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Old 03-21-2014, 10:33 PM   #126
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Not really. $130 M budget, $289 M gross...it wasn't as big as the first one, but it did okay.
Not true. The movie cost more to make and showed a diminished return. That is a major disappointment. The 1st FF film broke 300 on a 100 mil budget. That's fairly good for a movie that cost 100mil. But, when you invest more money into a property, you expect more money. Not a fairly drastic drop.

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Old 03-22-2014, 06:19 AM   #127
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Not true. The movie cost more to make and showed a diminished return. That is a major disappointment. The 1st FF film broke 300 on a 100 mil budget. That's fairly good for a movie that cost 100mil. But, when you invest more money into a property, you expect more money. Not a fairly drastic drop.
And I think this is related to the 'fan effect' which has been oft debated around here. The reason the first one did as well as it did (even though it was universally panned by the critics) was there were a lot of FF fans out there who wanted to see an FF film.

But by the second film, the studio had sucked some of that value away with the weak first effort.

Under most circumstances, a film creates fans with the first film and brings those fans back in force for the second film. If you just looked at the numbers without understanding the history, you'd be curious about why a bigger, better sequel to a successful film would do so poorly, but it makes perfect sense when you realize many people who paid for the first film were fans who had been turned off, rather than excited, by the first film.

And now the fan enthusiasm is at an all-time low. The fans won't just show up for this next film the way they did 10 years ago. Even if the reboot is a much better film than the previous films, there's a good chance its box office numbers will be lower.

Some people may feel that we are overly negative, but we are the reality Fox needs to deal with and they have a lot to prove with this next film to get our business. We won't hand over our money as freely as we did in 2005.

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Old 03-22-2014, 10:22 PM   #128
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

*cough* FF2 was in no way "bigger" or "better". Among other things, the writing dropped below the level of even the first one.

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Old 07-01-2014, 04:46 AM   #129
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Right now I think:
Opening weekend - $25 to $30 million
Domestic - $90 million to $95 million
Worldwide - $270 million to $350 million

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Old 07-01-2014, 12:56 PM   #130
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Having the film be found footage, or at least found footagy could have a big impact on the box office. As far as I'm aware the most successful found footage film ever is Blaire Witch Project, and it only made $248 million. If you look at a film like District 9 which had a found footagy feel to it the worldwide box office was only $210 million. Found footage isn't popular by studios because they get massive box office numbers, they are popular because they are cheap to make so its easy for the studios to get back the money invested in the production.

And thats before we consider the bad memory many people have from the previous Fantastic Four films. Even $270 to $350 million could be hard, the film is really going to have to show something impressive in the next 12 months if they want better at the box office.

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Old 07-01-2014, 02:00 PM   #131
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

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Right now I think:
Opening weekend - $25 to $30 million
Domestic - $90 million to $95 million
Worldwide - $270 million to $350 million
I agree with the opening weekend but no way it stays in theaters with that opening for that long. If it opens to that amount, I'd say it would make around $65-70M DOM and WW would be around $225M. I know there are some people pumped to see this thing but next summer is packed with good movies(unlike this summer)and a couple of Marvel studio movies coming out, this thing is not going to do well at all. Not to mention Disney is going to do something to make sure this thing doesn't do well, if it puts a movie very close to it.................this ain't over by a long shot. Disney getting Trank to do Star Wars is only the first move of many of a game of Chess with Fox. The Checkmate will be interesting.

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Old 07-01-2014, 03:27 PM   #132
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I think this film tops out at $250 worldwide

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Old 07-01-2014, 05:09 PM   #133
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I agree with the opening weekend but no way it stays in theaters with that opening for that long. If it opens to that amount, I'd say it would make around $65-70M DOM and WW would be around $225M. I know there are some people pumped to see this thing but next summer is packed with good movies(unlike this summer)and a couple of Marvel studio movies coming out, this thing is not going to do well at all. Not to mention Disney is going to do something to make sure this thing doesn't do well, if it puts a movie very close to it.................this ain't over by a long shot. Disney getting Trank to do Star Wars is only the first move of many of a game of Chess with Fox. The Checkmate will be interesting.
The next Pixar film is releasing the exact same day as this film. It's also likely they won't promote FF with merchandise, similar to Days of Future Past.

