Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

and how many fanboys underpredicted Avengers and Skyfall?

100 percent.

Nobody knows what MOS is gonna make.

Fact is people tend to over predict these reboots. I was constantly told that Batman Begins was a lock to make 300mil and it didn't, I was told that Superman Returns was a lock to make 300mil and it didn't and I was told that TAS was not only going to make a billion worldwide but that it was going to make over 300mil in the states because everybody hated the Raimi movies and that it was going to be a Batman Begins reception wise and none of those predictions came true. There is more over predicting of reboots than under predicting.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

And how many overpredicted ASM?

Most people predicted 800 m for Avengers.

At least the people who overpredicted ASM weren't off by 600-700 million.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Fact is people tend to over predict these reboots. I was constantly told that Batman Begins was a lock to make 300mil and it didn't, I was told that Superman Returns was a lock to make 300mil and it didn't and I was told that TAS was not only going to make a billion worldwide but that it was going to make over 300mil in the states because everybody hated the Raimi movies and that it was going to be a Batman Begins reception wise and none of those predictions came true. There is more over predicting of reboots than under predicting.

I don't know about Batman Begins or Superman Returns but most predicted 275-285 m for ASM.

Not terribly far from the truth.

[TDK elbowstrike]

Idk... 700 mil world wide might not be far off.

MOS has been marketing the story or narrative aspects of the film so far.

We haven't seen that much action.

If the 2nd and 3rd act, especially the climax, have as much non-stop drag-out action as I suspect then people in every country will see this multiple times.

It has soooo much potential in the action department, Kryptonian superfights in a modern day Metropolis= possibly the best superhero fights of any superhero movie to date.

And that's something people are going to want to see more than once.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by MessiahDecoy123

I don't know about Batman Begins or Superman Returns but most predicted 275-285 m for ASM.

Not terribly far from the truth.

I under predicted the movie so I'm not trying to get on a high horse or anything but most predictions I saw from excited fanboys were over 300mil here in the states.

TOS could make 800mil for all I know but I'm a little gun shy about reboot boxoffice hyperbole after Spidey, Supes, TIH and Batman Begins failed to live up to it.

[Mr. Dent]

Pessimists are making me laugh. I'm not even a Superman fanboy and I can see that this is going to do over 600m at the very least. 500m is way low balled. This feels lik it will be an event film comparable to IM.

[GreenKToo]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I under predicted the movie so I'm not trying to get on a high horse or anything but most predictions I saw from excited fanboys were over 300mil here in the states.

TOS could make 800mil for all I know but I'm a little guy shy about reboot boxoffice hyperbole after Spidey, Supes, TIH and Batman Begins failed to live up to it.

Agreed. I myself thought 250 to 275 for sr. WROOONG!! I didnt predict anything on bb. So yeah, im not about to say a gazillion dollars for mos.

[GreenKToo]

Better to low ball and be surprised than predict the moon and be sorely disappointed.

[GreenKToo]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I under predicted the movie so I'm not trying to get on a high horse or anything but most predictions I saw from excited fanboys were over 300mil here in the states.

TOS could make 800mil for all I know but I'm a little guy shy about reboot boxoffice hyperbole after Spidey, Supes, TIH and Batman Begins failed to live up to it.

Agreed. I myself thought 250 to 275 for sr. WROOONG!! I didnt predict anything on bb. So yeah, im not about to say a gazillion dollars for mos.

[sf2]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

Better to low ball and be surprised than predict the moon and be sorely disappointed.

Indeed.
Btw never thought skyfall n avenger doing that great.

[Mr. Dent]

That just means you guys aren't good at predicting lol.

[terry78]

As soon as I saw reactions to Avengers I knew it was going to have legs to a point. Some flicks you can just tell beforehand.

[Musty002]

I think the key thing here is Zack Synder's name in public audience and movie goers thoughts. He has a very horrible track record of late. If I was head of advertisement for Man Of Steel, I make sure the posters and trailers will mention Nolan name a lot more than Synder's.

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by sf2

Btw never thought skyfall n avenger doing that great.

No one did.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by Musty002

I think the key thing here is Zack Synder's name in public audience and movie goers thoughts. He has a very horrible track record of late. If I was head of advertisement for Man Of Steel, I make sure the posters and trailers will mention Nolan name a lot more than Synder's.

No normal person is going to automatically link Snyder's name to a bad film. They're advertising him as the director of Watchmen and 300. Good enough.

[SuperAl]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

No normal person is going to automatically link Snyder's name to a bad film. They're advertising him as the director of Watchmen and 300. Good enough.

