MCU Phase 2 Box Office/Budget Prediction Thread

[darkslayer101]

Originally Posted by psylockolussus

What do you say to movies like John Carter, Watchmen and Green Lantern? Guardians of the Galaxy won't be the 1st scifi/action live action to underperform at the box-office and right now, I don't think it will perform really well at the box-office.

I am sure Marvel will find a way to tie up GOTG with MCU, just add like RDJ cameo and box office should do fine.

[lozzy.94]

Iron Man
Budget: 200 million
Box Office: 1 billion

Thor: The Dark World
Budget: 200 million
Box Office: 750 million

Captain America: Winter Soldier
Budget: 160 million
Box Office: 550 million

Guardians Of The Galaxy
Budget: 225 million
Box Office: 600 million

Avengers 2
Budget: 250 million
Box Office: 1.8 billion

[kedrell]

Why would GotG get a $225M budget? I think it'll be more like $150-175M at the most.

[JB-the-Hunter]

I honestly don't understand why some people think GotG will make more than Captain America 2. Cap is one of Marvel's biggest characters and his movie will potentially be the first blockbuster of 2014. Not to mention the fact that 4, maybe even 6 (Cap, Fury, Widow, Hill, Hawkeye? Coulson?) characters from The Avengers are returning in this one.

GotG on the other hand is a completely unknown property. I don't think it will bomb, but I think it will be the lowest grossing phase 2 movie. Probably around $300M-$400M world wide.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Why would GotG get a $225M budget? I think it'll be more like $150-175M at the most.

Maybe $175m, but a $150m budget is too low for a film that Feige described as being 95% in space. I'm thinking the film will be in excess of $200m as well.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

I honestly don't understand why some people think GotG will make more than Captain America 2. Cap is one of Marvel's biggest characters and his movie will potentially be the first blockbuster of 2014. Not to mention the fact that 4, maybe even 6 (Cap, Fury, Widow, Hill, Hawkeye? Coulson?) characters from The Avengers are returning in this one.

GotG on the other hand is a completely unknown property. I don't think it will bomb, but I think it will be the lowest grossing phase 2 movie. Probably around $300M-$400M world wide.

I think it will gross more than Cap because the potential for a high-concept space opera has a higher ceiling than a, as Feige called it, 70s political-thriller masquerading as a superhero film. I agree with most of lozzy.94's predictions, but I don't think Cap will gross much more than $450m unless it is universally acclaimed. You say he's one of their biggest characters, but that doesn't necessarily translate to BO numbers. Cap's first movie made $386m at the box office, which is respectable, and I believe all phase 2 films will see a boost on their gross because of the Avengers and the fact I believe they will be better films than their phase 1 counterparts. However, Cap was one of the less memorable characters in the Avengers, his movie doesn't have as much to offer as Thor's 9 realm hopping adventure, and overseas he's just not going to be as popular as Iron Man or Thor, which makes me think his second movie will do at most $450m, which is still a bonafide blockbuster.

Again, Cap is one of Marvel's most recognizable characters but that does not mean his BO numbers are going to do better than a film that, if done right, will have much more of a broad appeal.

Also, you say Guardians is an unknown property, but it is still going to be marketed as being tied into The Avengers and the MCU and will have Disney backing it as well. Just look what Disney was able to do with Oz, which has absolutely no precedent other than Disney marketing and it is going to open at $80-100m over the weekend. With all that backing Guardians it has a much better chance than a simple "unknown property".

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

I believe all phase 2 films will see a boost on their gross because of the Avengers and the fact I believe they will be better films than their phase 1 counterparts. However, Cap was one of the less memorable characters in the Avengers, his movie doesn't have as much to offer as Thor's 9 realm hopping adventure, and overseas he's just not going to be as popular as Iron Man or Thor, which makes me think his second movie will do at most $450m, which is still a bonafide blockbuster.

I disagree that Captain America was one of the less memorable characters in Avengers. He had the most screen time (Yes, even more than RDJ), was the first Avenger shown, gave everyone their orders in the final battle and had a lot of meaningful and memorable scenes. I also disagree that Cap 2 has less to offer than the other phase 2 films. That's like saying a Batman movie has less to offer than a Superman/Flash/GL/WW movie, and even if that's true, the general audience and studio execs haven't seen it that way thus far. I'd bet money that Captain America will gross 500M+ and more than GotG, especially if the movie looks action packed. This is coming from someone who's looking forward to GotG than most people on this board.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Overseas he's just not going to be as popular as Iron Man or Thor, which makes me think his second movie will do at most $450m, which is still a bonafide blockbuster.

