The SuperHeroHype Forums  

Go Back   The SuperHeroHype Forums > SHH Community > Politics

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 08-03-2009, 08:33 PM   #1
Paradoxium
Making Your Head Explode
 
Paradoxium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 22,485
Default Discussion: The REPUBLICAN Party II

Continued from previous thread.
http://forums.superherohype.com/showthread.php?t=313561

Democrat, Republican... same garbage can full of human sewage with chocolate cyanide sprinkles. If both parties were blokes at a bar, they would be the herbs who excessively placates and "act nice" to girls, only to get rejected all night long. Then they get pissed drunk, blackout and wake up the next day facing each other in bed at a cheap runned down motel.

Captain Optimistic to the rescue

__________________
.
.

Last edited by Marx; 06-22-2010 at 10:13 PM. Reason: Thread Merge
Paradoxium is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 08:34 PM   #2
redfirebird2008
Side-Kick
 
redfirebird2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 16,656
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Yeah I'm not sure what to make of those polls. Nebraska being a toss-up? Oklahoma leaning towards the Democrats? Those are two of the most conservative states.

redfirebird2008 is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 08:36 PM   #3
StorminNorman
Banned User
 
StorminNorman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 30,658
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

You are putting far too much weight into Party identification. Especially in the South, a lot of "Democrats" are conservatives that vote Republican in National elections. Indepedents are always the important votes and in that demographic Republican policy and support is on the rise while Obama's numbers are plummeting.

StorminNorman is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 08:38 PM   #4
Marlboro Man
Smokin'
 
Marlboro Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The Yellowhammer State
Posts: 627
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by redfirebird2008 View Post
Yeah I'm not sure what to make of those polls. Nebraska being a toss-up? Oklahoma leaning towards the Democrats? Those are two of the most conservative states.
The polls aren't measuring voting trends. They're measuring voter registration numbers and party self-identification.

Also, Oklahoma has a Democrat governor, Nebraska has a Democrat senator... both of whom won by over 60% of the vote when they ran for re-election. The states are conservative when compared to the nation as a whole, but on a local level, they are of a much different make up.

Marlboro Man is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 08:42 PM   #5
StorminNorman
Banned User
 
StorminNorman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 30,658
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Gallup's story mentions the fact it remains largely unchanged from 2008. Since that map looks very different from the 2008 election map, making a big deal out of it is purely ridiculous.

StorminNorman is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 08:43 PM   #6
Paradoxium
Making Your Head Explode
 
Paradoxium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 22,485
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

I rather independents stop voting altogether and not put Republicans back in power, which in return would let the Democratic unleash their economic insanity with no restraints at unrelenting speeds of epic fail (as oppose to the Republican's slow weak sauce version of it). This would be more enjoyable than watching Wellingites crawl in a corner cry, when they realize Welling is too old to be Superman on film.

__________________
.
.
Paradoxium is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 10:36 PM   #7
Marx
Pixelated
 
Marx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 55,034
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Oklahoma, Louisiana, Georgia, and Tennessee solidly Democratic? I have a very hard time seeing that. The Republican Party is largely regionalized to the south as of late.

Quote:
Originally Posted by StorminNorman View Post
You are putting far too much weight into Party identification. Especially in the South, a lot of "Democrats" are conservatives that vote Republican in National elections. Indepedents are always the important votes and in that demographic Republican policy and support is on the rise while Obama's numbers are plummeting.
I agree Norm. Party Identification doesn't mean a whole lot...especially in the south. That being said, it should also be noted that while Obama's numbers are going down, the Republican's numbers ARE NOT going up either.

__________________
It can't rain all the time.
Marx is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 11:02 PM   #8
hippie_hunter
The King is Back!
SHH! Global Moderator
 
hippie_hunter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Titanium Groceries
Posts: 53,331
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marlboro Man View Post
The polls aren't measuring voting trends. They're measuring voter registration numbers and party self-identification.

Also, Oklahoma has a Democrat governor, Nebraska has a Democrat senator... both of whom won by over 60% of the vote when they ran for re-election. The states are conservative when compared to the nation as a whole, but on a local level, they are of a much different make up.
Governor Brad Henry and Senator Ben Nelson are rather conservative Democrats though.

I mean that's like saying how Connecticut and Hawaii have Republican governors and how New York and New Jersey are very likely to have Republican governors by this November.

