Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I don't know what lame YA novel based films you are talking about but 120mil is not an easy number to hit for any film.

[Suzanne78]

To be fair, I think the only YA novel-based films that have done over 100mil on OW are the Harry Potter movies, Hunger Games movies and Twilight. While… less said about Twilight the better, Harry Potter and Hunger Games/Catching Fire have huge fanbases plus the benefit of legitimately amazing reviews for the product that helped drive OW grosses up for those movies. The recent spate of YA films based on "popular" series (Mortal Instruments, Vampire Academy, Percy Jackson, Cirque duFreak, The Host…) have basically bombed and bombed hard at the box office.

Ideally, I'd absolutely love for Cap to join their ranks but I do think it would have to be a perfect storm of great buzz following the fan screenings/overseas premieres and positive reviews to get a huge OW and to ensure second week legs are strong, because CBMs drop hard typically that second week.

[BoredGuy]

Yeah basically I was referencing Hunger Games and the T-word
It still amazes me how much money those movies rake in, when all the twi-films were crap, and the first Hunger Games I thought was decidedly average.

I would really just like to see Cap and other Marvel characters besides Iron Man draw in the same size crowds
and hopefully, if this movie is as awesome as it looks, word of mouth will allow that to happen

[TJByrum]

How much did IM3 make on its OW?

Whatever it is, CA:TWS OW will be less than that.

Marvel is hugely popular, now more than ever, but their movies are so spread out across multiple plots, characters, and events that not everyone goes to see every single one.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by BoredGuy

Yeah basically I was referencing Hunger Games and the T-word
It still amazes me how much money those movies rake in, when all the twi-films were crap, and the first Hunger Games I thought was decidedly average.

I would really just like to see Cap and other Marvel characters besides Iron Man draw in the same size crowds
and hopefully, if this movie is as awesome as it looks, word of mouth will allow that to happen

And the first Hunger Games film still had better reviews than Captain America. I liked Captain America but I've seen a lot of people say it's average as well.

[Joeyjojo72]

If the movie is great, I think 650 WW is a reasonably conservative figure.

[BoredGuy]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

And the first Hunger Games film still had better reviews than Captain America. I liked Captain America but I've seen a lot of people say it's average as well.

Oh it was, unfortunately
But TWS looks amazing
so if it has the same upwards trajectory Catching Fire did, I'm cool with that

[Minxie]

Originally Posted by BoredGuy

Oh it was, unfortunately
But TWS looks amazing
so if it has the same upwards trajectory Catching Fire did, I'm cool with that

I kinda think the Cap films are following the same trajectory as Batman Begins and TDK, also. I feel like Batman Begins was received similar to CA:TFA, in that while it didn't make a big splash it still did respectfully well for itself. And right now there's a similar buzz and anticipation building up to CA:TWS that TDK had. It might not have as huge an opening weekend since it's April and the kids are still in school and all that, but it's going to have long legs from word of mouth and the lack of competition.

[TJByrum]

Originally Posted by Minxie

I kinda think the Cap films are following the same trajectory as Batman Begins and TDK, also. I feel like Batman Begins was received similar to CA:TFA, in that while it didn't make a big splash it still did respectfully well for itself. And right now there's a similar buzz and anticipation building up to CA:TWS that TDK had. It might not have as huge an opening weekend since it's April and the kids are still in school and all that, but it's going to have long legs from word of mouth and the lack of competition.

Hmm.... I recall TeeKay saying CA:TWS is TDK of Marvel films. Hope he's...

Well, I strongly disliked those Batman movies. The actors were cool, but I disliked the movies. I just genuinely dislike Batman I guess.

Also, you guys should know that I created a video highlighting Cap's action sequences in The Avengers and the video wasn't even 5 minutes. That's from memory though, cause Youtube forced me to take it down. I hope with his newfound abilities and fighting in TWS he will have more action time.

[Suzanne78]

I know HSX.com isn't the end-all, be-all of box office prognostication, but I like that CA:TWS' buzz is moving upwards, nearing $230million domestic, when it had been stuck at $225 or $226 for weeks.

