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View Poll Results: How much WORLWIDE?
800+ miliion WORLWIDE 4 4.12%
700+ m 4 4.12%
600+ m 17 17.53%
500+ m 26 26.80%
400+ m 21 21.65%
300+ m 17 17.53%
200+ m 5 5.15%
under 200 m WORLDWIDE 3 3.09%
Voters: 97. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 04-16-2014, 08:38 AM   #176
Son of Coul
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

Avatar's gonna tank. Unknown property with cartoony CG and a derivative story? Gimme a break. The GA knows nothing about it - it's an unheard-of, untested property. How are they supposed to know to go see something they've never heard of before? What are they, functional human beings or something?

Wait, what thread are we in?

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Old 04-16-2014, 07:26 PM   #177
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

over the last couple of days I witnessed something strange. since I'm the go to guy when it comes to comics, movies and combinations of those, I heard the question 'when does guardians of the galaxy come out?' a lot. and when I say a lot, I mean A LOT! today I was asked about this movie 3 times (co-worker, guy at my university and my boss), probably about 20 times from various friends and relatives over the last week (and a very small percentage of them usually care about Marvel movies at all). when I watched TWS for the third time last thursday, I went with a group of friends. after the movie we went for a drink and I was fully prepared to talk about them about what happend in the movie, who the twin were etc. etc. our talk started that way, but 5 minutes in, the first friend asked about the release date for gotg and we spent the rest of the evening talking about the gotg and especially rocket.
yesterday I was at the shopping mall and heard a complete stranger (female, approx. 50 years old) singing 'hooked on a feeling'. this can't be coincidence.

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Old 04-16-2014, 10:31 PM   #178
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by R_Hythlodeus View Post
over the last couple of days I witnessed something strange. since I'm the go to guy when it comes to comics, movies and combinations of those, I heard the question 'when does guardians of the galaxy come out?' a lot. and when I say a lot, I mean A LOT! today I was asked about this movie 3 times (co-worker, guy at my university and my boss), probably about 20 times from various friends and relatives over the last week (and a very small percentage of them usually care about Marvel movies at all). when I watched TWS for the third time last thursday, I went with a group of friends. after the movie we went for a drink and I was fully prepared to talk about them about what happend in the movie, who the twin were etc. etc. our talk started that way, but 5 minutes in, the first friend asked about the release date for gotg and we spent the rest of the evening talking about the gotg and especially rocket.
yesterday I was at the shopping mall and heard a complete stranger (female, approx. 50 years old) singing 'hooked on a feeling'. this can't be coincidence.
Thanks to the trailer, I bought the mp3 of Hooked on a Feeling. Maybe it could be the breakout Hangover of this year.

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Old 04-16-2014, 11:08 PM   #179
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Guardians of the Galaxy is just not well known enough to gross over 400 million and the release date is not really strong. If this was being released in May, my predictions would have been higher. And its not like the lead characters of GOTG already appeared in The Avengers. Thor appeared in The Avengers and his post-Avengers film got 206 million in the U.S. I don't see GOTG it being close to the Dark World's domestic gross.

You using Star Trek '09's inability to break $400 M as proof that Guardians can't do it completely disregards that A) Star Trek is a weak foreign property. B) Paramount doesn't have the greatest foreign track record. C) Your filtering your view of ST '09 through American/ Western perceptions.

No one is saying that GoTG is going to match that films $257 M domestic. But it would be pretty damn hard to imagine a scenario where it doesn't trounce that films $127 M foreign. Even Disney bombs The Lone Ranger and John Carter far exceeded Star Trek's take. Disney is just a stronger foreign presence as a studio than Paramount. The absolute foreign floor for this film is $200 M.


The film has way too high of a social media index, way too high of a youtube view, way too much promotion going into it, to only gross your claimed $100 M domestic. That's just not happening. Despite your feelings, this trailer has not been met with the universal "meh" feeling that say, Green Lantern was.

I'm not saying under $400 M is impossible, but I think your predicted $290 is impossible. The low end for this will be $350 M.

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Old 04-17-2014, 02:13 AM   #180
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

290 million worldwide? lol do me a favour. I think this will be in the same ball park as the first Thor and Iron Man. Around 450-550 million worldwide.

