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View Poll Results: What do YOU think Thor Dark World will do?
500 Million 8 7.08%
550 Million 10 8.85%
600 Million 10 8.85%
650 Million 10 8.85%
700 Million 17 15.04%
750 Million 16 14.16%
800 Million 22 19.47%
850 Million 8 7.08%
900 Million 3 2.65%
950 Million 1 0.88%
1 Billion plus 8 7.08%
Voters: 113. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-07-2013, 02:01 AM   #551
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
So we're realistically looking at about 350-400 M foreign. Can't say I'm not disappointed. I was hoping (perhaps unrealistically) That The Dark World could double Thor's foreign gross based on the strength of The Avengers.

I worry that we might be looking at the $200 M budget equivalent of phase 1, with Iron Man being home run, Thor being a modest hit, Cap barely making it, and Guardians of the Galaxy providing us with an underperformer.
More like $400-450m. Depending on how it does in China and Japan $475m is in play. I'm sticking to $450m.

Also I have no idea what the **** you're talking about with that second part. That makes no sense. $650-700m worldwide is not a modest hit.

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
I know a bit doomy and gloomy...but if Thor is only going to gross roughly 30% more than it's predecessor, then that says shows that Avengers success was almost all about Downey, and that the Marvel Studios brand hasn't grown that much.
I think you just don't know how to predict the boxoffice. I had Thor 2 pegged for $90m DOM debut, $250m total, and $450m OS total with a $700m WW gross months ago (after seeing what IM3 did) and those numbers appear to be dead on the money. When I predicted that I didn't think it meant the Avengers effect was all Downey and Marvel would soon be seeing diminishing returns. It's just a very good bump from the first Thor considering how it did. Iron Man 3 came directly after the Avengers with the most popular character from it. You can't expect Thor to double just because Iron Man did and think it's a disappointment because it didn't. The fact ****ing Thor is about to gross $700m WW is nothing short of astounding. I don't understand how in the world you can say the Marvel brand hasn't grown that much when Thor 2 is about to make nearly $250 more than the first film did...OUTSIDE THE SUMMER SEASON.

When Cap 2 "only" grosses $550-600m worldwide please don't say Marvel is doomed. :/


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Old 11-07-2013, 02:12 AM   #552
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
3-D doesn't account for a leap from 623 M to 1.214 B for Iron Man 2-3.


The increase actually averaged 27% in the markets Thor opened in last week. Holding to that 27% increase would mean after starring in a $1.5 B movie, with the 3-D boost and 5 1/2 years of inflation, Thor would still fail to match Iron Man 1's gross. Not terrible, but definitely not knocking it out of the park.


It doesn't exactly speak well to the impression Thor made on the general audience if only 35-40% of the people who saw Avengers show up for his next adventure. I can kind of understand that for Cap, but was hoping for a little more for Thor.
You really have no perspective for what you're talking about bro. If you think just because every movie Marvel makes isn't going to double its gross from the last means Marvel's brand hasn't grown that much or the Avengers effect isn't as strong as you thought then you had unrealistic expectations to begin with. Don't try and spin this as a bad thing just because you had no idea how to cap your expectations or properly attribute what effect the Avengers would have on certain Marvel films. What Avengers has done for Thor is great, and to in its own way is on par with what it did for IM3. Marvel took a $450m movie and turned it into a $700m one. That is in no way a disappointment or blight on Marvel's increased brand strength. It's a validation of it.


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Old 11-07-2013, 03:21 AM   #553
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

700m WW would be a very decent return for a November movie.

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Old 11-07-2013, 03:24 AM   #554
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by spider-neil View Post
700m WW would be a very decent return for a November movie.
Skyfall thinks it is nothing.

On a more serious note, $700m would be fantastic. Would mean either and early surge domestically, or some decent legs that make it last through Hunger Games insanity.

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Old 11-07-2013, 03:51 AM   #555
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Skyfall thinks it is nothing.

