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View Poll Results: How do you think Captain America: The Winter Soldier will do? | |||
$1.5 billion |
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3 | 1.63% |
$1 billion |
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8 | 4.35% |
$900 million |
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11 | 5.98% |
$800 million |
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20 | 10.87% |
$700 million |
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45 | 24.46% |
$600 million |
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53 | 28.80% |
$500 million |
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38 | 20.65% |
$400 million |
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4 | 2.17% |
$300 million |
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2 | 1.09% |
$200 million |
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0 | 0% |
Voters: 184. You may not vote on this poll |
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#226 |
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I don't know what lame YA novel based films you are talking about but 120mil is not an easy number to hit for any film.
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#227 |
Abs Without Fear
Join Date: Mar 2010
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To be fair, I think the only YA novel-based films that have done over 100mil on OW are the Harry Potter movies, Hunger Games movies and Twilight. While… less said about Twilight the better, Harry Potter and Hunger Games/Catching Fire have huge fanbases plus the benefit of legitimately amazing reviews for the product that helped drive OW grosses up for those movies. The recent spate of YA films based on "popular" series (Mortal Instruments, Vampire Academy, Percy Jackson, Cirque duFreak, The Host…) have basically bombed and bombed hard at the box office.
Ideally, I'd absolutely love for Cap to join their ranks but I do think it would have to be a perfect storm of great buzz following the fan screenings/overseas premieres and positive reviews to get a huge OW and to ensure second week legs are strong, because CBMs drop hard typically that second week.
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"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn [and Ryan Coogler]… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled." --Chewy
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#228 |
Chairman of the Bored
Join Date: Jan 2008
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Yeah basically I was referencing Hunger Games and the T-word
It still amazes me how much money those movies rake in, when all the twi-films were crap, and the first Hunger Games I thought was decidedly average. I would really just like to see Cap and other Marvel characters besides Iron Man draw in the same size crowds and hopefully, if this movie is as awesome as it looks, word of mouth will allow that to happen
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#229 |
Captain America Fan
Join Date: Feb 2014
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How much did IM3 make on its OW?
Whatever it is, CA:TWS OW will be less than that. Marvel is hugely popular, now more than ever, but their movies are so spread out across multiple plots, characters, and events that not everyone goes to see every single one.
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"Not without you partner, the world needs Bucky too." -Cap to Bucky |
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#230 | |
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#231 |
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If the movie is great, I think 650 WW is a reasonably conservative figure.
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Originally Posted by KangConquers At the risk of being totally offensive...there's a quote from Ghandi about Christianity that can be reappropriated for this. "I like your Christopher Nolan, but I do not like your Nolanites." |
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#232 | |
Chairman of the Bored
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But TWS looks amazing so if it has the same upwards trajectory Catching Fire did, I'm cool with that
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#233 | ||
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Last edited by Minxie; 03-05-2014 at 04:18 PM. |
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#234 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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Well, I strongly disliked those Batman movies. The actors were cool, but I disliked the movies. I just genuinely dislike Batman I guess. Also, you guys should know that I created a video highlighting Cap's action sequences in The Avengers and the video wasn't even 5 minutes. That's from memory though, cause Youtube forced me to take it down. I hope with his newfound abilities and fighting in TWS he will have more action time.
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"Not without you partner, the world needs Bucky too." -Cap to Bucky |
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#235 |
Abs Without Fear
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I know HSX.com isn't the end-all, be-all of box office prognostication, but I like that CA:TWS' buzz is moving upwards, nearing $230million domestic, when it had been stuck at $225 or $226 for weeks.
Now just keep releasing more and more of that sweet sweet footage and get some amazing reviews and… *knocks ball out of the park*
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"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn [and Ryan Coogler]… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled." --Chewy
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#236 |
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Am I imagining things or are all the superhero movies front loaded early in the summer with they exception of GOTG? I think they are going to beat each other up.
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#237 |
Abs Without Fear
Join Date: Mar 2010
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Yeah. I'm hoping the early placement of Cap will help rather than hurt it, because usually the first superhero movie of the year ends up making a ton of bank. Then again, those end up opening in May, so…
May has Spidey, X-Men, and Godzilla. Godzilla's getting a ton of great buzz, so May is crazy crowded. I have no idea whether that will have any affect on those movie's legs.
