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View Poll Results: How much will Iron Man 3 make world wide?
500 Million 2 1.14%
550 Million 4 2.29%
600 Million 4 2.29%
650 Million 6 3.43%
700 Million 9 5.14%
750 Million 10 5.71%
800 Million 16 9.14%
850 Million 30 17.14%
900 Million 33 18.86%
950 Million 9 5.14%
1 Billion 31 17.71%
1.1 Billion 11 6.29%
1.2 Billion 3 1.71%
1.3 Billion 1 0.57%
1.4 Billion 0 0%
1.5 Billion 6 3.43%
Voters: 175. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-19-2013, 03:59 PM   #251
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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I agree with this. Right now I don't see any other potential films of that magnitude, unless catching fire's international audience explodes from hunger games.
I'm more interested in seeing if Hunger Games 2 can consecutively break 400 million domestically again, even more, if it can climb here at home.

That would be extremely impressive. I can see that one climbing to 800 Million+. It is, after all, a sequel to a strongly received blockbuster debut.

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Old 03-19-2013, 04:04 PM   #252
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I think MoS will outgross DoS.
I highly highly doubt that unless MOS gets Skyfall-type WOM. DOS just has too much of a built-in audience especially internationally and its coming a billion dollar movie. It has less competition as well

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Old 03-19-2013, 10:09 PM   #253
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Why are people even mentioning Star Trek, Hangover, and F'n'F in the same breath as Iron Man??? Both IM1 and IM2 had *all* the movies in those franchises beat years ago, and there is no way in hell IM3 is going to make less than its predecessors.

2013 is a three-film race, with IM3, MOS, and TH:TDOS jostling for the top spot on the podium. Everyone else is just competing for fourth place.
Thor:TDW will probably outgross MOS, especially coming after TA and IM3 just saying.

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Old 03-19-2013, 11:09 PM   #254
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

i think it could do close to a billion. its got that post avengers buzz going.

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:08 AM   #255
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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Thor:TDW will probably outgross MOS, especially coming after TA and IM3 just saying.
I think people are greatly underestimating MOS.
MOS is the *real* Superman reboot. It's the movie that will make Superman Returns vanish into the dustbin of film history, where it belongs.

I have high hopes for Thor, too, but I really don't see it getting as big a post-Avenger boost as IM3. Hemsworth's name still hasn't translated to box office gold for either Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and the boffo box office for TA1 and SWATH are far more likely to be attributable to his co-stars.

I still see 3 movies fighting for the billion-dollar club this year. Supes, Shellhead, and Preciousssssss.

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:19 AM   #256
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I think people are greatly underestimating MOS.
MOS is the *real* Superman reboot. It's the movie that will make Superman Returns vanish into the dustbin of film history, where it belongs.

I have high hopes for Thor, too, but I really don't see it getting as big a post-Avenger boost as IM3. Hemsworth's name still hasn't translated to box office gold for either Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and the boffo box office for TA1 and SWATH are far more likely to be attributable to his co-stars.

I still see 3 movies fighting for the billion-dollar club this year. Supes, Shellhead, and Preciousssssss.
Meh I just don't see MOS doing anywhere near a billion, I'd say around 700 million at the most but hey I could be wrong.

Of course Thor isn't going to get as big of a boost as IM, but Thor was the 3rd most popular character with audiences in TA. With that being said I see Thor:TDW doing somewhere around 700-750 million.

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:21 AM   #257
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
I think people are greatly underestimating MOS.
MOS is the *real* Superman reboot. It's the movie that will make Superman Returns vanish into the dustbin of film history, where it belongs.

I have high hopes for Thor, too, but I really don't see it getting as big a post-Avenger boost as IM3. Hemsworth's name still hasn't translated to box office gold for either Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and the boffo box office for TA1 and SWATH are far more likely to be attributable to his co-stars.

I still see 3 movies fighting for the billion-dollar club this year. Supes, Shellhead, and Preciousssssss.
^ Agree. I'd almost go so far to say that I'd be shocked if Thor outgrossed MoS, since I have it pegged for at least $800m and Thor for at most $700m. Even with the dud that was Superman Returns, the movie grossed $200m domestically without 3D, IMAX, and increased ticket prices we have today. With a better reception and Nolan's name attached, it should do even better here and overseas, especially with how developed overseas has become.

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Old 03-20-2013, 01:01 AM   #258
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).

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Old 03-20-2013, 01:21 AM   #259
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

I'd give MoS maybe a 5% chance of getting a billion WW. Just don't see it happening. I'm guessing $600M WW right now, give or take $50M.

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Old 03-20-2013, 01:54 AM   #260
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
Do those take into account international or just domestic? Because Hunger Games is heavily dependent on whether it can gain traction overseas this time.

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Old 03-20-2013, 01:55 AM   #261
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I'd give MoS maybe a 5% chance of getting a billion WW. Just don't see it happening. I'm guessing $600M WW right now, give or take $50M.
You're just lowballing the film. But okay.

