Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

[Spider-Fan]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

It depends how you look at it. In many ways, Iron Man 3 functioned as a sequel to the Avengers at the box office.

If you look at Thor in terms of growth from Thor 1 to Thor 2? The opening is successful. If you look at it in terms of "% of people who saw Avengers, and decided Thor was a character they liked enough to give another shot at the box office" it's kind of pitiful. Where as Iron Man 3 retained 83% of the Avengers opening weekend crowd, Thor failed to retain even half.

It just shows what a large gap there is between Downey's Iron Man and everyone else, and that Marvel Studios is not quite as synonymous with Box office smashes as I hoped.

Maybe I'm extrapolating too much from this, but I see Thor as the MCU's safe #2 character. If Thor: The Dark World caps out at about $600 M, that in my mind "caps" most of the non-Iron Man MCU.

If Thor can't do $700-750 M, can Cap still do $500 M? Will Guardians of the Galaxy have a TIH, or worse, Green Lanternesque performance? I guess I saw a true blockbuster Thor performance ($250 M domestic, $500 M foreign) as indicative of a safety net for other Marvel properties.

I think all things considered, Thor 2 is definitely going down as a success and Thor 3 will be coming. Sure, it didn't "balloon" like Iron Man 3 did after Avengers, but it is still a strong performance. It's going to be interesting to see what kind of legs it has, given that this isn't a summer release like their other films. Would making 700-750 have been nice? Sure, but let's not get greedy guys. Thor 2 is still going to outperform the 1st film, and Thor 3 won't be in doubt. That's good for the fans

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

It depends how you look at it. In many ways, Iron Man 3 functioned as a sequel to the Avengers at the box office.

If you look at Thor in terms of growth from Thor 1 to Thor 2? The opening is successful. If you look at it in terms of "% of people who saw Avengers, and decided Thor was a character they liked enough to give another shot at the box office" it's kind of pitiful. Where as Iron Man 3 retained 83% of the Avengers opening weekend crowd, Thor failed to retain even half.

It just shows what a large gap there is between Downey's Iron Man and everyone else, and that Marvel Studios is not quite as synonymous with Box office smashes as I hoped.

Maybe I'm extrapolating too much from this, but I see Thor as the MCU's safe #2 character. If Thor: The Dark World caps out at about $600 M, that in my mind "caps" most of the non-Iron Man MCU.

If Thor can't do $700-750 M, can Cap still do $500 M? Will Guardians of the Galaxy have a TIH, or worse, Green Lanternesque performance? I guess I saw a true blockbuster Thor performance ($250 M domestic, $500 M foreign) as indicative of a safety net for other Marvel properties.

It could actually do 500mil overseas and for all we know 250mil domestically. I'm not predicting 250mil, I'm thinking 230-240mil right now. That's close enough though. Captain America: Winter Soldier is not going to do Thor: The Dark World numbers internationally but I think it could do just as well as Thor domestically.

[Mysteryman]

Cap 2 might do 230- 240 domestically?
I like the sound of that.

[warriorking]

Lets see how Thor is treated in Avengers 2, curious to see if Portman gets a call to appear in Avengers 2 with Thor now on earth...

[Moonwing]

Originally Posted by warriorking

Lets see how Thor is treated in Avengers 2, curious to see if Portman gets a call to appear in Avengers 2 as well with Thor now on earth...

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Noooo....just no. Every review mention her character as useless wallpaper in this movie and her acting as wooden and uninterested as it could be. And marvel know it -they deleted two scenes with her and redone the ending to not let movie end on a note that Thor run back to her. Only small scene in after,after credits that GA didn't watch normally. So nop, no Portman in avengers 2.

[Spider-Fan]

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Thor is living with her. I assume that she will at least cameo. She'll also be in Thor 3.

[Moonwing]

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Originally Posted by Spider-Fan

Thor is living with her. I assume that she will at least cameo. She'll also be in Thor 3.

I do not think that he is living with her. They deleted ending that made it clear. They done it on purpose.

[Spider-Fan]

Originally Posted by Moonwing

I do not think that he is living with her. They deleted ending that made it clear. They done it on purpose.

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

But, he clearly went back to her at the end of the movie. So, he ended up with her. Left Asgard to be with her. The audience knows this given the dialogue at the end (even if they didn't see the scene). I think a cameo is very likely.

[Moonwing]

Originally Posted by Spider-Fan

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

But, he clearly went back to her at the end of the movie. So, he ended up with her. Left Asgard to be with her. The audience knows this given the dialogue at the end (even if they didn't see the scene). I think a cameo is very likely.

