The box office "bar of success" for Batman/ Superman.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

Personally I think Batman v. Superman will make around 700-800 million. Considering it's going to be a very crowded summer in 2015. I think the reviews are going to play a big part in the film finding it's 'legs'. Though studios don't like to admit it, the Tomatometer and Metacritic ratings do play a large part in a film's gross and can be the discerining factor in a film becoming a record breaking hit, or simply being a success.

le sigh...that was my guess as well for the same reasons. I also think positive reviews will play apart if the movie is to break that billion mark. Though I don't think reviews matter on a whole to CBMs...better reviews will help with legs and WoM.

[MrsKent26]

He's probably right about the impact of reviews, but I don't like how that works at all. I think these reviewers are given too much power.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by MrsKent26

He's probably right about the impact of reviews, but I don't like how that works at all. I think these reviewers are given too much power.

It is somewhat an issue, given that a spoken percentage of critics often have a prejudiced view against big budget Superhero films.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

It is somewhat an issue, given that a spoken percentage of critics often have a prejudiced view against big budget Superhero films.

Exactly...I really believe IM got the reviews it did because RDJ. Not that he wasn't awesome, but I don't think any critic would have given kudos to another actor turning in that same performance if it wasn't a critical darling like RDJ.

[Sex]

Lots and lots of monies.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by charl_huntress

Exactly...I really believe IM got the reviews it did because RDJ. Not that he wasn't awesome, but I don't think any critic would have given kudos to another actor turning in that same performance if it wasn't a critical darling like RDJ.

Interesting opinion.

It would suggest that a large part of B v. S's reviews will hinge on Affleck's performance.

[theShape]

Originally Posted by Wise

Personally I think Batman v. Superman will make around 700-800 million. Considering it's going to be a very crowded summer in 2015.

I hope you're joking. Crowded summer or not, we're talking about a movie that has the potential to be one of the all-time highest grossers. It's literally a historical event. This isn't Iron Man 2...featuring the first film appearance of War Machine! This is the first time Superman and Batman...literally two of the most iconic superheroes in all of pop culture...have ever shared the big screen together since their creations, following a successful Superman reboot which grossed nearly 700mil worldwide on its own. To say that this next film will only make slightly more than MOS seems a bit dense, if I'm being honest.

This is a movie that may very well make over $200million domestically (a la The Avengers) in its opening weekend alone. The thing hasn't started filming yet so we haven't seen even a hint of the immense buzz that's going to build over the next year and a half. Honestly, if Iron Man 3 could have the box office run that it had, I pretty much have little doubt that Superman/Batman (also featuring Wonder Woman) will be even bigger.

[MessiahDecoy123]

SvB need to hit at least 800 m.

Justice League needs to surpass TDKR.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

Interesting opinion.

It would suggest that a large part of B v. S's reviews will hinge on Affleck's performance.

Reading those words... Yes...I think you are right, which is why I'm going to wait to see and hope for the best.

[Jekecy]

Originally Posted by Wise

It is somewhat an issue, given that a spoken percentage of critics often have a prejudiced view against big budget Superhero films.

Hasn't affected the good ones, apparently. Unless I'm missing an unfairly judged movie that suffered dramatically due to critics.

Originally Posted by charl_huntress

Exactly...I really believe IM got the reviews it did because RDJ. Not that he wasn't awesome, but I don't think any critic would have given kudos to another actor turning in that same performance if it wasn't a critical darling like RDJ.

But you're stating the obvious. Everyone knows RDJ carried the film, so it's only proper critics focused in on that aspect and applauded it. There's nothing wrong with that.

Yes, Iron Man would've had a different outcome sans RDJ. Though you can take any film, remove a major component, and come to the same conclusion.

[InJustice]

Originally Posted by theShape

I hope you're joking. Crowded summer or not, we're talking about a movie that has the potential to be one of the all-time highest grossers. It's literally a historical event. This isn't Iron Man 2...featuring the first film appearance of War Machine! This is the first time Superman and Batman...literally two of the most iconic superheroes in all of pop culture...have ever shared the big screen together since their creations, following a successful Superman reboot which grossed nearly 700mil worldwide on its own. To say that this next film will only make slightly more than MOS seems a bit dense, if I'm being honest.

