The SuperHeroHype Forums  

Go Back   The SuperHeroHype Forums > General Movies > Marvel Films

Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-29-2015, 05:45 PM   #351
Human Torch
Banned User
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Far away from germs!!!!!
Posts: 10,850
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by KRYPTON INC. View Post
So... You are saying it will make over $600 million at the world wide box office, despite mixed reviews and having split fans? It will re-establish a moribund franchise onto healthier legs and give it a pop culture presence to compete in the super hero market and spawn a sequel that has great anticipacion behind it? Is that what you are saying?
I don't think it'll get anywhere near $600 million,but the rest might be closer to reality if you said "Poor critical reaction,split fans over it "Grimdark-ifing" a famously colorful franchise, needing a gimmicky crossover in the sequel (presumably X-Men) to hopefully legitimize it in the eyes of jaded fans going forward."

Human Torch is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 05:46 PM   #352
Ragnaroknroll
Side-Kick
 
Ragnaroknroll's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 3,349
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kahran Ramsus View Post
When I was at Wal-Mart yesterday they had Certified Fresh at RT labels on certain films as well.
It's an interesting way to market your film but I don't put too much stock in RT. I find myself scratching my head a lot of times based on how a film is scored. I get that the metric is an impartial aggregation but to me it's just a curiosity. I will say this though... generally when something is widely panned - it's pretty bad.

Ragnaroknroll is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 05:52 PM   #353
Kahran Ramsus
Side-Kick
 
Kahran Ramsus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: The Sunshine State
Posts: 10,502
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ragnaroknroll View Post
It's an interesting way to market your film but I don't put too much stock in RT. I find myself scratching my head a lot of times based on how a film is scored. I get that the metric is an impartial aggregation but to me it's just a curiosity. I will say this though... generally when something is widely panned - it's pretty bad.
I can understand your personal feelings.

But RT is an important barometer to many people and positive ratings have become a marketing tool. That site has become the standard in the mainstream above places like IMDB, Metacritic, etc.

Kahran Ramsus is online now  
Old 01-29-2015, 07:07 PM   #354
Dr Tactics
Ill Brova
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: New Jeruz
Posts: 945
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Human Torch View Post
I don't think it'll get anywhere near $600 million,but the rest might be closer to reality if you said "Poor critical reaction,split fans over it "Grimdark-ifing" a famously colorful franchise, needing a gimmicky crossover in the sequel (presumably X-Men) to hopefully legitimize it in the eyes of jaded fans going forward."
I was thinking has a bad movie ever had a bad teaser trailer? I've never seen a bad teaser trailer in which to know that thats a bad movie...

And to make $600 Mill WW they better do some promoting.. MI5 is gonna Crush!!!

So glad this trainwreck is finally on the tracks..

Dr Tactics is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 07:18 PM   #355
Spiderine
Sho nuff
 
Spiderine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Xandar
Posts: 5,116
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Some of you sure are setting the bar high as hell for this film. A reboot of a franchise that wasn't well received that was released just 8 years ago. Already controversial with many fans divided. And they just moved MI5 right next to it. The GA will be hesitant about this one. Very generous numbers from some of you.

Spiderine is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 09:24 PM   #356
Dasher10
I'm like Deadpool IRL
 
Dasher10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,012
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spiderine View Post
Some of you sure are setting the bar high as hell for this film. A reboot of a franchise that wasn't well received that was released just 8 years ago. Already controversial with many fans divided. And they just moved MI5 right next to it. The GA will be hesitant about this one. Very generous numbers from some of you.
This. If it sucks, $200M, if it's good, $300-$350M. $400M is the ceiling. Theoretically it can gross over 400 but that's a pipedream. I'd seriously bet money on this film not grossing over 400.

Dasher10 is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 09:47 PM   #357
wobbly
Occasional Scribbler
 
wobbly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Essex, UK
Posts: 9,691
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Spiderine View Post
Some of you sure are setting the bar high as hell for this film. A reboot of a franchise that wasn't well received that was released just 8 years ago. Already controversial with many fans divided. And they just moved MI5 right next to it. The GA will be hesitant about this one. Very generous numbers from some of you.
I think $300mil WW is a realistic target if the critics gush over it and the word of mouth from the GA is good (and it is a good film regardless of our opinions on how it's been done). I would consider that at the high end atm though.

If this fails to hit a chord with GA like the Dredd reboot did then it could do a lot less, but I think 'The Incredible Hulk's numbers might well be the closer 'reboot benchmark' to go by with this one (that got around $270mil).

Using the Marvel brand prominently in the marketing (and they did with the teaser) and riding on the tail of DOFP might help it too.

We will find out come August one way or another.