On a more serious note, $700m would be fantastic. Would mean either and early surge domestically, or some decent legs that make it last through Hunger Games insanity.

Opps! Forgot about HG.

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Old 11-07-2013, 09:06 AM   #556
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
So we're realistically looking at about 350-400 M foreign. Can't say I'm not disappointed. I was hoping (perhaps unrealistically) That The Dark World could double Thor's foreign gross based on the strength of The Avengers.

I worry that we might be looking at the $200 M budget equivalent of phase 1, with Iron Man being home run, Thor being a modest hit, Cap barely making it, and Guardians of the Galaxy providing us with an underperformer.
I'm not an expert by any means, but I think 350-400 is low-balling it for foreign gross. I think 400 is actually the lowest end. We will see.

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Old 11-07-2013, 10:02 AM   #557
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I think as long as this film sees a bump like Iron Man 3 enjoyed, all should be well on the Marvel universe. Now I don't expect an equal bump like Iron Man III got, but I think if the film sees a final domestic gross somewhere around $225 million plus, then it's safe to say the appetite is still there. If it does worse than the first one, then we have a different discussion to consider.

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Old 11-07-2013, 11:03 AM   #558
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
So we're realistically looking at about 350-400 M foreign. Can't say I'm not disappointed. I was hoping (perhaps unrealistically) That The Dark World could double Thor's foreign gross based on the strength of The Avengers.

I worry that we might be looking at the $200 M budget equivalent of phase 1, with Iron Man being home run, Thor being a modest hit, Cap barely making it, and Guardians of the Galaxy providing us with an underperformer.
Yeah, it's disappointing.

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:12 PM   #559
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Thor's numbers have not been disappointing so far. It's doing great overseas and it's looking to do good here in the states. People's problem is that they think anything under a billion is a failure now. I guess the studios are to blame over spending and overhyping box office numbers. Of course The Dark World wasn't going to match Iron Man 3's gross, Thor is not as popular as Iron Man. Still doesn't mean it's not doing great.

I'm predicting 83mil for it's domestic opening weekend by the way.

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:22 PM   #560
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Almost 20 million more than Thor.
I would be happy with that result .

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:35 PM   #561
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr. Dent View Post
You really have no perspective for what you're talking about bro. If you think just because every movie Marvel makes isn't going to double its gross from the last means Marvel's brand hasn't grown that much or the Avengers effect isn't as strong as you thought then you had unrealistic expectations to begin with. Don't try and spin this as a bad thing just because you had no idea how to cap your expectations or properly attribute what effect the Avengers would have on certain Marvel films. What Avengers has done for Thor is great, and to in its own way is on par with what it did for IM3. Marvel took a $450m movie and turned it into a $700m one. That is in no way a disappointment or blight on Marvel's increased brand strength. It's a validation of it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
Thor's numbers have not been disappointing so far. It's doing great overseas and it's looking to do good here in the states. People's problem is that they think anything under a billion is a failure now. I guess the studios are to blame over spending and overhyping box office numbers. Of course The Dark World wasn't going to match Iron Man 3's gross, Thor is not as popular as Iron Man. Still doesn't mean it's not doing great.

I'm predicting 83mil for it's domestic opening weekend by the way.

So everyone's just gonna ignore these post and continue calling the numbers "disappointing"?

Interesting....

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:43 PM   #562
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

From boxofficemojo:

Quote:
3. Thor: The Dark World (Nov. 8): A lot is riding on Thor: The Dark World; it's the second entry in Phase 2 of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, but the first one outside of the all-star Iron Man franchise. Thanks to goodwill from The Avengers, Iron Man 3 increased 31 percent over Iron Man 2—if Thor 2 has a similar bump over the first Thor ($181 million), it will earn $237 million. Unfortunately, Thor 2 doesn't add 3D (the first one was in 3D as well) and the marketing hasn't been quite as strong as the material for Iron Man 3. Still, a total north of $200 million is likely, and big foreign grosses (over $400 million) should be expected as well. Forecast: $220 million
So, I can see it topping at 650M WW. That's ok.

