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View Poll Results: What is the bar of success for Superman/ Batman at the WW box office? | |||
$600- 699 M (The level at which a $200 M film profits) |
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2 | 2.41% |
$700-799 M |
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6 | 7.23% |
$800-899 M |
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13 | 15.66% |
$900-999 M |
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8 | 9.64% |
Over $1 Billion |
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28 | 33.73% |
Bigger Than The Dark Knight Rises (Highest grossing DC film) |
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12 | 14.46% |
Bigger Than The Avengers (Biggest Superhero movie ever) |
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13 | 15.66% |
Bigger Than Titanic (#2 film ever) |
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1 | 1.20% |
Bigger Than Avatar (#1 film ever) |
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0 | 0% |
Voters: 83. You may not vote on this poll |
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#101 | |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Toronto
Posts: 19,612
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Surely you can see the difference between a high profile sequel and a high profile cross over(very rare) event. For example, as modest as Spidey and Wolverine box office are these days. If next year saw a crossover between the two...it wouldn't yield an 'average of such and such/such and such sequel'. It would be a high profile crossover between two of the biggest characters in comics/cinema today. In short, I don't think you are looking at it right. If the Xmen showed up in the Hobbit...cross over event. That being said there is no accounting for a wolverine reboot in that scenario, and this is def a new batman. All I can say is Bale did little to own his role as Jackman has(unlike bat's there has only ever been Hugh). Moreover Ben seems like a more bankable box office persona than Bale imo.
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"I care because filmmakers now make films under crippling security because of parasitic gossip. makes movies worse" -James Mangold. Last edited by Marvin; 12-15-2013 at 11:19 PM. |
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#102 | |
Purple Kang, Purple Kang
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 7,112
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#103 |
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Join Date: May 2006
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I guess I don't follow movie news enough, but I have never thought of Affleck as a bankable star. I'm not sure I'm understanding the meaning of that since for me he doesn't seem to have the same sort of star power as say...Brad Pitt.
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#104 |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Toronto
Posts: 19,612
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Whatever you think of Ben as a leading man and how popular he is or isn't. I'm talking relative to Bale. The indie guy with no films outside batman I can think of being all that big.
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"I care because filmmakers now make films under crippling security because of parasitic gossip. makes movies worse" -James Mangold. |
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#105 |
Banned User
Join Date: May 2006
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I guess I see what you mean.
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#106 |
(A Metal Gear reference)
Join Date: Sep 2012
Posts: 5,795
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This movie definitely has more buzz/awareness (be it good or bad) 2 years prior to release than TDK had.
Whether it generates buzz closer to release (due to positive WOM or trailers, ala Ledger's Joker performance) is a different matter. |
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#107 |
Purple Kang, Purple Kang
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 7,112
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Movies have broken $1 Billion on the past achievements of a franchise...look at the first Hobbit.
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#108 | |
Do u Bleed? Do ya Punk?
Join Date: Oct 2013
Posts: 3,448
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Many....many people thought MOS would make 1 billion WW....easily nonetheless...for a reboot?? Many...many....MANY people seem to have been smoking something bad. ![]() |
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#109 |
Side-Kick
Join Date: May 2013
Posts: 347
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Its snyder's trailers. Buzz and hype will be at a level it needs to be if not higher.
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#110 | |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 12,986
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Dno |
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#111 | |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Jan 2011
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This film, like MOS, is a tent-pole film intended to be a backbone of Warner's future line-up. I imagine that if it doesn't make at least $800 million, that plans for a Justice League film could change. I know this isn't a completely apt comparison, but look at Jack Reacher. Even with it being a Tom Cruise, receiving generally good reviews and only costing $60 million, Paramount was very reticent about greenlighting a sequel, and didn't do it until it made over $200 mil, which is over 3x its cost. A studio always has expectations, and if they aren't met, even if it's brand name, a sequel is by no means guaranteed. |
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#112 |
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Join Date: Jun 2013
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What I have heard most money guys say is that a film should make double of the total of its production and marketing budget to break even.
