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Old 11-18-2017, 02:42 PM   #601
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

Sony buying Fox means that Avi Arad and Matt Tolmach will be producing the X-Men.

Comcast would be even worse. Universal like sitting on the Hulk rights to deny Disney a film. Even if they get the box office, they don't want to strengthen a competitor. They'll do the same thing to the FF and X-Men.

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Old 11-18-2017, 03:03 PM   #602
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

But what are the chances of Comcast or Sony buying Fox? Isn't the very very very obvious choice (for Fox) to sell to Disney, due to properties tied with Disney stuff?

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Old 11-18-2017, 03:44 PM   #603
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by ImSGirl95 View Post
But what are the chances of Comcast or Sony buying Fox? Isn't the very very very obvious choice (for Fox) to sell to Disney, due to properties tied with Disney stuff?
I would put it at something like:

40% Disney buys full package
15% Comcast buys full package
5% Sony buys full package
40% Split sale, different buyer or no sale

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Old 11-18-2017, 03:45 PM   #604
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by Dasher10 View Post
Sony buying Fox means that Avi Arad and Matt Tolmach will be producing the X-Men.
Don't forget Amy Pascal. The reverse Midas.


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Comcast would be even worse. Universal like sitting on the Hulk rights to deny Disney a film. Even if they get the box office, they don't want to strengthen a competitor. They'll do the same thing to the FF and X-Men.
Which begs the question as to whether it would make fiscal sense for them to get a hold of those rights. Hulk Distribution rights are in perpetuity. These X-Men+FF rights require certain actions by certain dates otherwise the rights revert. So they couldn't get away with what they are doing with Hulk. Actually making films is also highly risky. The diminishing returns of the X-films and Amazing Spider-Man should serve as a cautionary tale.

I'm convinced that even if Comcast were to buy Fox, those rights would likely be sold separately to Disney/Marvel by Fox.


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Originally Posted by ImSGirl95 View Post
But what are the chances of Comcast or Sony buying Fox? Isn't the very very very obvious choice (for Fox) to sell to Disney, due to properties tied with Disney stuff?
Sony's corporate debt is still very high, and they do not have nearly as much cash as their competitors. Their stock value also doesn't come any near the other big 3, so a stock deal would likely be out of the question.

Yes, the obvious choice is Disney, but Universal may still get involved and get some of the properties. Just not the Disney affiliated ones.


Last edited by Big Bang; 11-18-2017 at 03:49 PM.
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Old 11-18-2017, 04:33 PM   #605
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

Sony would be a surprising out of nowhere win would be interesting....

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Old 11-18-2017, 04:46 PM   #606
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

A basic breakdown of the players involved in trying to buyout parts of Fox:

There are a lot more factors that play into a companies' solvency when trying to acquire another company of similar scale, but these figures should give you an idea of their overall current size.

FOX
Market Capitalization: ~$58 Billion
Value of assets to be sold ~$25Billion - $30 Billion

Potential Buyers:

Disney
Market Capitalization: ~$160 Billion


Comcast/Universal
Market Capitalization: ~$169 Billion


Verizon
Market Capitalization: ~$185 Billion


Sony
Market Capitalization: ~$48 Billion
Sony once was worth as low as $14 Billion. They've rebounded pretty well, but are nowhere near what they once were.

for comparisons sake:

Time Warner
Market Capitalization: ~$69 Billion
at&t
Market Capitalization: ~$212 Billion

Viacom
Market Capitalization: ~$11 Billion


Netflix
Market Capitalization: ~$84 Billion

Amazon
Market Capitalization: ~$544 Billion

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Old 11-18-2017, 09:11 PM   #607
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

Good Lord Amazon lol

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Old 11-18-2017, 09:30 PM   #608
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

I could have sworn I read that fox can't sell marvel properties even if they wanted too.

Edit: this idiot kind of explains it but I don't trust his knowledge.

https://youtu.be/qQZKzW37fZo

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Old 11-18-2017, 09:34 PM   #609
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by MahvelBaby! View Post
I could have sworn I read that fox can't sell marvel properties even if they wanted too.

Edit: this idiot kind of explains it but I don't trust his knowledge.

https://youtu.be/qQZKzW37fZo
I guess they can sell them but with the same restrictions that they are currently subject to, which is why it makes more sense selling to Disney who wouldn't face those limitations and would have greater use for those properties.

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Old 11-18-2017, 09:50 PM   #610
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by MahvelBaby! View Post
I could have sworn I read that fox can't sell marvel properties even if they wanted too.

Edit: this idiot kind of explains it but I don't trust his knowledge.

https://youtu.be/qQZKzW37fZo
This guy does a lot of clickbait and fake news videos, so IMHO not very trustworthy.

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Old 11-18-2017, 10:18 PM   #611
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

I don’t think they are transferable either, but if they were I think they would be subject to the same restrictions, a movie every “x” many years or they would revert to Disney/Marvel Studios anyways, little to no cut of merch $$$, etc.

The fact that as far as we know Disney doesn’t even sound like it’s remotely worried from any leaked insiders makes me think as well.