__________________
Titanium Groceries!!!
hippie_hunter is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 11:51 PM   #9
Marlboro Man
Smokin'
 
Marlboro Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The Yellowhammer State
Posts: 627
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Even so, that still shows that the Democrats still have weight in these states. I'm actually sad to see my home state dipping in the 'leans republican' column. I thought our democrat numbers went up last year. I know we elected one more democrat to congress, and we might elect a democrat governor next year too.

Marlboro Man is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 11:56 PM   #10
hippie_hunter
The King is Back!
SHH! Global Moderator
 
hippie_hunter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Titanium Groceries
Posts: 53,331
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Where are you from?

__________________
Titanium Groceries!!!
hippie_hunter is offline  
Old 08-03-2009, 11:58 PM   #11
Marlboro Man
Smokin'
 
Marlboro Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The Yellowhammer State
Posts: 627
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by hippie_hunter View Post
Where are you from?
I'm still a registered voter in Alabama. Huntsville to be exact.

Marlboro Man is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 12:13 AM   #12
StorminNorman
Banned User
 
StorminNorman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 30,658
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marx View Post
I agree Norm. Party Identification doesn't mean a whole lot...especially in the south. That being said, it should also be noted that while Obama's numbers are going down, the Republican's numbers ARE NOT going up either.
Republicans numbers ARE going up - just not in Party identification. No one changes their party identification the year following an election. If Party Identification changes, it will be in 2010 and 2012.

StorminNorman is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 12:38 AM   #13
Kelly
#RESIST
SHH! Administrator
 
Kelly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 69,091
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by hippie_hunter View Post
Governor Brad Henry and Senator Ben Nelson are rather conservative Democrats though.

I mean that's like saying how Connecticut and Hawaii have Republican governors and how New York and New Jersey are very likely to have Republican governors by this November.
Yep, that's how it is here in Texas....most of our state office holders are very moderate democrats. I have a friend who is an elected judge in Wichita Falls, he has to run as a Democrat to be elected because the demographics in Wichita Falls are very much old, Roosevelt Democrats who will vote Democrat no matter what, even if they don't like the person....if there is an (R) by the name, they will not vote for them even though they may like them. Just ignorant voting, but its been like that for decades. He's very conservative, and is nothing like a Democrat, but in order to get elected he has to have a (D) by his name....kinda stupid...but reality.

__________________

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the whole staircase.
~Martin Luther King Jr.~
Kelly is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 03:13 AM   #14
redfirebird2008
Side-Kick
 
redfirebird2008's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 16,656
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kel View Post
And it is talk like this that will keep it from happening....no change will EVER happen within the two party system, they have been proving this for the past 3 decades.

Of course you are entitled to your opinion, but having lived through the past 4 decades now, or soon....I've seen the proof first hand, and I see "no" proof that it will change even in your lifetime, certainly not mine.
Exactly. The two prop each other up.

redfirebird2008 is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 02:09 PM   #15
Shifty
Chief of Surgery
 
Shifty's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: The Knickerbocker Hospital
Posts: 13,779
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

The future...

Quote:
For The Modern GOP, It's A Return To The "White Voter Strategy"
First Posted: 08- 3-09 09:56 PM | Updated: 08- 4-09 11:34 AM
Thomas B. Edsall Edsall@huffingtonpost.com


With Republican party leaders so constrained by ideological blinders that none of their positions is likely to produce gains among non-white minorities, especially Hispanics, the GOP is finding it has no real alternative but to revert to a "white voter" strategy.

To some extent, it's working. The party's opposition to President Obama's agenda -- particularly his cap-and-trade energy proposal and health care reform plan -- is resonating strongly with disaffected white Democratic voters. Republican grievances about Obama, combined with race-baiting commentary from the far-right ideologues who have become some of the most dominant voices of the modern GOP, have led to a precipitous drop in the president's approval ratings among whites.

It's all very reminiscent of the party's notorious Southern Strategy, which carried the GOP for decades. But that strategy backfired spectacularly in the 2006 and 2008 elections, and there's no reason to think it will work any better in 2010 -- especially given the ever-growing importance of the minority electorate.

In this respect, even if the GOP picks up a few House and Senate seats in 2010, many of the party's top analysts believe that it will remain mired in minority status through 2012 and beyond. Other analysts say it may even decline to the level of a minor regional party, with its only real strength in the South.

