The "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) thread

[Mr. Dent]

What the ****. No one's even cast yet. I smell fome ass foolery going on. They're probably going to just shoot some random locations to keep the rights. This is ********.

[Saitou Hajime]

Yeah, but they if wanted to do that they could've done it in XMFC's shorter time frame (or even lesser than that). Why do it so early? That's why I think it reeks of a bluff.

[fangz]

i was thinking it was a bluff too, until they made that announcement about Millar supervising Fox's Marvel Comic Universe. It's hard to imagine him just going along with it like that.
and what could be going on in Trank's head too?
it doesn't add up to me. neither of them would be pretending to make this movie.

maybe this fact that shooting is so soon and we haven't heard anything about casting means that we'll get a whole cast of unknowns. that might be really cool and something about that seems like it would suit Trank also.

[kaijunexus]

Originally Posted by fangz

i was thinking it was a bluff too, until they made that announcement about Millar supervising Fox's Marvel Comic Universe. It's hard to imagine him just going along with it like that.
and what could be going on in Trank's head too?
it doesn't add up to me. neither of them would be pretending to make this movie.

maybe this fact that shooting is so soon and we haven't heard anything about casting means that we'll get a whole cast of unknowns. that might be really cool and something about that seems like it would suit Trank also.

I don't think Millar actually has any power (or influence for that matter) at Fox. It really seems like he was just hired as a figurehead just so Fox could say "ooh, hey! We've got a Joss Whedon, too!"

As far as Trank goes...who knows? He may be getting fed up with the nonsense...and if he is, let's hope he bails. Or Fox may be promising him this stuff in good faith, in which case he may just believe them and really think he's going to get his movie made.

This really does sound like a bluff, though. I've never heard of a production start date being set for a film that has no set cast whatsoever...let alone 2 months from that start date.

Again...either a bluff, or false news, or Fox went crazy and forgot how to make a movie.

[Mulholland-Jr]

This is going to be a fun board to be on.

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think it's time, people.

Sure, you can continue to hope and look for any faint glimmer of a possibility, heck, buy a Power-Ball ticket while you're at it, but I think Fox is going to make this movie.

It's time to shift our crazy, irrational hope that Marvel will get the rights to the crazy, irrational hope that Fox will do it right.

[spideyboy_1111]

oh i still have hope that marvel will get the rights back. I think the fan 4 reboot has to be massively done well (a major major task) for it not to be connected to the MCU to do well... so FOX can keep the rights all they want, but part of me hopes this movie bombs. I'd rather take a turd, and wait for 6 or 8 years and have marvel finally do them right with all there other heroes

[Zarex]

Originally Posted by kaijunexus

I don't think Millar actually has any power (or influence for that matter) at Fox. It really seems like he was just hired as a figurehead just so Fox could say "ooh, hey! We've got a Joss Whedon, too!"

Millar made himself look foolish by comparing his role with FOX to that of Whedon in the MCU. While Whedon supervises the MCU's Phase II films and writes a follow up to a $1.5 billion dollar movie, Millar struggles to actually schedule a meeting with Brian Singer. Who appears to have no interest in mashing together the X and FF universes.

Again...either a bluff, or false news, or Fox went crazy and forgot how to make a movie.

After the success of the Avengers, I think executives at FOX did go a bit crazy. Someone in authority (Emma Watts?) saw an FF/X-Men mash up as a way to invigorate the declining box office results of their superhero franchises, and thought Millar could be the guy to make it happen. With Singer back shepherding the X franchise, it appears as though both Millar and the FF are superfluous. Hopefully both will soon be leaving the company.

[Zarex]

Originally Posted by Willie Lumpkin

I think it's time, people.

Sure, you can continue to hope and look for any faint glimmer of a possibility, heck, buy a Power-Ball ticket while you're at it, but I think Fox is going to make this movie.

