Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[Mr. Dent]

This thread needs to be updated with a poll. And a title change or something.

[psylockolussus]

Originally Posted by psylockolussus

After watching the trailer
Domestic - I think this might perform like Oz, so $180 million to $240 million.
Worldwide - $500 million to $700 million

This is still my prediction after the opening weekend of Iron Man 3. But I think its safe to say that Thor 2 will at least get $600 million worldwide.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Never understood that. MoS to me was always the clear one with hurdles to overcome. Well, that and Wolverine.

MoS lol. Superman hasn't been in $2 Billion worth of blockbusters in the last two summers. Superman has absolutely no momentum going into this film, and has to rely purely on the merits of it's trailer, it's character's past glory, and the reviews for the movie.


Thor has one of the heroes and the villain from the biggest Super Hero movie of all time, and the actors who portrayed them still in tow. Just like Wolverine in the late 80s-early 90s, The Avengers have clawed their way out of second stringer status and are now major cultural icons. These are A-list heroes on a hot streak.

[Shazam]

What makes Thor interesting to me his interaction with Earth and earth issues! Fighting earth menaces like the Wrecker or the Wrecking Crew. The Absorbing Man....
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...P9t-ladBjOKNQ6

This movie seems to be too focused on Asgard which turns this film into a Lord of the Rings type of movie.....heavy on magic , elfen creatures swords and arrows rather than bombs and lasers......

I loved the battle of science and magic when Thor and Iron squared off....

Now it seems that magic will be the full focus.....

Some folks dont like that kind of movie....dod you think that taking Thor away from Earth will hurt the movie or won't make a difference?

[Shazam]

I do think that Ironman 3 should have done "something" with that "after credits" scene to set up Thor 2!

That sets up the anticipation....

[Donar]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

MoS lol. Superman hasn't been in $2 Billion worth of blockbusters in the last two summers. Superman has absolutely no momentum going into this film, and has to rely purely on the merits of it's trailer, it's character's past glory, and the reviews for the movie.


Thor has one of the heroes and the villain from the biggest Super Hero movie of all time, and the actors who portrayed them still in tow. Just like Wolverine in the late 80s-early 90s, The Avengers have clawed their way out of second stringer status and are now major cultural icons. These are A-list heroes on a hot streak.

Couldn't have said it better.

Originally Posted by Shazam

What makes Thor interesting to me his interaction with Earth and earth issues! Fighting earth menaces like the Wrecker or the Wrecking Crew. The Absorbing Man....
http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...P9t-ladBjOKNQ6

This movie seems to be too focused on Asgard which turns this film into a Lord of the Rings type of movie.....heavy on magic , elfen creatures swords and arrows rather than bombs and lasers......

I loved the battle of science and magic when Thor and Iron squared off....

Now it seems that magic will be the full focus.....

Some folks dont like that kind of movie....dod you think that taking Thor away from Earth will hurt the movie or won't make a difference?

I don't see how it will hurt the movie. The Nine Realms have always been one of the most intersting aspects of this character, not to mention the fact they always mixed magic and sci fi. That's hardly LOTR, imo.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by Shazam

I do think that Ironman 3 should have done "something" with that "after credits" scene to set up Thor 2!

That sets up the anticipation....

I don't think it needed it. The trailer alone sets up plenty of anticipation.

[Drizzle]

After the box office success of IM3, and since the Thor: TDW trailer was probably attached to every print, I'm now fairly confident this could open to over $100 million. That trailer generated a lot of excitement.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

MoS lol. Superman hasn't been in $2 Billion worth of blockbusters in the last two summers. Superman has absolutely no momentum going into this film, and has to rely purely on the merits of it's trailer, it's character's past glory, and the reviews for the movie.


Thor has one of the heroes and the villain from the biggest Super Hero movie of all time, and the actors who portrayed them still in tow. Just like Wolverine in the late 80s-early 90s, The Avengers have clawed their way out of second stringer status and are now major cultural icons. These are A-list heroes on a hot streak.

Bingo

I don't know how hard it is for people to understand this, it's spelled out as plain as day.

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by BigThor

Bingo

I don't know how hard it is for people to understand this, it's spelled out as plain as day.

Yeah I'm personally not interested in Superman, I'll see the movie for sure and I really hope it hooks me into the character, but I've never been really interested, he's got like every superpower ever lol. Then again I don't read comics so I'm sure there's a lot there I don't know that other people love haha.

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Although I'm definitely looking forward to TDW more then MoS, I certainly don't think it's a given TDW makes more coin. It will be close. Right now I have MoS making 800 m + at the boxoffice. TDW has the Avengers effect, MoS has the Nolan effect.

[mkilban2]

Originally Posted by SoNicRaDiATioN

Although I'm definitely looking forward to TDW more then MoS, I certainly don't think it's a given TDW makes more coin. It will be close. Right now I have MoS making 800 m + at the boxoffice. TDW has the Avengers effect, MoS has the Nolan effect.

I personally don't think there's a "Nolan effect" idk why though. I tend to see movies more for who is in them or what they're related to, directors or writers or producers have never really been a reason I've seen a movie. But hey, that's just me. That being said every Nolan movie I've seen I love.

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Originally Posted by mkilban2

I personally don't think there's a "Nolan effect" idk why though. I tend to see movies more for who is in them or what they're related to, directors or writers or producers have never really been a reason I've seen a movie. But hey, that's just me. That being said every Nolan movie I've seen I love.

