The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

Sorry but 350-385M domestic is basically IM2 with inflation and 3D boost. 400M is the floor for this film, you can quote me on that, and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

I'm not saying this will be the next Avengers movie, but it is currently the front runner for biggest summer film of 2013.

[Excelsior.]

I think with the 3D boost it will reach a million, especially if it's a good film.

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by Excelsior.

I think with the 3D boost it will reach a million, especially if it's a good film.

Definitely

I'mma say 900M for now, could get close to a billion if Black knocks it out of the park

[Webfoot Hero]

I said $900 million due to the 3D tickets being added and a significant boost coming off The Avengers. Depending on how well Black did with the direction and script, the total BO could be significantly higher or lower.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Sorry but 350-385M domestic is basically IM2 with inflation and 3D boost. 400M is the floor for this film, you can quote me on that, and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

3D doesn't add 50-85 mill. 350 mill is a reasonable estimation for IM3 after Avengers good will and critical acclaim.

And this is laughable:

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

I think this will be another 1B WW picture. It will probably be 400+ domestic 600M WW. this isn't another Avengers, but I think it's got a good chance of surpassing TDKR, especially with 3D boost.

IM3 is not TDKR. It will not surpass TDKR. It shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation as TDKR beyond the fact it's the third film in a franchise.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

3D doesn't add 50-85 mill. 350 mill is a reasonable estimation for IM3 after Avengers good will and critical acclaim.

And this is laughable:


IM3 is not TDKR. It will not surpass TDKR. It shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation as TDKR beyond the fact it's the third film in a franchise.

The 3D boost will take it to 400M, wheather it makes 450 is another question. It will not make Avengers money, I've made that clear.

TDKR was a letdown from TDK, mainly because they used Joker in the 2nd, where this film they've saved the best for last. That is the only comparison I'm making. The villain, that's it, and the fact that this will probably be a billion dollar movie.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Chewy

Definitely

I'mma say 900M for now, could get close to a billion if Black knocks it out of the park

And that's all I'm saying, is this looks like the film we wanted for the 2nd, but didn't get. It's pretty clear IM2 was somewhat sacrificed as a business decision to setup Thor, Cap and Avengers.

I think IM2 was a good film, not near as good as the first and not as good as Thor. This one looks like it may be the best one yet.

[DOOZlovesBOOZ]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

It shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation as TDKR beyond the fact it's the third film in a franchise.

Well this is a conversation about B.O. and people to tend to use other movies' B.O. as a precursor, so him mentioning it as a goal isn't as unfathomable as you suggest.

[Tony Stark]

TDKR made just over 1B WW, there have been a ton of movies that have made over 1B WW, so suggesting a 3D movie, that is right now the lead summer film of 2013, will make 1B, is certainly doable.

[Kiltman]

All the solo movies should get a boost from the success of the avengers. Ironman was already doing well before that so I say 800-900 million is likely going to be the range.

It'll have three weeks overseas, and two weeks domestically until Star Trek 2 comes out which will have the same audience. But I expect it to hit that range by early June.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Kiltman

All the solo movies should get a boost from the success of the avengers. Ironman was already doing well before that so I say 800-900 million is likely going to be the range.

It'll have three weeks overseas, and two weeks domestically until Star Trek 2 comes out which will have the same audience. But I expect it to hit that range by early June.

Star Trek is going to take a hit for having waited so long between sequels. They really should have had that movie out last year at the latest. 2011 would have been perfect. It will do well, but I'm thinking it's probalbly 300M domestic tops 400-500 WW. Star Trek does horrible overseas, which is ironic considering it's all about all of humanity working together for a common goal.

[Kiltman]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Star Trek is going to take a hit for having waited so long between sequels. They really should have had that movie out last year at the latest. 2011 would have been perfect. It will do well, but I'm thinking it's probalbly 300M domestic tops 400-500 WW. Star Trek does horrible overseas, which is ironic considering it's all about all of humanity working together for a common goal.

Yea they probably will....but it'll still make good money. My only point with it was that there will be a group of people who can either go see IM3 for the second/third/fourth time or go see something they haven't seen yet with Star Trek. Most people would see something they haven't...unlike me who would just see both ha.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Kiltman

Yea they probably will....but it'll still make good money. My only point with it was that there will be a group of people who can either go see IM3 for the second/third/fourth time or go see something they haven't seen yet with Star Trek. Most people would see something they haven't...unlike me who would just see both ha.

I agree, IM3 will be no. 1 for two weeks, and then ST should take the top spot. The big question is how much of a drop it will take. If IM3 is the film we hope it to be, it should still do well. I expect that ST:ITD will open hopefully around 100M, and by then I'd say IM3 could follow conservatively: 150, 68, 45 for 1st, 2nd and 3rd weekends, with hopefully a high 2.7-2.8 multiplier which would put it over 400M.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Sorry but 350-385M domestic is basically IM2 with inflation and 3D boost. 400M is the floor for this film, you can quote me on that, and I'll eat crow if I'm wrong.