This is a movie that may very well make over $200million domestically (a la The Avengers) in its opening weekend alone. The thing hasn't started filming yet so we haven't seen even a hint of the immense buzz that's going to build over the next year and a half. Honestly, if Iron Man 3 could have the box office run that it had, I pretty much have little doubt that Superman/Batman (also featuring Wonder Woman) will be even bigger.

Why would you hope he's joking? I'm also expecting 800 to be the minimum. The thing is we simply do not know enough about the movie to justify predicting $1bil. And just because it will feature Batman and Superman, doesn't mean that 1bil is a feasible goal anyway. A movie's success is not based on solely 2 characters, it's an assemblage of other stuff too.

Why would you even compare IM3's success to BvS's potential? The reason it did as well as it did is because of RDJ's immense popularity, the growing popularity of the IM character, wit, humour, and sarcasm in dialogue. BvS doesn't come close seeing as how little we know about the film.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by theShape

I hope you're joking. Crowded summer or not, we're talking about a movie that has the potential to be one of the all-time highest grossers. It's literally a historical event. This isn't Iron Man 2...featuring the first film appearance of War Machine! This is the first time Superman and Batman...literally two of the most iconic superheroes in all of pop culture...have ever shared the big screen together since their creations, following a successful Superman reboot which grossed nearly 700mil worldwide on its own. To say that this next film will only make slightly more than MOS seems a bit dense, if I'm being honest.

This is a movie that may very well make over $200million domestically (a la The Avengers) in its opening weekend alone. The thing hasn't started filming yet so we haven't seen even a hint of the immense buzz that's going to build over the next year and a half. Honestly, if Iron Man 3 could have the box office run that it had, I pretty much have little doubt that Superman/Batman (also featuring Wonder Woman) will be even bigger.

All that stuff means a lot to you and I, fans of these characters. it's the reason we're posting on these boards when we should be working. But to the general audience it's really not as important as you would think.

If it gets similar reviews to MOS then yes I see it only doing 700-800m. It would likely do 800-900 if it came out in a year where it wasn't up against Avengers 2, Jurassic World, Independence Day 2, a Terminator reboot and Ant-Man.

If it's a smash hit and the critics rave about Affleck and whoever plays Luthor's performances then it's definitely got a good shot at a billion. You have to remember that Avengers received overwhelmingly positive reviews, so did Nolan's Batman films.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Jekecy

But you're stating the obvious. Everyone knows RDJ carried the film, so it's only proper critics focused in on that aspect and applauded it. There's nothing wrong with that.

Yes, Iron Man would've had a different outcome sans RDJ. Though you can take any film, remove a major component, and come to the same conclusion.

My point was he was the reason the film scored so high. All these critics ignored all the usual things they hate about CBMs and that movie was flawed with them because he was the awesome...lol. They just liked him...not really the movie itself.

They obviously like Ben a lot too...so I'm hoping he wins them over regardless of the rest of the films faults.

[Jekecy]

Originally Posted by theShape

I hope you're joking. Crowded summer or not, we're talking about a movie that has the potential to be one of the all-time highest grossers. It's literally a historical event. This isn't Iron Man 2...featuring the first film appearance of War Machine! This is the first time Superman and Batman...literally two of the most iconic superheroes in all of pop culture...have ever shared the big screen together since their creations, following a successful Superman reboot which grossed nearly 700mil worldwide on its own. To say that this next film will only make slightly more than MOS seems a bit dense, if I'm being honest.

This is a movie that may very well make over $200million domestically (a la The Avengers) in its opening weekend alone. The thing hasn't started filming yet so we haven't seen even a hint of the immense buzz that's going to build over the next year and a half. Honestly, if Iron Man 3 could have the box office run that it had, I pretty much have little doubt that Superman/Batman (also featuring Wonder Woman) will be even bigger.

While no one should underestimate the powerhouse potential of a BvS film, no project can carry its whole theatrical run on opening weekend hype alone. Granted this film will be somewhat critic proof as everyone will be clamoring to see the clash of the titans. However word of mouth can easily crush its legs in due time.