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Old 04-17-2014, 04:47 AM   #181
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by Son of Coul View Post
Avatar's gonna tank. Unknown property with cartoony CG and a derivative story? Gimme a break. The GA knows nothing about it - it's an unheard-of, untested property. How are they supposed to know to go see something they've never heard of before? What are they, functional human beings or something?

Wait, what thread are we in?
Avatar is not the same case though. Its an original material, was released in the holidays and directed by well-profiled director.

If James Cameron is directing this film, of course I would give a higher prediction but James Gunn? This is not one of those films where people go see a film because of a well-known director.

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Old 04-17-2014, 06:04 AM   #182
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

Nope, one of those films that people go see because they believe in Marvel Studios.

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Old 04-17-2014, 06:17 AM   #183
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

I predict 650 million worldwide.

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Old 04-17-2014, 06:29 AM   #184
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
Ultimately, the budget will determine what's a success for GoTG. As long as they kept the budget in the $150 M range, it should be able to make money back and prove sequel worthy.

I still say Rise of the Planet of the Apes is a great example of what a successful GoTG film would gross. That film came out in early August of 2011, and grossed $176 M DOM and $305 M foreign. Assuming Guardians budget is $170 M or less, that would be qualified as a big success.

There's a danger of setting ourselves up for disappointment with $600 M predictions. It's the same ball game as Thor: The Dark World, with last years $800-$1 B predictions, and the disappointment that followed when the film "underperformed." If Guardians of the Galaxy can match the first Thor film, Disney should be giddy.
Thor 2 under performed because it was ****, it has a 56% score among top critics, the worst of all MCU films by a heft margin I think. If GoTG is that bad it will under perform as well, but there's no reason to expect it to be awful.

However, the jokes in the preview were really bad, so who knows. I preferred the Thor 2 after-the-credits scene.

It looks like a beautiful movie though. I appreciate that Marvel is finally trying on the cinematography front.

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Old 04-17-2014, 06:33 AM   #185
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
I don't think a disaster of this proportion is possible given the strength of the Marvel brand.

Marvel under Disney is currently averaging nearly $1 Billion a film (Avengers to present.) I have no doubts Guardians of the Galaxy is going to be the lowest grossing Disney/ Marvel film thus far, but that doesn't mean it's going to be a Green Lantern.

Your Star Trek comparison is off in that Star Trek is a notoriously weak brand abroad, and had no 3-D advantage. Paramount also has a poor track record abroad. A well reviewed Star Trek: Into Darkness grossed roughly the same as a poorly reviewed, no name propertly like John Carter in foreign markets.

You're basically predicting another JC. The Marvel Studios brand alone guarantees that this movie will do 25-30% better than John Carter's $280 M ww. Some people will show up simply because this is Marvel Studios, and it's attached to the Avengers in some way.

I think the floor for this film, assuming a typical Marvel Studios tomato meter of 75%ish, is $150 M domestic / $225 M foreign. The ceiling is probably $200 Domestic/ $300 M foreign, unless it hits some sort of pop culture nerve.
I have a somewhat different interpretation of Green Lantern.

My interpretation: If a comic book space opera that is that bad could gross 220 million worldwide, imagine what a good comic book space opera could gross?

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Old 04-17-2014, 11:38 PM   #186
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by DA_Champion View Post
I have a somewhat different interpretation of Green Lantern.

My interpretation: If a comic book space opera that is that bad could gross 220 million worldwide, imagine what a good comic book space opera could gross?
True. I'm still not sure it will match Thor: The Dark World or Captain America: The First Avenger, but Thor 1 should be well in reach, with Iron Man 1 numbers being a possible high end.

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Old Yesterday, 08:27 AM   #187
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Default Re: Early Guardians of the Galaxy Box Office Prediction Thread

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Originally Posted by psylockolussus View Post
Avatar is not the same case though. Its an original material, was released in the holidays and directed by well-profiled director.

If James Cameron is directing this film, of course I would give a higher prediction but James Gunn? This is not one of those films where people go see a film because of a well-known director.
GOTG has the Marvel logo up in front. Outside of the US, Marvel is more famous than someone named James Cameron.

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