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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 03-21-2013, 10:04 AM   #26
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter View Post
Why? Nothing significant has really happened.
I know I just been thinking about how much more star powers Hemsworth has nowdays than he did for Thor 1.

Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the 3rd biggest film of all time, that may not translate to Chris' other roles but it will translate for Thor. Plus Thor:TDW will be coming directly off the heels of IM3 another guranteed billion dollar movie.

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Old 03-21-2013, 10:49 AM   #27
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Was there some kind of poll or something? How do we know Thor was the third most popular? Other than Iron Man and Hulk it's really hard to say what other characters stood out. Black Widow's role got more acclaim than Thor's last I checked.

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Old 03-21-2013, 03:04 PM   #28
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Critic's opinion don't have weight with B.O. numbers, that comes from the GA which clearly saw Thor as 3rd most popular.

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Old 03-21-2013, 03:29 PM   #29
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I don't doubt that, but how did you come to the conclusion that the GA saw Thor as 3rd most popular, BT?

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Old 03-21-2013, 04:25 PM   #30
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Just think about, whenever the Avengers are brought up Hulk, Iron Man, and Thor are by far the most discussed.

Alot of people don't even know Black Widow's name, even though her role was pretty darn big.

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Old 03-21-2013, 04:53 PM   #31
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

That's true. I guess that makes Cap 4th most popular.

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Old 03-21-2013, 08:32 PM   #32
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by BigThor View Post
I know I just been thinking about how much more star powers Hemsworth has nowdays than he did for Thor 1.

Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the 3rd biggest film of all time, that may not translate to Chris' other roles but it will translate for Thor. Plus Thor:TDW will be coming directly off the heels of IM3 another guranteed billion dollar movie.
Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.

I think $200mm is the mark for success domestically -- anything less than that would be very disappointing. I think anything over $225 is a very good success -- $250mm is probably the most realistic goal, I have a hard time seeing the movie go much bigger than that.

Internationally is tougher to gauge -- overseas popularity of 3D and continued international expansion keeps driving up the overseas takes of mega blockbusters. I'd guess $350mm, maybe $400.

Prediction:
Domestic: $210mm
International: $360mm
WW: $570mm

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Old 03-21-2013, 10:17 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by DieSmiling View Post
Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.

I think $200mm is the mark for success domestically -- anything less than that would be very disappointing. I think anything over $225 is a very good success -- $250mm is probably the most realistic goal, I have a hard time seeing the movie go much bigger than that.

Internationally is tougher to gauge -- overseas popularity of 3D and continued international expansion keeps driving up the overseas takes of mega blockbusters. I'd guess $350mm, maybe $400.

Prediction:
Domestic: $210mm
International: $360mm
WW: $570mm
Very well put. I think your predictions are very reasonable and possible. I don't think Thor 2 will get a huge boost from Avengers, but it will get some kind of boost.

Obviously, IM3 will do rather well. How much of a post-Avengers boost it gets will be interesting. It'll be more interesting to see how Thor 2 and Cap 2 perform. Will the uber-success of Avengers spill back into the solo adventure movies? I'm curious to see how it all plays out.

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Old 03-22-2013, 01:03 AM   #34
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by DieSmiling View Post
Iron Man 3 is a guaranteed billion dollar movie? You realize Iron Man 2 (the biggest solo Marvel Studios movie) didn't even crack $650 million WW right? IM3 definitely has a shot at $1B but to act like it's a done deal is crazy.

I think Thor: TDW obviously gets a boost from the Avengers, but I'm curious what the bump is. I'd say he was a bit of an afterthought in the Avengers (compared with Iron Man, Hulk, and Cap, that is) but it still prominently featured him (and his world) and definitely got people to check out the first Thor.
You seem to forget that Iron Man 2 came out before the box office juggernaut know as The Avengers. Iron Man had arguably the biggest role in the film and was the second most popular character behind Hulk.

Guaranteed billion was an exagerration but honestly this film is going to do any less than 850 million. Oh and Thor may have been an after thought as far as screentime, but he still left a big impression with the audiences (much bigger than Cap).

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Old 03-22-2013, 07:50 PM   #35
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by BigThor View Post
You seem to forget that Iron Man 2 came out before the box office juggernaut know as The Avengers. Iron Man had arguably the biggest role in the film and was the second most popular character behind Hulk.
I agree the Avengers will have a big impact on IM3's box office, but jumping from $650mm to $950 (my estimate) is a big impact.

