Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Skrilla31]

I think the Thor 2 trailer already has about as many youtube views as MOS trailer #3.

Which tells me that MOS is not on par for a record breaking opening weekend or anything like that, but I'm confident that positive word of mouth will propel this thing beyond expectations.

[Tacit Ronin]

Originally Posted by Skrilla31

I think the Thor 2 trailer already has about as many youtube views as MOS trailer #3.

Which tells me that MOS is not on par for a record breaking opening weekend or anything like that, but I'm confident that positive word of mouth will propel this thing beyond expectations.

1. No it doesn't.

2. Even if it did, youtube views are essentially meaningless.

[Skrilla31]

Originally Posted by Excelsior.

1. No it doesn't.

Ah, you're right. I got confused. I was looking at the number for the first Thor movie.

[Kryptonian Titan]

Originally Posted by Excelsior.

1. No it doesn't.

2. Even if it did, youtube views are essentially meaningless.

This.

[Astrodust]

Originally Posted by Excelsior.

1. No it doesn't.

2. Even if it did, youtube views are essentially meaningless.

Unless of course the views sway in favor of Superman. Then we love it no?

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by Astrodust

Unless of course the views sway in favor of Superman. Then we love it no?

Bingo. Like the Twitter trending a few weeks ago. They only mattered when it was all over the place. But when the first TV spot got nary a mention, Twitter was irrelevant. indeed.

[JayJustROTFL]

I really hope this film does really well so a Justice League film can finally get the green light. The only thing that can really hurt this film now is poor reviews.

[747]

youtube views might not say nearly as much as some people think, but "essentially meaningless"? Sounds a bit exaggerated.

[GreenKToo]

saw the thor trailer. It was ok. didnt really get me excited tho, and yes, I love thor.

[sf2]

by youtube views, PSY is the king!

[N7 Joseph Shepard]

I'm not a Marvel fan, but I did like the THOR 2 trailer, I want to see that movie, but it pales in comparison to the Man Of Steel Trailer #2, forget #3, the second Man Of Steel trailer is far better than the THOR one and the 3rd trailer is even beyond that.

Anyone remember when Anthony Hopkins was signed on to play Jor-El? With back to back trailers (Superman & THOR) I'm honestly happy they went with Crowe over Hopkins, Crowe just has that voice I'd expect Jor-El to have.

[combocaz]

I want all the comic book movies to do well but i really need MOS to deliver otherwise we dont get any DC movies for awhile instead WB will stick to the same formula and make more batman movies.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

The last trailer looked great, but I think I let my excitement for it cloud my judgement. so...I slightly lowered my estimate, but not by much. this is still a reboot afterall.
95/105 OW.
305/315 dom
310/320 overseas.
615/635 total.

I agree 100% with your domestic assessment, though I think overseas might be better. I'd go more in the $400-420 M range. The foreign market is so gigantic now, that $400 M+ is almost expected for a movie like this, and might even be underselling it.

[GreenKToo]

I hope you're right and i'm very wrong....

[Joeyjojo72]

repost:

Oh and you can bet that the REAL budget is much higher than 175-200. 500 million WW would be a major disappointment from the studios perspective. Don't feel like breaking down the economics of it, but a simple google search will illustrate why MoS needs to make 700m plus to be considered a success. 600 million would be like breaking even and would have a negative effect on all future DC projects.

Kang, i agree with what you said about foreign markets. 300 million overseas would be a pretty lousy number for this movie, reboot or no.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by Joeyjojo72

repost:

Oh and you can bet that the REAL budget is much higher than 175-200. 500 million WW would be a major disappointment from the studios perspective. Don't feel like breaking down the economics of it, but a simple google search will illustrate why MoS needs to make 700m plus to be considered a success. 600 million would be like breaking even and would have a negative effect on all future DC projects.

Kang, i agree with what you said about foreign markets. 300 million overseas would be a pretty lousy number for this movie, reboot or no.

300 M foreign is like 150 M domestic now. If a movie does $300 M domestic, it should do at least 450 Foreign.

John Carter did over $200 M foreign. This should at least double that.

[Moridin]

At the same time, it often takes overseas markets a while to "catch on". So it might not do big numbers right off, but in a sequel if the first is good.

[Tacit Ronin]

Originally Posted by Astrodust

Unless of course the views sway in favor of Superman. Then we love it no?

If it swayed Superman's way I would still have the same opinion. So no.

[mclay18]

If David Goyer's comment about "you and 80 million other people need to see MOS in order to get a sequel" is to be believed... it at least needs to hit $634M worldwide.

With the positive buzz spreading, seems pretty doable.

[Mysteryman]

Originally Posted by GreenKToo

saw the thor trailer. It was ok. didnt really get me excited tho, and yes, I love thor.

.

i have not seen it yet, but to be fair, it is not a full trailer.
It is a teaser
There is more to come .

[JayJustROTFL]

If this film reaches 600-700m hopefully it will guarantee a mos sequel and a Justice League movie.

[Ita-KalEl]

Originally Posted by JayJustROTFL

If this film reaches 600-700m hopefully it will guarantee a mos sequel and a Justice League movie.

Of course it will guarantee them.

[The Shield]

Originally Posted by mclay18

If David Goyer's comment about "you and 80 million other people need to see MOS in order to get a sequel" is to be believed... it at least needs to hit $634M worldwide.

With the positive buzz spreading, seems pretty doable.

Unless I'm off, the average movie ticket is $10 or more, right. So that would make the need for a JL movie $800 mil. ww.

[Rhonimus]

Originally Posted by The Shield

Unless I'm off, the average movie ticket is $10 or more, right. So that would make the need for a JL movie $800 mil. ww.

i think $800 mil would likely be their take to regard it as a massive hit with the GA .. IMO

i think they'd be happy with anything north of $650 mil as a 1st out .. i'm goin' along with the $700 mil territory myself IF the critics give it positive reviews & word of mouth is good .. 300 & 400 for 700ww

personally i'd eat my own skivvies if it doesn't exceed 500ww .. i just can't see anything less considering all the hype surrounding this film .. but, for me, it comes down to the crits & word of mouth just prior & after release to figure how much legs this'll have ..

if the reviews come back positive & people talk, it might surprise us on the upside ww .. hoping for that .. would also be interesting to see how the WallMart sales will do come May 18th .. might give an indication of demand ?

[FilmNerdJamie]

Originally Posted by mclay18

If David Goyer's comment about "you and 80 million other people need to see MOS in order to get a sequel" is to be believed... it at least needs to hit $634M worldwide.

With the positive buzz spreading, seems pretty doable.

Reading too much into that. He clearly wasn't being specific about what figure it needs to hit.