The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread

[BigThor]

^ point

Jesus Christ that was over 30 years ago, how long does it take people to move on.

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by xeno000

You live in the city where Superman was born.

Yeah I always knew he was created here, never knew Metropolis was based on Cleveland though.. pretty awesome. I'm basically famous now right?

[DieSmiling]

Domestically I see the floor at $350mm and the ceiling at $425.

Internationally is tougher. It wouldn't shock me if this did monster overseas numbers after the Avengers.

Prediction:
Domestic: $405mm
Overseas: $580mm
WW: $985mm

[Marvin]

I'm sure it's been said but this film faces the cbm second sequel curse. I doubt it will overcome it, however we may have an inversion here due the first sequel sucking.

Also Shane Black? I know he's got this bad ass reputation amongst people that loved 90's buddy action films and he himself talks a big game...somehow between that and avengers people aren't really taking to the idea that marvel just went and give their a list franchise to some cheap replacement.

Is Ironman really that big a draw without Avengers? Coming off of IM2 that is.

IM3 faces a seasoned star trek and Fast 6 as it's comp going into the later weeks.

Just some stuff to think about.

[kedrell]

Only whiny internet fanboys pretty much had a beef with IM2. The critics liked it and more importantly the GA loved it as well they should since it was awesome.

[cherokeesam]

Originally Posted by Marvin

I'm sure it's been said but this film faces the cbm second sequel curse. I doubt it will overcome it, however we may have an inversion here due the first sequel sucking.

Also Shane Black? I know he's got this bad ass reputation amongst people that loved 90's buddy action films and he himself talks a big game...somehow between that and avengers people aren't really taking to the idea that marvel just went and give their a list franchise to some cheap replacement.

Is Ironman really that big a draw without Avengers? Coming off of IM2 that is.

IM3 faces a seasoned star trek and Fast 6 as it's comp going into the later weeks.

Just some stuff to think about.

IM3 isn't facing a "second sequel curse" of any sort. IM3 has the biggest hype of any Iron Man movie to date; IM3 is coming hot on the heels of Marvel's piece de resistance, the biggest box office blockbuster in history that didn't have James Cameron attached to it; and IM3 has the biggest hype and buzz of any movie in 2013. The trailers show the biggest, most jaw-dropping action of any Iron Man movie ever. The villains are genuine certified blue-ribbon Hollywood eeee-vil, i.e. Guy Pearce and Ben Kingsley. Unlike, say, a couple of TV funnymen like, say, Topher Grace and Thomas Haden Church.

Just some stuff to think about.

[Marvin]

The second sequel curse doesn't refer to hype. However the fact is the second sequel curse embraces it, nurture's it, only to be betrayed by it.
ie see all the hype for the seconds sequels of this genre in the past.

As for Ben Kingsley and Guy Pearce...ya I just looked up their recent works. If Whedon didn't deliver in the way that it did(thank goodness favreau didn't get that one), and this film was simply coming off of that "much loved" IM2, than an odd looking villain paid by the villain from other failed tent pole endeavors probably wouldn't be as big a sell. If I'm not mistaken, the last most people saw of old Ben was that Persia movie and other failed films before that. Guy Pearce's last big appearances were that Lock out, that Prometheus, Lawless, all fall short in terms of what's needed here imo.

Unlike say TDKR(not a fan btw) which had a supporting cast of "new to the genre scene hot actors".

I don't think the "GA" loved IM2 as much as they loved "IM1" unlike say Spidey/Bat's/Xmen...etc But I could be mistaken.

I'm sure it will make some money, but I think the hype is misleading at the moment. And Marvel is loving it, those guys are obsessed with hype.

[T"Challa]

Originally Posted by Marvin

The second sequel curse doesn't refer to hype. However the fact is the second sequel curse embraces it, nurture's it, only to be betrayed by it.
ie see all the hype for the seconds sequels of this genre in the past.

As for Ben Kingsley and Guy Pearce...ya I just looked up their recent works. If Whedon didn't deliver in the way that it did(thank goodness favreau didn't get that one), and this film was simply coming off of that "much loved" IM2, than an odd looking villain paid by the villain from other failed tent pole endeavors probably wouldn't be as big a sell. If I'm not mistaken, the last most people saw of old Ben was that Persia movie and other failed films before that. Guy Pearce's last big appearances were that Lock out, that Prometheus, Lawless, all fall short in terms of what's needed here imo.

Unlike say TDKR(not a fan btw) which had a supporting cast of "new to the genre scene hot actors".

I don't think the "GA" loved IM2 as much as they loved "IM1" unlike say Spidey/Bat's/Xmen...etc But I could be mistaken.

I'm sure it will make some money, but I think the hype is misleading at the moment. And Marvel is loving it, those guys are obsessed with hype.

But Whedon delivered, thats what matters, and now the MCU is firmly in the minds of the GA. The trailers for IM3 have shattered YouTube records for views and likes. We don't even know the numbers from iTunes and Yahoo yet, they're probably huge as well. There was an article showing social media analysis that showed very very positive responses from people who viewed the trailers. The Superbowl spot, despite most of us thinking it wasnt anything special was still on top of the list of most memorable movie spots when results were compiled the next day

Anyway, all the hard figures available right now point to IM3 making some serious bank. The only thing that will derail it is negative critic reviews. And are you going to seriously question Ben Kingsleys actual acting talent? Yeah he's been in some bad movies lately but which actor hasn't? And don't get me started on Pearce, the guy is widely respected as one of the best character actors out there by anyone who knows film.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by Marvin

The second sequel curse doesn't refer to hype. However the fact is the second sequel curse embraces it, nurture's it, only to be betrayed by it.
ie see all the hype for the seconds sequels of this genre in the past.