Quote:
Guaranteed billion was an exagerration but honestly this film is going to do any less than 850 million. Oh and Thor may have been an after thought as far as screentime, but he still left a big impression with the audiences (much bigger than Cap).
I agree in terms of $850mm. I'd be very surprised if it didn't eclipse that, I just think $1b isn't guaranteed. I'm not sure Thor left as big an impression as you are but I agree that Iron Man and Hulk clearly made the biggest impressions (why aren't they making another Hulk movie again?) then the next slot would be debatable... Both Cap and Thor had a few good one-liners but weren't as awesome as they could have been...

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Old 03-22-2013, 09:28 PM   #36
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I agree the Avengers will have a big impact on IM3's box office, but jumping from $650mm to $950 (my estimate) is a big impact.
Honestly though, making 950 million is basically the same as reaching a billion.


Quote:
I agree in terms of $850mm. I'd be very surprised if it didn't eclipse that, I just think $1b isn't guaranteed. I'm not sure Thor left as big an impression as you are but I agree that Iron Man and Hulk clearly made the biggest impressions (why aren't they making another Hulk movie again?) then the next slot would be debatable... Both Cap and Thor had a few good one-liners but weren't as awesome as they could have been...
You see Cap had the most screentime in the film and Thor didn't show up until 45 mins into the movie. So for Thor to leave a bigger impression than him says alot and although he didn't say much Thor probably had the most action scenes in the film.

THAT'S what people remember from Thor, headbutting IM's helmet in, going toe to toe with Hulk, frying two leviathans at once, and using a car as a bowling ball.

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Old 04-08-2013, 01:55 PM   #37
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I'm thinking IM3 will be able to do that billion $ but it's not a shoe in. That'll be about the ceiling. ThorTDW I'll give it's ceiling at basically TASM numbers WW. $750M.

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Old 04-08-2013, 01:59 PM   #38
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Domestic: $210mm
International: $360mm
WW: $570mm
You see, these numbers(IM1 WW basically) I'd have given ThorTDW if it solely had been relying on the reception from Thor1. But because of TA I'd say:

DOM: $300M
INT: $450M
WW: $750M

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Old 04-08-2013, 05:38 PM   #39
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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Just think about, whenever the Avengers are brought up Hulk, Iron Man, and Thor are by far the most discussed.
Loki and Cap are a bit more discussed than Thor I'm afraid, thankfully Loki is in this film so that's a moot point.

Domestic: $280M
Oversees: $420M
World Wide: $700M

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Old 04-08-2013, 07:13 PM   #40
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

^ I actually agree with you on that for once, Cap is more talked about than Thor. Thor probably got the shortest stick out of all of them, but Hemsworth is nice eye candy (no homo) so he gets a pass on it I guess.

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Old 04-08-2013, 07:40 PM   #41
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Well Thor had the least amount of screen time among the big 4 (and even less than BW) but the reason for that is obvious. The film already had Loki and Selvig in prominent roles, if Thor had any more screen time it would have been "Thor and His Amazing Friends." LOL I love using that reference.

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Old 04-09-2013, 02:15 AM   #42
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I disgaree, Thor is definately more talked about than Cap and Loki is only talked about more because of the Hulk slam.

Loki's menacing qualities also took a hit from that, so I'd rather Thor be less popular and more respected.

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Old 04-09-2013, 01:36 PM   #43
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I disgaree, Thor is definately more talked about than Cap and Loki is only talked about more because of the Hulk slam.
It's fine if you disagree, and I'm not going to try to talk you out of thinking so, but from my own observations, Captain America is unanimously more popular than Thor. On every character poll I've ever seen, Cap was always ahead of Thor. And Loki was more popular than Thor before The Avengers was even released. Loki's been popular since the first Thor. The Avengers is just a extension of that previous popularity.

Now if you're talking about action moments only, Thor was way more talked about than Cap. Thor was talked about more than Iron Man when it comes to fights and action.

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Old 04-09-2013, 01:52 PM   #44
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

my gal friends talk about Cap's rear more than Thor's arms as well, haha

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Old 04-09-2013, 05:28 PM   #45
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Think of The Avengers as a boy band. Or a male stripper group. You have all types in there to cater for all female tastes. And your natural preferences are either clean cut Cap with not a hair out of place or the slightest sign of stubble or big, hairy, rough & beefcake Thor.