I'm not saying this will be the next Avengers movie, but it is currently the front runner for biggest summer film of 2013.

362/365 is actually what IM2's numbers would roughly translate into with ticket price inflation and 3D boost (if you go by the 15% thumb rule).

Now, even if I think that the 400M mark is far from being impossible to reach, there are several things that should be taken into consideration.
First and foremost IM3 will come after a movie that already sold 5 million less tickets in the domestic market than its predecessor wich is widely considered as the weak link of the MCU Phase 1 movies. In addition, the alleged "Avengers boost" on solo franchises is not at all certain at this time and even if it plays a role, in the end, it'll be no more than a marginal boost to the OWE numbers ,after wich the movie will have to perform on its own merits.

Just to get things straight, I don't say that 400M domestically won't happen, just that I think it's a mistake to take for granted that a sequel will necessarily make more than the previous installement in the franchise. To reach the 400M mark, IM3 will have to get back to a 2008 Iron Man like attendance wich is, on a decaying market (if you reason in terms of tickets sold), a challenge of its own kind.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

IM3 is not TDKR. It will not surpass TDKR. It shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation as TDKR beyond the fact it's the third film in a franchise.

LOL. Are you serious? TDKR underwhelmed BIG TIME, box office wise and critically... and Iron Man 3 shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation? You speak as if TDKR was the third biggest film of all time when it didn't even surpass Return of the King which came out years ago.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

LOL. Are you serious? TDKR underwhelmed BIG TIME, box office wise and critically...

No, it didn't.

and Iron Man 3 shouldn't even be mentioned in the same conversation? You speak as if TDKR was the third biggest film of all time when it didn't even surpass Return of the King which came out years ago.

Iron Man is not the Avengers so don't try and use that as some kind of leverage in your argument. IM3 will not have the same hype as TDKR, that's just a given. The TDK franchise is on a whole other level than Iron Man. Avengers and 3D boost won't push it up 400 mill from the previous movie into billion dollar land.

[Raiden]

I think IM3 can make between 800M-1B WW if it is as good as the trailer suggested.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

No, it didn't.

Keep thinking that

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Iron Man is not the Avengers so don't try and use that as some kind of leverage in your argument. IM3 will not have the same hype as TDKR, that's just a given. The TDK franchise is on a whole other level than Iron Man. Avengers and 3D boost won't push it up 400 mill from the previous movie into billion dollar land.

You are really overrating the Nolan Batman franchise, it is NOT on a whole other level. Until TDKR Batman didn't even do well overseas and Batman Begins didn't too well overall. Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers have done just as well box office wise and I promise you, Iron Man is on that level. 400M domestic and a billion worldwide is very achievable.

Also, hype and box office are 2 different things. On Stranger Tides was not hyped AT ALL and it cruised to a billion.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Keep thinking that

Don't have to think when facts support my claim.

You are really overrating the Nolan Batman franchise, it is NOT on a whole other level. Until TDKR Batman didn't even do well overseas and Batman Begins didn't too well overall. Pirates of the Caribbean and Transformers have done just as well box office wise and I promise you, Iron Man is on that level. 400M domestic and a billion worldwide is very achievable.

What's your point? TDK was the turning point, duh. And your (incorrect) assertion that Batman didn't do well overseas until TDKR doesn't help your argument. Iron Man is simply not on the same level as those other franchises. It's last movie barely grossed 600 mill. Until IM3 proves that it is on that level you shouldn't be comparing IM to those franchises and saying it can outgross TDKR because if we're going off of historical evidence nothing supports that idea.

Also, hype and box office are 2 different things. On Stranger Tides was not hyped AT ALL and it cruised to a billion.

Hype is tied into BO performance especially if you're talking about a movie skyrocketing past its predecessor by 400 mill.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

What's your point? TDK was the turning point, duh. And your (incorrect) assertion that Batman didn't do well overseas until TDKR doesn't help your argument. Iron Man is simply not on the same level as those other franchises. It's last movie barely grossed 600 mill. Until IM3 proves that it is on that level you shouldn't be comparing IM to those franchises and saying it can outgross TDKR because if we're going off of historical evidence nothing supports that idea.

Stop acting like The Avengers doesn't count for anything. In the eyes of the general audience The Avengers is Iron Man 3's predecessor, not Iron Man 2. And you want historical evidence? The Avengers is THE THIRD BIGGEST FILM OF ALL-TIME DOMESTICALLY AND WORLDWIDE. The Avengers is, as you say, "the turning point."