Thats like saying people would directly associate Whedon with all his canceled shows and boxoffice failures. The GA doesnt really care. Snyder isnt really a household name.

[GreenKToo]

All I can say is i'd hate to be a betting man on this, because it could go either way, i.e., bb numbers or spidey 1 numbers. ( i think a little better than bb myself ) but who knows.

[CaptainStacy]

I think around 600 million WW is a lock, based on the trailer (which was excellent) and the fact that Nolan's name is attached to this movie. Make the recent rumor that Gotham City's number 1 hero is having a cameo at the end a real thing, and that number might even go up considerably.

[UaalaDan]

I think this movie is going to make at least 650 million. That's a certainty, imo. If it's damn good, I know I will probably watch it 5 times at least...in 3D. I hated SR and still saw it 3 times, lol.

[Excel]

There is a huge difference between fanboys predicting box office results, and people who predict for sport. Boxoffice.com forums, world of kj, filmgasm, mojo and a few other places are forums of people who only predict box office...for every single movie that comes out. They're pretty good.

The fact that Man Of Steels average predict. among more established predictors is in the 300m range speak, & it is a non sequel, for itself. W.B. have a big hit on their hands.

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie

No one did.

While nobody saw Avengers doing quite as well as it did, myself & a few others all thought Skyfall was going to do 300 millionish.

Anyone worth their salt should have known TASM wasn't going to touch the previous films. In fact, it's 260ish finish is a lot higher then most anticipated it would go. It also in the same mid 200s area Batman Begins & Superman Returns inflate to.

Though there are intelligent predictors at other sites, KJ has the best 6-7 predictors on the web. Comparing them to box office theory is like comparing professionals to amateurs. For both weekly analysis & long range predictions, they're the best. Anybody interested in box office should eye the posts by 'Dr. Lecter', 'Magnus', 'Xaiyun', 'Zingy', 'Madgez', and a few others. Most of them have decent real jobs involving statistical analysis & just do this for a hobby, and have for a while.

http://www.worldofkj.com/forum/viewt...p?f=12&t=67194

The general consensus for TASM was 125-140 for the 6 day, 250m ish total. Most of them saw Superman Returns flopping too, actually. General sentiment before tracking was released (which showed supes opening to 100+5 day) was 80/200ish. Right what it did.

I wasnt there for Batman Begins - but they all saw The Dark Knight and Avengers breaking out, though nobody thought they could go as high as they did. Most of them are feeling a similar break out vibe for MOS after the trailer.

[Excel]

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie

$700M is already in that territory with all due respect.

Let's be realistic about the worldwide gross and keep it around $500M. $100M up from Superman Returns with the average price of tickets gone up plus 3D/IMAX bumps. That I could see. Superman is still viewed as an American superhero, hiring a British actor will make no difference.

Superman Returns inflates to 245 I believe. Includie 3-D and Imax bumps (which is at least a 10% increase) and you're at 270 million 2013 dollars in tickets sales. Worth keeping in mind.

Something a lot of people are discounting is Superman Returns wasnt yesterday, it was 7 years ago. It sold a fairly impressive # of tickets at the time, considering it inflates to just under 250 million in todays terms.

To be frank, Superman Returns # of admissions is about as low as I think a contemporary Superman movie can go. Superheros are really popular right now, to state the obvious, and he is he grand daddy. SR had little going for it other than the name SUPERMAN. SR's admissions #s are the lowest I envision Man Of Steel doing, which - with inflation, 3D, and expanded Imax - are a bit north of 250 million.

It is not being fanboyish to say MOS should have little trouble outgrossing TASM if the marketing continues to own.

[Visualiza]

If we're assuming that the movie is good, I'd say 700M+ is a safe bet. CBMs have been on a roll lately and Supes is a household name all around the world. This movie could very well elevate the genre yet again, as quite a few films have also done recently...but time will tell.

[dark_b]

i hope MOS makes enough money for a sequel. because i will not survive if i have to again watch a 1 hour origin movie. Sony i am looking at you.

[Visualiza]

Originally Posted by dark_b

i hope MOS makes enough money for a sequel. because i will not survive if i have to again watch a 1 hour origin movie. Sony i am looking at you.

Agreed, but I don't think it will come to that. The entire cast & crew of Returns was greenlit for a sequel for years, it just never fell through. I'm pretty sure that, come Hell or high water, this movie is the start of a new franchise. The worst case scenario that I could envision is something akin to what happened with Ang Lee Hulk vs. Leterrier Hulk, in that the sequel was a soft reboot that won't retread the origin. I could live with that.

[Joe]

This ^