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View Poll Results: How much will The Wolverine make world wide?
$100M 3 3.66%
$200M 5 6.10%
$300M 13 15.85%
$400M 38 46.34%
$500M 14 17.07%
$600M 6 7.32%
$700M 2 2.44%
$800M 0 0%
$900M 0 0%
$1 Billion 1 1.22%
Voters: 82. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-04-2013, 07:38 PM   #801
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

I think it has a chance of hitting 400 million if it opens in china

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Old 08-04-2013, 10:53 PM   #802
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by DarthSkywalker View Post
Not exactly sure why that is something to proud of but ok. It is also actually wrong, as Marvel are on film 8 without a reboot.

Anyways, plenty of franchise have pulled that off very recently, or at least something similar. Harry Potter, James Bond, Marvel, Sherk (5 movies), and Twilight (5 movies). The Lord of the Rings is going to pull this off soon.

The Fast series is as old as the X-Men franchise. It has never been hotter.

There are many factors, but it isn't simply fatigue. It doesn't really make sense in this market. If you bring the good films with a product that is marketable, people will come.
MCU is different from X-Men. I don't think general audience see all the Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, etc.... as 1 series. MCU has Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, some 1-shot like Incredible Hulk and The Avengers films. The GA probably haven't even heard of the term "Marvel Cinematic Universe" unless they look it up online.

And The Fast series got a lot of momentum because the OT cast from the 1st movie came back and they added a couple of well-known actors such as The Rock and soon Jason Statham. Thats why I've beensaying that the X-Men should follow the same direction, release more films with the OT and at the same time, hire well-known actors for the new roles.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:01 PM   #803
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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I think one major problem is that they have done little to nothing to keep X-Men relevant. Why are there so few X-Men films? Plenty of ways to use the characters, spin them off, make small budget films. There should be an X-Men movie every year, and a good one.

Marvel tested the waters with Iron Man and TIH, and pretty much all of Phase 1. Now that we are on Phase 2, we are entering an era where there are going to be two films in the series every single year. That is what X-Men should have been doing in the first place. Wolverine wouldn't feel overused if there were 10 X-Men films. Well unless he was the start of all of them.
That model just wouldn't work for the X-Men.

All the properties that FOX have from X-Men will still be seen as part of the "X-Men universe" whether its a Cyclops spin-off, Storm spin-off, X-Force, New Mutants, Deadpool. And the ones that doesn't really come across as a branch of the X-Men like Starjammers, Excalibur would be hard to sell.

With MCU is different, Iron Man has its own world, Hulk has its own world, Thor has its own world, GOTG has its own world, it just feels like they all belong together from the start because they appeared in The Avengers and they had cameos in the other movies. But people can easily them as their own thing. Unlike with the X-Men. Its always gonna be, the main X-Men series and the spin-offs.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:01 PM   #804
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
MCU is different from X-Men. I don't think general audience see all the Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, etc.... as 1 series. MCU has Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, some 1-shot like Incredible Hulk and The Avengers films. The GA probably haven't even heard of the term "Marvel Cinematic Universe" unless they look it up online.
But they heard the term Avengers and thats really all that matters. They associate all the characters with that team now. Everybody and their grandparents saw the Avengers. Not the case with Cap, Thor, Hulk etc

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:10 PM   #805
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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This may be insignificant, but both First Class and Wolverine had a foreign setting and feel to their movies. From Poland, Switzerland, England, Soviet Union/Russia and Argentina in First Class and now Japan and Canada in The Wolverine. That may be a factor as to why it appeals to people worldwide as well.
Hmm not really. Its price inflation and for The Wolverine, bloated price for 3D tickets.

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But they heard the term Avengers and thats really all that matters. They associate all the characters with that team now. Everybody and their grandparents saw the Avengers. Not the case with Cap, Thor, Hulk etc
The GA will think of Avengers as a "Team-up movie" or a "Team-up series" when The Avengers 2 hits the theaters. Superheroes that have their own movie/series working together in 1 film.

Is there suddenly going to be a "DC cinematic universe" series when the Superman/Batman film hits in 2015 or is there going to be a "FOX comic-book cinematic universe" if ever Fantastic Four and X-Men team-up in a movie?