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Old 07-01-2014, 05:15 PM   #134
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The next Pixar film is releasing the exact same day as this film. It's also likely they won't promote FF with merchandise, similar to Days of Future Past.
Really?!? You have to ask yourself, what is Fox thinking? They are ruining any credibility they have when it comes to superhero movies just to get this crap out. They are better off just selling it back to Disney/Marvel for like $300M. It's crazy and box office suicide what they are doing.

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Old 07-01-2014, 06:03 PM   #135
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No way in hell this movie makes more then TASM 2 Domestically at least. International is always questionable. But Domestically the audience will see the better movies out at the time

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Old 07-01-2014, 08:39 PM   #136
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

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And I think this is related to the 'fan effect' which has been oft debated around here. The reason the first one did as well as it did (even though it was universally panned by the critics) was there were a lot of FF fans out there who wanted to see an FF film.

But by the second film, the studio had sucked some of that value away with the weak first effort.

Under most circumstances, a film creates fans with the first film and brings those fans back in force for the second film. If you just looked at the numbers without understanding the history, you'd be curious about why a bigger, better sequel to a successful film would do so poorly, but it makes perfect sense when you realize many people who paid for the first film were fans who had been turned off, rather than excited, by the first film.

And now the fan enthusiasm is at an all-time low. The fans won't just show up for this next film the way they did 10 years ago. Even if the reboot is a much better film than the previous films, there's a good chance its box office numbers will be lower.

Some people may feel that we are overly negative, but we are the reality Fox needs to deal with and they have a lot to prove with this next film to get our business. We won't hand over our money as freely as we did in 2005.
Playing Devil's Advocate here....I think that was the thinking on "Batman Begins" and its initial numbers were far below expectation...but it was good, and the word of mouth brought it back up...even after a very DISMAL at best...."Batman and Robin" what???? 8 years before?

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Old 07-01-2014, 09:04 PM   #137
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Playing Devil's Advocate here....I think that was the thinking on "Batman Begins" and its initial numbers were far below expectation...but it was good, and the word of mouth brought it back up...even after a very DISMAL at best...."Batman and Robin" what???? 8 years before?
There will still be much better movies out 2 see then when this piece of **** is out & the week after

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Old 07-01-2014, 09:27 PM   #138
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Curiosity will get the best of most fans opening weekend then will subsequently drop like a rock tied to a bolder falling off a cliff into a hollow pit.

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Old 07-01-2014, 09:42 PM   #139
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Curiosity will get the best of most fans opening weekend then will subsequently drop like a rock tied to a bolder falling off a cliff into a hollow pit.
The second week drop is gonna be epic for this movie. But fox could always pull a Sony. Release it two weeks or more Internationally. Then let fate do the rest

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Old 07-01-2014, 10:26 PM   #140
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

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The second week drop is gonna be epic for this movie. But fox could always pull a Sony. Release it two weeks or more Internationally. Then let fate do the rest
Won't get that far. Believe me, Disney is going to make sure this thing bombs even if it has to sabotage itself. They are already releasing one movie the same day, I wouldn't put it past Disney to do something sneaky the next weekend.

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Old 07-01-2014, 10:47 PM   #141
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The next Pixar film is releasing the exact same day as this film.


I did not know that.

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Old 07-01-2014, 11:14 PM   #142
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Won't get that far. Believe me, Disney is going to make sure this thing bombs even if it has to sabotage itself. They are already releasing one movie the same day, I wouldn't put it past Disney to do something sneaky the next weekend.
I do wonder if moving The Avengers 2 to June 19th is on the table for them


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Old 07-02-2014, 12:01 AM   #143
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Ideally, this will make 0 dollars.


But performing like the other 2 did would be just as bad by today's standards.

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Old 07-02-2014, 07:36 AM   #144
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Won't get that far. Believe me, Disney is going to make sure this thing bombs even if it has to sabotage itself. They are already releasing one movie the same day, I wouldn't put it past Disney to do something sneaky the next weekend.

The 1st Incredibles is being converted to 3D (as well as 'Ratatouille') ... Could not think of a better time to put that one out there. Maybe offer a coupon discount for the re-release for those seeing 'Inside Out' or something (so as not to hinder that one, and offer an incentive for both).

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Old 07-02-2014, 07:40 AM   #145
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I did not know that.

