Man of Steel Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 5

[Obi Wan Kenobi]

Originally Posted by Tra-El

Better score? Better music? Of course! Singer took the easy way out and left his creative mindset at home! How puny is it to retread a classic and legendary film while trying to reintroduce Superman to the modern audience and expecting it to be accepted as new and fresh?

A better Superman?

Impregnating Lois Lane in the Fortress of Soltitude, not having the smarts to realize he passed on his seed, erasing Lois's mind and then taking off for 5 years to not only leave Earth of his protection without any explanation, but leaving Lois hanging (the woman is SUPPOSEDLY loves) without ever saying goodbye.

Returns from Krypton 5 years later to come back and realize Earth has moved on from his hiatus, including Lois Lane, who now has a child and is engaged to Perry Whites nephew, all the while being the culprit of being absent in Luthor's trial, which got him off in the first place (nice priorities, Supes!)

What does he do?

Instead of owning up and excepting Lois's anger towards him and how 5 years is a long time to be gone without a trace or whimper, he stalks Lois outside of her home, one to whom she shares with Richard and Jason, and makes a move to carry her out to explain who he is and tortures her with his body warmth, only to see LOIS pull away and admit Richard is a good man. Yeah, real nice Supes, what a better Superman!

Oh yeah, how could he be a better Superman when he is too dumb enough to know or focus on a whole island full of Kryptonite?

Man of Steel embraces Clark Kent to a new world and understanding his orphan story forced to act and stay true to his upbringing as an Earthling child, one who he isn't one of.

MOS was ballsy and I applaud this new direction no other director would even THINK to have the gahonas to move into.

Superman Returns was a last gasp and showed the ultimate FEAR in letting this character turn a new leaf out of an 1978 era and riding Chris Reeve's coattails in 2006 was an epic FAIL of trying to tread water within an outdated version of the character.

Man of Steel, again, was full steam ahead in reintroducing a new set of rules for the character but holding true to his iconic image and that's why Man of Steel completely BLOWS AWAY Superman Returns and it showed in his OW BO numbers.

For all that, MOS set another record. Its going to have a 71% drop this weekend.

The Superman die hards were last weekend, this weekend and the next few will tell the real story about MOS.

And yes Brandon Routh is a better Superman than Mr. Cavill. Their was nothing "iconic" in MOS except for SM catching Lois mid air a few times. MOS had a great fight in Smallville, a great scene we finally got to with the gravity ray and thats pretty much it. The fight with Zod was too long.

Icon is Superman saving the plane and space shuttle. Icon is Superman flying up through the cloulds to the sun WITH EMOTIONAL MUSIC attached. But hey if you think Superman throwing Zod through countless buildings, snapping Zods neck, saving Lois from his own robot and struggling to fly, then ok.

In no way am I saying SR is all that, I'm saying MOS is only slightly better. If MOS makes more than 300 million domestic I'll be in a state of shock.

BTW SR didn't have hundreds of marketing tie ins as MOS nor did the producers of SR go peddling to christian churches begging christians to go see the movie because Superman = Jesus. Yeah thats what I call reall ballsy.

Be thankful its made the money overseas it has for a seqeul. MOS = The Phantom Menace. Ton of hype, horrible plot, wooden emotionless acting, bad editing only saved by a few fights and other action. Just like the only thing that saved TPM was Darth Maul and people wanted to see a duel with a double bladed lightsaber. People are hearing the plot and story are stupid but the action is great. It won't be enough to carry it much more. I've told everyone I know to go see it and judge for themselves, a few have already told me they'll pass and wait until it comes out on bluray.

[kguillou]

Originally Posted by Tra-El

The way I see it, MOS made bank and will continue to have an overall impressive WW number, probably somewhere in-between 700-800 million respectively.

The sequel is all but a lock and a wider, more broader universe is going to take-shape more than likely after an established sequel.

MOS did what it was intended to do. The numbers will take care of itself and 'tis what it 'tis. I still don't understand why people get so caught up in the bragging rights section.

