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Old 07-28-2014, 11:45 AM   #376
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Yet the biggest disadvantage stuck around. Coincidentally, he happens to be one of the most important people. The director.
He's actually a massive advantage. Especially if you pool all the many people that enjoy the film. He obviously did something right. Not that many cbms perform as MOS did, some don't even do that in their sequels.

The thing is, there are people that would argue for MOS' impact and overall effectiveness. And there are people that will argue against it. At some point things like what happened this past weekend(interms of reception) will lend credence to one side over the other.
Of course you will have people claiming it's more that batman has shown up and not so much the accomplishments of the producers or MOS, but that begs the question of just what was it exactly that got people excited about TDK, the producers and begins or.....the promise of a certain someone?

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Old 07-28-2014, 12:17 PM   #377
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

I don't expect any negative feelings people have to hurt the numbers. MoS got some negative reviews and some fans didn't quite like it for the fact that it was so much different than what they expected. I don't think there will be many people skipping BvS because they didn't like MoS.

1. They know what to expect from this universe now.
2. Having said that and understanding this universe, to introduce Batman and other superheros will be too much for people to resist.

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Old 07-28-2014, 02:19 PM   #378
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He's actually a massive advantage. Especially if you pool all the many people that enjoy the film. He obviously did something right. Not that many cbms perform as MOS did, some don't even do that in their sequels.

The thing is, there are people that would argue for MOS' impact and overall effectiveness. And there are people that will argue against it. At some point things like what happened this past weekend(interms of reception) will lend credence to one side over the other.
Of course you will have people claiming it's more that batman has shown up and not so much the accomplishments of the producers or MOS, but that begs the question of just what was it exactly that got people excited about TDK, the producers and begins or.....the promise of a certain someone?
We're in a superhero boom. Especially with the MCU in full swing, the average superhero box office has skyrocketed. Making 650M is average as far as I'm concerned when you have terrible CBMs like Thor 2 and IM2 (IMO) making the same ballpark range of money. Give it the excuse of being an "origin" movie but a lot of people expected more from Snyder when dealing with the ultimate superhero.

I want BVS to make over 1B just like anyone else, I just don't see it happening with split reviews. If the movie is well received then sure, sky's the limit. I just don't have the confidence in Snyder or the brand new Batman to pull that off.

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Old 07-28-2014, 03:01 PM   #379
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We're in a superhero boom. Especially with the MCU in full swing, the average superhero box office has skyrocketed. Making 650M is average as far as I'm concerned when you have terrible CBMs like Thor 2 and IM2 (IMO) making the same ballpark range of money. Give it the excuse of being an "origin" movie but a lot of people expected more from Snyder when dealing with the ultimate superhero.

I want BVS to make over 1B just like anyone else, I just don't see it happening with split reviews. If the movie is well received then sure, sky's the limit. I just don't have the confidence in Snyder or the brand new Batman to pull that off.
It's hardly an excuse when it's been proven time and again(with batman/and even the mcu). Further, simply being in a super hero boom doesn't automatically mean big things for any such superhero movie, it's about branding(the marvel brand for example). Films still have to deal with what they have to deal with and hardly all of them are automatic hits. Secondly, being in a 'boom' also has an adverse effect on impact. You can't be 'Toy Story' part one in the summer of 2014 it's a different time. You can't be the film to revolutionize 3D films in the way you could prior to 2009..etc

Thirdly, Singer proved just how much name power Superman had with is film. That excuse is actually the one that won't fly any more.

Lastly, I was actually talking about Domestic numbers. When it comes to WW numbers, MOS still ranks pretty high given the great majority of cbms and even most sequels. When it comes down to domestic(the thing people won't shut up about when it comes to the TF films), well it's the highest grossing film this year thus far. Origin or not that should count for something.