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Old 03-20-2013, 02:12 AM   #262
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
Most of these movies don't even have trailer so it's really a pointless comparison.

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Old 03-20-2013, 03:05 AM   #263
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

I think Hunger Games will be in that 3rd or 4th spot fairly easily.. Jennifer Lawrence has blown up, as well as the Hunger Games franchise itself. I think her WW appeal is there and will surprise at the box office.

Also if anyone has read the books, the second one was by far the best. It still blows my mind that they can make the imho terrible third book into 2 movies.. literally nothing happens lol.

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Old 03-20-2013, 07:14 AM   #264
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
Star Trek is hardly a shoo-in for a billion. The 2009 movie made only $127M OS, a very anemic total that STD is sure to top but the increase won't be enough to put it over the billion dollar mark. Some are predicting a $400M domestic haul for it, which I personally doubt, but even at that it would have to make north of $600M OS to get there. Unfortunately for Trek, it simply isn't very popular in overseas markets. The addition of 3D will help some, but it won't be a nearly $500M boost in ticket sales, IMO.

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Old 03-20-2013, 08:05 AM   #265
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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Most of these movies don't even have trailer so it's really a pointless comparison.
It's still just estimates, but it's like using Metacritic or Rotten Tomatoes to get a consensus reading on a film. And the fact that those movies that are still a year or two away are already generating sustained hype means that the buzz is going to be through the roof for those movies in 2014 and 2015. (i.e., Avengers 2 is gonna be all like "Avatar and Titanic who?" and James Cameron is gonna be all like and Marvel Studios is gonna be all like $$$ $$$ )

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I think Hunger Games will be in that 3rd or 4th spot fairly easily.. Jennifer Lawrence has blown up, as well as the Hunger Games franchise itself. I think her WW appeal is there and will surprise at the box office.

Also if anyone has read the books, the second one was by far the best. It still blows my mind that they can make the imho terrible third book into 2 movies.. literally nothing happens lol.
3rd or 4th spot? Try tops. The *only* question this year about the #1 spot will be is it IM3, or Catching Fire? Nothing else even comes close to those numbers. Before THG came out in 2012, she was "Jennifer who?" Now she's J-Law, with a big freakin' gold statuette in her hand and the attention of the entire world.

THG and IM are no-brainers. Billion dollar bank, no question. It's the rest of the field that's going to have to play catch-up.

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Star Trek is hardly a shoo-in for a billion. The 2009 movie made only $127M OS, a very anemic total that STD is sure to top but the increase won't be enough to put it over the billion dollar mark. Some are predicting a $400M domestic haul for it, which I personally doubt, but even at that it would have to make north of $600M OS to get there. Unfortunately for Trek, it simply isn't very popular in overseas markets. The addition of 3D will help some, but it won't be a nearly $500M boost in ticket sales, IMO.
Could well be the case. If so, then Hunger Games and IM3 are the *only* movies this year likely to breach a billion. Even The Hobbit's numbers dropped way off when it failed to live up to LOTR expectations --- I'm now personally expecting to see DOS finish up around 800 mil WW, tops.

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Old 03-20-2013, 09:23 AM   #266
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I think people are greatly underestimating MOS.
MOS is the *real* Superman reboot. It's the movie that will make Superman Returns vanish into the dustbin of film history, where it belongs.
Supes has a lot more baggage than just SR. He's got a decades long perception attached to him & that perception is widely seen as a negative - "lame, goody two shoes, uninteresting, overpowered, outdated".

Sure they'll pimp Nolan's name out as much as possible but how much will that off set the negative perception?

Also, while SR managed $200m US it only squeaked $191m OS. OS very often doesn't catch on until a sequel rolls around, & OS is essential if you want to hit 1bn.

Quote:
I have high hopes for Thor, too, but I really don't see it getting as big a post-Avenger boost as IM3.
It only needs a bump of $250m to cross $700m, quite achievable. If Taylor & crew deliver in a big way it could easily go higher.

Quote:
Hemsworth's name still hasn't translated to box office gold for either Cabin in the Woods or Red Dawn, and the boffo box office for TA1 and SWATH are far more likely to be attributable to his co-stars.
Do you think Cavill is a bigger name than Hemsworth, then?

Depp's name didn't translate to BO gold for Dark Shadows or the Tourist. Not to put Hemsworth on Depp's level but you get my point. Type & quality of the movie need to taken into account.

Thor is what we're talking about, not Cabin or Dawn, and Hemsworth's Thor just had a huge amount of positive (that's crucial) exposure in TA.

Quote:
I still see 3 movies fighting for the billion-dollar club this year. Supes, Shellhead, and Preciousssssss.
And I still don't see any reason, other than fan wishing, to put Supes in that company. He has far too much of a mountain to climb.

Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63
I'm 99% sure that's just for the US.

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Old 03-20-2013, 11:58 AM   #267
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
Just for gits and shiggles, I checked HSX "stock" for the movies of 2013-2015(ish). These are the "200 Club" movies that are currently trading at more than 200 "internet dollars" per share ---- in other words, that are currently generating the most hype, buzz, interest:


The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
Aaaand The Wolverine is nowhere to be found. Figures. =P

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:38 PM   #268
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^Perhaps that'll change when the trailer hits.

