The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

THIS.

The online hatred of Iron Man 2 isn't shared by most of the general audience. Everyone knows that it wasn't as good as the first movie, but it was nowhere near the utter bomb some claim that it was.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Marvin

Also, unlike Avengers(starring IronMan) I don't see those following 3 blockbusters(especially that first one) next year pulling a MIB3/DarkShadows/BattleShip..etc lame performance.

Avengers really helped this product and the 3D will help but this won't make TDK numbers or it's sequel.

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

THANK YOU.
Iron man 2 was in no way a perfect film but people act like it was unsuccessful in almost every way, when they have nothing to base on that on. In fact most people I know who saw it greatly enjoyed it. It's only a segment of diehard fans who view that film as a debacle, which is ludicrous.
That being said, I redact my previous statement of 750 mil after seeing that trailer. I think a billion is, at this point, definitely attainable.

[Spider-Vader]

$900M-$1B worldwide
$350-400M domestic

The reaction for the trailer has been overwhelmingly positive, if the hype keeps up then I think my numbers could be attainable.

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

Agreed. The level of hate that people spew at this movie is limited to online movie forums filled with fanboys and rival fanboys. Nobody in the real world hated IM2. This is in contrast to movies like Green Lantern, Spider-Man 3, Superman Returns, Batman & Robin, Fantastic Four 2, and even Watchmen. These movies were franchise killers and required immediate reboots. Iron Man 2 directly led into a pretty decent hit in Thor. I doubt most people give that movie a chance without Iron Man 2. There is also a reason that Avengers was largely sold on Iron Man/Tony Stark/RDJ.

I posted on another thread but IM2 is Temple of Doom. It was a weaker offering than Raiders but people still enjoyed it. There is a big difference between Temple of Doom and Crystal Skull, which many people DID hate. Like ToD, I think IM2 will be looked upon more fondly in the future. Once RDJ is finished as Stark, people will be more nostalgic and appreciate the humor/charm of him in 2.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

Originally Posted by xeno000

THIS.

The online hatred of Iron Man 2 isn't shared by most of the general audience. Everyone knows that it wasn't as good as the first movie, but it was nowhere near the utter bomb some claim that it was.

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

Agreed. The level of hate that people spew at this movie is limited to online movie forums filled with fanboys and rival fanboys. Nobody in the real world hated IM2. This is in contrast to movies like Green Lantern, Spider-Man 3, Superman Returns, Batman & Robin, Fantastic Four 2, and even Watchmen. These movies were franchise killers and required immediate reboots. Iron Man 2 directly led into a pretty decent hit in Thor. I doubt most people give that movie a chance without Iron Man 2. There is also a reason that Avengers was largely sold on Iron Man/Tony Stark/RDJ.

Agreed 100%

[rashad]

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

Nobody in the real world hated IM2.

So you're in tune with the entire nation's thoughts? lol j/k Anyone who truly hates it are in the minority. Regardless if it's an "online thing" or not.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

THANK YOU.
Iron man 2 was in no way a perfect film but people act like it was unsuccessful in almost every way, when they have nothing to base on that on. In fact most people I know who saw it greatly enjoyed it. It's only a segment of diehard fans who view that film as a debacle, which is ludicrous.
That being said, I redact my previous statement of 750 mil after seeing that trailer. I think a billion is, at this point, definitely attainable.

It's not like IM2 was on the level of Superman Returns, a film which was actually rather poorly received when it came out. Turning Superman into a deadbeat dad who stalked his ex and her family was a bad idea from the start. As was that weird half-alien kid played by the sorriest moppet in Hollywood. That was just...wrong in so many ways. Like SR, there are plenty of other superhero films that were truly bad and disliked by the public, but IM2 isn't one of them.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by xeno000

It's not like IM2 was on the level of Superman Returns, a film which was actually rather poorly received when it came out. Turning Superman into a deadbeat dad who stalked his ex and her family was a bad idea from the start. As was that weird half-alien kid played by the sorriest moppet in Hollywood. That was just...wrong in so many ways. Like SR, there are plenty of other superhero films that were truly bad and disliked by the public, but IM2 isn't one of them.

Just to name a few....

