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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do?
$1.5 billion 3 1.63%
$1 billion 8 4.35%
$900 million 11 5.98%
$800 million 20 10.87%
$700 million 45 24.46%
$600 million 53 28.80%
$500 million 38 20.65%
$400 million 4 2.17%
$300 million 2 1.09%
$200 million 0 0%
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 10-30-2013, 03:15 PM   #126
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I have no doubt it will make MORE overseas. Because well...it's the world vs one country... I just think the title will be SLIGHTLY limiting

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Old 10-30-2013, 03:44 PM   #127
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

The question that I'm asking though, is not "how much more can this make over TFA" but "How much of the Avengers audience can this hold on to", and the starting point for that is $888m.

IM3 held $806m of that. I can't see Cap and crew going lower than $500m. I'll alter that based on how Thor does in the next few weeks.

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Old 10-30-2013, 03:49 PM   #128
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

It does have more Avengers cast members than any other phase 2

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Old 10-30-2013, 04:36 PM   #129
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moridin View Post
The question that I'm asking though, is not "how much more can this make over TFA" but "How much of the Avengers audience can this hold on to", and the starting point for that is $888m.

IM3 held $806m of that. I can't see Cap and crew going lower than $500m. I'll alter that based on how Thor does in the next few weeks.
Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm thinking.

I'm hoping that overseas it'll be less about Cap's name holding the BO potential back and more about the Marvel/Avenger and Disney relationship to the movie itself.

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Old 10-30-2013, 05:25 PM   #130
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moridin View Post
The question that I'm asking though, is not "how much more can this make over TFA" but "How much of the Avengers audience can this hold on to", and the starting point for that is $888m.

IM3 held $806m of that. I can't see Cap and crew going lower than $500m. I'll alter that based on how Thor does in the next few weeks.
How'd ya come up with those numbers?

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Old 10-30-2013, 08:52 PM   #131
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Suzanne78 View Post
Yeah, that's pretty much what I'm thinking.

I'm hoping that overseas it'll be less about Cap's name holding the BO potential back and more about the Marvel/Avenger and Disney relationship to the movie itself.
The first movie made more overseas than at home, $193 million to $176 million, which should have put the fears of poor international performance to rest. That was despite poor marketing from Paramount, which has always had difficulty selling films overseas.


Now that Disney has taken over the marketing of Marvel's films CATWS is going to benefit from the parent studio's expert guidance. Unlike Paramount, Disney isn't going to be timid about selling the film in other countries. Captain America got massive exposure in The Avengers and that is what they can base their campaign on. The ads can remind the international audience of Cap's role in TA and go from there.


In the three years since CATFA's release the overseas market has seen immense growth, so the $193M that film earned can conceivably double, or more. A total gross of $500M seems all but assured, with $600 - $700M definitely possible.

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Old 10-31-2013, 04:21 AM   #132
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

The whole "brand America" doesn't sell overseas stuff is hokum... or overblown at the very least. The world has been on a steady diet of pro-American movies and TV shows for decades now.

Other than a loony minority, who either way wouldn't have had any say with respect to the box office bottom line, I don't think anyone sees "America" as the bad guy. Do many people over the world disagree with some of the politics and methods used by the government and large corporation? Absolutely. However, newsflash... so do many Americans.

"American ideals" per se, especially the ones Cap embodies, people all over the world are on board with, almost universally.

Let's take a look at the WW grosses of the Phase 1 movies as a %age of total gross.

Code:
IM          45.6%
TIH         48.8%
IM2         49.9%
Thor        59.7%
CA:TFA      52.3%
Yes, this is something of a simplistic assessment that doesn't take into consideration many factors like how recognizable a character was in the US vs. outside the US prior to the movies, the ascendant WW popularity/buzz surrounding the Marvel Studios movies, etc.

However, if I were to surmise, the "America" part of "Captain America" didn't really affect the WW box office take, and even if it did, the effect is much smaller than most are making it out to be.


Last edited by fixxxer; 10-31-2013 at 04:29 AM. Reason: lining up the tabular data
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Old 10-31-2013, 01:40 PM   #133
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I voted $500M. I hope it does more because the story looks really well but Cap comes off at times as the least interesting Avenger due to the patriotism. But again, I hope I'm wrong.

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Old 10-31-2013, 03:54 PM   #134
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Moridin View Post
The question that I'm asking though, is not "how much more can this make over TFA" but "How much of the Avengers audience can this hold on to", and the starting point for that is $888m.

IM3 held $806m of that. I can't see Cap and crew going lower than $500m. I'll alter that based on how Thor does in the next few weeks.
This is a *very* good observation. Holding onto the Avengers audience is what's going on. I think 500M is what we'd be looking at if Cap 2 wasn't a great film. If it is a great film, we should see something closer to 750M.

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Old 11-10-2013, 01:43 AM   #135
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I'm thinking low 200s domestic, high 200s foreign for a roughly $500 M worldwide take.

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Old 11-10-2013, 01:57 AM   #136
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I have huge hopes on this movie to make up to the avengers level

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Old 11-10-2013, 02:03 AM   #137
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
I'm thinking low 200s domestic, high 200s foreign for a roughly $500 M worldwide take.
That's close to what I'm thinking right now as well. I also think with the April release date and SHIELD/Avengers supporting cast, Cap might actually top Thor domestically in Phase 2. Their domestic takes in Phase 1 were so close, and I feel like Cap has more advantages this go-round. I'm sure Thor will remain tops worldwide, though.

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Old 11-10-2013, 10:41 AM   #138
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Opening Weekend - $60 to $70 million
Domestic - $140 to $180 million
Worldwide - $425 to $500 million

I think this movie will earn more money if it comes out in summer.
So you're predicting a domestic drop after Cap was in the #3 highest grossing movie of all time!? really!?