Anyway, one way or the other, we are all going to find out soon enough.

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Old 11-18-2017, 10:42 PM   #612
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by MahvelBaby! View Post
Good Lord Amazon lol
Yeah, that sort of highlights why the Entertainment companies want to scale up as much as they do. Even Disney, a titan of that industry pales in comparison to the titans of tech. If tech wanted to take over the Entertainment industry, they could without blinking. What is happening though, is some of them are trying to do that by building up their own content (primarily Amazon).

To add even more ridiculousness to that:

Google: ~$714 Billion

Microsoft: ~$635 Billion

Apple: ~$874 Billion

Each are sitting on a stock pile of cash over $100 billion.

The Entertainment industry is in a real conundrum. It is so volatile and there isn't much room for diversification or growth at this point for them. Consolidation is really the only option they have. Iger saw through this years ago when he made his moves on Marvel and LucasFilm, and now this streaming service they are launching. Got to give him props for not only recognizing that, but acting on it as well.


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This guy does a lot of clickbait and fake news videos, so IMHO not very trustworthy.
CBC are very hit or miss. He also doesn't always do a very good job of explaining things. Often just glossing over and reporting what he thinks things mean or how he wants things to go. He and the rest of his crew are very surface level detail oriented.

When it comes to explaining anything industry related in a video, I prefer Midnight's Edge.

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Old 11-18-2017, 11:21 PM   #613
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by MahvelBaby! View Post
Good Lord Amazon lol
Reason AMZN is so high is because their multiple is so high. Same with NFLX and TSLA. The market sees these as "growth" companies and not "value" companies like DIS or CMCSA. Tech companies also tend to trade at higher multiples than traditional companies. That's part of the reason DIS and CMCSA want to get in that train, along with the other obvious needs that have been discussed before.

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Originally Posted by MahvelBaby! View Post
I could have sworn I read that fox can't sell marvel properties even if they wanted too.

Edit: this idiot kind of explains it but I don't trust his knowledge.

https://youtu.be/qQZKzW37fZo
I knew exactly who it was before clicking the link. You are right. He's an idiot. It's the same dude that keeps saying Universal is loaning out Hulk to Disney and collecting loaning money. His spurious comments are a disservice to fans who unfortunately listen to him.

Fox can sell it to whoever they want. They will look for the best bid. I'm 99.9% certain the rights are transferable. Without repeating what I have said before ad nauseam, the theme park rights transferred over to Comcast and Deadpool was transferred from New Line to Fox. Fantastic Four most likely was a license transfer and then renewal.

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Old Yesterday, 12:07 AM   #614
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by ADollarADay View Post
Fox can sell it to whoever they want. They will look for the best bid. I'm 99.9% certain the rights are transferable. Without repeating what I have said before ad nauseam, the theme park rights transferred over to Comcast and Deadpool was transferred from New Line to Fox. Fantastic Four most likely was a license transfer and then renewal.
If Fox can do this (so then the company though bought it could own use a license to make a film they would get little to no merch dollars from, not to mention they would have to put out a film every so many years or they would lose it) then I do have to wonder why they didn’t try to sell the Daredevil rights and make at least some money off of it once their movie plans fell apart instead of letting it simply revert back.

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Old Yesterday, 12:11 AM   #615
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by Tymminator View Post
If Fox can do this (so then the company though bought it could own use a license to make a film they would get little to no merch dollars from, not to mention they would have to put out a film every so many years or they would lose it) then I do have to wonder why they didn’t try to sell the Daredevil rights and make at least some money off of it once their movie plans fell apart instead of letting it simply revert back.
The deadline was too close for any studio to make a Daredevil film.

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Old Yesterday, 12:16 AM   #616
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
The deadline was too close for any studio to make a Daredevil film.
So then Fox’s limits would be theirs with no grace time, like they would have to start fairly soon for a new F4 as well if they bought it now.

For various reasons, I don’t buy it. Maybe it it, maybe it’s not but I don’t think so.

One way or the other, we will find out.

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Old Yesterday, 12:20 AM   #617
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by Tymminator View Post
So then Fox’s limits would be theirs with no grace time, like they would have to start fairly soon for a new F4 as well if they bought it now.

For various reasons, I don’t buy it. Maybe it it, maybe it’s not but I don’t think so.

One way or the other, we will find out.
They have 6 years 11 months from the release of the last movie to start production on another movie. That's as per the 2015 movie that started on the bottom of the 9th. That means they have until July 2021 to start production of a new FF movie. XMen, of course, has a shorter time window.

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Old Yesterday, 12:27 AM   #618
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by ADollarADay View Post
They have 6 years 11 months from the release of the last movie to start production on another movie. That's as per the 2015 movie that started on the bottom of the 9th. That means they have until July 2021 to start production of a new FF movie. XMen, of course, has a shorter time window.
That’s what I figured about.

