The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

In what world is 800 mill low-balling for a franchise that was previously 600 mill? A billion is just going too far solely basing it off of Avengers and 3D.


This is a completely different situation not to mention I'm not even saying Iron Man's profile wasn't raised after the Avengers.

In a world where Madagascar 3 makes 700M WW, that's what world.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by xeno000

This attitude is oddly like that of some posters in The Avengers Box Office thread. There were some people who swore up and down that the popularity of the previous Marvel films would not do anything to raise TA's profile with the public, and thus it couldn't hope to do much better than Iron Man 2 did. Because, you know, TDKR was a sequel TDK which was a sequel to BB, while TA was not a sequel IM/IM2/TIH/Thor/CA:TWS. We all know now how that argument played out.

100% right on. People don't get it, and didn't learn their lesson. There were people saying that Avengers would only make 700-800M WW. It turned out about 2 times that amount.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

In a world where Madagascar 3 makes 700M WW, that's what world.

That doesn't have anything to do with this whatsoever.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

That doesn't have anything to do with this whatsoever.

The thing is, you would've predicted TDKR to make more than The Avengers, and look how that turned out. I think you're grossly underestimating IM3, but in the end I think RDJ will turn in a great product and moviegoers will flock to see it en mass.

[rayc1971]

after seeing the trailer i say this will be the iron man trilogy dark knight.i say 400mil domestic and 500mil os for a ww of 900mill.everyone has been waiting for the mandain this will blow the boring iron man 2 out of the water.

[Quasimod0]

800 to 900 million

[John McGuirk]

I'm gonna go 1 billion. Maybe $950-ish

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

And 362/365 is between 350-385 right?

There is no "alleged Avengers boost" Avengers is the top grossing movie of 2012 and no. 3 all time. Robert Downey Jr. was no. 1 on the billboard of that movie, even if he shared screen time with all the actors.

Again, I don't take anything for granted, my prediction is based on this trailer raising the stakes in a way that we may have not seen in any Marvel film, including Avengers. However the film has to live up to the hype. Avengers lived up to the hype and it paid off. This film has to as well.

1B WW is not a rediculous prediction, in fact I'd say 1B is what 800M used to be 4-5 years ago.

Indeed, but then anything between 365 and 385 will already be a growth from the previous installement in the franchise.

As for the Avengers boost, I used the world "alleged" because, as of today, you cannot predict how much it will impact the solo franchises, if at all. Every assumption you can make that there will be an influence beyond a slight boost to the OWE numbers is, at best, a shot in the dark.

Now, I think that Raimi's Spider-Man franchise should come to mind. Despite the record breaking first installement, despite the insane hype, the overwhelming critical response (and ticket price inflation) Spider-Man 2 never crossed the 400M mark.

Maybe the market was less inclined towards another Spider-Man flicks (or cbms in general), maybe there was too much competition, maybe the 2 years time between SM1 and SM2 was too short so people didn't feel the need to see another Spider-Man movie so soon after the last one, the only thing we can say for sure is that, for some reasons, the movie never clicked with audiences as much as its predecessor did despite being better. Point being that, the 400M target in the domestic market remains a milestone (even moreso than the billion mark WW wich have been crossed by 5 films in the last two years while only 3 grossed more than 400 million domestically) and that any movie (even coming from the most successful franchises) actually needs a favourable conjunction of factors (and a willing market) to get to it.

I most definitely think that it is way too early to tell wether or not Iron Man 3 will benefit from such a conjonction (and sure thing is that it'll face much more direct competition than any of the first two Iron Man movies or even The Avengers) and wether or not the market will be as inclined towards cbms as it is today.

Having said that, given the growth rates of several major overseas market, 1B WW is definitely not an absurde prediction. To be clear, I don't see this happening but I would be less surprised to see the the movie gross 1B WW than I would be to see it gross over 400M domestically.

[Spider-Fan]

I think IM3 will make 1 billion WW, IMO. 400 domestic is another matter. That will be harder, IMO.

[LegendAssemble]

I think Iron Man 3 will make between 600 to 900 million. Keep in mind Iron Man was very well critically received, and even though Iron Man 2 wasn't, Robert Downey Jr was given one of the larger roles in the Avengers. With how good the trailer is and the established fan base I'm predicting a big opening weekend, the recepetion and word of mouth will really be the factor. If it's negative then the movie will probably make about as much as Iron Man 2 if it's positive then it will be pretty big.

