thread IV

[redfirebird2008]

Good news. Overseas estimate increased $3.8m to $252m. So despite the $1.3m decrease in the domestic estimate and total, the worldwide total went up by $2.5m. It's at nearly $540m.

[Tony Stark]

Word is the actuals are down to 60M.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Word is the actuals are down to 60M.

Nope, actual is $62.1 million.

[TLH]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Nope, actual is $62.1 million.

Still decent, would have preferred the sub 60% drop, but hopefully we can get at least 35m for next weekend. 450 is still possible, though 430-440 looks like the finish line.

[Spiderdevil]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

Yeah, but people became aware of it very quickly when it hit DVD. Twas the highest selling DVD of 2005 ahead of Goblet of Fire and Revenge of the Sith.

Spiderman 1 still made almost double of BB from Home Video earnings

[redfirebird2008]

So worldwide is $539.1 million. Pretty good.

[Spiderdevil]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

You know, I didn't really like The Amazing Spider-Man (I gave it a 6/10) but I'm still dismayed that the film completely failed to feel like an event. Ten years ago when Raimi's first Spider-Man movie came out... that was an event. I mean, it even managed to outshine a Star Wars film (not that it was particularly hard considering the quality of said SW film).

I love Spidey and I'm sad that he doesn't seem like a big deal anymore. If you told me ten years ago that Iron Man and The Avengers would become Marvel's biggest cinematic property... I would have called you nuts.

BB felt an even smaller deal in 2005 despite it being a great movie
As someone rightly said,these things tend to fluctuate.Fanbases change over the years.Now with Batman done,TAS-M 2 will have its day.Just like TDK had it day with Raimi's Spider man done away with in 2007

It was a stupid time to release the movie,between to superhero heavy weights,best time would be in November or December.The hype for TA and TDKR really overshadowed the hype for TAS-M

[intothevoid]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Pretty much beating TDK in 95% of the markets, and in some causes slaughtering TDK. It opened to a bigger amount in Russia and India than TDK's total in those countries. In Russia it's on pace to make around $12m more than TDK's total. It's on pace to make $20m more in Japan than TDK. It's on pace for $20m more in South Korea as well. It seems to be doing better in South America than TDK as well. In Australia it's pretty much on pace to match TDK's total, which is impressive considering the Heath Ledger factor would have been very strong in that country for TDK.

Eurozone is an economic disaster right now. The exchange rate is terrible compared to 2008. And yet it looks like it will still do pretty well compared to TDK, which was absolutely massive in the UK for instance. It's headed for around $10m less in that market. Spain is a mess. It opened about 7% lower than TDK due to the exchange rate and the fact that Spain is an economic trash heap right now. Portugal is in similar dire straits and I expect it to have a similar performance there relative to TDK.

Overall it looks to be headed for significantly more than TDK. If it gets a Chinese release (conflicting reports), then it has a chance at $650m overseas and possibly higher. Without China it's looking at $575m or so.

Thank you for that detailed response!

Yupp sounds about what I'm expecting (about $600m mark + $450-500 iin the US, for a total of nearly $1.1bn)

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by intothevoid

Thank you for that detailed response!

Yupp sounds about what I'm expecting (about $600m mark + $450-500 iin the US, for a total of nearly $1.1bn)

$500m domestic is off the table. It needs to keep following Pirates 2 in dailies to reach $450m. That is possible, although Pirates 2 had pretty good legs so it will be a challenge for TDKR. It should be able to make at least $430m though.

[Tony Stark]

Glad to see it didn't get down to 60M. I should know better than to trust people shooting their mouths off in the BOT forums.

[intothevoid]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

$500m domestic is off the table. It needs to keep following Pirates 2 in dailies to reach $450m. That is possible, although Pirates 2 had pretty good legs so it will be a challenge for TDKR. It should be able to make at least $430m though.

Yeah $450-500 was my original prediction (pre-tragedy, opening weekend, etc), I think as you say, could still reach $450 with some luck

[Baneis8feettall]

First 3 day of TDKR made more than First 3 day of Avengers in Turkey.

First 3 day made more money than total of BB and probably in it's first week will make more than TDK.

It has been on theaters since 27th.

[BlackFox]

One thing I dont get is what about the price of the ticket?

What I mean is I have seen this film three times but it cost me less that the two times I saw TDK here in the UK (by going to a cheaper local cinema instead).

So even though I have spent "less" on tickets I have seen it "more".

Do things like this and inflation get taken into consideration? I guess not?

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by BlackFox

One thing I dont get is what about the price of the ticket?

What I mean is I have seen this film three times but it cost me less that the two times I saw TDK here in the UK (by going to a cheaper local cinema instead).

