Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[BH/HHH]

Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?

I hope it can make $700 mill or more myself I guess it's gonna depend on whether the hype surrounds it like it did with the Dark Knight.

[SuperAl]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?

I hope it can make $700 mill or more myself I guess it's gonna depend on whether the hype surrounds it like it did with the Dark Knight.

500 would prolly guarantee a sequel, tho it depends on how good Zack controlled the budget.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?
.

Not really.

A general rule of thumb is a movie has to make double the budget and marketing cost to be profitable.

[Excel]

This movie has more variables than usual to take into the equation.

Let me start by saying the folks saying it could have used a fight or two, or that it looks too serious, etc perhaps have a point. But, all trailers are not created equal, especially for a Superman movie. For example, STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS's teaser might get people more excited than MAN OF STEELs does, which I suppose is the point, right? In this instance, not exactly.

Everyone needs to know thing: the most important piece of marketing for a sequel is the film which precedes. If that film sucks, and the trailer rocks, it can offset it somewhat. But it is a rule of thumb - the preceding film is the most important piece. The approach to making a trailer for a sequel is entirely different than it is for making a trailer for a film which is a franchise beginner. The trailers fundamentally need to accomplish different things in order to generate excitement.

This is the best teaser for this kind of film I can recall. It it not being fanboyish, either (though obviously that side of me is excited). The movies which Man of Steel wants to compare 'favorably' with in terms of marketing material effectiveness are Transformers, Iron Man, Spider-man (2002), Star Trek, Batman Begins, Casino Royale, The Amazing Spider-man, etc. It is a moot point to compare the trailer with sequels, simply because there are no established characters here- everything is introductory. For Star Trek 2, the Batman sequels, the Iron Man sequels, etc - the strongest piece of marketing is the film preceding it, not the trailers. Superman has no previous film, rather it is starting from scratch. There are pre-set expectations that a film will be any good, for example, like there were with the Batman sequels, the Spider-man sequels (not so much the recent reboot), or Iron Man 2.

Therefore, making the film appear as one of quality & integrity, and one with interesting characters & storylines are the primary goals so that it is taken seriously. While Star Trek Into Darkness can just show money shot after money shot while only hinting at the characters because it knows it will be taken seriously instantly due to the popularity of the first film, it is *critical* for Man of Steels trailers to establish these foundation points before veering off more heavily into the story & action (which are easier sells in their own right as well).

Understand there will be nitpickers everywhere. If MOS advertised itself as all action with little story; if the recent trailer was more like a Spider-man trailer - it would have excited some people. But these people will get excited by 30 second tv spots. It would have generated plenty of criticism for not looking serious enough, or good enough. It is important for the marketers to satisfy this crowd - the quality judging crowd - before the satisfy the action junkie. Ones enthusiasm will lead to the other in this manner, but that does not happen if it goes the other way. One would ALWAYS prefer having people complain it looks too serious than saying it looks too silly.

I would say Man Of Steel has the, easily, the most well-made introductory trailer of any of those films. Star Trek & Transformers had all time great final theatrical trailers, but their winter-released trailers do not compare with Man Of Steels. Batman Begins trailer, which aired with Oceans 12 in winter 2004 (it was the one that ended in "WHERE ARE YOU!?"-"HERE") was decent, but nothing special. Casino Royales was all action, little substance.Spider-man winter 2001 trailer, which aired with The Fellowship Of The ring, is the one of truly comparable quality. That was quite different - Spider-man was sold as a popcorny crowd pleasing blockbuster, while Superman looks more like an Oscar worthy epic. But in terms of effectiveness, they are the best.

I've been in this a while. I am not as steady of a predictor as some here, but over the 6-7 years, nobody on the major box office predicting web sites as he's predicted more break outs & flops than myself. Try and remember how 'out there' these prediction seemed at the time they were made:

-Iron Man 300 million club - established July, 2007
-Transformers 250 million call - November 2006
-Pirates 3 - sub 300m club -winter 2006
-Narnia 2 under 200 million club - Winter 2007
-The Dark Knight over Indiana Jones - summer 2007
-American Gangster breaking out big - summer 2007
-Skyfall over 300 million, September, 2012
-Iron Man 2 under Iron Man, Sring 2010
-Inception > 250 million, spring 2010

Not bragging, I just have a decent eye for break outs. Man Of Steel is going to be the latest. If it had Iron Mans release date, I would be saying Superman will do 150/500+. This is going to be the Superman movie everyone has been waiting for. In June, I would stunned at under 120m/350/ if the marketing continues to impress. Frankly, it could go much higher.

[Excel]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?

I hope it can make $700 mill or more myself I guess it's gonna depend on whether the hype surrounds it like it did with the Dark Knight.

This is going to do very well overseas, I wouldn't worry about. Superman Returns got destroyed by Pirates 2 overseas (which made 600m+). Superheros, Christopher Nolan, and big special effects blockbusters always do well overseason.

I would be shocked at a penny under 600m, myself. I am feeling break out big time on this one.

[BH/HHH]

Ill see it at least 3 times not in 3D though

[Sun_Down]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

Not really.

A general rule of thumb is a movie has to make double the budget and marketing cost to be profitable.