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Old 07-28-2014, 03:44 PM   #380
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ok imma try to give my conservative (pessimistic?) estimates: $700M (domestic+ world wide)

...thats IF the movie is a total borefest.

it would probably be a lower guestimate but Supes + Bats + Wondy in one live action movie is too much for the general public to ignore, they WILL go and see it if only just for the novelty that.

if the movie is actually good (like something to the tune of CA: The Winter Soldier type) then yeah $1B is easy-peasy for BvS

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Old 07-28-2014, 03:54 PM   #381
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It's hardly an excuse when it's been proven time and again(with batman/and even the mcu). Further, simply being in a super hero boom doesn't automatically mean big things for any such superhero movie, it's about branding(the marvel brand for example). Films still have to deal with what they have to deal with and hardly all of them are automatic hits. Secondly, being in a 'boom' also has an adverse effect on impact. You can't be 'Toy Story' part one in the summer of 2014 it's a different time. You can't be the film to revolutionize 3D films in the way you could prior to 2009..etc

Thirdly, Singer proved just how much name power Superman had with is film. That excuse is actually the one that won't fly any more.

Lastly, I was actually talking about Domestic numbers. When it comes to WW numbers, MOS still ranks pretty high given the great majority of cbms and even most sequels. When it comes down to domestic(the thing people won't shut up about when it comes to the TF films), well it's the highest grossing film this year thus far. Origin or not that should count for something.
So what's your WW number? 700, 800, 900, 1B? 1B+?

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:29 PM   #382
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

1 billion WW is the floor for this flick.

if it's under 1 billion, WB is gonna be justifiably pissed.

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:30 PM   #383
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The public doesn't care enough about directors for them to have a negative effect on box office.

Sure, slapping "Nolan" or "Spielberg" can have a positive effect, but Zack Snyder, even though I love his films, is not a big enough name to effect things one way or the other.

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:30 PM   #384
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$800m is the absolute floor for this, and that's only if the movie is a debacle. If it's merely so-so - on par with MoS say - a billion is probably happening. If it's as good as TWS, it could give The Avengers a run for its money.

At this point I'm predicting1.2b

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:49 PM   #385
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So what's your WW number? 700, 800, 900, 1B? 1B+?
I'd say 800 would be my floor for a straight up MOS sequel of the same quality as it's predecessor. 1 Billion is what I'm seeing for this. If it's a TDK like phenomenon, I'm thinking 1.3-5

Looking at what's been going on with the TF films and the power of even event novelty, I can't see this making any less than a billion out right. Unless WB drops the ball on the release date(again).

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:54 PM   #386
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CBM to hit 1B:

The Dark Knight- Arguably the best CBM of all time. Heath Ledger's death.
The Avengers- 6 year build up. Payoff of Marvel cinematic universe. Revolutionary.
The Dark Knight Rises- Sequel to best CBM of all time. Excellent marketing, conclusion to Nolan's trilogy.
Iron Man 3- Avengers spinoff to highest grossing CBM of all time, Iron Man was on top of the world. RDJ.

Why is 1B considered a "lock" just because it's Batman and Superman. This isn't Nolan's Batman, this is Snyder's. I don't see that justifying this movie joining the company of what 4 other movies have only been able to accomplish. The Avengers 2 is the only movie worthy and deserving of being a lock for 1B as far as I'm concerned. I'm not a Marvel fanboy, I'm just trying to be grounded. As far as a lock, I'd say this movie is at 750M. No, that doesn't mean I think this movie will make 750M WW, I'm saying it definitely will not make less than that. I'm predicting around 850-900M.

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:55 PM   #387
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

This one will be a billionaire! That's for sure!

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Old 07-28-2014, 04:58 PM   #388
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

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$800m is the absolute floor for this, and that's only if the movie is a debacle. If it's merely so-so - on par with MoS say - a billion is probably happening. If it's as good as TWS, it could give The Avengers a run for its money.

At this point I'm predicting1.2b
Yep ...

Even in the last year, international markets are getting crazy. When X-Men is making nearly 500 million overseas you know things are changing. 500 million is more than any previous film in the series did WORLDWIDE. Transformers 4 is making 300 million + in China alone for likely 1.2+ billion (and that film is GARBAGE) Avengers 2 is going to push the limits towards 1.8 to 2 billion IMO.

By 2016 with likely higher ticket prices and still having 3D, it's going to be even crazier. WB will be STUNNED if this doesn't make 1 billion.

I'd guess 1.1-1.2 billion for now, but I could see it making more, and I think the absolute worst case scenario floor is probably closer to 900 million.