As for Ben Kingsley and Guy Pearce...ya I just looked up their recent works. If Whedon didn't deliver in the way that it did(thank goodness favreau didn't get that one), and this film was simply coming off of that "much loved" IM2, than an odd looking villain paid by the villain from other failed tent pole endeavors probably wouldn't be as big a sell. If I'm not mistaken, the last most people saw of old Ben was that Persia movie and other failed films before that. Guy Pearce's last big appearances were that Lock out, that Prometheus, Lawless, all fall short in terms of what's needed here imo.

Unlike say TDKR(not a fan btw) which had a supporting cast of "new to the genre scene hot actors".

I don't think the "GA" loved IM2 as much as they loved "IM1" unlike say Spidey/Bat's/Xmen...etc But I could be mistaken.

I'm sure it will make some money, but I think the hype is misleading at the moment. And Marvel is loving it, those guys are obsessed with hype.

Well both got the same 'A' from CinemaScore and they're about the most reliable of any polling company for films.

Compare that to XMFC and Thor which both got a 'B+' and TIH & Captain America TFA both got an 'A-', & Green Lantern which got a 'B'. Both TDK and TDKR also got an 'A' and Avengers got an "A+".

[Mr.M]

I am going with about a 160-180 million OW. 420 Domestic. 9.5-1 billion WW.

[R_Hythlodeus]

Originally Posted by Marvin

If I'm not mistaken, the last most people saw of old Ben was that Persia movie and other failed films before that.

Or maybe his performaces in Hugo and Sexy Beast

[kedrell]

I think Hugo was the most recent and by all accounts I heard it was a very good movie...that is if that kind of movie is up your alley. It wasn't for me so I never saw it.

[DieSmiling]

I'm curious how fans respond to the marketing campaign (and potential tone) of IM3. They're obviously going a bit darker and more intense than the first two, more badass, less funny.

On some levels I think that will work extremely well, but I'm worried they might lose some of the charm that made IM so popular in the first place.

[ThePowerCosmic]

Originally Posted by R_Hythlodeus

Or maybe his performaces in Hugo and Sexy Beast

Originally Posted by kedrell

I think Hugo was the most recent and by all accounts I heard it was a very good movie...that is if that kind of movie is up your alley. It wasn't for me so I never saw it.

He said that Prince of Persia was the last movie that most people saw him in. I don't think a lot of people saw Hugo or Sexy Beast.

[kedrell]

He was also in Shutter Island recently. Never saw it, myself. That made nearly as much $/sold as much tickets WW as PoP did(which itself was a flop).

[Repulsor Blast]

iron man 2 was good, especially from a GA perspective. avengers is less than a year old and hugely popular. RDJ is one of the most bankable stars. IM3 is in 3d. China's involvement will boost its gross in asian markets. China has a massive population, so lots of people to potentially spend money on IM3.

If it reviews well, lets say between 80-95% on RT, then this movie will break 1 billion.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by Repulsor Blast

iron man 2 was good, especially from a GA perspective. avengers is less than a year old and hugely popular. RDJ is one of the most bankable stars. IM3 is in 3d. China's involvement will boost its gross in asian markets. China has a massive population, so lots of people to potentially spend money on IM3.

If it reviews well, lets say between 80-95% on RT, then this movie will break 1 billion.

^ I agree

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by kedrell

He was also in Shutter Island recently. Never saw it, myself. That made nearly as much $/sold as much tickets WW as PoP did(which itself was a flop).

I've seen Shutter Island like 4 times and it's never registered to me that it was Ben Kingsley hahaha.

[Juicy J]

In terms of superhero releases next year, this is how I see it going
1. Iron Man 3, just over a billion. Coming almost exactly a year after the biggest superhero movie of all time, its a no brainer that IM3 will dominate. As if that wasn't enough, every single trailer and TV spot has premiered to immense hype. Guaranteed first spot.
2. MoS. I genuinely think this movie will make between 750-800 mil, off of Nolan's name and positive word of mouth. I know there is somewhat of a stigma on superman movies, but from what I can tell I think this is the one to break that curse and reignite the superman hype.
3. Thor TDW. Once again, Avengers hype will no doubt carry this to big box office numbers, I'm thinking 700-800 mill also. I could see it surpassing MoS, but since I think Superman will probably beat it out I put him at number 2.
4. Wolverine - genuinely no clue. I say 600 if I had to guess, but I couldn't tell you.

[Mr. Dent]

Don't see Wolverine going much higher than $450m. But it may surprise us. It really is a weird type of x-factor.

[Juicy J]

Originally Posted by Mr. Dent

Don't see Wolverine going much higher than $450m. But it may surprise us. It really is a weird type of x-factor.

Yeah now that I think of it 600 is waaaaay to high, I take that back.
No previous X film has made it over half a billion dollars and I really don't see this one doing any different.

[kedrell]

With Wolverine it's in a curious place. It's an X-property IP but it has split off from the main line. XOW was awful but the most recent X-film was XMFC and that was more or less good and well received. But will The Wolverine get any credit from that? Very unusual situation there.

[Juicy J]

Exactly. Sort of no precedent for this situation.
I think it'll probably bring in some decent coin, but I don't see it surpassing any of the other three Marvel/DC properties this year. Unless we're including Kick Ass.

[Mysteryman]

Kick Ass 2 wont get my money,
I HATED the original.

[A Necessary Evil]

I predict..one hundred...billion...jillion...fafafillion...shibbi tydoo...dollars.