The First Avenger made $15m more oversees than it did domestically, and typically franchise sequels tend to go up higher oversees than they do domestically. Iron Man to Iron Man 2 for example. or TDK to TDKR. Both of those sequels made less domestically than their predicessors and still made more worldwide due to a big overseas boost. But even if you simply keep the ratio the same rather than factoring in the inevitable big oversees rise, and add the incalculable but certainly guessable Avengers boost (Which in my opinion is about $100m both domestically and overseas) that should put it well over $450m anyway. At LEAST $500m (That is if doesn't suck). If you factor in the modern setting, multiple returning Avengers characters, and the mere awesomeness of the Winter Soldier story line however, it could potentially go even higher.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Maybe $175m, but a $150m budget is too low for a film that Feige described as being 95% in space. I'm thinking the film will be in excess of $200m as well.

$200M is quite a bit higher than usual for such an unknown quantity like GotG. Most initial efforts come in around $150M to start and then get bigger if the initial attempt succeeds. Marvel Studios is very well known for their frugality.

[Mr. Dent]

Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter

I disagree that Captain America was one of the less memorable characters in Avengers. He had the most screen time (Yes, even more than RDJ), was the first Avenger shown, gave everyone their orders in the final battle and had a lot of meaningful and memorable scenes. I also disagree that Cap 2 has less to offer than the other phase 2 films. That's like saying a Batman movie has less to offer than a Superman/Flash/GL/WW movie, and even if that's true, the general audience and studio execs haven't seen it that way thus far. I'd bet money that Captain America will gross 500M+ and more than GotG, especially if the movie looks action packed. This is coming from someone who's looking forward to GotG than most people on this board.

Whenever I listen to podcasts or talk with people I know about the Avengers they always bring up Hulk, Iron Man, Black Widow, and to a lesser extent Loki, as the headlines of the Avengers, everyone else is an afterthought. Yes, Cap gave out orders and had very slightly more screentime than every one else (not so much so that it was noticeable though) he didn't have as many memorable moments as IM and Hulk, or even Black Widow. His most memorable moment in the film was the first confrontation with Loki and when he told the cops to set up a perimeter and after seeing his skills they did it. Other than that, his scenes were pretty cut and dry and didn't leave as much of an impact as the others I mentioned.

I'm not knocking Cap or anything, but it's hard to argue that him and even Thor had more memorable roles/moments in the film than Iron Man, Hulk, Black Widow, or Loki.

Your comparison of Cap to Batman is really reaching as well. They're two completely different types of characters and Batman is the most popular superhero period. He's on another level than Cap in more ways than one.

Also, I'd wager a friendly bet going the exact opposite way regarding GotG and Cap. It can go along with IM and Cap showing up in SHIELD.

The First Avenger made $15m more oversees than it did domestically, and typically franchise sequels tend to go up higher oversees than they do domestically. Iron Man to Iron Man 2 for example. or TDK to TDKR. Both of those sequels made less domestically than their predicessors and still made more worldwide due to a big overseas boost. But even if you simply keep the ratio the same rather than factoring in the inevitable big oversees rise, and add the incalculable but certainly guessable Avengers boost (Which in my opinion is about $100m both domestically and overseas) that should put it well over $450m anyway. At LEAST $500m (That is if doesn't suck). If you factor in the modern setting, multiple returning Avengers characters, and the mere awesomeness of the Winter Soldier story line however, it could potentially go even higher.

Your $100m swing on the domestic side is really high for this. I don't see it doing much more than $200m domestically and maybe $250m overseas. Of course Cao grossed more overseas. I never said it was unpopular overseas, just that it wasn't and won't be as popular as IM or Thor overseas. It just does not have the same marketing appeal as those two let alone Guardians.

Again, I'm not knocking Cap, I'm giving him his just do. I will even go so far as to say I can agree that this film can hit $500m, though I won't go much higher than that. I'm still saying Cap is a bonafide blockbuster and hit but a political thriller with heightened action and a naturally pro-American leaning can only go so far against something like Guardians, which has the potential to be absolutely huge.

Don't get me wrong, if Guardians is done badly then it will flop hard but if it knocks it out of the park it has a higher ceiling than Cap.

Originally Posted by kedrell

$200M is quite a bit higher than usual for such an unknown quantity like GotG. Most initial efforts come in around $150M to start and then get bigger if the initial attempt succeeds. Marvel Studios is very well known for their frugality.

Yes, but this movie is completely different than anything they've done so far. They will need at least $175m to be able to afford all the effects for this movie and it can easily end up being upwards of $200m.