Look at MOS. Broke the June record (which many thought would be impossible for a reboot) and truly was set to crush all other reboots at the box office. But the film itself ended up polarizing critics AND audiences alike. Dropped to the third slot the following week, and was out of the top 5 two week after that. The result was it "only" made just under 700 million.

Since BvS is already following up a divisive film, it does not have the advantage of a first film breaking out the gate. It will be carrying the baggage of MOS. More than anything Snyder and Goyer need this film to be received well. Pre-release reviews have become increasingly important and has shown to exponentially amplify box office results. Avatar and Avengers being standout examples.

Should BvS miraculously pull in a 80-90% Tomatometer, it easily cements itself as either the #1 or #2 box office smash of the year. The Batman/Superman hype alone will carry this film to astronomical levels as great word of mouth increases. Anything short of that however, and I genuinely see this "struggling" for that 1 billion mark.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by charl_huntress

My point was he was the reason the film scored so high. All these critics ignored all the usual things they hate about CBMs and that movie was flawed with them because he was the awesome...lol. They just liked him...not really the movie itself.

They obviously like Ben a lot too...so I'm hoping he wins them over regardless of the rest of the films faults.

I really just hope he takes a look at that script. Having the screenwriter of The Town and Gone Baby Gone working on the production, they'd be crazy to not at least ask Ben for his input.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

I really just hope he takes a look at that script. Having the screenwriter of The Town and Gone Baby Gone working on the production, they'd be crazy to not at least ask Ben for his input.

This is probably for another thread, but quick question if you don't mind me asking. I'm not a movie buff per se. I like what I like, but I spend a lot of time analyzing movies. What about Affleck as a screenwriter makes him an ideal person to look it over? I'm asking more about his qualities. I just keep hearing a lot of people saying that.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by InJustice

Just because the Nolan films were popular doesn't mean that people will always flock to see Batman movies because of Nolan's contributions. You have to take into account that Christian Bale is not going to be in this movie, and we have a different creative direction for Batman. Already it has deviated from Nolan's films, meaning that comparing TDK and TDKR's box office success is completely irrelevant. That being said I must ask, how is TDK and TDKR's box office success even relevant to MOSII?

Batman is a bigger name than Christopher Nolan.

Many said Amazing Spider-Man was going to bomb because no one wanted a reboot. It didn't perform as well as the previous installment, but still did well. 25% drop domestic, 10% drop foreign.

My thought process is that the whole "Christopher Nolan" whining and ranting will only extend to these shores, and that half of the fans that would have left due to a reboot, will stick around due to curiosity over the two most famous Superheroes of all time finally duking it out, and teaming together. I see this doing roughly $400 M domestic, or about a 10% drop from The Dark Knight Rises.

Foreign box-office is a different story. This is the sort of movie foreign audiences eat up. Giant, bombastic, 3-D, with two icons (one of whom, is the only eponymous film character to have 2 $1 B movies.) I'm saying the absolute floor for this is $600 M foreign.

Calling this a Man of Steel II is incredibly reductive, when a Super Hero more popular than Superman is co-starring. That's why the Dark Knight/ DKR's performances matter to this film.

Originally Posted by InJustice

You being a Marvel guy should know better than most people about how these things work. Let's not forget, a LOT of people were very skeptical about how Avengers would work and it took Phase I to build up to an eventual blockbuster. For Superman/Batman film, we know absolutely nothing about how the plot would be structured, if Affleck is fantastic in his role, if Superman is irrelevant because of the inclusion of other DC characters. It leaves way too many questions that no one should even be thinking $1bil until we see what direction WB/DC/Snyder/Goyer is taking. At least Marvel's Phase I answered some of the questions so that when you go into the Avengers, you know what you're expecting.

These aren't unfamiliar characters though. It doesn't matter that it's not Richard Donner's Superman, or Christopher Nolan's Batman. We have seen these two characters in a combined Thirteen films, 3 live action tv series, 5-6 animated series, and about 40 video games. While many people knew, for example, who Captain America was, they didn't know anything about him. That's not the case for Superman and Batman.

Originally Posted by InJustice

Again, we still don't know. A lot of people said MOS is auto-billion dollars (not keeping in mind that no origin story reboot has ever grossed 1bil) and look how silly they look now.

