MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

[Luíz]

Iron Man 3:

Budget: 200m
Domestic: 405m
Foreign: 550m
Worldwide: 955m

Thor: The Dark World

Budget: 200m
Domestic: 300m
Foreign: 420m
Worldwide: 720m

Captain America: The Winter Soldier

Budget: 160m
Domestic: 255m
Foreign: 310m
Worldwide: 565m

Guardians of the Galaxy:

Budget: 185m
Domestic: 230m
Foreign: 370m
Worldwide: 600m

Ant-Man:

Budget: 170m
Domestic: 210m
Foreign: 310m
Worldwide: 520m

The Avengers 2:

Budget: 260m
Domestic: 700m
Foreing: 1 bi
Worldwide: 1.7 bi

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by flickchick85

Avengers 2[/U]

Budget: $285M (though I totally agree that it will probably be closer to $300M whether Marvel admits it or not)

I'm definitely suspicious of any mnumber Marvel throws out. Supposedly the real number for A1 was $300 M, up from $220 M. Thius will make me wonder about the actual budget regardless of how high they go.

Even with the studio only getting half the box office gross of a film, I don't think a $350 M or even $400 M budget for Avengers 2 is suicide range, but I think they'll try to keep it down around $300 M and report $250 M.

[eddy]

Originally Posted by Jarnbjorn

The Avengers 2
Budget: 260M
Domestic: 550M
Foreign: 950M
Total: 1.6B

This adds up to 1.5 billion

[T"Challa]

I doubt Ant-man will need a 170 mill budget

[kedrell]

Yeah, I'd say $100M tops for the budget of an Ant-Man movie. Which is plenty.

[Kryptonian God]

Originally Posted by eddy

This adds up to 1.5 billion

LOL. True. My bad!

[flickchick85]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I'm definitely suspicious of any mnumber Marvel throws out. Supposedly the real number for A1 was $300 M, up from $220 M. Thius will make me wonder about the actual budget regardless of how high they go.

Even with the studio only getting half the box office gross of a film, I don't think a $350 M or even $400 M budget for Avengers 2 is suicide range, but I think they'll try to keep it down around $300 M and report $250 M.

Yeah $300M just looks like such a scary number for a budget, lol. Even when the movie is guaranteed to make a profit anyway. Regardless of what the budget ultimately turns out to be, I'm sure it will be reported as being in the $220-295M range.

[Darthkush]

Iron Man III: 330 million domestic.-Iron Man was already a big franchise before Avengers and this won't be any different. It'll do slightly better than the first two but won't be a vastly bigger performer due to the 2nd film not being as good.

Thor the dark world: 225 million domestic-Thor's release date makes me nervous. Isn't it two weeks before the Hunger Games sequel? That movie is gonna have a lot more hype than thor(hate to say it). If it had a better release date, i'd say it could easily do 250 million but 225 is where i'm placing my bet right now. Hell, it could end up not even breaking 200. All depends how big Hunger Games is.

Captain America the winter soldier-240 million domestic-For now, I think Cap's sequel will outgross Thor's only because Cap has more breathing room from other, bigger flicks and it's got the added bonus of having Black Widow, Shield, etc and other stuff from the Avengers movie.

Guardians of the Galaxy-120 million domestic. I think it's a lock for 100 million as long as they make it known to the general public that this is part of the Marvel slate that leads to the Avengers sequel. After that, it will depend solely on how good the film is and how much hype they put behind it. I see it going as high as 150 but no higher.

Avengers 2- 545 million domestic. Could have the Dark Knight Rises effect. I.e. it'll still be huge but may only hit 500 million as opposed to 600. Unless it's even bigger than the first and totally dominates unopposed that summer but if Star Wars Episode 7 and Justice League really do drop that summer as planned, I don't think it'll be possible for Avengers to do something crazier(like a 700 or 800 million).

Ant Man is part of phase 3 but I see it doing 100 million as well. Maybe 150 million if people can get past his odd super powers.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I'm definitely suspicious of any mnumber Marvel throws out. Supposedly the real number for A1 was $300 M, up from $220 M. Thius will make me wonder about the actual budget regardless of how high they go.

Even with the studio only getting half the box office gross of a film, I don't think a $350 M or even $400 M budget for Avengers 2 is suicide range, but I think they'll try to keep it down around $300 M and report $250 M.

I think there's an easier explanation: the 300M number includes their marketing budget, which is otherwise always separate from the production budget anyway.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by metaphysician

I think there's an easier explanation: the 300M number includes their marketing budget, which is otherwise always separate from the production budget anyway.

Avengers marketing was in the realm of $150 M. That figure definitely doesn't count marketing.

I believe it was the Wall Street Journal that said the actuals for Avengers were $300 M production/ $175 M advertising. This film cost WAY more than $220 M to make, and way more than $80 M to market.

[jaqua99]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

Avengers marketing was in the realm of $150 M. That figure definitely doesn't count marketing.

I believe it was the Wall Street Journal that said the actuals for Avengers were $300 M production/ $175 M advertising. This film cost WAY more than $220 M to make, and way more than $80 M to market.

gosh, think about that. Just think about that for a second.

You see people making movies for fun, or for school, with actors, props, little effects. A few hundred dollars more or less.

the avengers costed almost $300 to make. Damn.