Now just keep releasing more and more of that sweet sweet footage and get some amazing reviews and… *knocks ball out of the park*

[insideguy]

Am I imagining things or are all the superhero movies front loaded early in the summer with they exception of GOTG? I think they are going to beat each other up.

[Suzanne78]

Yeah. I'm hoping the early placement of Cap will help rather than hurt it, because usually the first superhero movie of the year ends up making a ton of bank. Then again, those end up opening in May, so…

May has Spidey, X-Men, and Godzilla. Godzilla's getting a ton of great buzz, so May is crazy crowded. I have no idea whether that will have any affect on those movie's legs.

[insideguy]

Originally Posted by Suzanne78

Yeah. I'm hoping the early placement of Cap will help rather than hurt it, because usually the first superhero movie of the year ends up making a ton of bank. Then again, those end up opening in May, so…

May has Spidey, X-Men, and Godzilla. Godzilla's getting a ton of great buzz, so May is crazy crowded. I have no idea whether that will have any affect on those movie's legs.

Just by looking at some of these release dates I think X men is going to come out the worst. That is in a rough patch. Spidey is kind of in the middle there. I dont know by the time x-men rolls around people are going to be superheroed out. Cap has some time to make some bucks. But sheesh it looks like the others have a week or two and thats it.

[Suzanne78]

I think, if anything, the LEGO Movie, the first Hunger Games movie, and if Cap breaks records in the first part of April, then it'll really show the studios that any season can be blockbuster season, and we'll start seeing release dates spread out more and more throughout the year, so May's not just considered prime real estate.

I really do feel that if F&F can break $80mil. and over in April, then Cap's got a great shot. Marvel and Disney haven't missed a beat with their marketing, and everything's on an upswing with TWS. Really, the only missing piece is now advance reviews and the fan screenings and I think once those are out we'll get a better idea of where this falls review-wise, which could get it some sexy legs.

[TJByrum]

I think CA:TWS will do good since it doesn't have much to contend with in April. It's crazy how Marvel has 4 movies coming out this year.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by Suzanne78

I think, if anything, the LEGO Movie, the first Hunger Games movie, and if Cap breaks records in the first part of April, then it'll really show the studios that any season can be blockbuster season, and we'll start seeing release dates spread out more and more throughout the year, so May's not just considered prime real estate.

I really do feel that if F&F can break $80mil. and over in April, then Cap's got a great shot. Marvel and Disney haven't missed a beat with their marketing, and everything's on an upswing with TWS. Really, the only missing piece is now advance reviews and the fan screenings and I think once those are out we'll get a better idea of where this falls review-wise, which could get it some sexy legs.

Yeah I don't think the release date is going to be too much of an issue.

I don't decide which film I like based on critics but the reviews are going to be really interesting to watch. Marvel films have all gotten decent reviews but each of the sequels have gotten worse reviews than the original.

Iron Man -93% on RT
Iron Man 2-73% (the 3rd did score better than the 2nd).
Thor-77% on RT
Thor: The Dark World-65% on RT
Captain America-79% on RT
The Winter Soldier-???

I'll be curious to see if Winter Soldier will continue that trend or will it be the best reviewed Marvel film behind Iron Man. I'm getting good vibes from it on that front. I think good reviews will only help it at the box office.

[Suzanne78]

I'm bringing this article Xeno linked to in the news and spec thread, as it's pretty relevant to reviews/BO prognostication--

https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=h...df&chrome=true

It's a pretty interesting read, re. the reliance on social media metrics and reader reviews on sites like RT, that reader reviews and peer reactions might have a bigger impact on the GA and B.O. returns than previously thought.

Certainly not discounting the influence of critics, especially the top critics and the well-regarded blog/magazine/website critics whose livelihoods are based on purportedly objective analysis into the quality of the films they watch, but the research is noteworthy that, in recent years, the critical response to films may not have as big an impact on viewers than before.