So even though I have spent "less" on tickets I have seen it "more".

Do things like this and inflation get taken into consideration? I guess not?

Only when people attempt to calculate admissions.

[Bruce Malone]

Anyone have any serious predictions as what the final domestic tally could be? The past 2 weekends were affected to some degree by outside influences, with this weekend the olympics telecast bringing down its friday totals. Yet it's still put up very good numbers.

Assuming things stabilize the next weekend and beyond what are we looking at? obviously it will be beyond 400m but by how much?

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

Anyone have any serious predictions as what the final domestic tally could be? The past 2 weekends were affected to some degree by outside influences, with this weekend the olympics telecast bringing down its friday totals. Yet it's still put up very good numbers.

Assuming things stabilize the next weekend and beyond what are we looking at obviously it will be beyond 400m but by how much?

$430-450m is the range right now.

[Ultimatehero]

Fear is definitely impacting some people. Had a date last night and the girl I was with said she wants to see it but is too scared to after what happened. So, I guess it's definitely got to some people.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by BatLegend

This thing is really underperforming.

Is the JOKER really that big of a draw?

Is the BATMAN character that criminally under valued by general moviegoers? Same thing happened w/ Batman Begins. Until TDK Rises, the most Bruce Wayne focused story of all.

Did the movie massacre and olympics really have this big of an effect?

Yes the Joker is a huge draw, and yes Heath Ledger's death only made the Joker even more intriguing for audiences. I've been saying this for 4 years. Relative to the other non-Joker Batman films, TDKR is kicking butt. Batman Forever is the biggest one of them all and adjusts to $335m with inflation. TDKR is on pace to finish with around 20-25% bigger ticket sales than Forever. Considering that the shooting probably stole $20-30m that the film will never get back, this is a damn good performance.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by BatLegend

This thing is really underperforming.

Is the JOKER really that big of a draw?

Is the BATMAN character that criminally under valued by general moviegoers? Same thing happened w/ Batman Begins. Until TDK Rises, the most Bruce Wayne focused story of all.

Did the movie massacre and olympics really have this big of an effect?

430 to 450 million is under-performing? The final Harry Potter fim - one of the most popular and famous franchises in the world - grossed just under 400 million domestic. I think that some people are underestimating just how big an impact Ledger's performance and death had on The Dark Knight.

500+ million domestic is a virtually unheard of number with only four members - The Dark Knight, The Avengers, Titanic and Avatar.

[Liam_H]

As Red has said many times, the difference in earnings between movies with Joker in them and the ones that don't are quite striking.

Final Potter film confirmed that the franchise is limited to its fanbase, which is quite large.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Ultimatehero

Fear is definitely impacting some people. Had a date last night and the girl I was with said she wants to see it but is too scared to after what happened. So, I guess it's definitely got to some people.

Yep, I know 18 folks myself who still haven't seen TDKR because of the Colorado shootings. They rather wait for the DVD to arrive than go check it out in theaters. It sucks, but a tragedy like this will most definitely cause a dent at the box office.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Agent Orange

430 to 450 million is under-performing? The final Harry Potter fim - one of the most popular and famous franchises in the world - grossed just under 400 million domestic. I think that some people are underestimating just how big an impact Ledger's performance and death had on The Dark Knight.

500+ million domestic is a virtually unheard of number with only four members - The Dark Knight, The Avengers, Titanic and Avatar.

Potter made 381, but that was 3D-inflated. Get rid of the 3D and it's 350 or lower. TDKR will very likely be past $350m by the end of next weekend on its way to $430+ million.

[Baneis8feettall]

Originally Posted by BatLegend

This thing is really underperforming.

Is the JOKER really that big of a draw?

Is the BATMAN character that criminally under valued by general moviegoers? Same thing happened w/ Batman Begins. Until TDK Rises, the most Bruce Wayne focused story of all.

Did the movie massacre and olympics really have this big of an effect?

Movie doing great on box office. It's just not as much as some predicted.

Joker effects? Of course.He is the archnemesis of Batman. He is like Elvis of comic book villans.Also massacre & olympics have effect.

But movie doing great on box office overall.

[Agent Orange]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Potter made 381, but that was 3D-inflated. Get rid of the 3D and it's 350 or lower. TDKR will very likely be past $350m by the end of next weekend on its way to $430+ million.

That's another good point and TDKR's IMAX grosses are smaller than I expected.

[Bruce Malone]

Yes, it's only "underperfoming" based on the over performance you can argue of TDK. If it does end in the 450m range that is considered a great success by any estimate.

Things are still looking very good for the film finishing over 1 billion world wide and we all remember the impact that reaching that mark had for TDK. If would be a great way to end the series if TDKR follows that through.