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:44 PM   #563
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

For some people,
If a film is not a monster at the box office right off the bat,
They percieive it as dissapointing.

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:45 PM   #564
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY View Post
Thor's numbers have not been disappointing so far. It's doing great overseas and it's looking to do good here in the states. People's problem is that they think anything under a billion is a failure now. I guess the studios are to blame over spending and overhyping box office numbers. Of course The Dark World wasn't going to match Iron Man 3's gross, Thor is not as popular as Iron Man. Still doesn't mean it's not doing great.

I'm predicting 83mil for it's domestic opening weekend by the way.
The standards from fans are too high now. I still find it hilarious people are dissappointed by Amazing Spider-man earning over 3/4 of a billion dollars.

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:48 PM   #565
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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The standards from fans are too high now. I still find it hilarious people are dissappointed by Amazing Spider-man earning over 3/4 of a billion dollars.
That's just absurd in my opinion, how could a 750M dollar film be a disappointment?

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Old 11-07-2013, 12:57 PM   #566
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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Originally Posted by Thor Odinson View Post
From boxofficemojo:



So, I can see it topping at 650M WW. That's ok.
I think their prediction is conservative.

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Old 11-07-2013, 01:15 PM   #567
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

The marketing for The Dark World in the states has been okay but it's nothing that lends itself to near record numbers or anything. Before I said I could see it hitting 100mil opening weekend but I'd be a little surprised if it does that now. I'm just not feeling that kind of opening weekend. 80-90mil sure I think that's going to happen but 100? Nah not feeling it, I've been wrong before though.

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Old 11-07-2013, 01:39 PM   #568
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I thought this would do 550-600 WW, so 700 is pretty impressive. Not sure what you guys were expecting...

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Old 11-07-2013, 02:03 PM   #569
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

This movie offers entertainment for the whole family, and its trending pretty big online, so I look for a very good opening here in the states, It will surprise many this weekend...

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Old 11-07-2013, 02:05 PM   #570
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

I see at least a couple hundred million here in the states. I dont know about overseas that market is always growing so its hard to tell. One thing it has going for it is no competition for two weeks. Marvel always knows when to open its films. After that Hunger Games will take over.

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Old 11-07-2013, 02:26 PM   #571
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

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I see at least a couple hundred million here in the states. I dont know about overseas that market is always growing so its hard to tell. One thing it has going for it is no competition for two weeks. Marvel always knows when to open its films. After that Hunger Games will take over.
I question releasing GOTG in August.
But , most of the time, your point is correct.

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Old 11-07-2013, 03:28 PM   #572
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Boxoffice.com has some Fandango info they are now reporting -

http://www.boxoffice.com/latest-news...ll-on-fandango

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Old 11-07-2013, 03:56 PM   #573
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Would you look at that, the biggest percent of the buyers are Chris Hemsworth fans, hmmm very interesting.

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Old 11-07-2013, 04:01 PM   #574
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
So we're realistically looking at about 350-400 M foreign. Can't say I'm not disappointed. I was hoping (perhaps unrealistically) That The Dark World could double Thor's foreign gross based on the strength of The Avengers.

I worry that we might be looking at the $200 M budget equivalent of phase 1, with Iron Man being home run, Thor being a modest hit, Cap barely making it, and Guardians of the Galaxy providing us with an underperformer.


Quote:
Originally Posted by KangConquers View Post
I know a bit doomy and gloomy...but if Thor is only going to gross roughly 30% more than it's predecessor, then that says shows that Avengers success was almost all about Downey, and that the Marvel Studios brand hasn't grown that much.
How do you make this leap?

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Old 11-07-2013, 04:03 PM   #575
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Default Re: Early Thor Darkworld box-office predictions

It also says it's ticket numbers are similar to FF6's and unlike FF6 it has almost zero competition this weekend and the next.

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