Marvel Cinematic Universe is more like a brand name, it can be seen as a series but in my opinion, its just a bunch of series grouped in 1 category named MCU.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:23 PM   #806
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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The GA will think of Avengers as a "Team-up movie" or a "Team-up series" when The Avengers 2 hits the theaters. Superheroes that have their own movie/series working together in 1 film.
Doesn't matter, that "team up" is the main show here. Hell, even before the Avengers was out characters were crossing into others and building into something. They see these characters as part of The Avengers franchise. Thats the movie everyone saw and connects with when they see the characters now.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:30 PM   #807
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Yeah it worked for them but for the X-Men, it wouldn't work. Even if FOX rebooted the series.

The only way for FOX to rival MCU, is if they have Spider-Man and Daredevil. In addition of X-Men and Fantastic Four, they could release sequels to those 4 properties every 2 to 3 years and once in 3 to 5 years, make a big cross-over film.

But with just the X-Men universe, its just impossible. People would be worn out seeing a X-Men-related film every year.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:33 PM   #808
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

All that depends on DOFP. They need that film to score big. No reason to think if that film is big it won't peak interest in other X-Films but we shall see.

No way of knowing yet.

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Old 08-04-2013, 11:44 PM   #809
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Still, just because 1 film has a potential for a big success next year. It doesn't mean FOX should bombard the GA will lots of spin-offs or X-Men related movie and it would still lead to over-saturation and audience fatigue and even if every film that FOX released starting from FC are all well received by the audience and critics. And with that I feel like FOX wouldn't maintain all the goodwill and momentum that they might get from DOFP's success. I don't really believe with the DarthSkywalker said about "there are so few X-Men films and that there should be an X-Men movie every year".

7 films in 14 years from 2000 to 2014 - that is a lot from 1 franchise.

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Old 08-05-2013, 01:57 AM   #810
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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And it hasn't opened in Japan yet.

I read that the reason the movie isn't opening until September is because this week is the anniversary of the Nagasaki bombing, so releasing it now seemed inappropriate.

Also, I got straight A's in history and should have realized that before I read it in Variety.
That would only account for the movie not opening too close to the anniversary. September is pretty far off and it is actually typical of Japanese release schedules. American movies open really late. My friends from Tokyo were so psyched that they were visiting California last year in May because they got to see the Avengers before anyone else in Japan. It's serious bragging rights to do anything "cool" before everyone else haha.

The Wolverine is going to do gangbusters in Japan. Megastars like Hugh Jackman and Brad Pitt are huge there.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:49 AM   #811
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

The only X-Men movies that didn't open in Japan so late are X2/First Class.

X1- October 7
X2- May 3
X3- September 9
Origins- September 11
First Class- June 11

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:50 AM   #812
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
MCU is different from X-Men. I don't think general audience see all the Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, etc.... as 1 series. MCU has Iron Man films, Thor films, Captain America films, some 1-shot like Incredible Hulk and The Avengers films. The GA probably haven't even heard of the term "Marvel Cinematic Universe" unless they look it up online.

And The Fast series got a lot of momentum because the OT cast from the 1st movie came back and they added a couple of well-known actors such as The Rock and soon Jason Statham. Thats why I've beensaying that the X-Men should follow the same direction, release more films with the OT and at the same time, hire well-known actors for the new roles.
The only difference is Marvel's plan works. And yes, the general audience sees the connection. Why wouldn't they? It is the same actors and characters.

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
That model just wouldn't work for the X-Men.

All the properties that FOX have from X-Men will still be seen as part of the "X-Men universe" whether its a Cyclops spin-off, Storm spin-off, X-Force, New Mutants, Deadpool. And the ones that doesn't really come across as a branch of the X-Men like Starjammers, Excalibur would be hard to sell.

With MCU is different, Iron Man has its own world, Hulk has its own world, Thor has its own world, GOTG has its own world, it just feels like they all belong together from the start because they appeared in The Avengers and they had cameos in the other movies. But people can easily them as their own thing. Unlike with the X-Men. Its always gonna be, the main X-Men series and the spin-offs.
Which is why you should intergrate new X-Men, instead of focusing on Wolverine all the time. Making other films which are "spin-offs" would be simpler that way, instead of starting cold. But they don't.