The Appeal to White Voters

The appeal of the anti-Obama agenda has proven to be particularly strong among whites of low and moderate incomes. The Pew Center, tracking evaluations of Obama's job performance, found in a July 30 report that there "has been essentially no shift in opinion among affluent whites [but] among whites with annual family incomes of less than $75,000, Obama's approval ratings have declined substantially (from 57% in June to 47% today). Assessments of Obama's performance remain high among African Americans (85%)."

ABC News polling similarly found in late June that the possible costs to consumers of cap-and-trade legislation "are particularly important to less well-off Americans. Among those making less than $50,000 a year, support for regulating greenhouse gas emissions drops by 17 points (from 75 percent to a still-majority 58 percent) if it raises prices; support if it costs $10 a month is 49 percent; and at $25, just 35 percent."

The trend lines reported by Gallup are perhaps the most striking: At the start of this year, during late January, Gallup found that Obama's job approval ratings stood at 63 percent among whites, 86 percent among African Americans, and 74 percent among Hispanics. In the Gallup survey taken in late July, Obama had gained 9 points among blacks, reaching 95 percent job approval, and was holding his own among Hispanics, dropping a statistically insignificant 2 points to 72 percent.

Among white respondents, however, he had dropped 16 points to 47 percent.

These findings are reinforced by recent trend lines emerging in the Wall Street Journal/NBC polling series.

In that series, the decline has been sharpest among white men, whose approval-disapproval ratio fell by 27 points, from 50-36 to 40-53.

The Demographic Trends

Republican pollster Bill McInturff notes that his party must make substantial gains among Hispanic voters or be relegated to minority status. But that just isn't likely.

With a solid majority of Republican senators opposed to the appointment of Sonia Sotomayor, the first Latina nominee to the Supreme Court, and a solid phalanx of adamant Republican opposition to any immigration reform which provides a path to permanent residency of illegal immigrants, the GOP has no real chance of increasing its share of the Hispanic vote.

In the short term, McInturff and others point out that virtually all the Democrats' vulnerabilities are among Anglo voters, especially white men. These trends are likely to produce some victories for Republican candidates in 2010, but the party continues to have long-term problems in building a sustainable election-day majority.

President George W. Bush and his top advisers were acutely aware of the long-range limitations of a "white" Republican Party. Bush, in his appointments and some of his policies, sought to reach out to the crucially important Hispanic electorate, most significantly pushing for immigration reform that would have provided a path to permanent legal residency and possibly citizenship for millions of undocumented immigrants in the country.

The effort paid off for Bush in 2004, when he received 44 percent of the Hispanic vote, a Republican record.

In 2005, however, Bush's use of the immigration issue as a vehicle to win over Hispanics imploded. Republican members of Congress overwhelmingly rejected the proposal, often using language suggesting Hispanics did not share American values and other comments that angered and offended the Hispanic electorate. In the 2006 elections, only 30 percent of Latinos voted Republican, and in the 2008 presidential election, the Republican candidate, Sen. John McCain, got just 31 percent.

The Republican Party thrived between 1968 and 2000 primarily because of the gains it made among white voters, especially among formerly Democratic working-class whites, a disproportionate share of whom were men. By 2000, however, the GOP's white strategy began to run out of gas, as the white percentage of the electorate dropped to 80 percent and below.

The trend is striking. In 1976, 89 percent of the electorate was white. That number fell every four years, to 88 percent in 1980, 86 percent in 1984, 85 percent in 1988, 83 percent in 1996, 81 percent in 2000, 77 percent in 2004, and 74 percent last year. The only exception was 1992, when the presence of independent candidate Ross Perot drove the white percentage of the electorate up to 87 percent.

Nate Silver, a sports statistician and political analyst, looks at this from a different vantage point:

Consider this remarkable statistic. In 1980, 32 percent of the electorate consisted of white Democrats (or at least white Carter voters) -- likewise, in 2008, 32 percent of the electorate consisted of white Obama voters. But whereas, in 1980, just 9 percent of the electorate were nonwhite Carter voters, 21 percent of the electorate were nonwhite Obama voters last year. Thus, Carter went down to a landslide defeat, whereas Obama defeated John McCain by a healthy margin.

