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Old 10-25-2013, 10:51 PM   #901
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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Originally Posted by Thundercrack85 View Post
Well, Todd Akin would have won if he would have just stopped talking about rape.

So, you can still be crazy and win, just not too crazy.
You're exactly right. Todd Akin was guaranteed to win until he talked about rape. Claire McCaskill was extremely unpopular in her state, was too close to Obama, and her attitude did her no favors. So she played dirty and manipulated GOP primary voters into choosing Akin.

Well played I might add

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Old 10-26-2013, 12:11 AM   #902
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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You're exactly right. Todd Akin was guaranteed to win until he talked about rape.
In all reality I think he might have lost even without the rape comment. he had a history of saying stupid things. It might not have been a 55-40 win McCaskill without the rape comment but she might have been able to squeak by just showing highlights of other stuff he said. All that being said she probably would have lost if somebody a bit more respectable wont he Republican primary.

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I'm willing to bet that the GOP establishment is done with just letting primaries go their own way and will be trying to make sure that another Todd Akin incident won't happen again. Right now, unless Joe Miller miraculously gets the nomination yet again or a Georgia candidate says something really, really bad, I peg the Senate going either way.
The Republicans have to win 6 seats or 5 Seats and try get Angus King to switch sides to take control of the Senate. Easier said then done


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Old 10-26-2013, 11:15 AM   #903
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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I definitely don't agree with everything the Democratic Party or Obama does.

I actually agree with the Republicans over the Democrats on issues like illegal immigration and capital punishment, but I can't support a party so dominated by a neo-hawk slash pseudo-Christian extremist ideology that I think is completely toxic.
VIDEO-CLick to Watch!:


Then you agree that those bastards saddly known as the GOP wanted to shut down the government from the time they took the house.

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Old 10-26-2013, 03:52 PM   #904
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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In all reality I think he might have lost even without the rape comment. he had a history of saying stupid things. It might not have been a 55-40 win McCaskill without the rape comment but she might have been able to squeak by just showing highlights of other stuff he said. All that being said she probably would have lost if somebody a bit more respectable wont he Republican primary.
The polls were showing that before the rape comments, Akin was leading pretty comfortably. And McCaskill was far too unpopular. The writing was on the wall for her.

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Old 10-26-2013, 04:02 PM   #905
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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The polls were showing that before the rape comments, Akin was leading pretty comfortably. And McCaskill was far too unpopular. The writing was on the wall for her.
McCaskill didn't start slinging the mud before Akin said the rape thing. My guess is she would just flood the airwaves with stupid things Akin said in September and October. Akin just sped up that process in Mid August and made the target that much easier since it was a recent comment(that gained national attention), it also made it much easier for the Democratic party to focus on other races(I am pretty sure if it was closer they would have given Missouri more effort)


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Old 10-27-2013, 03:40 PM   #906
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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McCaskill didn't start slinging the mud before Akin said the rape thing. My guess is she would just flood the airwaves with stupid things Akin said in September and October. Akin just sped up that process in Mid August and made the target that much easier since it was a recent comment(that gained national attention), it also made it much easier for the Democratic party to focus on other races(I am pretty sure if it was closer they would have given Missouri more effort)
McCaskill's strategy wasn't about slinging mud. There really was no need to. Mudslinging wasn't going to help her win.

Her strategy was manipulating stupid GOP primary voters into voting for Akin as the nominee over the other two. The polls showed that she was strongest against Akin (even though Akin was comfortably leading) and she made a gamble because he had a history of foot in mouth syndrome. Utterly brilliant if you ask me. Dirty, but brilliant. If Akin didn't say his rape comments during the race, he would have most likely come out on top because McCaskill just had too much going against her and it's Missouri for crying out loud. But Akin's comments during the race along with the level of depravity attached to them, allowed McCaskill to come out on top.

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Old 10-27-2013, 03:58 PM   #907
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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McCaskill's strategy wasn't about slinging mud. There really was no need to. Mudslinging wasn't going to help her win.

Her strategy was manipulating stupid GOP primary voters into voting for Akin as the nominee over the other two. The polls showed that she was strongest against Akin (even though Akin was comfortably leading) and she made a gamble because he had a history of foot in mouth syndrome. Utterly brilliant if you ask me. Dirty, but brilliant. If Akin didn't say his rape comments during the race, he would have most likely come out on top because McCaskill just had too much going against her and it's Missouri for crying out loud. But Akin's comments during the race along with the level of depravity attached to them, allowed McCaskill to come out on top.
Mitch McConnell is losing in polls now, I don't expect that to hold up after he goes on a full out rampage on his political opponents. I am guessing in the case of Akin their was many people who when polled in Summer 2012 had no clue who he was and said they are leaning for the Republican guy, it doesn't take much to set the narrative and change the polls 5-10 points

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...079.html#polls

Here are some pre-rape comment polls

PPP (D)8/20 - 8/20500 LV4344Akin +1
SurveyUSA*8/9 - 8/12585 LV4051Akin +11
Rasmussen Reports7/30 - 7/30500 LV4447Akin +3
Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon7/23 - 7/25625 LV4449Akin +5

Now while that may seem like alot that is an average of 5% better before McCaskill had a chance to go on the offensive and mud sling, which is an easy margin to cover for an unknown candidate

When you also consider that polling average said McCaskill would only win by 6.3% when she won by 15.7%, you question how much these polls scewed towards the Republicans(so that 5% was probably overstated as well)

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Old 10-27-2013, 04:05 PM   #908
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

I never trust PPP's polling. They're far too Democratically biased and ask really bad questions.

