The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[MahvelBaby!]

It won't do Avengers numbers but I think it will do a good deal more than average Iron Man numbers based on the popularity of Avengers and (hopefully) interest in seeing whats happening next from the GA.

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by MahvelBaby!

It won't do Avengers numbers but I think it will do a good deal more than average Iron Man numbers based on the popularity of Avengers and (hopefully) interest in seeing whats happening next from the GA.

So far this appears to be the general consensus, which makes sense. There's next to no doubt this thing is going to be huge. The only real question is if it'll crack a billion, which at this moment in time I think is more than possible.
If disney knows how to do anything, it's marketing. So you better believe once next year rolls around you're going to be seeing iron man all over the place.

Originally Posted by JKKS085

You're right on all counts here.
I strongly think that IM2 is the weakest Marvel Studio film to date but saying that it is on par with some of the worth cbms in history is just ridiculous.

Just out of curiosity, how would you rank the MCU films in order from best to worst? Cause I actually thought TIH was my least favorite MS film. It'd probably go
Avengers
Cap
Thor
Iron man
Iron man 2
TIH
Although as I said, I think they are all good movies. Marvel doesn't know how to make a flop.

Originally Posted by BigThor

The only films on that list I paid to see were the Ghost Rider films and Green Lantern, which were atleast somewhat entertaining.

GL was somewhat enjoyable the first time I saw it in kind of a bland, uninspired, mediocre way. I enjoy superhero movies, and since it was pretty much just an exercise in telling your prototypical superhero story I got my fix there. I wasn't happy at all that I payed for it though, and on rewatch I'd rank it in my top 10 worst movies I've ever seen.

[JKKS085]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Just out of curiosity, how would you rank the MCU films in order from best to worst? Cause I actually thought TIH was my least favorite MS film. It'd probably go
Avengers
Cap
Thor
Iron man
Iron man 2
TIH
Although as I said, I think they are all good movies. Marvel doesn't know how to make a flop.

If I had to rank the entire Phase One I'll say:
1- The Avengers
2- Iron Man
3- The Incredible Hulk
4- Captain America: The First Avenger
5- Thor
6- Iron Man 2

I'm a bit partial to The Incredible Hulk because it is the first live rendition of the character that I cared for (probably because I'm a huge Edward Norton fan) but I do admit that it is overall not as compelling as Cap or Thor

Same thing here. I think they're all average to very good films (despite the fact that I absolutely love Iron Man 1 and The Avengers I can't call them great though) and Marvel has yet to prove (or not ) than one of their films can be a failure.

[Marvin]

Without avengers, I am truly curious what kinda buzz this film would have had.

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Without Avengers I'd guess around 700m. With, my guess is 850M.

[rashad]

Originally Posted by Juicy J

Although as I said, I think they are all good movies. Marvel doesn't know how to make a flop.

That doesn't mean they're infallible. It'll be interesting to see if movies like Guardians and Ant Man appeal to audiences. As good as Edgar Wright's films have been. They haven't exactly set the box office on fire.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Neither did Whedon's.

[Spider-Vader]

Originally Posted by Marvin

Without avengers, I am truly curious what kinda buzz this film would have had.

It still would have had some big buzz, just not as big as it currently does.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

Neither did Whedon's.

Exactly.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by rashad

That doesn't mean they're infallible. It'll be interesting to see if movies like Guardians and Ant Man appeal to audiences. As good as Edgar Wright's films have been. They haven't exactly set the box office on fire.

He didnt have Disney and the Marvel imprint behind him either. By the time Antman comes out, Phase 2 would be complete with hopefully another smash with Avengers 2. If this happens, which looks very probable atm, Marvel Studios will be a full on brand, and as they did with Avengers, Disney know how to market these films. Ant-man will do fine

[Zinc Saucier]

Originally Posted by T"Challa

He didnt have Disney and the Marvel imprint behind him either. By the time Antman comes out, Phase 2 would be complete with hopefully another smash with Avengers 2. If this happens, which looks very probable atm, Marvel Studios will be a full on brand, and as they did with Avengers, Disney know how to market these films. Ant-man will do fine

This is kind of off topic, but your comment made me wonder, is Ant-Man going to be considered the beginning of Phase Three or more a sort of epilogue to Phase Two?

[BatsDC]

I'm thinking more of an epilogue to Phase 2, but I imagine it could be viewed as either, unless it has distinct ties to an arc carrying over from Phase 2 or leading into Phase 3.

[Fudgie]

I think about 300-400 mil domestic.

[psylockolussus]

Domestic - More than 300,000 million
Worldwide - More than 700,000 million

[Matarreyes]

Having read up on the predictions threads for IM1 and IM2, I am now LOLing with hilarity. All the gloom and doom before the release of the first one, and complaints of underperformance after the release of the second. Honestly, I just hope the movie is badass, because we all know it will deliver fine financially, and I am more concerned about getting a nice full circle feeling to the entire RDJ-IM franchise.

That said, I do hope for a billion, riding on the Avengers fame. Many have said that the movie greatest accomplishment was the balancing of so many superheroes, but it was actually down to preventing RDJ/Tony Stark from running away with the script .

[Tony Stark]

I still think people are underpredicting this movie. If the reviews are good, this is going to be at least 900M WW, and likely 1B. No it's not another Avengers, and it doesn't have to be, but predictions of 750M or 800M, when completely average films like Madagascar 3, and Ice Age are able to make that much shows that people are being too conservative.