__________________
To see some gratuitous Wobbly Bits just hit the link :)
wobbly is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 09:58 PM   #358
Dasher10
I'm like Deadpool IRL
 
Dasher10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,012
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by wobbly View Post
I think $300mil WW is a realistic target if the critics gush over it and the word of mouth from the GA is good (and it is a good film regardless of our opinions on how it's been done). I would consider that at the high end atm though.

If this fails to hit a chord with GA like the Dredd reboot did then it could do a lot less, but I think 'The Incredible Hulk's numbers might well be the closer 'reboot benchmark' to go by with this one (that got around $270mil).

Using the Marvel brand prominently in the marketing (and they did with the teaser) and riding on the tail of DOFP might help it too.

We will find out come August one way or another.

Exactly. Continuing a failed property with a sequel, prequel or reboot is probably doing Incredible Hulk or First Class numbers.

Dasher10 is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 10:05 PM   #359
Stormz96
WE did it.
 
Stormz96's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: NY
Posts: 2,067
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

The previous franchise is what I think is gonna truly put a low cap on the total ww gross. If it didn't have that, for lack of a better word, "stain" on the f4 name with the GA, I'd consider it's possibilities much much higher. I'd place my bets on 350-400 with good reviews. But who knows how fox will market this thing, I doubt they'll pull out all the stops though

__________________
Keep your hands off my Lobby Boy!

~*SHH SIX*~
That's So Kraven

Spidey Ratings: SM1- 8.5/10 SM2- 10/10 SM3- 5/10
TASM- 8/10 TASM2- 6.5/10

Last edited by Stormz96; 01-29-2015 at 10:15 PM.
Stormz96 is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 10:15 PM   #360
Dasher10
I'm like Deadpool IRL
 
Dasher10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,012
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stormz96 View Post
The previous franchise is what I think is gonna truly put a low cap on the total ww gross. If it didn't have that, for lack of a better word, "stain" on the f4 name with the GA, I'd consider it's possibilities much much higher. I'd place all bets on 350-400 with good reviews. But who knows how fox will market this thing, I doubt they'll pull out all the stops though
Decrease that to $300-$350. It's tonally different from the previous failed films so people won't know what to make of it. It took two well received films to get the X-Men back on Track and a really good Batman film to do the same.

Dasher10 is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 10:19 PM   #361
Stormz96
WE did it.
 
Stormz96's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: NY
Posts: 2,067
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dasher10 View Post
Decrease that to $300-$350. It's tonally different from the previous failed films so people won't know what to make of it. It took two well received films to get the X-Men back on Track and a really good Batman film to do the same.
Yea I suppose. Man of Steel had a big appeal in the international market though, so maybe this'll hit some good notes oversees as well (it won't near man of steel's gross, but MoS's situation rebooting was kind of similar to F4s, with superman returns and all)

__________________
Keep your hands off my Lobby Boy!

~*SHH SIX*~
That's So Kraven

Spidey Ratings: SM1- 8.5/10 SM2- 10/10 SM3- 5/10
TASM- 8/10 TASM2- 6.5/10

Last edited by Stormz96; 01-29-2015 at 10:22 PM.
Stormz96 is offline  
Old 01-29-2015, 11:52 PM   #362
Saitou Hajime
Side-Kick
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 2,239
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Stormz96 View Post
Yea I suppose. Man of Steel had a big appeal in the international market though, so maybe this'll hit some good notes oversees as well (it won't near man of steel's gross, but MoS's situation rebooting was kind of similar to F4s, with superman returns and all)
Superman is an immensely popular icon, the film had loads of spectacle (which is what mostly drives international audiences), and WB had an aggressive marketing campaign.

Saitou Hajime is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 12:02 AM   #363
Stormz96
WE did it.
 
Stormz96's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: NY
Posts: 2,067
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Saitou Hajime View Post
Superman is an immensely popular icon, the film had loads of spectacle (which is what mostly drives international audiences), and WB had an aggressive marketing campaign.
Yea but superman returns made less than 2005's f4, so the franchises were at similar positions during their reboot periods. I'm just saying that the international market could be attracted to this movie, it's highly unlikely the film would ever make man of steel money, but I'm saying the international BO appeal could be there to an extent

__________________
Keep your hands off my Lobby Boy!

~*SHH SIX*~
That's So Kraven

Spidey Ratings: SM1- 8.5/10 SM2- 10/10 SM3- 5/10
TASM- 8/10 TASM2- 6.5/10
Stormz96 is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 01:41 AM   #364
Dasher10
I'm like Deadpool IRL
 
Dasher10's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Posts: 5,012
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Superman was also far more popular thanks to recent animated films +Smallville + Scott Lobdell and Grant Morrison writing the comics with the New 52 which is why it was able to gross $600M.