MOS did a huge BO OW, set a June record and already obliterated Superman Returns in numbers already and it should be a big number overseas to where it has yet to release in some countries.

I'm not worried in the slightest, it's a huge success from what I can see. People just want to bite off more than what they can chew and freak out over drops 2 weeks into its release. Everything is going to be FINE. Heh.

I LOVE and appreciate your positivity, dude. I think alot of us just really really really want a sequel and an eventual DC universe and we want this movie to perform the best it can so the execs at Warner can greenlight it. I too feel like this will perform well enough to warrant it but I don't blame people for feeling worried.

It's funny, I don't think i've ever seen this much talk and coverage over a CBM's box office performance before. It just goes to show you just how much is riding on this film.

[BH/HHH]

Originally Posted by FilmNerdJamie

Way too much overreaction/panic here. This is not WOM talking (evidence is good/OK) but competition.

Monsters University and World War Z took away both of its core audiences; families and men. The latter did so way much more than I anticipated but it will be quite front-loaded and I expect Man of Steel to stabilize today and tomorrow. Still thinking the estimates/actuals increase to more along the lines of $45M. We'll see.

WB got exactly what they wanted. Huge US opening, big overseas grosses and a new franchise to keep em going post Batman/Harry Potter. It will still crack $300M.

Jamie where have you been? What did you think of MOS?

[Ms. Marvel]

Originally Posted by Kevin Smith

I will be surprised if MOS makes it to 250 domestically. WOM is that bad on it. Makes me sad.

Nope.

[chiefchirpa]

Originally Posted by Kevin Smith

I will be surprised if MOS makes it to 250 domestically. WOM is that bad on it. Makes me sad.

The sequel will make up for it. All WB needs is to break even and some just like Begins.

[Ultimatehero]

Originally Posted by chiefchirpa

Man of Steel is not a "first" film. Iron Man is a first film. Man of Steel is a rethread film, just like Casino Royale or Abrams Star Trek. Do you know why Man of Steel opened in a stellar fashion (and I hope that will still continue) that's because most people old and young are already familiar with Superman from Donner film to Smallville. Meanwhile 95% people have zero knowledge of Iron Man/Tony Stark in the 1st film.

Royale made 167 mil. Trek 257 mil. Begins around 225 mil. We are looking to be the highest grossing first installment in a new franchise Branching off of the old. So... ?... Just confused about what the overall point was...

[BH/HHH]

Well if it does say 300 mill domestically but does better worldwide is that a bad thing! I've noticed that some people think its bad if it doesn't do aswell in the US as WW

[Skrilla31]

Originally Posted by Blackman

That being said I dont understand why the GA wont like this. I mean imo it's like a better made Transformers. It has a sh** ton of action, based on a well known characters. I didnt like this that much but Im surprised when people in the GA say they dont

In all honesty, it's not a better made Transformers.

Transformers was fun. It had levity. It was bright and colorful. It was fun to look at. It had sexy ass Megan Fox. That movie checked off all of the things you could possibly ask for in a dumb summer blockbuster. So of course, the dumb summer audiences responded in tune as they inhaled their tubs of popcorn and laughed at all of the one liners.

I don't think Snyder set out to make a dumb summer blockbuster but unfortunately that's just how it plays. And in that regard, it's a bad dumb summer blockbuster. MOS is joyless. There's no levity. It's not very colorful. There's no tits and ass. It takes a good hour and a half before the 'splosions start and by the time they do, most of the audience is already physically and emotionally exhausted. And even though the action itself is exquisite and over the top, you grow numb to it rather quickly.

[Liam_H]

WW should be around $700-750M which is similar to ASM.

[Ultimatehero]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Bloody hell that's way too much to spend on a film like WWZ

To be fair, no film plans for that to happen.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by Blackman

I heard WWZ budget is 200+ mill

Isn't MOS's budget around 250 mil? So it also needs to make alot more to recoup its investment.