- Hulk (2003)

- Jonah Hex

- Ghost Rider

- Green Lantern

- Elektra

- Catwoman

- Steel

- Ghost Rider: SOV

[kedrell]

Ok, I'm on the billion bandwagon.

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by BigThor

Just to name a few....

- Hulk (2003)

- Jonah Hex

- Ghost Rider

- Green Lantern

- Elektra

- Catwoman

- Steel

- Ghost Rider: SOV

What a list. I think that Jonah Hex, Catwoman and Electra are in a three-way tie for the worst CBM ever. We can add Batman & Robin, as well. These are all movies with little or no redeeming value. I regret to say that I actually paid to see some of them.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by xeno000

It's not like IM2 was on the level of Superman Returns, a film which was actually rather poorly received when it came out. Turning Superman into a deadbeat dad who stalked his ex and her family was a bad idea from the start. As was that weird half-alien kid played by the sorriest moppet in Hollywood. That was just...wrong in so many ways. Like SR, there are plenty of other superhero films that were truly bad and disliked by the public, but IM2 isn't one of them.

Just FIY.

Iron Man 2:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/iron_man_2/

TOMATOMETER 75%
Average Rating: 6.5/10
Reviews Counted: 268
Fresh: 200 | Rotten: 68

Superman Returns:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/superman_returns/

TOMATOMETER 76%
Average Rating: 7.1/10
Reviews Counted: 257
Fresh: 196 | Rotten: 61

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by JKKS085

Just FIY.

Iron Man 2:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/iron_man_2/



Superman Returns:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/superman_returns/

He specifically said 'disliked by the public'. Please note the box office returns of both of those films; money talks.
I personally feel that peoples complaints about SR are much more widespread and valid than those who adamantly hate IM2, which are a relatively small handful of loud internet fanboys.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by xeno000

What a list. I think that Jonah Hex, Catwoman and Electra are in a three-way tie for the worst CBM ever. We can add Batman & Robin, as well. These are all movies with little or no redeeming value. I regret to say that I actually paid to see some of them.

Steel was **** awful. At least some of these other trash heaps had some good actors in them. Clooney, Garner, Josh Brolin, Fassbender, Thurman etc. Steel gave us Shaq and Ray J.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

He specifically said 'disliked by the public'. Please note the box office returns of both of those films; money talks.
I personally feel that peoples complaints about SR are much more widespread and valid than those who adamantly hate IM2, which are a relatively small handful of loud internet fanboys.

He wrote: "It's not like IM2 was on the level of Superman Returns, a film which was actually rather poorly received when it came out."

I was just putting things into perspective by showing that critically Superman Returns was neither poorly received nor less well received than Iron Man 2.

Now I won't argue that the public seems to like IM2 better (and that may have something to do with the fact that it's simply a more entertaining movie) but that box-office argument between films that were released 4 years apart on a market that totally changed simply doesn't make sense.

On a personnal level, even though I enjoyed the movie for what it is, I must admit that I understand most of the criticism directed towards IM2 (the absence of strong/meaningfull character arcs, the uninspired action sequences, the laziness in the direction of the cast, among other things).

[Juicy J]

Fair enough.
I myself have problems with IM2 but I have an even bigger problem with people who act like the second film was a debacle on par with FF, Elektra, etc. Marvel Studios, for all intents and purposes, has yet to make an unsuccessful film so I find it ridiculous when people label IM2 as a failure.

[Joeyjojo72]

I wasnt crazy about IM2, but I completely agree that its not a straight up bad movie. It just happens to compare unfavorably with the first movie. Its a 7/10 movie that gets bashed by fanboys as if its a 4/10 movie.

Regardless, I expect some next level **** in the new movie. If its only slightly better than IM2 or a rehash of IM1, I will be disappointed. IM1 and TA (not to mention that other company's recently concluded franchise) have raised the bar for all SH movies going forward as far as I'm concerned. Repetition = Mediocrity = Failure.

Box Office wise, I think quality and word of mouth will have a bigger impact than many realize. I dont see the movie bombing, but if the consensus is that IM3 isnt all that great, a billion wont happen.

The movie outright sucks: 650 million
The movie is merely meh: 800 million
The movie is good: 1 billion
The movie is amazing: 1.3 or more

[spideymouse]

All right, this is the first time I've made a prediction. So I could be way off base.