And that sounds like a lot of time, and it is, if that’s the only thing you are working on and if you have a strong idea of how to go about it. The 2015 movie they crapped out real fast, but at the same time they didn’t just get it, they had it for several years before that, had stalls, then they tried to get a plan then crapped it out. New buyer would have to start cold pretty fast. It’s not always that easy to get a movie going if you have no idea how you should go about it.


For X-Men I knew is was shorter but couldn’t peg exactly what, maybe 4-5 years. I don’t know.

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Old Yesterday, 12:49 AM   #619
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bang View Post
A basic breakdown of the players involved in trying to buyout parts of Fox:

There are a lot more factors that play into a companies' solvency when trying to acquire another company of similar scale, but these figures should give you an idea of their overall current size.

FOX
Market Capitalization: ~$58 Billion
Value of assets to be sold ~$25Billion - $30 Billion

Potential Buyers:

Disney
Market Capitalization: ~$160 Billion


Comcast/Universal
Market Capitalization: ~$169 Billion


Verizon
Market Capitalization: ~$185 Billion


Sony
Market Capitalization: ~$48 Billion
Sony once was worth as low as $14 Billion. They've rebounded pretty well, but are nowhere near what they once were.

for comparisons sake:

Time Warner
Market Capitalization: ~$69 Billion
at&t
Market Capitalization: ~$212 Billion

Viacom
Market Capitalization: ~$11 Billion


Netflix
Market Capitalization: ~$84 Billion

Amazon
Market Capitalization: ~$544 Billion
Quote:
Originally Posted by Big Bang View Post
Yeah, that sort of highlights why the Entertainment companies want to scale up as much as they do. Even Disney, a titan of that industry pales in comparison to the titans of tech. If tech wanted to take over the Entertainment industry, they could without blinking. What is happening though, is some of them are trying to do that by building up their own content (primarily Amazon).

To add even more ridiculousness to that:

Google: ~$714 Billion

Microsoft: ~$635 Billion

Apple: ~$874 Billion

Each are sitting on a stock pile of cash over $100 billion.

The Entertainment industry is in a real conundrum. It is so volatile and there isn't much room for diversification or growth at this point for them. Consolidation is really the only option they have. Iger saw through this years ago when he made his moves on Marvel and LucasFilm, and now this streaming service they are launching. Got to give him props for not only recognizing that, but acting on it as well.
Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Apple are going to end up owning everything.

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Old Yesterday, 07:22 AM   #620
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by ADollarADay View Post

Fox can sell it to whoever they want. They will look for the best bid. I'm 99.9% certain the rights are transferable. Without repeating what I have said before ad nauseam, the theme park rights transferred over to Comcast and Deadpool was transferred from New Line to Fox. Fantastic Four most likely was a license transfer and then renewal.
The thing with Deadpool is Marvel was probably involved. The transfer happened prior to Disney's purchase of Marvel, so Marvel probably had no problem with it and signed off on the deal.

And while most people seem to believe Deadpool is separate from the X-Men, his inclusion in Wolverine and Colossus' inclusion in Deadpool leads me to believe that when Marvel OK'd the transfer to Fox, they rolled him into the X-Men rights.

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Old Yesterday, 08:14 AM   #621
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by Willie Lumpkin View Post
The thing with Deadpool is Marvel was probably involved. The transfer happened prior to Disney's purchase of Marvel, so Marvel probably had no problem with it and signed off on the deal.

And while most people seem to believe Deadpool is separate from the X-Men, his inclusion in Wolverine and Colossus' inclusion in Deadpool leads me to believe that when Marvel OK'd the transfer to Fox, they rolled him into the X-Men rights.
U are absolutely right. All that happened back when FOX and Marvel had a great cooperative relationship. It made sense to package him with the Xgroups.

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Old Yesterday, 09:10 AM   #622
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

I have no doubt the X-Men and FF rights will move to whichever entity purchases 21st Century Fox Studios. But I doubt those rights can be transferred from 21st Century Fox to another entity, say Sony Pictures, without the Mouse's approval.

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Old Yesterday, 09:28 AM   #623
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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I have no doubt the X-Men and FF rights will move to whichever entity purchases 21st Century Fox Studios. But I doubt those rights can be transferred from 21st Century Fox to another entity, say Sony Pictures, without the Mouse's approval.

I agree, and then if they start breaking up components, that could complicate things.

And at the very least, regardless of the exact wording in the contract, Disney lawyers can almost certainly make things difficult enough that other studios simply won't want to deal with that complication.

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Old Yesterday, 10:10 AM   #624
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Default Re: Disney in talks to buy Fox: X-Men Homecoming?

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Originally Posted by Willie Lumpkin View Post
The thing with Deadpool is Marvel was probably involved. The transfer happened prior to Disney's purchase of Marvel, so Marvel probably had no problem with it and signed off on the deal.

And while most people seem to believe Deadpool is separate from the X-Men, his inclusion in Wolverine and Colossus' inclusion in Deadpool leads me to believe that when Marvel OK'd the transfer to Fox, they rolled him into the X-Men rights.

Actually if I remember right, Fox got Deadpool from Newline in a turnaround deal that was before Disney got involved.

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