However, I guess it could also be said that critical reviews impact social media and viewer opinions, even subconsciously. When a movie garners amazing critical attention, that leads to more and more buzz about it across all media networks. See, The LEGO Movie, Catching Fire, Frozen, etc…. I mean, you still see critic's choice trailers for all these movies. So, maybe all of it builds on each other.

*hope that makes sense, in light of I've only had one cup of coffee so far this morning and might not be fully awake to properly comment*

[Lightsplasher]

Originally Posted by TJByrum

How much did IM3 make on its OW?

Whatever it is, CA:TWS OW will be less than that.

Marvel is hugely popular, now more than ever, but their movies are so spread out across multiple plots, characters, and events that not everyone goes to see every single one.

IM3 did more than 1 billion . TWS sure won't reach that but I guess it will benefit of the "Avengers Factor"

[TJByrum]

Originally Posted by Lightsplasher

IM3 did more than 1 billion . TWS sure won't reach that but I guess it will benefit of the "Avengers Factor"

1 billion!? In an OW? That's amazing!

Hopefully CA:TWS will be very successful. I know it's not going to surpass Avengers of Iron Man 3, but I really hope it gets at least 600 million; I see it getting 500 million, like most, but I wish it could get enough for people to start turning an eye to it.

[insideguy]

Originally Posted by TJByrum

1 billion!? In an OW? That's amazing!

Hopefully CA:TWS will be very successful. I know it's not going to surpass Avengers of Iron Man 3, but I really hope it gets at least 600 million; I see it getting 500 million, like most, but I wish it could get enough for people to start turning an eye to it.

People are funny now a days though. Say it "only" makes 500 million. That is still a huge massive hit. I dont see how this doesnt make alot more than the first one. It has everything going for it. Its a sequel, He is more well known, Its coming out at a good time, and has alot of avenger stuff with shield,black widow, nick fury ect. Is it going to be a Dark Knight? No but how many films are Dark Knights? One thing I have noticed is I think peoples expectations for this at the box office are alot more realistic than the Thor predictions were.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

To a certain degree I think The Dark World's performance has brought most people back down to earth. 500 million would be more than "okay" of course. Personally I'm not predicting under 550mil but that doesn't mean that 500mil would even be a slight disappointment to me. Under 500mil would be weird.

[Lightsplasher]

Originally Posted by TJByrum

1 billion!? In an OW? That's amazing!

Hopefully CA:TWS will be very successful. I know it's not going to surpass Avengers of Iron Man 3, but I really hope it gets at least 600 million; I see it getting 500 million, like most, but I wish it could get enough for people to start turning an eye to it.

Oh ,my ! I didn't see you were talking about the Opening week . It did 174 million on the first week , just after The Avengers . TFA did 65 millions on OW , I'll be fine if it makes the double personally . TDW easily made 641 millions worldwide and it didn't even had as much promo as TWS gets , so yeah , it probably will make around 600-700 millions

[insideguy]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

To a certain degree I think The Dark World's performance has brought most people back down to earth. 500 million would be more than "okay" of course. Personally I'm not predicting under 550mil but that doesn't mean that 500mil would even be a slight disappointment to me. Under 500mil would be weird.

I dont see how it finishes under 500 million. Its going to get 180 to 220 in the states( i think) Now I know he isnt huge overseas however with the avenger tie in stuff which is huge, I think the overseas box office is going to be much better than expected. Plus overseas box office grows daily. Its almost impossible to predict.

[TJByrum]

Nevermind, ran into some problems.

[psylockolussus]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

To a certain degree I think The Dark World's performance has brought most people back down to earth. 500 million would be more than "okay" of course. Personally I'm not predicting under 550mil but that doesn't mean that 500mil would even be a slight disappointment to me. Under 500mil would be weird.

Under $550 million or $600 million is not bad at all. FastFive is the only movie I know that was released in April to get more than $500 million worldwide.

I don't think this will perform that big in the U.S. like more than $250 million, but overseas, I think it should perform greatly and to me, this feels like the 1st big live-action blockbuster of the year.