I took a look at the movies that come out shortly after Iron Man 3, and it made me come down a bit from the initial $950M-$1B I had in mind. IMO, Star Trek 2, Fast and Furious 6, and ultimately Man of Steel will take a lot away from the longevity/loyalty of IM3's viewership, especially from the foreign box office. The whole world loves Superman, and if the movie is half good, it's going to take a lot of attention away from ol' Shellhead. In order to hit $1B, I really believe that the foreign market has to take up more than 60% of your box office, and I don't think I see that happening for Iron Man with all the other blockbusters following closely behind.

I predict around $850M. But my heart would love to see it break $1B and shut up all the doubters about Marvel Studios solo films post-Avengers.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

And it had a Cinemascore of A. Only comic book fans lash out at IM2. Pretty much everyone else i know who saw that movie said it was pretty entertaining, although most admitted it wasnt as good as the first. IM2 had its faults but its nowhere near the abject disaster comic fans make it out to seem imo

I agree, people always go back in retrospect and try to make things out as worse than they were.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by JKKS085

Just FIY.

Iron Man 2:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/iron_man_2/



Superman Returns:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/superman_returns/

You left out the most important part, which is the audience approval ratings.


Iron Man 2 - 80%

Superman Returns - 67%


Not so close when speaking specifically of their favor with the general audience now is it?

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by rashad

So you're in tune with the entire nation's thoughts? lol j/k Anyone who truly hates it are in the minority. Regardless if it's an "online thing" or not.

Just something that I notice when talking to people without strong opinions on CBMs and what the post-IM2 reaction has been in regards to Marvel Studios. Dislike for IM2 is isolated to segments of the fanboy community--mainly those who assumed it was going be the next TDK (ie-Demon in a Bottle) and those put Iron Man 1 on some pedestal. I think most people can see that the plot of IM2 wasn't quite as polished as IM1 but everything else was in my opinion. The difference in quality between IM1 and IM2 isn't that far off.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by xeno000

What a list. I think that Jonah Hex, Catwoman and Electra are in a three-way tie for the worst CBM ever. We can add Batman & Robin, as well. These are all movies with little or no redeeming value. I regret to say that I actually paid to see some of them.

The only films on that list I paid to see were the Ghost Rider films and Green Lantern, which were atleast somewhat entertaining.

[ElMariachi]

I don't think Superman Returns was a horrible movie. It was techincally a well made film. The problem was it was dull and the sucked the fun out of a colorful character. I should remember more from a Superman movie than a giant crystal, Superman being a deadbeat dad, and Lex yelling, "WRONG!" It's the reason why the movie came and went, nobody caring if they ever made a sequel. People were willing to overlook Iron Man 2's flaws because the movie for the most part was amusing and really funny. This is something I hope Snyder is looking at with MoS. You can shoot all the beautiful scenes of Superman on the farm and fishing--people want to see a charming, heroic, and kickass Superman. Thor (aside from the initial arrogance and whining) is the perfect model for how they should approach Superman. People liked Thor and gave the movie a chance because Thor came off as a charming character. They also need to realize they aren't ever going to best Christopher Reeve, so it's time for a different approach. MoS should look real incredible, the biggest question is if Cavill is likeable as Clark Kent.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by BigThor

You left out the most important part, which is the audience approval ratings.


Iron Man 2 - 80%

Superman Returns - 67%


Not so close when speaking specifically of their favor with the general audience now is it?

Like I said there's not point arguing over this matter. The general audience definitely seems to like Iron Man 2 better. There are indeed many facts to support that theorie all over the internet.
The only thing I was pointing out is that, critically, Superman Returns was in fact (slightly) better received than IM2.

I would have thought it was somehow precise and closed to misinterpretation.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Fair enough.
I myself have problems with IM2 but I have an even bigger problem with people who act like the second film was a debacle on par with FF, Elektra, etc. Marvel Studios, for all intents and purposes, has yet to make an unsuccessful film so I find it ridiculous when people label IM2 as a failure.

You're right on all counts here.
I strongly think that IM2 is the weakest Marvel Studio film to date but saying that it is on par with some of the worth cbms in history is just ridiculous.