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Old 11-10-2013, 11:05 AM   #139
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by flickchick85 View Post
That's close to what I'm thinking right now as well. I also think with the April release date and SHIELD/Avengers supporting cast, Cap might actually top Thor domestically in Phase 2. Their domestic takes in Phase 1 were so close, and I feel like Cap has more advantages this go-round. I'm sure Thor will remain tops worldwide, though.
Cap 1 sold roughly the same # of tickets with far more competition than Thor. Even though Thor: The Dark World is looking at low $200s domestic, Cap with a month to itself might push into the mid-$200s.


I think a great model for Captain America foreign growth is Star Trek: Into Darkness. While I doubt we'll see the gross double, I think we'll see it head well into the upper $200 M range.

I'd really like to see this film break $500 M ww. I used to be way more confident about that then I am now, as I expected Thor to have a much stronger post-Avengers growth (I expected $250 M domestic, 500 M foreign.) Even post Avengers, the GA is still only marginally more interested in the non-Downey Avengers than they were before it.

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Old 11-10-2013, 11:44 AM   #140
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

Thor's release wasn't as well marketed as Cap's has been so far. We didn't get a TDW 5 min preview prior to IM3. If we did, I think TDW could have made more. Between that and very strong buzz around the trailer, I think Cap has a shot at going over 500 mil. I think if reviews for the movie are as strong as I think they could be (assuming the potential of the film in the trailers is realized), it will have strong week to week drops. Say what you will about quality not meaning something to BO, but quality certainly has helped these films sustain their BO performance. If Cap 2 gets awesome reviews, I think it will be reflected in the opening.

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Old 11-10-2013, 12:16 PM   #141
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Thor's release wasn't as well marketed as Cap's has been so far. We didn't get a TDW 5 min preview prior to IM3. If we did, I think TDW could have made more. Between that and very strong buzz around the trailer, I think Cap has a shot at going over 500 mil. I think if reviews for the movie are as strong as I think they could be (assuming the potential of the film in the trailers is realized), it will have strong week to week drops. Say what you will about quality not meaning something to BO, but quality certainly has helped these films sustain their BO performance. If Cap 2 gets awesome reviews, I think it will be reflected in the opening.
Agreed. That's what shocked me. We didn't get the Thor blitz until like 2-3 weeks prior to it's release and it didn't even feel like a blitz at all. While we got a Cap trailer 6 months before it's release.

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Old 11-10-2013, 09:43 PM   #142
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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So you're predicting a domestic drop after Cap was in the #3 highest grossing movie of all time!? really!?
Obviously I like to give my predictions with the lowest/highest number (worst/best scenario) that the film could get.

With Thor: TDW opening less than 100 million in the U.S. and it probably won't gross more than 800 million, I'm curious what impact would Captain America get from this. The Avengers boost is not over 50% for TDW. A couple of people here predicted that TDW would open over 90 to 100 million then 800 million worldwide.

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Old 11-11-2013, 05:09 AM   #143
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Obviously I like to give my predictions with the lowest/highest number (worst/best scenario) that the film could get.

With Thor: TDW opening less than 100 million in the U.S. and it probably won't gross more than 800 million, I'm curious what impact would Captain America get from this. The Avengers boost is not over 50% for TDW. A couple of people here predicted that TDW would open over 90 to 100 million then 800 million worldwide.

The US reviews may have dropped TDW's opening weekend take here. If TWS is better reviewed it might do better in the US.

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Old 11-11-2013, 07:33 AM   #144
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I think Winter Soldier will do just as well as The Dark World domestically. Internationally it has no chance of doing as well but I do think it can hit 275-300mil.

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Old 11-11-2013, 11:56 AM   #145
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

TTDW just might have cracked $90M if it had IMAX all to itself as most MCU films have. It only missed it by less than $4M.

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Old 11-11-2013, 02:10 PM   #146
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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TTDW just might have cracked $90M if it had IMAX all to itself as most MCU films have. It only missed it by less than $4M.
Thor: TDW got the same growth rate for an opening weekend as the IM series (about 30%) so I'm expecting TWS to open at around $82-84 million. Total gross numbers are really variable so I'm not sure on final totals for both films.

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Old 11-11-2013, 02:50 PM   #147
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I'm very shocked at the amount of publicity Marvel's giving CATWS so far. Not just the multiple teaser/trailers that are with T:TDW, but the reactions the trailer's getting so far. Almost universal positive reactions across the internet. And the views for the trailer on Marvel UK already exceed 21 million in less than three weeks.

If the trailers stay/exceed the quality of the first trailer, and if Marvel keeps this marketing push up, I don't think a $100+ million OW domestically is out of the question. And overseas, Marvel/Disney's rep seems to be gaining, so international numbers could be very surprising.

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Old 11-11-2013, 03:06 PM   #148
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

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I'm very shocked at the amount of publicity Marvel's giving CATWS so far. Not just the multiple teaser/trailers that are with T:TDW, but the reactions the trailer's getting so far. Almost universal positive reactions across the internet. And the views for the trailer on Marvel UK already exceed 21 million in less than three weeks.

If the trailers stay/exceed the quality of the first trailer, and if Marvel keeps this marketing push up, I don't think a $100+ million OW domestically is out of the question. And overseas, Marvel/Disney's rep seems to be gaining, so international numbers could be very surprising.
I think they're going all out for CA: TWS so they can give GotG attention as well.

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Old 11-11-2013, 04:26 PM   #149
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

500 mill should be the target for this...and i think it will hit it.

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Old 11-11-2013, 05:50 PM   #150
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Default Re: Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

I think Cap 2 is going to out-perform Thor 2 domestically.

By 30-40 m.

Overseas it might fall short by only 50 m.

So their WW gross should be closer this time around.

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