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Old 07-28-2014, 05:05 PM   #389
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

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CBM to hit 1B:

The Dark Knight- Arguably the best CBM of all time. Heath Ledger's death.
The Avengers- 6 year build up. Payoff of Marvel cinematic universe. Revolutionary.
The Dark Knight Rises- Sequel to best CBM of all time. Excellent marketing, conclusion to Nolan's trilogy.
Iron Man 3- Avengers spinoff to highest grossing CBM of all time, Iron Man was on top of the world. RDJ.

Why is 1B considered a "lock" just because it's Batman and Superman. This isn't Nolan's Batman, this is Snyder's. I don't see that justifying this movie joining the company of what 4 other movies have only been able to accomplish. The Avengers 2 is the only movie worthy and deserving of being a lock for 1B as far as I'm concerned. I'm not a Marvel fanboy, I'm just trying to be grounded. As far as a lock, I'd say this movie is at 750M. No, that doesn't mean I think this movie will make 750M WW, I'm saying it definitely will not make less than that. I'm predicting around 850-900M.
The list you make is well structured and reasoned, however, one factor in consideration for DoJ joining that list, Snyder or no Snyder, Superman meets Batman on screen for the first cinematic time, DC universe expansion, there, if that doesn't get each of us off our arse and into a cinema to make it hit a billion then we don't deserve these films to succeed, we'll wake up and think and complain why WB are not taking forward the universe and it will partly be our fault, we had the chance and did not make it. Base minimum is $850m this film will make, the JL film even more, both will make a fortune, why ? because collectively we believe in what they are doing and they will deliver films, I and many others have waited years for.

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Old 07-28-2014, 05:12 PM   #390
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Yea, poor humorless dialogue or iffy acting from Gadot or illogical plotting won't mean a damn thing in China or Korea or Brazil. That moneys in the bag. Already counted by WB.

And personally I'll be there opening weekend even if the reviews are Transformers-esque. With wife and friends in tow. Normally you couldn't pay me to see a movie as bad as TF. For fans of these characters, the movie is more or less critic proof. A must see. Hence the 800m floor.

If the movie is good, the repeat viewing from discriminating folks in the U.S. will push it past a billion ww with ease. I'll happily do my part.

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Old 07-28-2014, 05:15 PM   #391
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The list you make is well structured and reasoned, however, one factor in consideration for DoJ joining that list, Snyder or no Snyder, Superman meets Batman on screen for the first cinematic time, DC universe expansion, there, if that doesn't get each of us off our arse and into a cinema to make it hit a billion then we don't deserve these films to succeed, we'll wake up and think and complain why WB are not taking forward the universe and it will partly be our fault, we had the chance and did not make it. Base minimum is $850m this film will make, the JL film even more, both will make a fortune, why ? because collectively we believe in what they are doing and they will deliver films, I and many others have waited years for.
People waited years to see Superman on the big screen throw a punch and have a real fight scene. That didn't bring in a billion, even with one of the most visually talented directors money can buy. It's more than just bringing them together on screen, it's what they do with them. I have zero confidence in Snyder after MOS. I fear he's going to replicate that same feeling in this movie for me.

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Old 07-28-2014, 05:19 PM   #392
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People waited years to see Superman on the big screen throw a punch and have a real fight scene. That didn't bring in a billion, even with one of the most visually talented directors money can buy. It's more than just bringing them together on screen, it's what they do with them. I have zero confidence in Snyder after MOS. I fear he's going to replicate that same feeling in this movie for me.
Fair enough, personally I loved MOS and what's ahead for us, I see your point though, there has to be substance and quality, otherwise, what's the point ? If you recycle again and again, you get Transformers films. If that **** can make $1B time after time, imagine what something that someone cares about and values can make.

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Old 07-29-2014, 08:47 AM   #393
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This may sound crazy but BvS may even reach 2 billion or about 1.7 billion but who knows? It could even turn out to be a flop and earn as low as 600m

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Old 07-29-2014, 08:50 AM   #394
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

It won't earn less than MOS. That is absolutely asinine to think so.