Yup. Considering Pixar average $60mil plus on opening weekends it's hard to see this effort making a huge impression that weekend.

If a damned good movie like 'Edge of Tomorrow' can bomb (that one truly dumbfounds me), this one definitely could.

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Old 07-02-2014, 07:53 AM   #146
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Won't get that far. Believe me, Disney is going to make sure this thing bombs even if it has to sabotage itself. They are already releasing one movie the same day, I wouldn't put it past Disney to do something sneaky the next weekend.
One large "stick" that Marvel has is the Netflix series. These projects are not reliant on ratings or box office revenues - Marvel has already cashed the check from Netflix for the right to stream the five initial series. The high quality of the initial casting announcements should have hardcore Marvel fans glued to their sets all weekend when the series is released.

Would it surprise me if 13 episodes of Daredevil become available for binge viewing on June 19, 2015? No, it would not.

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Old 07-02-2014, 08:46 PM   #147
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One large "stick" that Marvel has is the Netflix series. These projects are not reliant on ratings or box office revenues - Marvel has already cashed the check from Netflix for the right to stream the five initial series. The high quality of the initial casting announcements should have hardcore Marvel fans glued to their sets all weekend when the series is released.

Would it surprise me if 13 episodes of Daredevil become available for binge viewing on June 19, 2015? No, it would not.
I've heard some buzz that DD might drop sooner than that, but I could see Jessica Jones (or maybe even Iron Fist) being ready right around then. If Fox tries something sneaky and moves FF to a different date Disney has a pretty decent 2015 lineup. They could easily move something else to compete. At this point, I think the other Pixar film (The Good Dinosaur), The Jungle Book, or Tomorrowland could possibly move close to FF if Fox tries to move it to a less crowded opening date.

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Old 07-02-2014, 09:26 PM   #148
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Rise of The Planet of The Apes was a very well received movie with high praise from critics and audiences but was hurt a little by the previous Burton movie that alienated audiences from the franchise.

Rise of The Planet of The Apes being the quality that it was restored faith In the franchise so much so that the bigger scale sequel has garnered a lot of interest and is tracking to get higher praise than Rise with an expected bigger Box Office take

The same thing had happened with the X-Men franchise. Fans were alienated with the fumbles of The Last Stand and Origins but faith restored with the Excellently received but low Box Office X-Men First Class. This was followed with the well received The Wolverine which garnered an increased box office from First Class and these two led to the bigger scale X-Men Days of Future Past which has gotten exemplary reception with it currently leading as the #1 Box Office movie of the year so far with a likely highest grossing CBM of the year status

Looking at these it give me hope that the same is likely to happen with the Fantastic Four franchise.

Audiences were burned with the old administrations failures previously with the franchise but the new administration seem likely to provide a quality movie though this but not a big box office earner.
The sequel like Dawn of The Planet of The Apes and X-Men Days of Future Past will likely go bigger scale with increased quality and increased Box Office

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Old 07-03-2014, 04:21 AM   #149
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Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

I just think if the reboot is good, then people will watch it despite the competition. The appeal of Fantastic Four is not even limited. I think the casuals are familiar that this is a Marvel property. If the first Fantastic Four movie earned 300 million+ worldwide, I don't see how this one won't perform the same especially if its a good movie.

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Old 07-03-2014, 05:40 AM   #150
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I just think if the reboot is good, then people will watch it despite the competition. The appeal of Fantastic Four is not even limited. I think the casuals are familiar that this is a Marvel property. If the first Fantastic Four movie earned 300 million+ worldwide, I don't see how this one won't perform the same especially if its a good movie.
This film could turn out to be the Citizen Kane of mutated quartet movies and it will have an nearly impossible task getting an audience. The two horrible Story films left the franchise broken, with the sequel's severe box office drop "earning" the franchise a seven year hiatus.

The hardcore fans are disgusted by the truly baffling choices made in casting, tone and source material. The casual fans are going to be watching Jurassic World, or the just-arrived-in-theaters Pixar film Inside Out. And the admittedly small group of fans of the Story films will be turned off by this gritty and grounded version.

There are not enough hardcore FOX/Marvel loyalists to counteract all the negatives that this FFINO film is up against. But it will accomplish FOX's goal - playing "keep away from Marvel" with the franchise rights for another seven years.

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