If the budget is around $250M total (a little higher than the $225 figure I'm seeing), wouldn't $500M gross put it at about break-even?

[Robin91939]

It will make The Amazing Spider-man money.

Nolan's name gives it a lot of cache with the general audience.

If they market it correctly, kicking up the emphasis on action in the last 2-3 months before the release they will be fine.

-R

[Bruce Malone]

It's been so long since superman was properly sold to the public. So it'll be interesting to see if superman does indeed rank up-there with the other superhero box office heavy hitters or not?

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by Sun_Down

If the budget is around $250M total (a little higher than the $225 figure I'm seeing), wouldn't $500M gross put it at about break-even?

You forgot the 75 to 100 million for marketing.

[Ultimatehero]

I'd say somewhere around the higher 200's domestic, just like Batman Begins and The Amazing Spider-Man along with additional money from overseas. Asking much more than that I'd say is asking too much. Superman Returns IS going to hurt Man of Steel. Studios know that. Audiences have a notion of, "fool me once, shame on me. fool me twice, no thanks - I'm not going." HOWEVER it is the sequel where the money starts flowing in again. NO MOVIE with a bad predecessor that wasn't very favorable has ever done well - it's always fallen behind all the others in the franchise. This has hurt several amazing franchise film reboots after a less than stellar predecessor. Batman Begins had Batman & Robin. Man of Steel has Superman Returns. With that said, however, we ARE looking at Nolan's name being attached - so as long as the Batman component keeps on driving it - that should be something to combat it. Not completely, but it will help. I wouldn't be afraid of a sequel, if it gets a relatively good amount - AND audiences saying "they got it right!" and "that was awesome!" They WILL put a sequel into the works because this kind of film - a 'come back' always looks to make its earnings there. That's just in how these 'come back' films have performed.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Bruce Malone

It's been so long since superman was properly sold to the public. So it'll be interesting to see if superman does indeed rank up-there with the other superhero box office heavy hitters or not?

indeed. hopefully he is still popular and the public still loves him.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

^ Yes. Go to any fansite or forum right now and it's about 85% fangasms, 10% still wait and see, and 5% moaning. Not to mention the amount of coverage this has been getting is on the same level as IM3. This trailer has been ran on every blog and news site I've gone to since yesterday. Only a very select few films get as much attention as this has been getting. **** is real.

Fansites and forums??? LOL. c’mon it is a new trailer. fans are irrational about their hero. And as I said fans only contribute 0.0001 % of the box office number.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by sf2

Fansites and forums??? LOL. c’mon it is a new trailer. fans are irrational about their hero. And as I said fans only contribute 0.0001 % of the box office number.

Pretty much.

[GreenKToo]

Folks did the same with sr, predicting 400 mill dom and 700 or 800 mill ww. I know, I was here.
If it does 250 to 300 mill dom. i'll be happy. I bet wb would be too.

[TDK elbowstrike]

I think this film has the potential to break 700 mil.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I think people need to calm down and not overpredict the film. The Amazing Spider-Man fanboys were convinced the movie was a lock for 300mil domestically and 1bil worldwide and that didn't happen.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

Folks did the same with sr, predicting 400 mill dom. And 700 or 800 mill ww. I know, I was here.
If it does 250 to 300 mill dom. i'll be happy. I bet wb would be too.

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I think people need to calm down and not overpredict the film. The Amazing Spider-Man fanboys were convinced the movie was a lock for 300mil domestically and 1bil worldwide and that didn't happen.

Bingo.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Would $500 million WW be enough to greenlight a sequel?

I hope it can make $700 mill or more myself I guess it's gonna depend on whether the hype surrounds it like it did with the Dark Knight.

Depends how its received. If its generally liked then yes it certainly will. Batman Begins didn't set the box office on fire but it was well liked and sold many DVDs.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Star Trek made less than 400mil worldwide but it got a sequel because 257mil of that was from north America and the movie was very well liked. A well liked Superman movie that makes 500mil will be considered a great haul.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I think people need to calm down and not overpredict the film. The Amazing Spider-Man fanboys were convinced the movie was a lock for 300mil domestically and 1bil worldwide and that didn't happen.

and how many fanboys underpredicted Avengers and Skyfall?

100 percent.

Nobody knows what MOS is gonna make.

[GreenKToo]

Even if it only makes....say 235 mill dom, but has excellent wom and a hunger for more, it will be a success. I'm not saying thats all its capable of making tho. I believe it will be very similar to what happened with BB.

[Excel]

Originally Posted by sf2

Fansites and forums??? LOL. c’mon it is a new trailer. fans are irrational about their hero. And as I said fans only contribute 0.0001 % of the box office number.

People who have followed the box office long enough have a pretty good idea of what sells.

A year from now, this trailer will be the stuff of legends. Just like the transformers, spiderman, and independence day trailers of past. It will be that "Ah. yes, I should have seen this coming the second that trailer hit".

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

and how many fanboys underpredicted Avengers and Skyfall?

100 percent.

Nobody knows what MOS is gonna make.

And how many overpredicted ASM?

[ElDuderino]

With the reaction to the trailer, I'm thinking this has a good chance of besting 700 million. Plus it's shaping up to not have much competition around it.