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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-26-2013, 01:47 PM   #101
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
That's one reason I'm having trouble predicting if Captain America or Thor will be bigger. History says Thor will, but Thor has a massive sequel dropping two weeks after it comes out. Captain America kicks off a completely dead month.
Yeah, I think the main factor here is repeat viewings. A dead month does not guarantee that CA:TWS will garner repeat viewings, and just because THG:CF is dropping in T:TDW's third weekend doesn't mean that people will stop going to see T:TDW again and again. I'll point to Skyfall, whose theatrical run was greatly challenged by both the last Twilight movie and The Hobbit, and still made 300M domestic and over 1B worldwide. (I know, it's not a perfect comparison in terms of what markets were being catered to, but I still think it's a valid one.) In the end, my point is that these movies can, should, and will perform on their own merit, whatever their competition.

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Old 04-28-2013, 04:14 AM   #102
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I posed this question in the IM3 forum and might as well reiterate i here since it concerns this film as well.

What do you all think of the possibility of IM3 + ThorTDW = $2B this year WW? Maybe $1.2B for IM3 and $800M for Thor2? That'd be well over half of what all of phase 1 made($3.8B) in just 2 films. Then maybe between them Cap 2 and GOTG pull in another billion WW. TA2 then would only need to make about half as much as TA1 did just to have phase 2 equal phase 1 in WW $.

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Old 04-28-2013, 04:27 AM   #103
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

It would probably spark several parties thrown by Marvel Studios and Phase 3 would be ENORMOUS.

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Old 04-28-2013, 01:59 PM   #104
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I think it's fair to reevaluate what Thor could do internationally after the international opening of IM3. IM2 grossed $311 internationally, if IM3 holds up its numbers it will absolutely obliterate that.

It's definitely clear that the Avengers has had a positive impact on other movies in the MCU, and should help give Thor a large boost.

Too early for me to say with the trailer just hitting but I'm very interested in what the overseas box office for Thor looks like.

And Thor will absolutely not be the lowest grossing Phase 2 movie -- there should be no doubt in anyone's mind that will be Guardians of the Galaxy. That has extremely high bomb potential, IMO.

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Old 04-28-2013, 04:30 PM   #105
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I psed this question in the IM3 forum and might as well reiterate i here since it concerns this film as well.

What do you all think of the possibility of IM3 + ThorTDW = $2B this year WW? Maybe $1.2B for IM3 and $800M for Thor2? That'd be well over half of what all of phase 1 mad($3.8B)e in just 2 films. Then maybe between them Cap 2 and GOTG pull in another billion WW. TA2 then would only need to make about half as much as TA1 did just to have phase 2 equal phase 1 in WW $.
That's a very strong possibility, mate. Not only I think TDW will be great, but , as we've seen, the Avengers' factor is a reality.
I can't wait till November.

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Old 04-28-2013, 04:41 PM   #106
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I think it's fair to reevaluate what Thor could do internationally after the international opening of IM3. IM2 grossed $311 internationally, if IM3 holds up its numbers it will absolutely obliterate that.

It's definitely clear that the Avengers has had a positive impact on other movies in the MCU, and should help give Thor a large boost.

Too early for me to say with the trailer just hitting but I'm very interested in what the overseas box office for Thor looks like.

And Thor will absolutely not be the lowest grossing Phase 2 movie -- there should be no doubt in anyone's mind that will be Guardians of the Galaxy. That has extremely high bomb potential, IMO.
I think being tied to the MCU gives GotG a lot of insurance against bombing. IM2 was the highest grossing MCU phase 1 solo film. I expect all the phase 2 films except GotG to beat IM2's $624M WW gross. GotG I can see making CATFA - Thor1 numbers.

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Old 04-28-2013, 04:53 PM   #107
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I'd place Thor:TDW at around 750-800 million, CA:Winter Soldier at around 600-650 million, GOTG at around 500 million.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:09 PM   #108
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I'd place Thor:TDW at around 750-800 million, CA:Winter Soldier at around 600-650 million, GOTG at around 500 million.
I see nothing wrong with that guesstimate.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:11 PM   #109
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I expect Cap2 and Thor2 to do roughly the same DOM as their 1st movies did. OS is where Thor2 will pull ahead significantly.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:33 PM   #110
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I disagree. They'll gross more than $200m this time.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:39 PM   #111
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I disagree. They'll gross more than $200m this time.
I didn't mean that. I meant they'll have similar grosses DOM, just as they did in 2011. I think both will do around $300M DOM give or take 10-15M.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:43 PM   #112
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I can also say that since they were so close DOM in 2011, Thor winning easily could have been chalked up to better release date and less competition. Cap2 could actually do slightly better than Thor2 DOM. But Thor2 will still win WW because he's bigger OS.

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Old 04-28-2013, 05:49 PM   #113
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

Cap's the odd one out for me. I didn't go to see his first movie and I didn't see anything in TA that made me want to pay $25 to see his next movie. But all the other characters made me want to follow up on them.