It's time to shift our crazy, irrational hope that Marvel will get the rights to the crazy, irrational hope that Fox will do it right.

You may be right, but I keep going back to the numbers and wondering - how the heck does FOX make any money off of this film? If the film release didn't involve character rights between major studios, it would likely never be put into production.

[metaphysician]

Could always be the good old sunk cost fallacy, and Fox would rather lose money keeping the rights than let them go. Which is my current suspicion, given the extremely short notice and absolutely zero casting news.

[kaijunexus]

Originally Posted by metaphysician

Could always be the good old sunk cost fallacy, and Fox would rather lose money keeping the rights than let them go. Which is my current suspicion, given the extremely short notice and absolutely zero casting news.

This is my fear.

Fox gains nothing by losing the rights. However, by retaining the rights (even by means of losing money on a film), they retain the ability to attempt to make money on this franchise in the future and can even use the rights as a bargaining chip with Marvel Studios.

However, my hope is sustained by Fox's fumbling of the Daredevil rights just last year. They could have easily threw a film together to retain all of those characters...and it seemed like they tried to, much like they're doing with Fantastic Four. But in the end, it fell apart.

And maybe (hopefully), this will too.

[JP]

Or, maybe they're trying to make money.. I donno.. NOW?


Guys, we've had a director on board for almost a year now, and the film is still 2 years away. There's simply nothing rushed about this production.

[Zarex]

Originally Posted by JP

Or, maybe they're trying to make money.. I donno.. NOW?


Guys, we've had a director on board for almost a year now, and the film is still 2 years away. There's simply nothing rushed about this production.

I agree, FOX has plenty of time to put a competent FF reboot into the theaters. It's the making money part that looks like to be a problem.

I did a "quick and dirty" financial review a few posts back that I won't go into again . But look at Trank's FF in comparison to Vaughn's XM:FC. Vaughn rebooted a much more successful series and received critical praise. But the film underperformed in comparison to the first trilogy, which likely is why FOX is now rebooting the reboot with DOFP.

Given the track record of the previous FF films, the lack of merchandise and the opening date just 56 days before Avengers 2, I can't see the reboot coming anywhere close to First Class box office numbers. And given the rumors of an onscreen negative zone and a CGI Thing, the budget is likely to exceed Vaughn's film by quite a bit.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I'm holding out hope that FOX would prefer to reach an agreement with Marvel than put hundreds of millions into this very risky project.

[marvelrobbins]

First Class was not a reboot.It was prequel that took so liberties.

Fox Is taking a total different approach than with original FF.

People are Ignoring bad blood between Fox and DIsney.Disney cancled the star wars 3-d rereleases to keep Fox from making money on them.Disney will make sure there Is no merchadise for any X-Men or FF films.

Rothman Is gone.It's a whole new ballgame at Fox.The fact that many of OT actors are back for X-Menays of future past Is proof of this.

What Is In It for Fox to make deal with Disney?

Beisdes with filming begining this soon It Is almost a gurante that trailer for FF will be
attached to DOFP.

[Zarex]

Originally Posted by marvelrobbins

First Class was not a reboot.It was prequel that took so liberties.

There were too many inconsistencies with the original trilogy to call it a straight prequel. What about calling it a prebootquel?

People are Ignoring bad blood between Fox and DIsney.Disney cancled the star wars 3-d rereleases to keep Fox from making money on them.Disney will make sure there Is no merchadise for any X-Men or FF films.

I am not ignoring it at all. But what better opportunity for FOX and Disney to work towards agreement on the Star Wars films (with FOX holding the rights to the first film in perpetuity) than by starting with a relatively minor IP like the FF?

What Is In It for Fox to make deal with Disney?

Because the FF rebooted into the MCU in the Avengers/Iron Man late spring slot in 2016, introduced in the Avengers 2 post credit scene, supported with store shelves filled with related merchandise and marketed by Disney would be far more lucrative (in my opinion) than the March 2015 release FOX is currently planning. There's plenty of room for FOX and Disney to make a satisfactory deal.