The people who thought Man of Steel was an auto-billion were basing it on nothing but wishful thinking. I'm basing it on taking a movie that grossed $665 Million, and adding an EVEN MORE popular character to the sequel.

Two years ago, there were people arguing The Avengers would only be marginally more successful than Iron Man 2. We saw how those predictions went; Avengers outgrossed Iron Man by nearly 900 Million. I'm arguing that the presence of Batman will add at least $350 to the box office. I don't think that's unreasonable.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by charl_huntress

This is probably for another thread, but quick question if you don't mind me asking. I'm not a movie buff per se. I like what I like, but I spend a lot of time analyzing movies. What about Affleck as a screenwriter makes him an ideal person to look it over? I'm asking more about his qualities. I just keep hearing a lot of people saying that.

You're right this is a discussion for another thread, but I find that Affleck writes great dialogue judging from his work on Good Will Hunting, to Gone Baby Gone and the Town. His dialogue is leagues ahead of what Goyer is capable of in my opinion. I think Goyer's strength's lies in respect for the source material and generating good ideas and cohesive plot lines.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

You're right this is a discussion for another thread, but I find that Affleck writes great dialogue judging from his work on Good Will Hunting, to Gone Baby Gone and the Town. His dialogue is leagues ahead of what Goyer is capable of in my opinion. I think Goyer's strength's lies in respect for the source material and generating good ideas and cohesive plot lines.

Thank you! I'm going to track you down in another thread one day for more clarification.

As for the BO, I do think you're right. I would say 800 million with decent reviews and a higher number with better ones. It should be interesting.

[Wise]

Originally Posted by charl_huntress

Thank you! I'm going to track you down in another thread one day for more clarification.

As for the BO, I do think you're right. I would say 800 million with decent reviews and a higher number with better ones. It should be interesting.

There's also the matter of whether or not Affleck would be allowed to officially give notes or rewrites as that would actually constitute breaking union rules for the WGA.

[charl_huntress]

Originally Posted by Wise

There's also the matter of whether or not Affleck would be allowed to officially give notes or rewrites as that would actually constitute breaking union rules for the WGA.

I'm going to quote this in the Affleck thread because I'm curious.

[Marvin]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

The people who thought Man of Steel was an auto-billion were basing it on nothing but wishful thinking. I'm basing it on taking a movie that grossed $665 Million, and adding an EVEN MORE popular character to the sequel.

Two years ago, there were people arguing The Avengers would only be marginally more successful than Iron Man 2. We saw how those predictions went; Avengers outgrossed Iron Man by nearly 900 Million. I'm arguing that the presence of Batman will add at least $350 to the box office. I don't think that's unreasonable.

A man of steel sequel would no doubt do about as well as an ASM sequel(given it's original pretty much did the same). I see ASM2 flirting with a billion, it's youtube traffic is pretty telling. There is something to be said for laying the seeds in a reboot. From batman begins to james bond it's always the same.

All that being said, this is def similar to the avengers paradigm where cynics or even realists simply didn't account for the power of zeitgeist and predicted numbers begetting the typical marvel ilk of that time (IM2) was their biggest going in..

Pretty sure we're going to see a similar phenomena take place here, with a controller being quality. I also think the producers probably have alot better footing given all the feed back both interms of audience and even the approach of vfx and such.

Lastly, had SR not come out...and MOS was the first since Donner, things might have gone down a bit differently. Same with ASM, Begins even. Reboots are hard to extrapolate from.

I personally find Days of Future past to be the hardest film to predict for.

[KangConquers]

Originally Posted by Marvin

A man of steel sequel would no doubt do about as well as an ASM sequel(given it's original pretty much did the same). I see ASM2 flirting with a billion, it's youtube traffic is pretty telling. There is something to be said for laying the seeds in a reboot. From batman begins to james bond it's always the same.

All that being said, this is def similar to the avengers paradigm where cynics or even realists simply didn't account for the power of zeitgeist and predicted numbers begetting the typical marvel ilk of that time (IM2) was their biggest going in..

Pretty sure we're going to see a similar phenomena take place here, with a controller being quality. I also think the producers probably have alot better footing given all the feed back both interms of audience and even the approach of vfx and such.