Fantastic Four has been struggling. The last attempt at a TV show failed to get renewed for a second season due to low ratings. The comics struggled with sales between Mark Waid and Jonathan Hickman despite JMS and Mark Millar writing and after Hickman left, Matt Fraction couldn't keep sales up and was replaced with James Robinson who still couldn't make the FF sell as well as the Avengers or X-Men.

This film isn't going to get Man of Steel's box office revenue.

Dasher10 is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 04:52 AM   #365
psylockolussus
Fierce User
 
psylockolussus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: X-Mansion
Posts: 32,978
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

$350 million would be fine for 20th Century Fox and it would be enough for it to be the highest grossing Fantastic Four film yet.

And I still think this film has a smaller budget than the last two films, like more or less $90 million. And if it underperforms in North America... the foreign market would make up for it. See, The Wolverine.

__________________
DcEU / MCU / foX movie rankingbest to worst
XDOFP, X2, WW, XFC, CATWS, CACW, DS, TR, TA, X, T, IR, GOTGV2, L, D, TW, IR3, GOTG, AM, SMH, TIH, CATFA, AAOU, IR2, TTDW, XTLS, MOS, JL, XA, XOW, BVSDOJ, SS (ranked by psylockolussus, a believer)
psylockolussus is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 06:13 AM   #366
coolmovies
Side-Kick
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 250
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Even if this movie turns out great it won't be huge. One has to remember that this is a reboot of franchise that has yet to have a decent movie. I can't think of any reboot that has matched or opened bigger than any of their predecessors.
Batman Begins had a great marketing campaign but had a very disappointing opening weekend. The Incredible Hulk looked more action packed and fun, but also disappointed on opening weekend. Many examples like that...except maybe MOS. But that is because Zack Snyder and wb cut some really amazing trailers and the campaign was one of the best ever for a cbm.

Therefore, even if this movie is good and has a very good campaign from here on, I see this opening between

45-50 million domestically and ending between 115-125 million.
180-200 million overseas.

295-325 million worldwide.

Take the average..most likely will end up with 310 million worldwide.

coolmovies is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 08:05 AM   #367
Stormz96
WE did it.
 
Stormz96's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: NY
Posts: 2,067
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Realisticly, the film could never make MoS level money ww. Just using it as an example of how the International Box Office could kinda give these kinds of movies a boost.

My final prediction bSed on the likelihood of how the final product turns out plus likelihood of marketing, give or take 250 ww

__________________
Keep your hands off my Lobby Boy!

~*SHH SIX*~
That's So Kraven

Spidey Ratings: SM1- 8.5/10 SM2- 10/10 SM3- 5/10
TASM- 8/10 TASM2- 6.5/10
Stormz96 is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 08:16 AM   #368
Orba
Side-Kick
 
Orba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: UK
Posts: 3,054
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

A lot could depend on what sort of advertising campaign Fox decide to give the film, it doesn't matter much how good a film is if no-one remembers that it exists. Last year the Edge of Tomorrow didn't do great despite good reviews (and that can't all be blamed on people being put off by Tom Cruise), a lot of people just forgot it was out. An example of how bad the marketing for the film is the fact that WB didn't do marketing research on how to promote the film until after it was released.

Orba is online now  
Old 01-30-2015, 12:17 PM   #369
Flint Marko
Side-Kick
 
Flint Marko's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 13,808
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kahran Ramsus View Post
I can understand your personal feelings.

But RT is an important barometer to many people and positive ratings have become a marketing tool. That site has become the standard in the mainstream above places like IMDB, Metacritic, etc.
I'm personally glad this is the case, RT has been my go-to website for years. Never much cared for IMDB or meta critic.

__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stan Lee
Now characters such as the X-Men and the Fantastic Four can come home to the place where they belong. It’s vitally important to have the Marvel characters under one roof. And now, as great as they were before, I can’t wait to see the wonders that will unfold!
Flint Marko is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 01:14 PM   #370
Farren
Side Kicker
 
Farren's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 3,216
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Orba View Post
A lot could depend on what sort of advertising campaign Fox decide to give the film, it doesn't matter much how good a film is if no-one remembers that it exists. Last year the Edge of Tomorrow didn't do great despite good reviews (and that can't all be blamed on people being put off by Tom Cruise), a lot of people just forgot it was out. An example of how bad the marketing for the film is the fact that WB didn't do marketing research on how to promote the film until after it was released.
I agree. Fox gave The Wolverine pretty limited marketing (although those teaser posters were pretty cool) and I remember comments on other places online to the effect of "I didn't even know this movie was coming out" just after its release.

My personal guess is that FF will get better marketing than The Wolverine but not as much as DoFP. Although even The Wolverine had Mangold tweeting pics from filming so at this point FF is still behind and has a lot of marketing ground to make up.

