The Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Tony Stark]

BTW, meant to ask something about this, but at my theater there apparently was a problem with Fandango charging a normal ticket price for the 3D show. There were several people that this happened to. I'm assuming this was just my theater, because I haven't read anything about it in the news or the box office sites. But has anyone heard a similar story?

My wife and I were thinking that's a huge screw up by Fandango if it happened at multiple theaters.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Iceman

Wow, I would have been really impressed with $400m a few weeks ago! Hope the other Phase 2 films can see a good boost too.

They will. I think Thor 2 has the most to gain from a percentage increase standpoint.

[thalidomide]

Any updates yet?

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by thalidomide

Any updates yet?

Not yet. This could be a long night...

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

Well let's look at past MCU multipliers.

Iron Man- 3.21
The Incredible Hulk- 2.43
Iron Man 2- 2.43
Thor- 2.75
Captain America- 2.715
Avengers- 3.00

That puts the average multiplier right at 2.75, which would be $467.5 M off of a $170 M opening weekend. If it has Iron Man 2's low multiplier, then yes, it could potentially do only $413 M.


The range for this film based on the studios past successes is basically $400-500 M, and the whole range is game.

It might be useful to look at 2nd sequel multipliers as they're usually more front ended & most of those MCU films that did well are origin films. Avengers' multiplier of 3 was great for something opening that large so it would do well to get near that but I wouldn't expect it to.

Still a huge success story though. $300m would have been fine. $400m is amazing really for a film based on the Iron Man character and it could go a fair amount higher. Also now that the international audience have caught on I expect the future Avengers films BO to get even more crazy. Those guys love their big explosive sequels and once they're on board they stay on board even when the films start losing it totally (Pirates 3 & 4!).

[Saitou Hajime]

Rth is predicting a 62.8-64.4 m Saturday. Holy ****

[ElMariachi]

So is this movie going to beat Iron Man 2 in two weeks international, one domestic?

[Superhero 101]

Seems like it

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by Saitou Hajime

Rth is predicting a 62.8-64.4 m Saturday. Holy ****

I just read that. It shouldn't be a shock to me, but it is. I predicted $180M OW, so with a $50M Sunday I'll be damn near on the nose.

All those people going on about bad WOM should just shut it now. The numbers tell the tale. A film with bad WOM would have dropped like a stone on Saturday, rather than essentially rising from a $52M Friday (minus the Thursday previews).

[def28]

Bad WOM? Didn't this thing grab an A cinema score?

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by def28

Bad WOM? Didn't this thing grab an A cinema score?

Yes, it did get an A score. But some fans on this site have claimed that it was getting slammed on social media by people who hated "the twist," and that this would cause the box office to plummet on Saturday and Sunday. That obviously has not been the case.

[Mr. Dent]

Wow, that's an amazing hold from Friday if true. If anything, the WOM is extremely good. I think this is a case of controversy working in its favor. People are taking the twist and calling it and the movie bad, but really it's just controversial and is causing more people to want to see what all the hubbub is about (just my theory).

Also, is Rth an insider or something? I've never known why people take his reports as god's word.

[Heretic]

Originally Posted by xeno000

Yes, it did get an A score. But some fans on this site have claimed that it was getting slammed on social media by people who hated "the twist," and that this would cause the box office to plummet on Saturday and Sunday. That obviously has not been the case.

People tend to be very insulated.

I know someone...I won't get into the details...that posted an idea on a forum...the 5 or 6 people that commented loved the idea...so this guy got convinced that there was now a massive national buzz. TONS of money was spent...almost a year of work went into it...and he sold less than a hundred total. I think even with donations etc, he lost a hundred thousand dollars. All because a message board seemed to like an idea, and that somehow meant to him that it was a national consensus.

The public is probably loving this movie. Most people aren't really superhero fans, and prefer Tony Stark over Iron Man, so the fact that Tony is front and center without the suit for most of the film is probably a huge hit with them.

[spider-neil]

Originally Posted by Heretic

People tend to be very insulated.

I know someone...I won't get into the details...that posted an idea on a forum...the 5 or 6 people that commented loved the idea...so this guy got convinced that there was now a massive national buzz. TONS of money was spent...almost a year of work went into it...and he sold less than a hundred total. I think even with donations etc, he lost a hundred thousand dollars. All because a message board seemed to like an idea, and that somehow meant to him that it was a national consensus.

The public is probably loving this movie. Most people aren't really superhero fans, and prefer Tony Stark over Iron Man, so the fact that Tony is front and center without the suit for most of the film is probably a huge hit with them.

More Tony than IM wasn't a problem for me at all.

[Silver Surfer]

$64M Saturday, 170-175M weekend. 2nd Highest after Avengers.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/iron...-this-weekend/

[Liam_H]

As always Nikki can't do math.

[Silver Surfer]

Yup, with a 48m Sunday, it looks like 180+ for IM3.

[Liam_H]

She's good for a laugh but never reliable on the details.

[Iceman]

Great Saturday! And Nikki doesn't seem to amend her weekend prediction enough when one variable significantly changes (the Saturday expected figure). Looks kind of stupid up there in print. The lower end has now been amended to $171m. That would mean only a $38.7m Sunday (based on: "$68.3M Friday and a very good -6% hold for $64M Saturday."). Even the $175m would mean only $42.7m. $180m should be in play on the estimates so far.

[antonydelfini]

Whoa. Im so happy for the character and Shane Black and for Marvel studios.

[Iceman]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

They will. I think Thor 2 has the most to gain from a percentage increase standpoint.

Probably. I hope they can all make big gains overseas especially, now that Avengers has given them visibility.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by spider-neil

More Tony than IM wasn't a problem for me at all.

I think if it were any other superhero, it may not have paid dividend with the hero out of the suit most of the time. But Iron Man has RDJ, who can probably read a phonebook and still be entertaining. That's why the movie stayed engaged to me throughout its 2-hour running time.

Btw, I'm ecstatic over IM3's Saturday bump from Friday's figures. It is usually a telling sign whether the general audience love it or not, and whether its WOM is positive. It appears that the moviegoers do indeed love this movie, and I believe it will have good legs in upcoming weeks even against other movies.

[Saitou Hajime]

Originally Posted by Silver Surfer

$64M Saturday, 170-175M weekend. 2nd Highest after Avengers.

http://www.deadline.com/2013/05/iron...-this-weekend/

So the legend of the Rth continues to no surprise to anyone. And to think that some of us were ready to commit ritual mass suicide just yesterday because of some erroneous preliminary figures, if our lord and savior hadn't arrived with the REAL numbers

[Iceman]

Avengers made just over $69.5m on its opening Saturday. Can't believe this is so close to that figure.

[Silver Surfer]

What we all need to be asking ourselves is what's gonna happen when TA2 hits?

100M opening day?

250M Opening Weekend?

300M Opening Weekend?

1B Domestic?

1B Overseas?

2B World Wide?


And remember to overestimate, because we have tried underestimating Marvel and being "realistic", only to fall flat on our faces with overwhelming numbers.