[pr0xyt0xin]

Phase One
Total Worldwide Box Office =
$3,802,149,632

Phase Two
Iron Man 3:
WW = $850,000,000

Thor 2:
WW = $700,000,000

Cap 2:
WW = $650,000,000

Guardians of the Galaxy:
WW = $600,000,000

Avengers 2:
WW = $2,000,000,000

Total Worldwide Box Office =
$4,800,000,000

Phase Three
Ant-Man:
WW = $600,000,000

[Mr. Dent]

$600m for Ant-Man? Am I seeing that right? lol.

[blalex620]

Originally Posted by pr0xyt0xin

Phase One
Total Worldwide Box Office =
$3,802,149,632

Phase Two
Iron Man 3:
WW = $850,000,000

Thor 2:
WW = $700,000,000

Cap 2:
WW = $650,000,000

Guardians of the Galaxy:
WW = $600,000,000

Avengers 2:
WW = $2,000,000,000

Total Worldwide Box Office =
$4,800,000,000

Phase Three
Ant-Man:
WW = $600,000,000

As much as I hate to say it I don't see Ant-Man or GotG making these figures maybe 400-500 at most but here's truly hoping I'm wrong lol

[Micromind]

Hulk is a A - lister Marvel Superhero but, Hulk and The Incredible Hulk movies both were unable to break even at Box office.

Hulk
budget 137 mil
worldwide 245 mil.

The Incredible Hulk
budget 150 mil
worldwide 263 mil

X-Men:First Class
budget 160 mil
worldwide 353 mil

Captain America:The First Avenger
budget 140 mil.
worldwide 368 mil.

Thor
budget 150 mil.
worldwide 449 mil.


X Men first Class and Captain America were moderate successes, only Thor was very successful movie, still it made under 450 mil.

All movies made by Marvel Studios that are not Iron Man or Avengers have made less than 450 mil. And I am not even taking into consideration, the performance of movies like both Ghost Riders.

So, there No way that movie like Guardians of the Galaxy,Captain America: Winter Soldier, Ant-man will make more than 500 mil worldwide, and I am being generous.

Still, I could be wrong.

[def28]

Being post Avengers will give Cap and crew a decent boost. Those numbers def wont see a decline.

[Micromind]

I have considered that, that is why I think that maximum that movies such as Cap. America 2, GotG and Ant-Man can make is upto 500 mil, not more than that.

GotG and Ant-Man are not well known either.

[Mr. Dent]

You keep talking about Guardians like it's normal superhero movie, or like all Marvel movies are going to be the same and only gross x amount. These movies are movies all the same, if one is a knockout hit then it is a knockout hit. We shouldn't be using "well the rest of the Marvel movies grossed x' as justification because ever one of them is different.

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Whenever I listen to podcasts or talk with people I know about the Avengers they always bring up Hulk, Iron Man, Black Widow, and to a lesser extent Loki, as the headlines of the Avengers, everyone else is an afterthought. Yes, Cap gave out orders and had very slightly more screentime than every one else (not so much so that it was noticeable though) he didn't have as many memorable moments as IM and Hulk, or even Black Widow. His most memorable moment in the film was the first confrontation with Loki and when he told the cops to set up a perimeter and after seeing his skills they did it. Other than that, his scenes were pretty cut and dry and didn't leave as much of an impact as the others I mentioned.

Funny you should mention Black Widow, who happens to be in Captain America 2. Also, if you can use podcasts as an example I can go ahead and use tumblr. Captain America might be one of the single most popular characters on there period. He's just as popular as Iron Man (Well not at this moment since Iron Man 3 is on the verge of coming out, but rather around the time of The Avengers release) and more popular than Bruce/Hulk, Black Widow, and Hawkeye. Nobody's more popular than Loki though.
Also there's this:
1) comic book movie .com/fansites/rorschachsrants/polls/?poll=4295&view=results (3rd favorite character behind Hulk and Loki according to voters)

2) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xChGwFrDxE8 (Generated the most applause from the audience)

3) http://www.quibblo.com/quiz/h68_6bZ/...gers-character (Not exactly the best indication, but still. 3rd favorite character behind Iron Man and Loki)

4) http://www.quibblo.com/quiz/gPXqs-y/...e-best-avenger (2nd behind Iron Man)

Anyway, the point I'm trying to make is despite your opinion about Captain America, the rest of the world loved him in The Avengers.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

I'm not knocking Cap or anything, but it's hard to argue that him and even Thor had more memorable roles/moments in the film than Iron Man, Hulk, Black Widow, or Loki.