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Stop acting like The Avengers doesn't count for anything. In the eyes of the general audience The Avengers is Iron Man 3's predecessor, not Iron Man 2. And you want historical evidence? The Avengers is THE THIRD BIGGEST FILM OF ALL-TIME DOMESTICALLY AND WORLDWIDE. The Avengers is, as you say, "the turning point."

The Avengers and Iron Man have a completely different relationship than TDK and TDKR, obviously. I never said the Avengers didn't count for anything. I'm saying that it's not going to take Iron Man individually from being a 600 mill franchise to a billion franchise.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Stop acting like The Avengers doesn't count for anything. In the eyes of the general audience The Avengers is Iron Man 3's predecessor, not Iron Man 2. And you want historical evidence? The Avengers is THE THIRD BIGGEST FILM OF ALL-TIME DOMESTICALLY AND WORLDWIDE. The Avengers is, as you say, "the turning point."

Another thing for the low-balling naysayers to consider is that The Avengers, the third-highest grossing film in history, was a sequel to Iron Man 1 & 2, TIH, Thor and Captain America. Those movies led into TA and served to establish the film universe in the popular culture, which in turn led to its box office-shattering success. There is a reason why RDJ/Tony Stark/Iron Man featured so prominently in The Avengers' marketing, and it's not because Downey played Sherlock Holmes. Without the earlier films leading into it, TA is unlikely to have been such a success. Now IM3 comes right on the heels of TA and it can capitalize off the success of that film.


It's called synergy. Marvel films draw momentum from it.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

The Avengers and Iron Man have a completely different relationship than TDK and TDKR, obviously. I never said the Avengers didn't count for anything. I'm saying that it's not going to take Iron Man individually from being a 600 mill franchise to a billion franchise.

This attitude is oddly like that of some posters in The Avengers Box Office thread. There were some people who swore up and down that the popularity of the previous Marvel films would not do anything to raise TA's profile with the public, and thus it couldn't hope to do much better than Iron Man 2 did. Because, you know, TDKR was a sequel TDK which was a sequel to BB, while TA was not a sequel IM/IM2/TIH/Thor/CA:TWS. We all know now how that argument played out.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by xeno000

Another thing for the low-balling naysayers to consider is that The Avengers, the third-highest grossing film in history, was a sequel to Iron Man 1 & 2, TIH, Thor and Captain America. Those movies led into TA and served to establish the film universe in the popular culture, which in turn led to its box office-shattering success. There is a reason why RDJ/Tony Stark/Iron Man featured so prominently in The Avengers' marketing, and it's not because Downey played Sherlock Holmes. Without the earlier films leading into it, TA is unlikely to have been such a success. Now IM3 comes right on the heels of TA and it can capitalize off the success of that film.


It's called synergy. Marvel films draw momentum from it.

In what world is 800 mill low-balling for a franchise that was previously 600 mill? A billion is just going too far solely basing it off of Avengers and 3D.

Originally Posted by xeno000

This attitude is oddly like that of some posters in The Avengers Box Office thread. There were some people who swore up and down that the popularity of the previous Marvel films would not do anything to raise TA's profile with the public, and thus it couldn't hope to do much better than Iron Man 2 did. Because, you know, TDKR was a sequel TDK which was a sequel to BB, while TA was not a sequel IM/IM2/TIH/Thor/CA:TWS. We all know now how that argument played out.

This is a completely different situation not to mention I'm not even saying Iron Man's profile wasn't raised after the Avengers.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by JKKS085

362/365 is actually what IM2's numbers would roughly translate into with ticket price inflation and 3D boost (if you go by the 15% thumb rule).

Now, even if I think that the 400M mark is far from being impossible to reach, there are several things that should be taken into consideration.
First and foremost IM3 will come after a movie that already sold 5 million less tickets in the domestic market than its predecessor wich is widely considered as the weak link of the MCU Phase 1 movies. In addition, the alleged "Avengers boost" on solo franchises is not at all certain at this time and even if it plays a role, in the end, it'll be no more than a marginal boost to the OWE numbers ,after wich the movie will have to perform on its own merits.

Just to get things straight, I don't say that 400M domestically won't happen, just that I think it's a mistake to take for granted that a sequel will necessarily make more than the previous installement in the franchise. To reach the 400M mark, IM3 will have to get back to a 2008 Iron Man like attendance wich is, on a decaying market (if you reason in terms of tickets sold), a challenge of its own kind.

And 362/365 is between 350-385 right?

There is no "alleged Avengers boost" Avengers is the top grossing movie of 2012 and no. 3 all time. Robert Downey Jr. was no. 1 on the billboard of that movie, even if he shared screen time with all the actors.

Again, I don't take anything for granted, my prediction is based on this trailer raising the stakes in a way that we may have not seen in any Marvel film, including Avengers. However the film has to live up to the hype. Avengers lived up to the hype and it paid off. This film has to as well.

1B WW is not a rediculous prediction, in fact I'd say 1B is what 800M used to be 4-5 years ago.