So according to that, MOS with a production budget of 225 million and marketing budget of 150 million dollars would basically need to make 750 million WW to break even. This is theatrically. Films of course break even and turn in a profit on home rentals and broadcast deals too. The reason for above is because when you hear 200 million dollar opening weekend, only about 50% of it is going to the studio. Less in foreign countries. |
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#113 | |
Armored Avenger!
Join Date: May 2002
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However Affleck is definitely the biggest draw of this film for better or worse.
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#114 |
Pimp a Butterfly
Join Date: May 2012
Location: Black Hogwarts
Posts: 24,835
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2015 will be stacked!
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#115 |
Watchtower Janitor
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 5,976
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Also let's not forget what will be the biggest hit of the summer.
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#116 | |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Mar 2005
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#117 | |
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#118 |
Not a Side-Kick
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 11,228
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Honestly, its best to ignore the marketing budget when guestimating profitability. There is too much funny money accounting in the marketing budget, such that the actual number of real dollars is greatly exaggerated. Whereas production budget is production budget, since you actually do have to pay salaries and supply costs and such.
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#119 | |
Do u Bleed? Do ya Punk?
Join Date: Oct 2013
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I hear what you are saying. Marketing is marketing and like you said it would seem funny money is accounted for when it comes to that aspect. Perhaps it should not be accounted for when it comes to calculating profitability of a film. The production budget is where the end profit margin should be equated to. That is why maintaining production budget discipline is so important when it comes to these tentpole franchise films. Especially the ones that are not established franchises. See John Carter and The Lone Ranger etc... |
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#120 |
Side-Kick
Join Date: May 2013
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Well you can bet that the trailers are going to be nuts, and this movie already has damn near everyone's attention. So far I am pretty sure there is nothing the weekend after and I don't think a studio is going to throw something in that slot either.
I don't think Terminator is going to do numbers, could be wrong but I don't think it will be big competition in its 3rd week. Minions has already been pushed back once, maybe they change it again, if not I can see that taking some away but not too much. MOS had to go against The Purge (kinda had a lot of buzz) This is the End, WWZ, Monsters U, The Heat, White House Down, Despicable me 2, and The Lone Ranger in its first 3 weeks. As of now it looks like this will have Minions (I expect that to make 700 mil), then 2 weeks by itself, then Antman (450mil), Assassins Creed and Bourne (I dont think Assassins Creed and Bourne are going to be big) and Smurfs 3 (350mil). That doesn't look too bad to me even in a packed year. So I could see it getting that billion mark especially with even slightly better critic reviews. But I think for it to be a "success" just 800 Mil, anything more than that is gravy. WB might be able to make their money back from simply selling merchandise for this movie leading up to it. |
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#121 | |
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#122 |
Hurting Really REALLY BAD
Join Date: Apr 2012
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WB marketed the **** out of MOS and they'll no doubt up the ante with this next film. However, it's way too early to say. If I had to put a say in it:
$990 Million if it sucks $1.1-1.2 Billion if it gets a MOS like or slightly better critical reception $1.5 Billion if it gets very positive reviews/critical acclaim. Again, just speculation on my part.
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#123 |
Side-Kick
Join Date: Mar 2005
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$350 million is actually a lot for a production budget, but since Batman is in this picture, I believe they could easily get away with spending that much and still making a profit.
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#124 | |
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OW: 90% studio 2nd W: 80% 3rd W: 70% 4th W: 55% and so on, and so forth. Some films actually open with 100% of the gross to the studio. A famous example is Star Wars- Episode II: Attack of the Clones. But on average, the total gross is only usually just over half to the studio. |
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#125 |
Banned User
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Hmmm....it will be interesting to find what the budget actually is. That seems high to me. If they made Avatar for less than that then I would expect WB to put the kibosh down anything too extravagant.
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