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"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn [and Ryan Coogler]… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled." --Chewy
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#238 | |
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#239 |
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I think, if anything, the LEGO Movie, the first Hunger Games movie, and if Cap breaks records in the first part of April, then it'll really show the studios that any season can be blockbuster season, and we'll start seeing release dates spread out more and more throughout the year, so May's not just considered prime real estate.
I really do feel that if F&F can break $80mil. and over in April, then Cap's got a great shot. Marvel and Disney haven't missed a beat with their marketing, and everything's on an upswing with TWS. Really, the only missing piece is now advance reviews and the fan screenings and I think once those are out we'll get a better idea of where this falls review-wise, which could get it some sexy legs.
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"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn [and Ryan Coogler]… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled." --Chewy
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#240 |
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Join Date: Feb 2014
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I think CA:TWS will do good since it doesn't have much to contend with in April. It's crazy how Marvel has 4 movies coming out this year.
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"Not without you partner, the world needs Bucky too." -Cap to Bucky |
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#241 | |
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I don't decide which film I like based on critics but the reviews are going to be really interesting to watch. Marvel films have all gotten decent reviews but each of the sequels have gotten worse reviews than the original. Iron Man -93% on RT Iron Man 2-73% (the 3rd did score better than the 2nd). Thor-77% on RT Thor: The Dark World-65% on RT Captain America-79% on RT The Winter Soldier-??? I'll be curious to see if Winter Soldier will continue that trend or will it be the best reviewed Marvel film behind Iron Man. I'm getting good vibes from it on that front. I think good reviews will only help it at the box office. |
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#242 |
Abs Without Fear
Join Date: Mar 2010
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I'm bringing this article Xeno linked to in the news and spec thread, as it's pretty relevant to reviews/BO prognostication--
https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=h...df&chrome=true It's a pretty interesting read, re. the reliance on social media metrics and reader reviews on sites like RT, that reader reviews and peer reactions might have a bigger impact on the GA and B.O. returns than previously thought. Certainly not discounting the influence of critics, especially the top critics and the well-regarded blog/magazine/website critics whose livelihoods are based on purportedly objective analysis into the quality of the films they watch, but the research is noteworthy that, in recent years, the critical response to films may not have as big an impact on viewers than before. However, I guess it could also be said that critical reviews impact social media and viewer opinions, even subconsciously. When a movie garners amazing critical attention, that leads to more and more buzz about it across all media networks. See, The LEGO Movie, Catching Fire, Frozen, etc…. I mean, you still see critic's choice trailers for all these movies. So, maybe all of it builds on each other. *hope that makes sense, in light of I've only had one cup of coffee so far this morning and might not be fully awake to properly comment*
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"Joss Whedon, Shane Black, Edgar Wright, James Gunn [and Ryan Coogler]… For as much flack as people give Marvel that's a pretty freaking great group of filmmakers. Kind of feel spoiled." --Chewy
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#243 |
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Join Date: Oct 2012
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IM3 did more than 1 billion . TWS sure won't reach that but I guess it will benefit of the "Avengers Factor"
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#244 | |
Captain America Fan
Join Date: Feb 2014
Posts: 909
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Hopefully CA:TWS will be very successful. I know it's not going to surpass Avengers of Iron Man 3, but I really hope it gets at least 600 million; I see it getting 500 million, like most, but I wish it could get enough for people to start turning an eye to it.
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"Not without you partner, the world needs Bucky too." -Cap to Bucky |
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#245 | |
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#246 |
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To a certain degree I think The Dark World's performance has brought most people back down to earth. 500 million would be more than "okay" of course. Personally I'm not predicting under 550mil but that doesn't mean that 500mil would even be a slight disappointment to me. Under 500mil would be weird.
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#247 | |
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#248 | |
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#249 |
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Nevermind, ran into some problems.
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"Not without you partner, the world needs Bucky too." -Cap to Bucky Last edited by TJByrum; 03-08-2014 at 12:07 PM. |
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#250 | |
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I don't think this will perform that big in the U.S. like more than $250 million, but overseas, I think it should perform greatly and to me, this feels like the 1st big live-action blockbuster of the year.
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X - W O M E N Dazzler • Jubilee • Polaris • Shadowcat • White Queen |
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