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:46 PM   #269
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THG2 being a billion dollar no brainer I just do not see. It wasn't so hot OS with the first film and this isn't a case of a 1st movie coming out several years ago before China expanded or whatever excuse is now popular for why OS has grown. THG1 came out just a year ago and I'm pretty damn sure there's not been any major shift in OS theaters in that short of a time. And I'm in no way sure THG2 is gonna increase domestically as well. Pretty much universally when films do more than $400M DOM the next film in the series makes less. I think it's because once you get that high you're pretty much reaching a saturation point and don't have any room to grow. It's the reason TDKR made less than TDK DOM and why I'm very confident Avatar 2 and TA2 will make less than their predecessors DOM.

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Old 03-20-2013, 12:52 PM   #270
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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You're just lowballing the film. But okay.

I disagree. I think I'm being pretty even handed regarding MoS. MoS has baggage to overcome, that it just a fact. It has a less than ideal release date and Nolan's name can only sell so much. Now I think it'll be good and turn a profit enough for WB to make another or just push forward with the JL film but I don't see MoS making any kind of records. And isn't that enough?

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Old 03-20-2013, 01:13 PM   #271
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I really don't think SR is baggage for MoS, it's not so negatively regarded that there's a stigma around Superman films, not to mention it came out so long ago that most people aren't really going to relate MoS to it. But we can agree to disagree.

And yes, it's enough, but that doesn't change that it will do MORE than enough. $800m.

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Old 03-20-2013, 02:18 PM   #272
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cherokeesam View Post
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire 351.41
Iron Man 3 336.43
The Avengers Sequel 321.22
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 1 291.85
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Pt 2 271.42
Star Trek: Into Darkness 263.38
Star Wars Ep. VII 252.68
Man of Steel 245.39
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug 244.43
Avatar 2 237.81
The Hobbit: There and Back Again 236.05
Thor: The Dark World 234.51
Monsters University 222.87
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 206.60
Oz: The Great and Powerful 206.49
Captain America: The Winter Soldier 201.39
X-Men: Days of Future Past 200.63

Looks like the shoo-ins for the billion-dollar club this year --- and any 3D will almost certainly put them in --- are THG:CF, IM3, ST:ID, MOS, and TH:TDOS. Thor still has an outside shot of making it, unless The Hobbit and MOS fall south of the mark (in which case Hunger Games, IM3, and Trek will make it a three-way race).
I can see ST:ID getting a boost after the positive reception of the first film, but I don't see it making $1B, especially if Bond (given his popularity) only made it by a little more.

Thor won't make any more than ASM did most likely, even given coming off of TA.

MoS I feel is in the same boat as TDK was; if it has great reviews, great performances and awesome WoM, then it'll make $1B easily. Otherwise, again, I don't see it exceeding 700-800M.

I agree that Hobbit and CF will make it, the Hobbit more so than CF.

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Old 03-20-2013, 07:44 PM   #273
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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For me, the ceiling is $900M worldwide. The Avengers restored some goodwill for the IM franchise, but not a huge boost.

I think $350M-$385M domestic (yes, even with 3D) and $550M-$600M international sounds good enough for IM3. If WOM is good like it was for the first IM pic or Avengers, it could make more.
I don't really think Iron Man 2 was damaging as far as the general public was concerned.

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Old 03-20-2013, 07:46 PM   #274
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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I really don't think SR is baggage for MoS, it's not so negatively regarded that there's a stigma around Superman films, not to mention it came out so long ago that most people aren't really going to relate MoS to it. But we can agree to disagree.

And yes, it's enough, but that doesn't change that it will do MORE than enough. $800m.
But it is not just about SR.
There has not been a hit Superman movie since 1980.
The Franchise has a lot to prove and a lot of baggage in the form of some pretty crappy movies .

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Old 03-20-2013, 08:07 PM   #275
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Default Re: The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

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It only needs a bump of $250m to cross $700m, quite achievable. If Taylor & crew deliver in a big way it could easily go higher.



Do you think Cavill is a bigger name than Hemsworth, then?

Depp's name didn't translate to BO gold for Dark Shadows or the Tourist. Not to put Hemsworth on Depp's level but you get my point. Type & quality of the movie need to taken into account.

Thor is what we're talking about, not Cabin or Dawn, and Hemsworth's Thor just had a huge amount of positive (that's crucial) exposure in TA.


And I still don't see any reason, other than fan wishing, to put Supes in that company. He has far too much of a mountain to climb.
Well said, I'm loving everything I've seen from MOS so far but honestly Thor 2 just has much more going for it. I'm not saying MOS will do bad by any means, I just don't think it'll be as big as Thor:TDW or anywhere near IM3.

Like I said, Thor was the 3rd most popular character in a 1.5 billion dollar film his sequel film is gonna do NUMBERS.

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