[metaphysician]

Assuming, of course, that number is accurate. Me, I am more inclined to go with the actual number the company that made it put out, rather than a figure invented by outside parties.

Is 220 on the low side? Yeah, but I'm perfectly willing to attribute it to Marvel Studios being very good at budget efficiency.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by metaphysician

Assuming, of course, that number is accurate. Me, I am more inclined to go with the actual number the company that made it put out, rather than a figure invented by outside parties.

Is 220 on the low side? Yeah, but I'm perfectly willing to attribute it to Marvel Studios being very good at budget efficiency.

Have it your way.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by jaqua99

gosh, think about that. Just think about that for a second.

You see people making movies for fun, or for school, with actors, props, little effects. A few hundred dollars more or less.

the avengers costed almost $300 to make. Damn.

I've had arguments over that being excessive. Most of that money isn't spent on developing new technology for sfx, or blowing up sets, but rather on housing, and feeding a staff. The Hobbit had a nearly $1 M dollar coffee budget for it's over 1,000 workers over the course of a year.

[Saitou Hajime]

According to this site total costs were 473.2 million.

[psylockolussus]

My domestic box-office predictions:
Iron Man 3 - $300M+
Thor 2 - $200M+
Captain America 2 - $200M+
Guardians of the Galaxy - $75M+
The Avengers 2 - $400M+

[Edguy]

$75M? really?

Unless they fail at marketing, I believe Guardiens are going to do great. That is, as long as it doesn't s**k.

I mean, it's basically superheroes, Star Wars and Pixar in one movie. Kids are gonna eat that s**t up!

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by Edguy

$75M? really?

Unless they fail at marketing, I believe Guardiens are going to do great. That is, as long as it doesn't s**k.

I mean, it's basically superheroes, Star Wars and Pixar in one movie. Kids are gonna eat that s**t up!

That's what people said about Green Lantern.

I think if Guardians is going to underperform, it will be on TIH numbers, not John Carter numbers.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

That's what people said about Green Lantern.

I think if Guardians is going to underperform, it will be on TIH numbers, not John Carter numbers.

Green Lantern did suck though.

And I don't understand how you an have a $200M budget and have worse looking effects than a movie with a $140M budget (Captain America).

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

Green Lantern did suck though.

And I don't understand how you an have a $200M budget and have worse looking effects than a movie with a $140M budget (Captain America).

By having a director who doesn't really know what he's doing, and thus needing to redo the CGI at the last minute ( at extra cost, natch ).

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

That's what people said about Green Lantern.

I think if Guardians is going to underperform, it will be on TIH numbers, not John Carter numbers.

Yeah, there's no way GotG only makes $75M. It's really difficult to get a line on how much it will make this far out, but if the rumors about Star Lord appearing in the stinger of Iron Man 3 and Tony taking off into space to answer the Guardians' SOS are true, I don't see any way it makes less than $200M domestic. I mean, holy crap, if it becomes clear that Iron Man is going to hook up with the team at some point in their film, the hype will go through the roof. He is Marvel's most popular character and a guaranteed box office draw.

[blalex620]

Iron Man 3
Budget: 200 m
Domestic: 400 m
Foreign: 500 m
Total: 900 m

Thor 2
B: 180 m
D: 250 m
F: 350 m
T: 600 m

Cap 2
B: 170 m
D: 230 m
F: 300 m
T: 530 m

GotG
B: 160 m
D: 170 m
F: 250 m
T: 420 m

Avengers 2
B: 260 m
D: 600 m
F: 1.1 b
T: 1.7 b

Phase 2
B: 970 m
D: 1.650 b
F: 2.5 b
T: 4.15 b

If Phase 2 makes anywhere near these numbers Disney/Marvel is going to make a killing

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by xeno000

Yeah, there's no way GotG only makes $75M. It's really difficult to get a line on how much it will make this far out, but if the rumors about Star Lord appearing in the stinger of Iron Man 3 and Tony taking off into space to answer the Guardians' SOS are true, I don't see any way it makes less than $200M domestic. I mean, holy crap, if it becomes clear that Iron Man is going to hook up with the team at some point in their film, the hype will go through the roof. He is Marvel's most popular character and a guaranteed box office draw.

I think the film will be able to stand on its own without Iron Man honestly. If they do this thing the way it should be done, the story will be AMAZING, one of the best space films we've seen in a while. Iron Man will get the general audience to take notice of it, but I think it will be the quality of the film that shines through.

Originally Posted by blalex620

If Phase 2 makes anywhere near these numbers Disney/Marvel is going to make a killing

Funny thing is I think you're low-balling Iron Man, Thor, and GotG.

[blalex620]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Funny thing is I think you're low-balling Iron Man, Thor, and GotG.

I am low-balling Thor. GotG though I don't know. I want it to do major numbers but I feel like it's only going to do marginally better than Thor 1 which did 450 itself. Thor 2 could do TASM numbers which did 750 but I kept it conservative at 600 which it for sure will do. And as for Iron Man, 900 might be reaching seeing as IM2 only did 620-ish. My figure is taking into account the big China push for this film and the push from Avengers his character is going to get.

[Edguy]

My guess GotG either will make less than $350M world wide, or more than $600M. I'm putting my money on the high end!