The North Korean Situation II

[Destructus86]

Originally Posted by JJJ's Ulcer

Let's not get too carried away. NK has done this before.

I'm not as worried about a war breaking out as I was in 2010 when they sunk the Cheonan sub and shelled Yeonpyeong island near the demarcation line. Those were real military provocations with military and civilian casualties. Missile tests, cyberhacking and fiery rhetoric is worrisome, but also something NK engages in almost yearly. They're probably just probing SK's cyber-defenses, which they have done before.

Pretty much everyone seems to think this is a lot more serious. And it really is.

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Originally Posted by Marvolo

It was random number. Its value is irrelevant to the point I was making which is that there is a line that when crossed our government would begin shifting assets East. They haven't done it yet that I have seen.

Speaking to your point, I'm not sure what the current administration would do, but they cant evacuate all of California regardless of the percentage. They would get valuable assets out, and leave the rest to the missile shield. As for a stand-off, we are already doing that with UN sanctions, and our military is already posted in the pacific and we currently shifting more of our forces over there. So it is obviously above a 1% chance they will launch at us.

(A) they lack the capacity to hit California with any kind of missile right now (although I can't speak for five years down the line). I think currently there's a 0% chance of California getting hit by North Korean missiles. I just don't think their missiles have that kind of long-range capability. Hawaii on the other hand? I'm not sure.

(B) I wouldn't say the current UN sanctions constitute a "stand-off." Things could get a LOT more serious. Although the B52s that were buzzing near the DMZ for those drills were a bit worrisome.

[JJJ's Ulcer]

Originally Posted by Destructus86

Pretty much everyone seems to think this is a lot more serious. And it really is.

Who is "pretty much everyone"? Because business is continuing as usual in Seoul and my Korean colleagues and ex-pat friends don't seem particularly worried. Of course it's serious. I'm not trying to downplay that. But North Korean provocations happen all the time. They routinely swear to turn Seoul into a "lake of fire", so most Seoulites have learned to take what they say with a grain of salt. They threaten the US once and everyone loses their crap, even though it'd be a LOT harder to hit the west coast of the US than it would South Korea and Japan. North Korea wouldn't attack anyone in a serious manner unless they felt they were in imminent danger of collapse, because they're well aware any military action on their part will ensure the complete and utter destruction of their regime.

They're provocateurs. They do this in the hope countries back off sanctions or give aid. I can assure you we will be in this same thread in a year discussing their latest provocation. And the year after.

[Marvolo]

JJJ I'm with you about them not being able to hit us. I don't think they can hit us even if they can reach the west coast. I have faith in our $700 billion defense budget. I hadn't even thought about hawaii. That is kind of worrying, but I don't believe NKorea is stupid enough to launch at us so this is all speculation.

[Thundercrack85]

We are sort of in unchartered waters, and have been ever since they tested their first nuke, and successfully launched that long-range missile. Plus a new, untested leader(s).

I don't know if anything will come of it, but things are changing.

[JJJ's Ulcer]

They have tested long-range missiles, but I'm not sure what their targeting abilities are like. I bet if they launched them towards the US, those suckers would just fall into the ocean.

I do think North Korea is a greater existential threat for South Korea and Japan than Iran is for Israel and the Mideast. They're more unpredictable, reckless, isolated and, at least on the surface, have less of a sense of self-preservation.

[Kelly]

Their last major launch fell into the Sea of Japan, barely got out of their air space.....if it even got out of their air space.

The problem with hitting Japan or South Korea, there is fall out and the fall out could end up killing their own people, people in China, or Russia.....I'm thinking China and Russia wouldn't like that too much.

As far as Iran, Iran just doesn't have the capabilities right now....when they do, well that is another story.

[Marvolo]

Originally Posted by Kelly

Their last major launch fell into the Sea of Japan, barely got out of their air space.....if it even got out of their air space.

The problem with hitting Japan or South Korea, there is fall out and the fall out could end up killing their own people, people in China, or Russia.....I'm thinking China and Russia wouldn't like that too much.

As far as Iran, Iran just doesn't have the capabilities right now....when they do, well that is another story.

Russia and China would come down on them hard. Kim Jung Un and his band of fools would be up **** creek.

I'm not sure of the air streams in that part of the world but if NKorea was to nuke SKorea I would think the fallout would blow back up on NKorea.

[NickNitro]

Just figured this would be funny to put here in regards to recent discussion

[enterthemadness]

So, I learned NK has 1.1 Million troops. Not enough fuel for their 820 fighter jets. And outdated tanks.


But I guess they can take on South Korea.


I have deja vu now...


Point. NK is pissing me off with their damn threats. They need to be put in a time out. Yes, I take their threats seriously...in terms of sooner or later they will strike SK or Japan, and that ain't good.

[Thundercrack85]

They don't have 820 fighter jets. There are very few countries that can operate that many fighter jets. I doubt they have more than a third of that.

What they do have is a **** load of artillery aimed at Seoul. So, from the get go, they would decimate it. Which is very disturbing, if you're South Korean.

South Korea might actually win a protracted land war (if China stays out of it). But at a terrible cost.

Plus winning back North Korea (even though China probably wouldn't let that happen, and the North Koreans would use nuclear weapons, if South Koreans crossed the 38th parallel) isn't exactly a "prize". Think annexing an underdeveloped slum, full of starving, mentally and physically stunted people – a good chunk of whom would probably fight to the death or kill themselves, since they're so damned brainwashed (oddly reminiscent of Imperial Japan, in some ways).

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by Thundercrack85

They don't have 820 fighter jets. There are very few countries that can operate that many fighter jets. I doubt they have more than a third of that.