Again, if the reviews are terrible, then those numbers may be accurate, as it will still open big, but have a bigger decline. However there's not much competition and Star Trek screwed up by really capitalizing on the first movie, by waiting way too long to release the second movie. I suspect Star Trek will finish about where the first one did.

I predict the top two grossing movies of the summer will be Iron Man 3 and Fast 6. Monsters U and Despicable Me 2 may come in second, but will definitely be no. 3/4 and either of the two will have a chance to be the highest grossing animated movie of the summer.

I think that Star Trek, MoS, Wolverine and Lone Ranger will duke it out for 5-8, Star Trek may do significantly better if it's a huge improvement over the first film, and gets positive reviews. MoS might be a great film but it's in a horrible place in the summer. June releases typically never come out on top. Warner really screwed up the release date here, and should have learend from Green Lantern. Coming out a week before Monster U, MoS will only be in the no. 1 spot for a week.

There's going to be a billion dollar movie this summer, and looking at the competition IM3 has the best shot of the non animated movies. Fast 5 made 600M WW, don't see how the 6th movie is going to top it. Star Trek does not have the international audience. MoS is too new and will be hurt by it's June placement domestically, Lone Ranger might have potential with Jonny Depp, but Armie Hammer is not a well known star, and it's hard to say how this will play internationally.

Sorry for the detractors, but the stars are alligned for IM3. I would not be saying this if Avengers hadn't raised the bar, but the Marvel brand is now THE brand in comics. They've established their dominace and IM3 will reap the rewards.
Bombs of the summer will be Great Gatsby, Kick Ass 2, Hangover III (this could be big based on the others, but I'm going on the 'one too many times' theory), and Percy Jackson 2 for waiting too long between films and for the first one not gathering an audience, and deviating from the book far too much.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

I still think people are underpredicting this movie. If the reviews are good, this is going to be at least 900M WW, and likely 1B. No it's not another Avengers, and it doesn't have to be, but predictions of 750M or 800M, when completely average films like Madagascar 3, and Ice Age are able to make that much shows that people are being too conservative.

There's an argument to be made for why IM3 could gross a billion but this isn't it. "It can do it because Madagascar and Ice Age are successful" is not a good argument.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

There's an argument to be made for why IM3 could gross a billion but this isn't it. "It can do it because Madagascar and Ice Age are successful" is not a good argument.

That wasn't the basis of my argument. The point is two very average to below average movies made between 700M and 900M WW. Everyone underestimating IM3's performance is doing so based on the first two films. Avengers changed that dynamic. I'm not saying it's going to do Avengers type buisness, but it's certainly capable of making a billion WW.

Again if you take IM1 and 2's ticket sales with inflation and 3D boost, that would get you somewhere in the neighborhood of 375-380M.

The film will be a lock to open in the 150's, and from there, as long as it holds well when Star Trek is released, 400 is very doable.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

That wasn't the basis of my argument. The point is two very average to below average movies made between 700M and 900M WW. Everyone underestimating IM3's performance is doing so based on the first two films. Avengers changed that dynamic. I'm not saying it's going to do Avengers type buisness, but it's certainly capable of making a billion WW.

Again if you take IM1 and 2's ticket sales with inflation and 3D boost, that would get you somewhere in the neighborhood of 375-380M.

The film will be a lock to open in the 150's, and from there, as long as it holds well when Star Trek is released, 400 is very doable.

I think your fault is your starting point: that Ice Age and Madagascar can be discarded as "average to below average." In terms of quality, that may well be true. . . but they are entries in successful franchises that are specifically targeted at kids and families. That's a recipe for higher gross numbers, because of all the kids who will drag their parents to the movie ( and vice versa ) based on prior exposure to the franchise.

[Matarreyes]

Originally Posted by metaphysician

I think your fault is your starting point: that Ice Age and Madagascar can be discarded as "average to below average." In terms of quality, that may well be true. . . but they are entries in successful franchises that are specifically targeted at kids and families. That's a recipe for higher gross numbers, because of all the kids who will drag their parents to the movie ( and vice versa ) based on prior exposure to the franchise.

Well, IM3 is a part of a very successful franchise, so that is there... It´s also a family friendly movie, much more so than Batman movies for example (acceptable for kids) and also more than the rest of MCU movies prior to the Avengers (all of which have been pretty fantastical and therefore "scary" for GA).

[metaphysician]

Still not comparable. Movies that expect to draw crowds of families with under-eight kids just aren't comparable to anything else.

[Tony Stark]

You're missing the point. While both Ice Age and Madagascar did well domestically it was not what you expect from a 800M movie.

400M domestic 600M foreign is my prediction. Although if reviews are not good, I'll lower that expectation. But if the film lives up to the bar that the trailer seems to set, we are in for something special.

And please don't anyone tell me that IM is not Batman. He is now. Yes IM is a top tier comic book hero specifically due to the movies and RDJ. Spider-man is still Marvel's flagship character, but IM is now right up there with him.

[Fudgie]

I say it stands a hell of a good chance of doing at least 800 mil WW.

[Superhero 101]

After seeing the jammed pack Summer schedule i think IM3 will make around 700-800 i think i predicted 900 but There are lots of big movies coming out right after IM3

[spideymouse]

Originally Posted by Superhero 101

After seeing the jammed pack Summer schedule i think IM3 will make around 700-800 i think i predicted 900 but There are lots of big movies coming out right after IM3

My thoughts exactly.