I definitely think there is a Nolan effect. Not as big as there'd be if he co-wrote and directed the film, but no doubt it's there. WB certainly thinks it is with their marketing.

I really don't know what to make of MoS, I can see it making anything from 600 m to 900 m +...It looks great in the trailers, but I'm also aware of the characters past performance. Is he really that popular because everyone knows who he is? Is he too powerful and straight-laced to connect with the masses, or were his powers and character poorly conceived in his last few films to connect like he should have? I get the feeling it's the latter. Big Time. It just has that lightning in a bottle vibe about it where it feels like it could just explode. We'll see soon enough.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by SoNicRaDiATioN

Although I'm definitely looking forward to TDW more then MoS, I certainly don't think it's a given TDW makes more coin. It will be close. Right now I have MoS making 800 m + at the boxoffice. TDW has the Avengers effect, MoS has the Nolan effect.

Thor will not only have The Avengers effect, it will also have the Iron Man 3 effect which is set to make almost as much.

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Originally Posted by BigThor

Thor will not only have The Avengers effect, it will also have the Iron Man 3 effect which is set to make almost as much.

No doubt the momentum is great, but enough to top MoS....? I don't know, it's a close call imo.

[Donar]

Predicting numbers is fun, but ,honestly, I'm not worried at all about TDW. I'm confident it will do great.

[BigThor]

Originally Posted by SoNicRaDiATioN

No doubt the momentum is great, but enough to top MoS....? I don't know, it's a close call imo.

I'm just saying it has more going for it, of course we don't know which film will actually earn more.

[ctsketch]

Originally Posted by BigThor

I'm just saying it has more going for it, of course we don't know which film will actually earn more.

honestly I don't see this beating MoS.... IM3 might beat MoS but I don't think Thor has enough star power right now to topple supes

[xeno000]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

MoS lol. Superman hasn't been in $2 Billion worth of blockbusters in the last two summers. Superman has absolutely no momentum going into this film, and has to rely purely on the merits of it's trailer, it's character's past glory, and the reviews for the movie.


Thor has one of the heroes and the villain from the biggest Super Hero movie of all time, and the actors who portrayed them still in tow. Just like Wolverine in the late 80s-early 90s, The Avengers have clawed their way out of second stringer status and are now major cultural icons. These are A-list heroes on a hot streak.

The part I bolded is the most important consideration when trying to judge the solo films' box office prospects. After the success of The Avengers, every one of the heroes in that franchise has to be looked at as a first tier character with blockbuster box office potential. With Iron Man 3 clearing three quarters of a billion dollars in ticket sales after two weeks of release, it's obvious that Marvel Studios' heroes have vaulted into the upper echelons.


Just as Iron Man has now supplanted Spider-Man and Superman in terms of film popularity, Thor and Captain America are moving up in the ranks as well. Disney's marketing machinery will soon begin to kick into high gear for TDW. Once that cranks up, the buzz for this film is going to skyrocket. The film has a good shot at doing more than double Thor's OS numbers. Domestically, it could easily do >$300M if it blasts out of the gate the way IM3 just did.

[restlessdreams]

Look for Thor to make about 200 million here in the USA and to make about 300 million in the foreign markets. It will have a worldwide gross of around 500 (give or take). The first Thor wasn't a huge huge hit (449 million) but thanks to the Avengers and the fact that Thor and Loki are becoming very popular it should give the movie a boost. But it won't beat IM3 and MAYBE it could beat MOS but that's a big maybe.

[Mjölnir]

Originally Posted by ctsketch

honestly I don't see this beating MoS.... IM3 might beat MoS but I don't think Thor has enough star power right now to topple supes

That IM3 "might" beat MoS seems like a pretty huge understatement of it's chances.

Originally Posted by restlessdreams

Look for Thor to make about 200 million here in the USA and to make about 300 million in the foreign markets. It will have a worldwide gross of around 500 (give or take). The first Thor wasn't a huge huge hit (449 million) but thanks to the Avengers and the fact that Thor and Loki are becoming very popular it should give the movie a boost. But it won't beat IM3 and MAYBE it could beat MOS but that's a big maybe.

If it only increases 11% then I wouldn't say that there's any Avengers effect going on at all. IM3 is almost on the pace of doubling the gross of it's predecessor, and IM2 made more than Thor.

[metaphysician]

Originally Posted by restlessdreams

Look for Thor to make about 200 million here in the USA and to make about 300 million in the foreign markets. It will have a worldwide gross of around 500 (give or take). The first Thor wasn't a huge huge hit (449 million) but thanks to the Avengers and the fact that Thor and Loki are becoming very popular it should give the movie a boost. But it won't beat IM3 and MAYBE it could beat MOS but that's a big maybe.

Inflation and market growth *alone* would lead to a bigger increase than that.

[Namor!]

Domestic: 350 million
WW: 850 million

[chiefchirpa]

Originally Posted by ctsketch

IM3 might beat MoS

Still living in the 80's are you?

[ctsketch]

Originally Posted by Mjölnir

That IM3 "might" beat MoS seems like a pretty huge understatement of it's chances.

I'm a marvel fan but Superman still has star power. and fanboy power. However with IM3's current BO numbers it's looking harder and harder to beat.