Lastly, had SR not come out...and MOS was the first since Donner, things might have gone down a bit differently. Same with ASM, Begins even. Reboots are hard to extrapolate from.

I personally find Days of Future past to be the hardest film to predict for.

Agreed on all counts except for your signature. Marvel would've made Apocalypse a crack addicted actor.

[InJustice]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

Batman is a bigger name than Christopher Nolan.

Many said Amazing Spider-Man was going to bomb because no one wanted a reboot. It didn't perform as well as the previous installment, but still did well. 25% drop domestic, 10% drop foreign.

My thought process is that the whole "Christopher Nolan" whining and ranting will only extend to these shores, and that half of the fans that would have left due to a reboot, will stick around due to curiosity over the two most famous Superheroes of all time finally duking it out, and teaming together. I see this doing roughly $400 M domestic, or about a 10% drop from The Dark Knight Rises.

Foreign box-office is a different story. This is the sort of movie foreign audiences eat up. Giant, bombastic, 3-D, with two icons (one of whom, is the only eponymous film character to have 2 $1 B movies.) I'm saying the absolute floor for this is $600 M foreign.

Calling this a Man of Steel II is incredibly reductive, when a Super Hero more popular than Superman is co-starring. That's why the Dark Knight/ DKR's performances matter to this film.

Batman is a bigger name than Nolan, but if Affleck's character isn't well-received by the audience, then the big name argument doesn't hold up all that well.

Spider-Man is popular anyways, so any minority that said that ASM reboot wasn't going to do well was out of their minds. And if I recall, Andrew Garfield was well-received, so that also helps. Maybe I'm a bit cynical, but I see this in at least 300M domestic, I'd need to see something for me to either increase or decrease my prediction. I'm also unsure that this is going to be the $400mil domestic kind of movie as we've yet to see anything other than the two iconic characters.

How is calling this movie MOSII reductive? Just because Batman is in the film, it doesn't mean that Superman's story arc is irrelevant. I stand by calling this a Man of Steel sequel because of the following comment by Goyer:

“It is our intention that, in success, [Man of Steel] would be the zero issue and from this point onward, possible films could expand into a shared universe. In our world, the Man of Steel world, Zack has gone on record saying that we’re implying there are other superheroes in this world. But I don’t know that they’ve come forward yet. The idea is that Superman is the first one. There might be people helping people, but not in costumes, and that Superman comes forward and announces himself to the world. In him announcing himself, he’s the one that changes things.”

Until there is further notice from Warner Bros. that this is not a MOS movie, then I'll change my mind, but for now, this is definitely a Man of Steel sequel. Batman being there doesn't change anything.

Originally Posted by KangConquers

These aren't unfamiliar characters though. It doesn't matter that it's not Richard Donner's Superman, or Christopher Nolan's Batman. We have seen these two characters in a combined Thirteen films, 3 live action tv series, 5-6 animated series, and about 40 video games. While many people knew, for example, who Captain America was, they didn't know anything about him. That's not the case for Superman and Batman.

That wasn't the point. It's one thing to have unfamiliar characters, it's another thing entirely to have audiences be charmed by how the character is written as well as how the character is portrayed. As I've said, if the character + actor isn't well received, then it's not going to work out all that well (Brandon Routh is a good example).

Originally Posted by KangConquers

The people who thought Man of Steel was an auto-billion were basing it on nothing but wishful thinking. I'm basing it on taking a movie that grossed $665 Million, and adding an EVEN MORE popular character to the sequel.

Two years ago, there were people arguing The Avengers would only be marginally more successful than Iron Man 2. We saw how those predictions went; Avengers outgrossed Iron Man by nearly 900 Million. I'm arguing that the presence of Batman will add at least $350 to the box office. I don't think that's unreasonable.

The thing is, out of the $$ that Man of Steel made, you've got to have some feeling that some will probably give up because it wasn't their Superman. So that lowers the earning potential for the next film, or at the very least, makes it difficult for the sequel to win them over. And as I've said, until people get to know Affleck's Batman, then we won't know the true potential of this film.

[MessiahDecoy123]

Take the average of an MOS sequel and a Batman reboot.

That's what BvS will make. It's not a Justice League movie.