I don't think this movie will bomb though. I think it's just not possible these days for a big budget non-R-rated superhero movie (esp one with that Marvel logo attached). Just look at TMNT: that movie opened in the same slot as FF will (and also had to deal with GotG being released a week before much like FF will have to deal with MI5), and it was still a success. Then again TMNT probably appealed to the kiddie crowd, and if Fox doesn't market this right, they might drive some of those parents with young kids away.

__________________
C2: Cyclops Fans - United (2006)
Farren is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 01:19 PM   #371
Spiderine
Sho nuff
 
Spiderine's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Xandar
Posts: 5,116
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Farren View Post
I agree. Fox gave The Wolverine pretty limited marketing (although those teaser posters were pretty cool) and I remember comments on other places online to the effect of "I didn't even know this movie was coming out" just after its release.

My personal guess is that FF will get better marketing than The Wolverine but not as much as DoFP. Although even The Wolverine had Mangold tweeting pics from filming so at this point FF is still behind and has a lot of marketing ground to make up.

I don't think this movie will bomb though. I think it's just not possible these days for a big budget non-R-rated superhero movie (esp one with that Marvel logo attached). Just look at TMNT: that movie opened in the same slot as FF will (and also had to deal with GotG being released a week before much like FF will have to deal with MI5), and it was still a success. Then again TMNT probably appealed to the kiddie crowd, and if Fox doesn't market this right, they might drive some of those parents with young kids away.
I think the kiddies went out in droves and wanted to see the turtles which gets a lot of exposure on tv in the past decade. Saturday morning toon and the new one on Nic. Will dark and depressing FF have that same appeal?

Spiderine is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 01:46 PM   #372
Kelly
#RESIST
SHH! Administrator
 
Kelly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Houston, Texas
Posts: 69,088
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Orba View Post
A lot could depend on what sort of advertising campaign Fox decide to give the film, it doesn't matter much how good a film is if no-one remembers that it exists. Last year the Edge of Tomorrow didn't do great despite good reviews (and that can't all be blamed on people being put off by Tom Cruise), a lot of people just forgot it was out. An example of how bad the marketing for the film is the fact that WB didn't do marketing research on how to promote the film until after it was released.
This is true, they could possibly do the whole College Basketball thing that they did the first time with the FINAL FOUR, but for some reason I don't see that happening. Their Burger King merchandise was dismal sale at best the first time around, and they didn't even do anything like that the 2nd time.

Maybe something with the NBA Championships is possible.

Who knows...

__________________

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that. The ultimate measure of a man is not where he stands in moments of comfort and convenience, but where he stands at times of challenge and controversy.
Faith is taking the first step even when you don't see the whole staircase.
~Martin Luther King Jr.~
Kelly is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 02:10 PM   #373
Orba
Side-Kick
 
Orba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: UK
Posts: 3,054
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

From looking at the tone they were trying to set with this first trailer I can't see things like fast food merchandising, that sort of stuff is aimed at kids and from the trailer Fox are not aiming this film at that market.

Orba is online now  
Old 01-30-2015, 03:12 PM   #374
wobbly
Occasional Scribbler
 
wobbly's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Essex, UK
Posts: 9,691
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Orba View Post
From looking at the tone they were trying to set with this first trailer I can't see things like fast food merchandising, that sort of stuff is aimed at kids and from the trailer Fox are not aiming this film at that market.
I think it was Teller who said this wasn't gonna be one for the kids. If so that's another factor against it doing big numbers. If it's too adult that's a big market they will be missing out on there.

__________________
To see some gratuitous Wobbly Bits just hit the link :)
wobbly is offline  
Old 01-30-2015, 04:08 PM   #375
Orba
Side-Kick
 
Orba's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2014
Location: UK
Posts: 3,054
Default Re: Fantastic Four Box Office Prediction Thread

Yup, and while they could change the tone in the later trailers that could lead to mixed messages. The DOFP teaser was kind of dark in tone but the previous film had already set a tone so the dark tone in the teaser was just a way of showing that events had taken a turn for the worse since the previous films. With this teaser they have immediately made people start to think of the film as being Intersteller like, to then present the film as something lighter and more comic could confuse the audience as to what sort of film it is. And if the audience isn't sure what sort of film it is they are often put off.

So I think they are probably tied to their more serious, "hard scifi" tone and the part of the audience that style of film attracts.

Orba is online now  
Closed Thread

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:50 AM.

monitoring_string = "dee460792f24517621e3ca080805de7e"



Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2017, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
SuperHeroHype.com is a property of CraveOnline Media, LLC, an Evolve Media, LLC company. ©2017 All Rights Reserved.