[marvelrobbins]

A reboot means other X-Men films didn't happen.That clearly wasn't the case.Especilly now with DOFP.First Class had more connection to X-Men/X2 than say Star Trek 2009 had to entire past trek franchise.

Disney would rather A new Hope never be seen again than let Fox get some money from Star Wars.As for other films don't expect any more releases of them till 2020 when Fox's distribution rights to empire,jedi,and prequels ends.

Your assuming DIsney would Immedetly jump on FF.GotG being exception DIsney only seems Intrested In Avengers related films.GotG may exsist simply to build up Thanos for Avengers sequel.

Disney doesn't make deals If they don't have to.They would rather just buy out companys.

Why would Fox take a small perchange of one film when they could do the franchise themselves.At least Fox has guts to put Zazis In First Class while Disney downplays nazis
In Captain America and makes Hydra villains.And Hydra was a post WWII organization In comics.

What happened with Star wars makes It less likely Fox would be willing to make a deal.COnsidering what they did to Mandarian In Iron Man 3 who knows what Disney would do to Doom.

[Mulholland-Jr]

Marvel seems to meddle too much in the product and slavishly caters to the shared universe for my tastes. If Fox is going to be as leniant as they've been with FC and currently are with DOFP then I'd rather they stay with Fox. Especially with the respectable crew they have on it.

[spideymouse]

Originally Posted by Mulholland '49

Marvel seems to meddle too much in the product and slavishly caters to the shared universe for my tastes. If Fox is going to be as leniant as they've been with FC and currently are with DOFP then I'd rather they stay with Fox. Especially with the respectable crew they have on it.

Interesting, I completely disagree with you on almost all points. Different tastes I guess. I do agree that Marvel works hard to keep continuity between its movies, but I find that appealing rather than distasteful.

That said, I don't disagree that incorporating the X-Men world into the MCU would be laborious and possibly too much for the current Marvel Studios team to handle. FF, on the other hand, would transition perfectly in the MCU.

[fixxxer]

Originally Posted by Mulholland '49

Marvel seems to meddle too much in the product and slavishly caters to the shared universe for my tastes. If Fox is going to be as leniant as they've been with FC and currently are with DOFP then I'd rather they stay with Fox. Especially with the respectable crew they have on it.

To me, that criticism would seem fair only when levied against Iron Man 2, wherein some of the 'tie-in' elements and characters seemed forced.

Otherwise, Marvel's rules of thumb seems to be more or less to give the individual filmmakers creative freedom over their film as long as nothing contradicts the continuity of the MCU. Which, in my eyes, is definitely a good thing.

[Dark Raven]

Iron Man 2 was a relatively early MCU offering, and a learning experience for them. I don't think they're going to repeat that same mistake now. IM2 was the weakest film of the series.

[fixxxer]

A question to all... consider the following hypothetical:

Fox and Marvel studio head honchos find themselves trapped in a room as part of a 'good faith' negotiation. Secret Wars style, if you will.

Each must write a dollar amount on a piece of paper. If Fox's amount is smaller than Marvel's, everyone returns home to the status quo.

If Marvel's is greater than or equal to Fox's, Fox receives the sum they asked for plus half the difference between the two figures. Marvel receives to rights to the Fantastic Four and all associated properties. For example, if Fox's sheet reads $5 and Marvel's reads $7, then Fox goes home with $6 and Marvel gets to reboot FF into the MCU.

Now, my hypothetical question is, assuming the FF rights revert to Marvel, what is your estimate of the two dollar figures?

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by Dark Raven

Iron Man 2 was a relatively early MCU offering, and a learning experience for them. I don't think they're going to repeat that same mistake now. IM2 was the weakest film of the series.

IYO. Me, I think TIH was weaker. . . but it was also partially made by another studio before being brought into Marvel Studios, IIRC.