[ironman_rick]

at least 1 billion

[kaijunexus]

Remember the Avengers box office thread months before the release?

Almost everyone scoffed at the idea of a 1 billion worldwide gross.

Yeah...

IM3 - 1 billion WW

[747]

I'm guessing 850, somewhat of a middle ground to not be too off.

[cherokeesam]

Originally Posted by kaijunexus

Remember the Avengers box office thread months before the release?

Almost everyone scoffed at the idea of a 1 billion worldwide gross.

Yeah...

IM3 - 1 billion WW

Yeah, but there's a *much* bigger difference between a movie going from *one* superhero to *six,* as opposed to *six* superheroes going down to *one.* That's too big an assumption that people who went to Avengers to see Hulk or Cap or Thor or even Widow or Hawkeye --- or better yet the team dynamic altogether --- are going to be equally (or more) invested now in just one of those heroes.

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by kaijunexus

Remember the Avengers box office thread months before the release?

Almost everyone scoffed at the idea of a 1 billion worldwide gross.

Yeah...

IM3 - 1 billion WW

Haha yep, I remember having some pretty mind-numbing "discussions" with people in the Avengers BO thread, haha

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by cherokeesam

Yeah, but there's a *much* bigger difference between a movie going from *one* superhero to *six,* as opposed to *six* superheroes going down to *one.* That's too big an assumption that people who went to Avengers to see Hulk or Cap or Thor or even Widow or Hawkeye --- or better yet the team dynamic altogether --- are going to be equally (or more) invested now in just one of those heroes.

I don't think anyone's suggested this will be as big as Avengers? But you should see a similar audience to IM2 domestically, which with 3D will take it up to ~350. And that's assuming the audience hasn't expanded, which seems counter-intuitive.

And you're going to see a HUGE jump overseas from IM2, 3D and market expansion and expanded exposure to the character in a ton of markets, yada yada yada. I have a hard time picturing it doing less than 500M OS.

So that puts it at ~850M WW. I think it has 1B potential, but it needs to be really, really good and catch on with audiences in a big way.

[Chris B]

Originally Posted by cherokeesam

I think the safest thing I can say about an early prediction is that it'll make more than IM2, but less than Avengers.

I agree with this. I think IM2 kind of dashed any hope of the franchise making it into $400 million territory domestically. Though obvioulsy the Avengers bump will be a big boost.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Chris B

I agree with this. I think IM2 kind of dashed any hope of the franchise making it into $400 million territory domestically. Though obvioulsy the Avengers bump will be a big boost.

Why? Iron Man 2 was actually well received despite what fans think and did only slightly less than the first domestically. Besides, nobody is going into Iron Man 3 thinking about Iron Man 2, people are going into it thinking about The Avengers. Iron Man 2 has very little effect on Iron Man 3 if at all in my opinion. The Avengers changed everything. Phase 2 is going to be very different than Phase 1.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Iron Man 2 was not nearly as well received as the first film. Lucky for Iron Man 3 the Avenger's was such a giant hit, with 3D Iron Man 3 should easily hit 800mil worldwide. I'm not ready to predict a billion just because the Avengers made more than a billion.

[rashad]

Another factor is competition, domestically at least. IM3 faces alot more adversity than the Avengers did in it's release. It'll be interesting to see how it's legs hold up.

Star Trek Into Darkness - May 17th
Fast and Furious 6 - May 24th
The Hangover 3 - May 24th

[rashad]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Why? Iron Man 2 was actually well received despite what fans think

No it wasn't. It was mixed to middling at best.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by rashad

No it wasn't. It was mixed to middling at best.

Actually it was pretty positive, it has like a 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 80% approval from the audience.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by BigThor

Actually it was pretty positive, it has like a 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 80% approval from the audience.

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

[Marvin]

Also, unlike Avengers(starring IronMan) I don't see those following 3 blockbusters(especially that first one) next year pulling a MIB3/DarkShadows/BattleShip..etc lame performance.

Avengers really helped this product and the 3D will help but this won't make TDK numbers or it's sequel.

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

800-875M-ish