Once again, Black Widow is in Captain America 2. Also, it's not hard to argue at all. It's really not.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Your comparison of Cap to Batman is really reaching as well. They're two completely different types of characters and Batman is the most popular superhero period. He's on another level than Cap in more ways than one.

I'm not saying Captain America is as popular as Batman, I'm saying the same principles apply. Batman for all intents and purposes should never gross as much as it does if we use your logic. Especially because the action in those films are minimal and Nolan's Batman isn't even half as cool as his comic version. Also by your logic, The First Avenger shouldn't have done as well as First Class, and it ended up doing better.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Also, I'd wager a friendly bet going the exact opposite way regarding GotG and Cap. It can go along with IM and Cap showing up in SHIELD.

I'd bet the first one, not the second.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Your $100m swing on the domestic side is really high for this. I don't see it doing much more than $200m domestically and maybe $250m overseas. Of course Cap grossed more overseas. I never said it was unpopular overseas, just that it wasn't and won't be as popular as IM or Thor overseas. It just does not have the same marketing appeal as those two let alone Guardians.

I don't believe my $100m swing is too big at all. Especially if the film is as good as the comic storyline. Did you hear the applause from the comic con audience when they saw "The Winter Soldier" pop up on the screen? That was insane. Besides $100m would put it at $276m and I fully expect it to do around that number. You are extremely underestimating the appeal that Captain America has. Thanks to The Avengers people are beginning to understand how important he is to the Marvel universe. This is coming from one of the few people who predicted The Avengers would have the success it had when people thought you had to be dumb to think so.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Again, I'm not knocking Cap, I'm giving him his just do. I will even go so far as to say I can agree that this film can hit $500m, though I won't go much higher than that. I'm still saying Cap is a bonafide blockbuster and hit but a political thriller with heightened action and a naturally pro-American leaning can only go so far against something like Guardians, which has the potential to be absolutely huge.

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Don't get me wrong, if Guardians is done badly then it will flop hard but if it knocks it out of the park it has a higher ceiling than Cap.

It as a higher ceiling thematically and visually. That really doesn't have a lot to do with box office. The fact that Captain America grossed more than Star Trek oversees should tell you something. The logic you're using is based around the idea that despite the fact that Captain America is guaranteed to be in The Avengers 2 (which on its own will drive people to the theaters) and the Guardians are not, people will look past that because they'll automatically know that GotG has a higher ceiling... As a Guardians fan, I know that GotG has potential, but even if the trailers make it look epic Captain America is much more proven and will be the character most connected to The Avengers.

[Edguy]

Pixar/DreamWorks, except "cooler" and with superheroes vs. political action thriller

Which will the 10 year olds flock to, hmm..

[JB-the-Hunter]

Originally Posted by Edguy

Pixar/DreamWorks, except "cooler" and with superheroes vs. political action thriller except "cooler" and with superheroes

Which will the 10 year olds flock to, hmm..

fix'd...

and both

[pr0xyt0xin]

Originally Posted by blalex620

As much as I hate to say it I don't see Ant-Man or GotG making these figures maybe 400-500 at most but here's truly hoping I'm wrong lol

My hope is that Phase 2 (while being an entire movie shorter) still beats Phase 1 by $1 billion.

I think A2 making $2 billion is not too far a stretch. It should definitely beat A1, and I think in 2015 that number will be more than just James Cameron's turf. Assuming its good, it should break $2 billion.

Ant-Man specifically is directly off of that A2 high, like... 6 months directly. That's the reason I feel like it has a serious chance. Once people realize what Edgar Wright does with the film, it will have some real support.

My numbers are probably high (except IM3 which is decidedly low) but I'm going to stick with them and see how close I get.

[KangConquers]

I can't wait to see how Avengers effects the MCU. It'll be crazy seeing Captain America and Thor get legitimate blockbusters, and Iron Man joining the billionaire's club.

[blalex620]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I can't wait to see how Avengers effects the MCU. It'll be crazy seeing Captain America and Thor get legitimate blockbusters, and Iron Man joining the billionaire's club.

What???

[Kryptonian Titan]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I can't wait to see how Avengers effects the MCU. It'll be crazy seeing Captain America and Thor get legitimate blockbusters, and Iron Man joining the billionaire's club.

Same here.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by blalex620

What???

General standard for a "legitimate tent pole" is 200 M domestic/ 500 M ww. Cap and Thor's first movies both fell short of that (Though Thor came very close.) I believe both sequels are guaranteed to make that kind of money.

[Hawkingbird]

Yes, since Avengers both characters have gathered huge fan bases.