And I would expect McConnell to recover, look at Harry Reid, he was losing badly in the polls until the very end (helped by Sharon Angle being a terrible candidate).

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Old 10-27-2013, 04:12 PM   #909
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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I never trust PPP's polling. They're far too Democratically biased and ask really bad questions.
Yet they were rated the #1 polling firm for the 2012 election. Ironically their numbers generally slightly favored Republicans as well(ie if they said Dems would win by 4% but the Dems won by 4.2% that favors the Republicans by 0.2%)

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And I would expect McConnell to recover, look at Harry Reid, he was losing badly in the polls until the very end (helped by Sharon Angle being a terrible candidate).
And much like McCaskill chances are McConnell's polling numbers will be at the worst Summer 2014, before he goes on the offensive and then they will get better

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Old 10-27-2013, 07:17 PM   #910
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

Have you actually read some of PPP's polling? Their questions are beyond awful.

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Old 10-27-2013, 08:07 PM   #911
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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Have you actually read some of PPP's polling? Their questions are beyond awful.
Doesn't change the fact they had the best polling results in 2012 election, so like them or not you can't argue results. Now will that be the truth for 2014 or 2016, I don't know but it seemed in terms of 2012 they had a fairly good grasp on swing states

It should also be pointed out PPP will do any poll people pay them for so that is one reason you get alot of weird questions

By my count of 11 swing states, they had 5 that favored Republicans(polling result was less then the actual result) and 6 that favored Demcorats(polling result was lower then actual result) but when you collectively combine them(and the different in results between all 11 states) they favored Republicans slightly more


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Old 10-27-2013, 08:27 PM   #912
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

Having the best polling results in the 2012 election was not hard to do...it was the worst polling ever.

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Old 10-27-2013, 08:30 PM   #913
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Having the best polling results in the 2012 election was not hard to do...it was the worst polling ever.
Well one company stood out above the rest with pretty accurate results, the only blunders PPP seemed to make was under polling Democrats by +3% in some states (Iowa, Mich, Wisc, NH, and Nevada) while 2 states were in Democrat favor by 2%(Ohio and NC) and the rest were within 1% of actual results

Should be interesting to see who has better polling in 2016(can't really say 2014 since mid terms are a different breed)

By the way the best person in terms of predicting Results was Nate Silver here is what he had to say about McCaskill chances of winning just after the rape comments was made

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ate-race/?_r=0

Quote:
In my review of Senate races last week, I classified Representative Todd Akin of Missouri, who won the Republican primary earlier this month, as a very slight favorite over the Democratic incumbent in the state, Claire McCaskill.
A "slight favorite" against somebody who isn't liked is not that great a thing in a summer poll, as I said rape comments or not McCaskill probably would have rolled out a smear campaign to squeak it out. The rape comments just made it much easier to win. I still am not delusional that McCaskill would have won against a better candidate, but I think very good chance she beat Akin, rape comment or not.


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Old 10-28-2013, 12:39 AM   #914
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

Until the pollsters stop doing almost 100% robo-calling on landlines, I will not take anything the polls have to say.

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Old 10-28-2013, 12:53 AM   #915
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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In all reality I think he might have lost even without the rape comment. he had a history of saying stupid things. It might not have been a 55-40 win McCaskill without the rape comment but she might have been able to squeak by just showing highlights of other stuff he said. All that being said she probably would have lost if somebody a bit more respectable wont he Republican primary.



The Republicans have to win 6 seats or 5 Seats and try get Angus King to switch sides to take control of the Senate. Easier said then done
Angus King is too liberal for this GOP caucus. He's not like Lieberman, who constantly threatened that kinda crap to suit his political calculus.

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Old 10-28-2013, 12:54 AM   #916
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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Until the pollsters stop doing almost 100% robo-calling on landlines, I will not take anything the polls have to say.
The land-lines thing is dumb. Honestly, what percentage of people under the age of 40 even have a land-line nowadays?

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Old 10-28-2013, 12:56 AM   #917
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

It would explain why Republicans were so out of touch with reality on election day.

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Old 10-28-2013, 01:30 AM   #918
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Default Re: Discussion: Government Shutdown

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The land-lines thing is dumb. Honestly, what percentage of people under the age of 40 even have a land-line nowadays?
Exactly....which is why the polls were so off, they were polling almost exclusively a demographic over the age of actually 60, not 40...40 is still young.

And this demographic was also predominantly rural.

So yes, big problem....

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