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Old 07-29-2014, 09:53 AM   #395
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It's not going to be as stratospheric or as catastrophic as people seem to be wagering, like everything else it'll be somewhere in the middle. I'd predict around $1.2-$1.4b

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Old 07-29-2014, 10:49 AM   #396
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For the first time ever in box office history, three of the most iconic, identifiable, and legendary comic book superheroes of all-time will be featured into one film. I don't know how you can low ball it's box office potential. It really depends also on the run-time of the movie. If its over 2 hrs. 30 mins. -- It would be tough to break The Avengers OW record.

I think it will set the OW record but not surpass The Avengers numbers after that. At this point based on all the buzz BvS has going for it and using a multiplier similar to Man of Steel, I would say...

Opening Weekend: $220 mil
Domestic: $590 mil
Overseas: $750 mil

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Old 07-29-2014, 10:57 AM   #397
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

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CBM to hit 1B:

The Dark Knight- Arguably the best CBM of all time. Heath Ledger's death.
The Avengers- 6 year build up. Payoff of Marvel cinematic universe. Revolutionary.
The Dark Knight Rises- Sequel to best CBM of all time. Excellent marketing, conclusion to Nolan's trilogy.
Iron Man 3- Avengers spinoff to highest grossing CBM of all time, Iron Man was on top of the world. RDJ.

Why is 1B considered a "lock" just because it's Batman and Superman. This isn't Nolan's Batman, this is Snyder's. I don't see that justifying this movie joining the company of what 4 other movies have only been able to accomplish. The Avengers 2 is the only movie worthy and deserving of being a lock for 1B as far as I'm concerned. I'm not a Marvel fanboy, I'm just trying to be grounded. As far as a lock, I'd say this movie is at 750M. No, that doesn't mean I think this movie will make 750M WW, I'm saying it definitely will not make less than that. I'm predicting around 850-900M.
Good post, JOE. Fair, insightful and very reasonable. IMO, I think BvS's floor is around $900M.

Even with the onslaught of hype surrounding MoS months before release, people were still in a wait and see approach. I had MoS pegged at $700 mil. It got close but I never expected a billion from MoS. All things considered with Superman on the bigscreen that we won't get into, I think many fans overrated the expectations. To me, MoS was right in its own ballpark.

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Old 07-29-2014, 11:16 AM   #398
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Good post, JOE. Fair, insightful and very reasonable. IMO, I think BvS's floor is around $900M.

Even with the onslaught of hype surrounding MoS months before release, people were still in a wait and see approach. I had MoS pegged at $700 mil. It got close but I never expected a billion from MoS. All things considered with Superman on the bigscreen that we won't get into, I think many fans overrated the expectations. To me, MoS was right in its own ballpark.
Typically predictions are gathered on the assumption it hits its fullest potential. With MOS doing just under 700 million with a divided reaction, I think a bonafide crowd pleaser would've easily done 800+. Which would've been absolutely fantastic for a reboot.

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Old 07-29-2014, 11:30 AM   #399
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Typically predictions are gathered on the assumption it hits its fullest potential. With MOS doing just under 700 million with a divided reaction, I think a bonafide crowd pleaser would've easily done 800+. Which would've been absolutely fantastic for a reboot.
I think in a now post-Marvel world, what hurt Man of Steel (more-so with word of mouth) other than the divisive reviews and the competition was the lack of end credits to hype what's next.

Not only did Man of Steel end without a post-credits scene (as most fans in the superhero audience mainly look forward to most nowadays thanks to the Marvel model) but they didn't even end on a tease for what or who was next (Batman Begins= Joker calling card, etc.)

I saw Man of Steel a good amount of times in the theaters and almost every time, there were a great handful of people anticipating end credit scenes. Every time I was like "Dude, no end credits. Save your time."

It's not an excuse by any means, but it was always in the back of my mind how numbers could totally spike in these movies because the audience is thirsty to know what's coming next and MoS didn't give the audience that pleasure.

In a nutshell though, even with the bad reviews and the second week drop, I think Man of Steel stabilized and recovered to a nice number WW. It could have been much, much worse but for what it's worth, $668 WW, in the face of a divisive outing, is still a nice overall number for a Supes reboot.

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Old 07-29-2014, 11:36 AM   #400
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Default Re: Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction

I predict slightly above 1 Billion, i doubt Avengers numbers, since i doubt critics will be on Zack Snyder's side, probably for a good reason, around what the last Batman films have made or a bit more than that sounds reasonable to me.

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