Silver points out that Republicans are getting slightly less dependent on white voters, but Democrats

are becoming less white at a much faster rate than the Republicans. Whereas 85 percent of their votes were from white voters in 1976, the number was just 60 percent last November. This is, of course, a helpful characteristic, since the nonwhite share of the electorate, just 11 percent in 1976 and 1980, represented more than a quarter of the turnout in November.

Silver produced this chart:


Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz has, in turn, tracked the growth of minority votes cast in presidential elections since 1992 and finds:



For the Republican Party, these trends not only illustrate the danger of attempting to win without improving margins among minority voters, but also the danger that a modest collection of Congressional wins next year - say 10-15 House seats --will only reinforce the dominant forces in the House and Senate wings of the GOP that adamantly support a conservative agenda that precludes concessions to minority groups. That, in turn, would increase the likelihood that the Democratic Party will be able to maintain majority status in 2012 and beyond.

__________________
We're a hospital. We need cocaine to exist.
- Dr. John Thackery
#TheKnick
Shifty is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 02:10 PM   #16
Kelly
#RESIST
SHH! Administrator
 
Kelly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 69,091
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Unfortunately, yep....it looks like that is the direction they are going....

__________________

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the whole staircase.
~Martin Luther King Jr.~
Kelly is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 04:00 PM   #17
Nivek
Banned User
 
Nivek's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Central FL
Posts: 14,850
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

OMG, who will look out for the white people! Look at those numbers!

Nivek is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 06:18 PM   #18
Lightning Strykez!
Former Mod On Pension Pay
 
Lightning Strykez!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Where Mortals Fear To Tread
Posts: 32,384
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shifty View Post
x 5,000.

So...we're looking forward to a burst of "White Power" again via the GOP? C'mon, can't they come up with something a little more...original? Really?

__________________
"Give The Rights Back To Marvel" is officially now a thing.

Lightning Strykez! is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 06:24 PM   #19
Marx
Pixelated
 
Marx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 55,034
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

...apparently not.

__________________
It can't rain all the time.
Marx is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 06:28 PM   #20
Lightning Strykez!
Former Mod On Pension Pay
 
Lightning Strykez!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Where Mortals Fear To Tread
Posts: 32,384
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Marx View Post
...apparently not.
I swear to god...I am thinking about moving to England. And no, I am not joking. They do not have these kinds of issues...like we do here.

And they're ruled by a Queen. *insert gay joke here*

__________________
"Give The Rights Back To Marvel" is officially now a thing.

Lightning Strykez! is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 06:35 PM   #21
Marx
Pixelated
 
Marx's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Ohio
Posts: 55,034
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightning Strykez! View Post
I swear to god...I am thinking about moving to England. And no, I am not joking. They do not have these kinds of issues...like we do here.

And they're ruled by a Queen. *insert gay joke here*
If the Republican Party thinks that 'rallying the white vote' is going to magically solve all of their problems...they are gravely mistaken.

__________________
It can't rain all the time.
Marx is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 08:23 PM   #22
ChrisBaleBatman
Legendary Hero
 
ChrisBaleBatman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Shadow Moses
Posts: 19,677
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Poor white people.

They should have crushed us all when they had the chance.

ChrisBaleBatman is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 08:27 PM   #23
Paradoxium
Making Your Head Explode
 
Paradoxium's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Posts: 22,485
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lightning Strykez! View Post
I swear to god...I am thinking about moving to England. And no, I am not joking. They do not have these kinds of issues...like we do here.

And they're ruled by a Queen. *insert gay joke here*
The sterling is being raped through the nine circles of hell. Most of the young, ambitious and most promising from that country is moving out in general. You can do a lot better than England.

__________________
.
.
Paradoxium is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 08:34 PM   #24
ChrisBaleBatman
Legendary Hero
 
ChrisBaleBatman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Shadow Moses
Posts: 19,677
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

By creating our own country, known as Outer Heaven.

Who's in?

ChrisBaleBatman is offline  
Old 08-04-2009, 08:39 PM   #25
Marlboro Man
Smokin'
 
Marlboro Man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: The Yellowhammer State
Posts: 627
Default Re: The Future of the Republican Party

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shifty View Post
What's more shocking is that, if these trends continue, Republicans could eventually lose Texas and Florida. If they lose either of those two states, then they will be screwed in national elections.

Marlboro Man is offline  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:12 AM.

monitoring_string = "dee460792f24517621e3ca080805de7e"



Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
SuperHeroHype.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2017 All Rights Reserved.