[Ultimatehero]

Originally Posted by BH/HHH

Well if it does say 300 mill domestically but does better worldwide is that a bad thing! I've noticed that some people think its bad if it doesn't do aswell in the US as WW

Most fantasy films do better overseas than in the states.

[Ms. Marvel]

Originally Posted by Skrilla31

In all honesty, it's not a better made Transformers.

Transformers was fun. It had levity. It was bright and colorful. It was fun to look at. It had sexy ass Megan Fox. That movie checked off all of the things you could possibly ask for in a dumb summer blockbuster. So of course, the dumb summer audiences responded in tune as they inhaled their tubs of popcorn and laughed at all of the one liners.

I don't think Snyder set out to make a dumb summer blockbuster but unfortunately that's just how it plays. And in that regard, it's a bad dumb summer blockbuster. MOS is joyless. There's no levity. It's not very colorful. There's no tits and ass. It takes a good hour and a half before the 'splosions start and by the time they do, most of the audience is already physically and emotionally exhausted. And even though the action itself is exquisite and over the top, you grow numb to it rather quickly.

It made more money when Megan Fox left.

No offence dude but you're bad at predictions.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by restlessdreams

http://movies.yahoo.com/news/box-off...153202518.html

Last week's No. 1 movie, "Man of Steel," brought in $12.4 million from a market-high 4,207 theaters Friday, and is looking at a three-day total in the $40 million range. That's a steep 71 percent drop from last week for the Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures' Superman sequel, which has taken in $181 million domestically in just over a week.

Not good at all.

40 million is not bad at all. It was a very reasonable and realistic estimation considering the competition. If you had MOS grossing 65-70 million this weekend, then you were too optimistic.

[Blackman]

Originally Posted by Raiden

Isn't MOS's budget around 250 mil? So it also needs to make alot more to recoup its investment.

But MoS also has merchandising, all those tie ins with Hardees, Gillette, etc.

WWZ doesnt have that to my knowledge

[BH/HHH]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

WW should be around $700-750M which is similar to ASM.

That's be great

[skaldicpoet9]

Originally Posted by Obi Wan Kenobi

For all that, MOS set another record.
And yes Brandon Routh is a better Superman than Mr. Cavill. Their was nothing "iconic" in MOS except for SM catching Lois mid air a few times. MOS had a great fight in Smallville, a great scene we finally got to with the gravity ray and thats pretty much it. The fight with Zod was too long.

Ugh, I still don't understand how people can still think that Routh's Superman was the better Superman. I gave it a pass at the time, but Routh just feels like a little kid playing Superman. He looks too young (or maybe its that baby-face look) and just didn't have the gravitas that Reeve or Cavill has during their performances. I went back and re-watched Superman Returns before MoS and I was cringing every time that Routh was in the suit. It was just bad, and that was only underlined by the creepy super-stalker subplot. Cavill felt human and empathetic, strong, yet sensitive. I really got the Superman/Kal/Clark vibe from Cavill more than Routh ever was able to do for me, if he did at one time at all.

[Ultimatehero]

Originally Posted by Raiden

Isn't MOS's budget around 250 mil? So it also needs to make alot more to recoup its investment.

Thing is, at WORST, MOS is going to make 250-300 Domestically. Not to mention all of the merchandising partnerships.

I am Legend made 240 mil domestically and that had Will Smith who brings in triple the amount of most Brad Pitt movies (around 90% of them). With no merchandising partnerships.

They're two different kinds of movies. WWZ reportedly never set out for that high of a budget.

[Kevin Smith]

Originally Posted by chiefchirpa

The sequel will make up for it. All WB needs is to break even and some just like Begins.

You're assuming there will even be a sequel.

[chiefchirpa]

Originally Posted by Ultimatehero

Royale made 167 mil. Trek 257 mil. Begins around 225 mil. We are looking to be the highest grossing first installment in a new franchise Branching off of the old. So... ?... Just confused about what the overall point was...