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Old 04-28-2013, 06:01 PM   #114
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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I didn't mean that. I meant they'll have similar grosses DOM, just as they did in 2011. I think both will do around $300M DOM give or take 10-15M.
Yeah I'd say Thor:TDW and CA:WS bring in around 250-300 million DOM and I like you're avy it's hilarious.

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Old 04-28-2013, 06:36 PM   #115
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Cap's the odd one out for me. I didn't go to see his first movie and I didn't see anything in TA that made me want to pay $25 to see his next movie. But all the other characters made me want to follow up on them.
I kinda feel the same.

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Old 04-28-2013, 08:20 PM   #116
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

I still don't see why Captain America would gross more than $200 million at domestic box-office. Okay there's the Avengers boost, but he's not the only one from that movie that is releasing a solo movie. Iron Man/Thor will benefit from the Avengers the most. Then the April release date? Fast Five is the only movie that was released in April to cross the 200 million mark at the domestic box-office. Chris Evans is not even a big draw. Even if they have Scarlett Johansson/Samuel L. Jackson, its not guaranteed to be a big hit like Iron Man since they aren't the lead star of the film. I'm not hoping it to flop because just like Iron Man/Thor, I want Captain America to have a third film. But I just don't see it doing great.

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Old 04-28-2013, 10:02 PM   #117
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

If some films in March can get 300M and 400M I see no reason Cap2 with the whole month to itself(relatively) can't as well.

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Old 04-28-2013, 11:48 PM   #118
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

It's not about the star power with Marvel, I thought people would have learned that by now. It's about the brand.

Anyway, Cap is a lock for $200m+ this time. It was only $20m off from it the first movie, and because of the Avengers, it will be boosted. You can't say Thor will get more boost from the Avengers in America than Cap, that doesn't make sense, Cap was featured more in the film than Thor was and had arguably just as many memorable moments. All 4 of the main Avengers got a boost in popularity and awareness because of Avengers, it isn't exclusive to 1 or 2 of them.

Basically, the first movie was well received and the character should get a big boost from Avengers, I don't see why it doesn't go up $20m+ domestically to break $200m. It's not a stretch to say $250-$300m is possible if the movie is very well received.

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Old 04-29-2013, 02:52 AM   #119
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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It's not about the star power with Marvel, I thought people would have learned that by now. It's about the brand.
Color me surprised when Iron Man/Iron Man 2 hit the $300 million mark and Hulk/Thor/Captain America didn't even hit the $200 million mark.

Star power still counts and this will show in Thor 2 and next year with Captain America 2/Guardians of the Galaxy.

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Old 04-29-2013, 09:45 AM   #120
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RDJ had absolutely no star power going into the first Iron Man. Thor/Cap didn't break $200m because they weren't as acclaimed as Iron Man and Hulk just wasn't good.

And sure, when all of those movies make $500m+ I hope you FINALLY realize that brand and quality accounts for way more than star power with Marvel films.

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Old 04-29-2013, 01:45 PM   #121
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

With the Box office success of IM3 overseas right now and the box office records set for next weekend in the US, I see TTDW as a monster ready to happen..
With the upcoming trailers and advertising later this summer and fall we will see a buzz created rarely seen in the movie industry due to TTDW's epic scale..Overseas box office numbers will be enormous causing more media hype which will cause the US numbers to skyrocket... I think this move will shock everyone.....

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Old 04-29-2013, 02:24 PM   #122
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I still don't see why Captain America would gross more than $200 million at domestic box-office. Okay there's the Avengers boost, but he's not the only one from that movie that is releasing a solo movie. Iron Man/Thor will benefit from the Avengers the most. Then the April release date? Fast Five is the only movie that was released in April to cross the 200 million mark at the domestic box-office. Chris Evans is not even a big draw. Even if they have Scarlett Johansson/Samuel L. Jackson, its not guaranteed to be a big hit like Iron Man since they aren't the lead star of the film. I'm not hoping it to flop because just like Iron Man/Thor, I want Captain America to have a third film. But I just don't see it doing great.
Agreed. There's also the ''Thorki'' factor for TDW.

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Old 04-29-2013, 05:42 PM   #123
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Default Re: Early box-office predictions

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RDJ had absolutely no star power going into the first Iron Man.
I disagree with that. He's an Oscar winner and he's always had star power, whatever his private demons and movie choices.

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Old 04-29-2013, 07:33 PM   #124
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RDJ had absolutely no star power going into the first Iron Man.
LOL. I disagree.

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Old 04-30-2013, 01:22 AM   #125
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I disagree with that. He's an Oscar winner and he's always had star power, whatever his private demons and movie choices.
He's not an Oscar winner.

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LOL. I disagree.
Everyone thought RDJ was washed up when he was cast as Iron Man.

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