Not every X-Men movie needs to be a huge production. But it would be simple to make a main X-Men film every 2 years, and switch between a solo character film and a smaller team film in the off years.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:55 AM   #813
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Still, just because 1 film has a potential for a big success next year. It doesn't mean FOX should bombard the GA will lots of spin-offs or X-Men related movie and it would still lead to over-saturation and audience fatigue and even if every film that FOX released starting from FC are all well received by the audience and critics. And with that I feel like FOX wouldn't maintain all the goodwill and momentum that they might get from DOFP's success. I don't really believe with the DarthSkywalker said about "there are so few X-Men films and that there should be an X-Men movie every year".

7 films in 14 years from 2000 to 2014 - that is a lot from 1 franchise.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:55 AM   #814
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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The only difference is Marvel's plan works. And yes, the general audience sees the connection. Why wouldn't they? It is the same actors and characters.
They see the connection but I doubt they see it as part of 1 franchise/1 series more like 4 series coming together in 1 film. And that was part of the appeal of the Avengers.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:57 AM   #815
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Which is why you should intergrate new X-Men, instead of focusing on Wolverine all the time. Making other films which are "spin-offs" would be simpler that way, instead of starting cold. But they don't.

Not every X-Men movie needs to be a huge production. But it would be simple to make a main X-Men film every 2 years, and switch between a solo character film and a smaller team film in the off years.
Ugh, no thank you.

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Old 08-05-2013, 03:00 AM   #816
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

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Which is why you should intergrate new X-Men, instead of focusing on Wolverine all the time. Making other films which are "spin-offs" would be simpler that way, instead of starting cold. But they don't.

Not every X-Men movie needs to be a huge production. But it would be simple to make a main X-Men film every 2 years, and switch between a solo character film and a smaller team film in the off years.
New X-Men teams like X-Force and New Mutants would look like "X-Men light" to people just with different characters. And I don't think the GA would be interested enough to see those films, they would see them as knock-off version of X-Men and with the studio trying to cash-in from X-Men's popularity and brand, while they could just continue to release more films with the main series.

And smaller budget for films doesn't automatically guarantee $$$. The Wolverine is doing okay, but it still had to rely from the popularity of Wolverine and Hugh Jackman. If we got a small-scaled film with a budget of $120 million featuring a team of mutants that we haven't seen before this year instead of The Wolverine, things could have been worse.

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Old 08-05-2013, 03:23 AM   #817
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Old 08-05-2013, 03:34 AM   #818
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They see the connection but I doubt they see it as part of 1 franchise/1 series more like 4 series coming together in 1 film. And that was part of the appeal of the Avengers.
It is all that and more. That is the brilliance. You build to the Avengers, and the carrot is the Avengers. You use the first phase to build to the Avengers, to maximize the anticipation, while those movies are watched in anticipation of the Avengers. It is a smart strategy.

Quote:
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New X-Men teams like X-Force and New Mutants would look like "X-Men light" to people just with different characters. And I don't think the GA would be interested enough to see those films, they would see them as knock-off version of X-Men and with the studio trying to cash-in from X-Men's popularity and brand, while they could just continue to release more films with the main series.

And smaller budget for films doesn't automatically guarantee $$$. The Wolverine is doing okay, but it still had to rely from the popularity of Wolverine and Hugh Jackman. If we got a small-scaled film with a budget of $120 million featuring a team of mutants that we haven't seen before this year instead of The Wolverine, things could have been worse.
Which is why you build the characters in the main series. Also, the off year films could actually be solid pieces of work. True attempts at doing something unique.

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Old 08-05-2013, 03:44 AM   #819
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I think it has a chance of hitting 400 million if it opens in china
If it opens in China I think its a lock for 400.

Its above 250 now and it will gross another 50 million in America so that 300 million and it looks like it has another 100 million foreign without china.

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Old 08-05-2013, 09:09 AM   #820
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That model just wouldn't work for the X-Men.

All the properties that FOX have from X-Men will still be seen as part of the "X-Men universe" whether its a Cyclops spin-off, Storm spin-off, X-Force, New Mutants, Deadpool. And the ones that doesn't really come across as a branch of the X-Men like Starjammers, Excalibur would be hard to sell.