Don't like the way you spin "first film". Man of Steel is not a first film basing on the Superman franchise. It's the sixth. There's already an established fandom. People know Superman and it's not something new. As for the highest grossing whatever, you can be sure the next Batman or Star Wars will beat the numbers as they also got the bandwagons too ready to roll.

[Ultimatehero]

Originally Posted by chiefchirpa

Don't like the way you spin "first film". Man of Steel is not a first film basing on the Superman franchise. It's the sixth. There's already an established fandom. People know Superman and it's not something new. As for the highest grossing whatever, you can be sure the next Batman or Star Wars will beat the numbers as they also got the bandwagon too ready to roll.

More often than not first installments whether it's a reboot or overall make around the same. Also at times first installments overall make MORE than those that are rebooted.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by Raiden

Isn't MOS's budget around 250 mil? So it also needs to make alot more to recoup its investment.

$225M, actually. So following the 2.5X rule it becomes traditionally sequel worthy when WW it gets to at least $562.5M. A number it has a better than even shot at beating. Of course WB is kinda desperate now that they no longer have Nolan's Batman nor HP to buoy them financially so even if the film just made $500M I think they'd go ahead with the sequel. But a good(but by no means exclusive) rule of thumb is that a movie breaks even WW at 2.0X the production budget and 2.5X means it's worth making more of with sequels.

[DoomsdayApex]

Originally Posted by Kevin Smith

You're assuming there will even be a sequel.

You're kidding, right?

MOS is going to make 290-300 million DM and likely 400 million OS, and you're worried that there won't be a sequel?

[chiefchirpa]

Originally Posted by Kevin Smith

You're assuming there will even be a sequel.

I'm assuming yes there will be. With overall WW numbers and Merc licensing, WB should recoup the investment. Of course they will tighten the budget for the sequel.

[Kevin Smith]

Originally Posted by Obi Wan Kenobi

For all that, MOS set another record. Its going to have a 71% drop this weekend.

The Superman die hards were last weekend, this weekend and the next few will tell the real story about MOS.

And yes Brandon Routh is a better Superman than Mr. Cavill. Their was nothing "iconic" in MOS except for SM catching Lois mid air a few times. MOS had a great fight in Smallville, a great scene we finally got to with the gravity ray and thats pretty much it. The fight with Zod was too long.

Icon is Superman saving the plane and space shuttle. Icon is Superman flying up through the cloulds to the sun WITH EMOTIONAL MUSIC attached. But hey if you think Superman throwing Zod through countless buildings, snapping Zods neck, saving Lois from his own robot and struggling to fly, then ok.

In no way am I saying SR is all that, I'm saying MOS is only slightly better. If MOS makes more than 300 million domestic I'll be in a state of shock.

BTW SR didn't have hundreds of marketing tie ins as MOS nor did the producers of SR go peddling to christian churches begging christians to go see the movie because Superman = Jesus. Yeah thats what I call reall ballsy.

Be thankful its made the money overseas it has for a seqeul. MOS = The Phantom Menace. Ton of hype, horrible plot, wooden emotionless acting, bad editing only saved by a few fights and other action. Just like the only thing that saved TPM was Darth Maul and people wanted to see a duel with a double bladed lightsaber. People are hearing the plot and story are stupid but the action is great. It won't be enough to carry it much more. I've told everyone I know to go see it and judge for themselves, a few have already told me they'll pass and wait until it comes out on bluray.

I agree with this for the most part, but there was some "Superman = Jesus" in Returns but it was only there from the Donner film, and I liked Cavill better as Superman, I also think he is a better actor, but in reality he is probably just as good as Routh (someone in my theater complained he looked like Freddy Mercury ??? lol....?).

I wish they would get that stuff away from Superman. You don't see me putting a cape on a crucifix. Let Superman be Superman for once, he isn't Jesus. My eyes rolled so hard I could hear them when he goes to see the priest in that one scene (Kents were methodist anyway, not catholic) and there's a giant stained glass picture of Jesus behind him.

Give me a break.