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

We will see. For me it left all this stuff unclear on purpose. They deleted the ending with him in human closes kissing her so they didn't want to make a point. And cameos are normally for popular characters so Loki is more likely make and appearance than her. And yep Thor 3 is destined to have her reappear...ugh.

[Spider-Fan]

Originally Posted by Moonwing

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

We will see. For me it left all this stuff unclear on purpose. They deleted the ending with him in human closes kissing her so they didn't want to make a point. And cameos are normally for popular characters so Loki is more likely make and appearance than her. And yep Thor 3 is destined to have her reappear...ugh.

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

I think I remember Whedon saying Loki will not be in AoU. I think the ending was left open for her to cameo in AoU like Pepper did before.

But either way, AoU is going to make huge bank.

[Moonwing]

Originally Posted by Spider-Fan

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

I think I remember Whedon saying Loki will not be in AoU. I think the ending was left open for her to cameo in AoU like Pepper did before.

But either way, AoU is going to make huge bank.

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

I know, It`s just for example-he cant cameo in AoU as he is officially KIA and if some one will see him Thor would know and so **** will hit the fan tooo sooon. About Portman we will see but I would not hold my breath about her appearance.

I think it will decrease domestically but sky rocket OS.

[Mysteryman]

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Originally Posted by Moonwing

Noooo....just no. Every review mention her character as useless wallpaper in this movie and her acting as wooden and uninterested as it could be. And marvel know it -they deleted two scenes with her and redone the ending to not let movie end on a note that Thor run back to her. Only small scene in after,after credits that GA didn't watch normally. So nop, no Portman in avengers 2.

How do you know they redid the ending?
And please dont mention the ACTUAL ending in detail.
Some of us have not seen it yet.

[Spider-Fan]

I agree....so use spoiler tags guys!!!

[Shawn30]

Originally Posted by Moonwing

Spoiler!!! Click to Read!:

Noooo....just no. Every review mention her character as useless wallpaper in this movie and her acting as wooden and uninterested as it could be. And marvel know it -they deleted two scenes with her and redone the ending to not let movie end on a note that Thor run back to her. Only small scene in after,after credits that GA didn't watch normally. So nop, no Portman in avengers 2.

That's BS. I could link you to several or more reviews that were very positive about the Jane character. The PR for a female character like Jane, coupled with Natalie Portman's star power and talent would make for a nice addition to Avengers 2 even if no more than a cameo scene or two. Natalie has worked hard doing the publicity rounds here and international for the film. As for cut scenes, a number of them exist and I'm hoping fora directors cut.

But to say all reviewers hated NP or Jane in TDW is total BS.

[Pond]

After credit scenes are NOT deleted scenes.

[Silver Surfer]

Box Office Mojo -

Thor: The Dark World is now guaranteed to earn more than $400 million overseas by the end of its run.

Added with a minimum of 200M domestic and we are looking at a laughably easy 600 million. Still gonna stick with my 700M WW total. It's at 327M WW btw

[Saturius]

I actually think this is a great number, especially for a November weekend release. Happy with the total and looking forward to Thor 3.

[Docker2.0]

I picked $700M as well. It's only been out a little over a week but it almost has it's total gross from part 1. That's great news!

[kedrell]

Another thing is that TTDW doesn't have IMAX all to itself. It had to split the screens with Ender's Game. I wonder if that hadn't been the case the movie might have reached $90M for the OW.

[psylockolussus]

Originally Posted by psylockolussus

My 1st prediction - $500 to $700 million

My 2nd prediction - $500 to $650 million

My final prediction before the release - $600 to 800 million worldwide. With $180 to $280 million gross in the U.S.

Hmmm at this point I think we can scratch 800 million, if this ends over 600 to 700 million then I was right all along and the people who accused me that I was wrong has been wrong all along.

[DarthSkywalker]

You really do give yourself a lot of room in your predictions.

[Silver Surfer]

A 200M cushion? Really went out on a limb huh? lol

[DarthSkywalker]

Originally Posted by Silver Surfer

A 200M cushion? Really went out on a limb huh? lol

It really was a tough choice.

[samsnee]

I wonder if opening outside of summer also made a difference. Has any movie had a $100 million opening outside of summer? I don't think this is a disappointment but we'll see how it holds up. It needs to make a lot next weekend because it will drop dramatically once Hunger Games opens.

[DarthSkywalker]

Opening it out of the summer helped it. Didn't need to compete for screens or eyeballs.