What they do have is a **** load of artillery aimed at Seoul. So, from the get go, they would decimate it. Which is very disturbing, if you're South Korean.

South Korea might actually win a protracted land war (if China stays out of it). But at a terrible cost.

Plus winning back North Korea (even though China probably wouldn't let that happen, and the North Koreans would use nuclear weapons, if South Koreans crossed the 38th parallel) isn't exactly a "prize". Think annexing an underdeveloped slum, full of starving, mentally and physically stunted people – a good chunk of whom would probably fight to the death or kill themselves, since they're so damned brainwashed (oddly reminiscent of Imperial Japan, in some ways).

I don't now tha they are as brainwashed as you think....I think they are afraid of their government, but that is far differet from being brainwashed.

I think the main difference of North Korea and other countries, except for maybe Libya at this point, is that the military is strongly behind the leader OR actually in charge. Which means, I would not see a defection from the military to keep from shooting civilians...they seem to be quite content at keeping the civilians scared and would not hesitat to shoot if the need came about.....whereas other countries, that is how the regime was taken down, the military turned on the leadership.

[JJJ's Ulcer]

North Korea can't defeat South Korea, a country whose GDP is a thousand fold the North Koreans and who has tens of thousands of US troops on its border. It can hurt South Korea, but anyone thinking it can unify SK under NK is dreaming.

[Donut]

[Kelly]

Originally Posted by JJJ's Ulcer

North Korea can't defeat South Korea, a country whose GDP is a thousand fold the North Koreans and who has tens of thousands of US troops on its border. It can hurt South Korea, but anyone thinking it can unify SK under NK is dreaming.

I'm not sure anyone is exactly saying that would/could happen.....I think what people are saying is, that hurt you speak of....could be MAJOR.

[Marvolo]

**** or get off the pot NKorea.

[Thundercrack85]

Originally Posted by Kelly

I don't now tha they are as brainwashed as you think....I think they are afraid of their government, but that is far differet from being brainwashed.

I think the main difference of North Korea and other countries, except for maybe Libya at this point, is that the military is strongly behind the leader OR actually in charge. Which means, I would not see a defection from the military to keep from shooting civilians...they seem to be quite content at keeping the civilians scared and would not hesitat to shoot if the need came about.....whereas other countries, that is how the regime was taken down, the military turned on the leadership.

Granted, I've only read a half dozen books on it, watched a few documentaries on it, and listened to a few lectures, but, you might be surprised. Read about the defectors. I.e. the ones who actually escaped North Korea. How long it took to rehabilitate them. And then realize that they were the sanest people in North Korea.

Being taught from birth that Kim Il-sung makes the tides come in and out, and a lifetime of propaganda, combined with malnutrition will make anyone brainwashed.

[Fading]

Agreed. I see Kelly's point. I don't think everyone there is brainwashed. I'm sure some are just afraid of the NK gov. However, just being held prisoner for half a year can lead to stockholm syndrome. Imagine spending your entire life, from birth, being told these things, surrounded by ppl who at least say they believe them as well. Even if you don't 100% believe everything, fear, hunger, and never ending propaganda have to have some affect on the mind. Not to mention most ppl would probably defend their fellow country men if their country was being attacked. Even if it's a ****** one, home is still home. People can grow to begrudge occupying forces as well, even if the changes lead to a better life (I mean some are turning to cannibalism in NK, it would have to get better) there will be those that would hold grudges and wish things would go back to the familiar. Others probably genuinely believe the gov's propaganda, and would see an attack on their leaders as if it were an attack on a something holy.I highly doubt trying to change how NK functions, their leadership, or unifying the Korea's would ever go anywhere near a smooth transition. I wouldn't be surprised if it lead to decades of civil unrest, terrorist attacks, and occasional uprisings.

[Thundercrack85]

Unification will not happen peacefully.

Plus it would bankrupt South Korea. Serious discussion of reunification is dead.

No one knows how North Korea will end. It might go out with a bang, it might simply finally collapse. But it won't be pretty.

Perhaps the most likely thing to cause a nuclear conflict of some kind (Iran and Israel being second).

[NickNitro]

North Korea says it has cut key military hotline

http://news.yahoo.com/north-korea-sa...104813809.html

[Fading]

Part of me is wondering if a lot of this is pride from NK leadership. The world has kinda laughed off their threats for years. So to get more attention they escalate in a more dangerous way by threatening nuking. Problem is now that they've went that far, if they back down now they will really look idiotic and impotent (they already do, but even more so).

So maybe it's a case of pride. They've went this far, and feel they can't back down. So the only way forward is more threats, and posturing on an ever increasing scale. I guess now it's just a question of when they get the wake up call. Even if the leadership thinks they're invincible, at some point they'll have to realize they're not capable of backing up their claims. Meanwhile it will be the citizens who suffer.

[craigdbfan]

US flies in nuclear capable stealth bombers in Korean peninsula

(Reuters) - The United States flew two Stealth practice bombing runs over South Korea on Thursday, an exercise bound to infuriate North Korea which already threatened both countries with nuclear attack.

[NickNitro]

I was literally just about to post that article craig....

Some scary stuff...I wonder how North Korea is going to respond to this

[JJJ's Ulcer]

My guess is more incendiary, ridiculously apocalyptic rhetoric followed by little or no action.

[Kelly]

You are probably right.....most of the Asian experts think that it is more talk than anything else....BUT, they do have the capability of hitting South Korea and Japan...soooooo.....

Most also think that we should really be pressuring China more to push for changes in North Korea....as in a unified Korea, which would really benefit China if they would just figure that out...