With MCU is different, Iron Man has its own world, Hulk has its own world, Thor has its own world, GOTG has its own world, it just feels like they all belong together from the start because they appeared in The Avengers and they had cameos in the other movies. But people can easily them as their own thing. Unlike with the X-Men. Its always gonna be, the main X-Men series and the spin-offs.
I agree to an extent with what you said here. As of now,the X-characters they have in the movies wouldn't really work in a spin off movies because ...mostly the hcaracter themselves. All except Wolverine, of course. With Wolverine, as long as you stay true to the hcaracter, you can put him in any type of story and he wouldn't feel out of place.

With Wolverine, you can put him in a Gangster type of stories, revenge stories...hell, put him in a zombie movie and he would fit right in.Can't do that with Storm, or Cyclops.

That said, in the comics version, there ARE tons of X-characters that could work in a spin off movies.Characters like Gambit, Cable, Fantomex, X-23,Namor just to name a few.

Just like the Thor, iron man from the MCU, these characters has it's own world other than the X world.They all have origins stories that didn't start with being in the X-team.Fox just need to bring these characters to the big screen and they can help expand the X-universe.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:01 PM   #821
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New X-Men teams like X-Force and New Mutants would look like "X-Men light" to people just with different characters. And I don't think the GA would be interested enough to see those films, they would see them as knock-off version of X-Men and with the studio trying to cash-in from X-Men's popularity and brand, while they could just continue to release more films with the main series.

And smaller budget for films doesn't automatically guarantee $$$. The Wolverine is doing okay, but it still had to rely from the popularity of Wolverine and Hugh Jackman. If we got a small-scaled film with a budget of $120 million featuring a team of mutants that we haven't seen before this year instead of The Wolverine, things could have been worse.
On top of all that, the X-Men movies with the heavy hitters are struggling enough as it is. Some sort of X-Force knock off with no recognizable characters isn't going to cut it.

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Old 08-05-2013, 02:06 PM   #822
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If it opens in China I think its a lock for 400.

Its above 250 now and it will gross another 50 million in America so that 300 million and it looks like it has another 100 million foreign without china.
Not a bad return, lets hope it gets a Chine release

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Old 08-05-2013, 05:23 PM   #823
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Weekend actuals are in: As predicted The Wolverine took 2nd place EASILY with $21 million only a 59% drop compared to Origins 69% drop .

This makes me happy.

http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

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Old 08-05-2013, 09:28 PM   #824
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This is what you do when you can't argue with my accurate points.

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It is all that and more. That is the brilliance. You build to the Avengers, and the carrot is the Avengers. You use the first phase to build to the Avengers, to maximize the anticipation, while those movies are watched in anticipation of the Avengers. It is a smart strategy.
Yeah but it won't work for the X-Men. Iron Man, Hulk, Captain America and Thor weren't seen as "the Avengers characters" first, they were seen as their own thing and in their own series/world. Its been like that in the comics, cartoons, videogames and now movies.

You release solo films for Wolverine, Cyclops, Jean and Storm first before the first X-Men team film and the GA would just complain why its taking them a long time to release a X-Men film with those four and instead of having an effort to release solo flicks for Cyke, Storm and Jean Grey, they could just introduce them together in 1 movie.

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Last edited by psylockolussus; 08-05-2013 at 09:33 PM.
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Old 08-05-2013, 09:49 PM   #825
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Default Re: The 'The Wolverine' Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Nell2ThaIzzay View Post
On top of all that, the X-Men movies with the heavy hitters are struggling enough as it is. Some sort of X-Force knock off with no recognizable characters isn't going to cut it.
Yes. And X-Men is not even as huge as the other movie franchises like Spider-Man and Lord of the Rings.

So for now, its time to return with the original cast and release a couple of films with them before starting to release another spin-off. The interest of the GA and the hype are with them so FOX should take advantage of that. If Fast/Furious got a lot of momentum for bringing back the cast of the first film. It would also work for the X-Men especially its a superhero/scifi film and if they made characters like Storm, Iceman, Rogue, Colossus really strong in the movies (characters that aren't that great in the OT), it would really help.

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