Anyway, I'm sure Fox meddles just as much if not more. The difference is, Marvel's "meddling" is visible, because it has a clear *point*. When a Fox executive insists on something, it blends in with the general crappiness and isn't individually distinguishable.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by fixxxer

A question to all... consider the following hypothetical:

Fox and Marvel studio head honchos find themselves trapped in a room as part of a 'good faith' negotiation. Secret Wars style, if you will.

Each must write a dollar amount on a piece of paper. If Fox's amount is smaller than Marvel's, everyone returns home to the status quo.

If Marvel's is greater than or equal to Fox's, Fox receives the sum they asked for plus half the difference between the two figures. Marvel receives to rights to the Fantastic Four and all associated properties. For example, if Fox's sheet reads $5 and Marvel's reads $7, then Fox goes home with $6 and Marvel gets to reboot FF into the MCU.

Now, my hypothetical question is, assuming the FF rights revert to Marvel, what is your estimate of the two dollar figures?

Hmm. On Fox's side, I suspect they'd ask for at least $50 million. That's about what the first Fantastic Four made in profit, roughly, and I can't see them wanting to make a big budget movie without the hopes of at least that much profit. Its also fully a third of what they'd spend on a movie, which in this case would also be zero risk. If they were willing to value the license much less than this, however, they'd probably have already made a deal to give it back.

On Marvel's side, by contrast, I can't see them offering more than about $25 million. If they get the rights back, they'd still have to pay to make a movie, and a FF movie would at least cost 150 to make. Whatever they paid here would effectively be added to that budget, and anything more than 25, and it would need to be an Iron Man level hit to make a profit, first time out. I can't see Marvel wanting that kind of risk. At 25 million, however, they could still break even with even Captain America level success, and future usage of various supporting characters would justify some of the cost on its own.

As you can see, I'm not optimistic even in your hypothetical scenario. Fox wants money or assets equivalent to a successful movie, or else they figure they'll just go and make the movie and make at least as much there. Marvel just isn't going to pay that much, not for something that is hardly guaranteed to make money.

[Zarex]

Originally Posted by fixxxer

A question to all... consider the following hypothetical:

Fox and Marvel studio head honchos find themselves trapped in a room as part of a 'good faith' negotiation. Secret Wars style, if you will.

Each must write a dollar amount on a piece of paper. If Fox's amount is smaller than Marvel's, everyone returns home to the status quo.

If Marvel's is greater than or equal to Fox's, Fox receives the sum they asked for plus half the difference between the two figures. Marvel receives to rights to the Fantastic Four and all associated properties. For example, if Fox's sheet reads $5 and Marvel's reads $7, then Fox goes home with $6 and Marvel gets to reboot FF into the MCU.

Now, my hypothetical question is, assuming the FF rights revert to Marvel, what is your estimate of the two dollar figures?

My thought is that the higher ups at FOX would love a valid reason to avoid pumping $150+ million into a very risky reboot. But they've seen Disney cut checks over over $110 million and $287 million to Paramount and Sony respectively, so they'll be looking at a sizeable check for their film rights. I'll go with $75 million even.

On Marvel's side, it is very difficult to monetize the worth of the FF to the MCU. But I am certain Feige and Whedon can sell Iger on the value of Dr. Doom, Galactus and the First Family as they move into Phase III and beyond. Under the right hands and in the right environment, the FF can potentially be another tentpole franchise for Disney and sell a lot of Thing hands and stretchable Mr. Fantastics. There is also the psychic benefits to Marvel and their fanbase from bringing the FF back home - can you imagine the cheers when/if this is announced at Comicon or a D23 Expo? I'm thinking Disney may overbid, and put up $75,000,000.

And, we're done. Easy, Peasy Lemon Squeezy.

[KDM1986]

If the mouse really wants the fantastic four. They will make a offer fox wont turn down