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Old 04-10-2013, 05:52 PM   #46
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter View Post
It's fine if you disagree, and I'm not going to try to talk you out of thinking so, but from my own observations, Captain America is unanimously more popular than Thor. On every character poll I've ever seen, Cap was always ahead of Thor. And Loki was more popular than Thor before The Avengers was even released. Loki's been popular since the first Thor. The Avengers is just a extension of that previous popularity.

Now if you're talking about action moments only, Thor was way more talked about than Cap. Thor was talked about more than Iron Man when it comes to fights and action.
Those are usually polls in which comicbook fans are the voters, from my experience Thor seems more popular with the GA.

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Old 04-10-2013, 06:00 PM   #47
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Those are usually polls in which comicbook fans are the voters, from my experience Thor seems more popular with the GA.
That's my impression too.
However, even among comic book fans, if we look at current sales for example, these things are changing.

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Old 04-10-2013, 07:05 PM   #48
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Those are usually polls in which comicbook fans are the voters, from my experience Thor seems more popular with the GA.
I've already had a similar argument with Mr. Dent and I don't really feel like having it again. I'm just telling you what I've observed. We're not going to agree on this though, so there's no point in trying to prove anything.
Also, remember this?
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Woah wtf, Thor is in 2nd place?

I can't believe it, because it really doesn't seem like he was much of a favorite from people's reactions to the film.
Although eventually he settled in at #3

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That's my impression too.
However, even among comic book fans, if we look at current sales for example, these things are changing.
Are you talking about comic sales? We're talking about the film characters here, specifically after The Avengers was released.

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Old 04-10-2013, 07:53 PM   #49
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by JB-the-Hunter View Post
It's fine if you disagree, and I'm not going to try to talk you out of thinking so, but from my own observations, Captain America is unanimously more popular than Thor. On every character poll I've ever seen, Cap was always ahead of Thor. And Loki was more popular than Thor before The Avengers was even released. Loki's been popular since the first Thor. The Avengers is just a extension of that previous popularity.

Now if you're talking about action moments only, Thor was way more talked about than Cap. Thor was talked about more than Iron Man when it comes to fights and action.
Some twitter analytics

Then you've got a poll done by Facebook:

Quote:
The social media platform said it polled a sample of the more than 5 million users who play its official "Avengers" game, to see which hero came out on top. Drumroll ...

In an unsurprising result, folks are still enamored with Iron Man, with Downey snatching 37% of the overall vote. Evans' Captain America came in second at 19%, with Hemsworth on his heels as Thor with 17%.

http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may...character-poll
CBM's poll

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:
Quote:


This one was done by some SEO group:

Quote:


Based on worldwide search volume for the past 12 months, The Hulk is the most popular Avenger. With a search volume index of 1.32 The Hulk had more interest than Iron Man (.94) and Thor (1.0) who battled it out for the second most popular Avenger. Captain America had an index of (.48) and Loki (We included Loki, so that he does not get mad at us) had an index of (.24). Captain America and Thor did have spikes in search volume as their individual Marvel Movies came out earlier in 2011. The brand name “Avengers” was the most popular over the past 30 days with an index of (6.3) and lead in news mentions and social media.

http://www.goebelgroup.com/who-is-th...pular-avenger/

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Old 04-10-2013, 08:38 PM   #50
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

That's some nice research you did there, but something you have to take into account is whether you're talking about the brand names or the characters themselves, because search results tell you more about the brand names, while character polls tell you more about the characters themselves. In my case, I'm talking about the characters of Captain America and Thor, and as shown by the Facebook and CBM poll, as well as the many random internet polls out there, Steve Rogers/Captain America was more popular in that regard:
http://www.rollingstone.com/movies/l.../thor-19691231
http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=382417
http://i46.tinypic.com/2a69ic1.png
http://www.quibblo.com/quiz/h68_6bZ/...gers-character

Thor as a brand is no doubt more popular, especially now that the trailer is almost here. But I was arguing BT's comment that Thor was the 3rd most popular character in the movie, which IMO isn't the case.

But anyway, this is the box office thread and I don't want to derail the topic here. Thor definitely has a chance to make the kind of money The Amazing Spider-Man made.

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