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Old 07-03-2018, 09:15 AM   #51
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Originally Posted by Zarex View Post
I'm thinking the vote will take place on the 27th. Iger put up the cash to top Kabletown by a not insignificant amount. The DOJ has given the deal its blessing. And Rupert has signed pricey rights deals with the WWE and the NFL to move away from scripted content into New Fox. An additional 6 month to 1 year delay keeps his TV production unit (mostly) on ice and costs him money he would prefer not to spend.

Further delay runs the risk that Iger will start looking around for other places to spend his money and won't be available to pick up the pieces if the DOJ gives the thumbs down to Roberts. There's also the risk that the FAANGs become even more entrenched in film & TV and the value of the RSNs, FX, FXX, and the FOX TV and film production units plummet before being rejected by the DOJ.

My guess is Rupert will try to push the vote through on the 27th regardless of Roberts' next move, but we shall see.

I think people like us are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it's the only thing standing between us and the day we've been dreaming of.

And some Fox shareholders are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it could mean more money in their pocket and an even bigger Disney bid.

And business news outlets are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it would be a huge news story, perhaps the biggest of 2018.

But despite the fixation on a new Comcast bid from all these different directions, the simple fact is Comcast is not giving any indication they intend to bid again.

I think it's over, but we've still got a little over three weeks to sweat it out.

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:16 AM   #52
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Received the updated proxy vote from DIS, FOX, and FOXA.

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:19 AM   #53
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Received the updated proxy vote from DIS, FOX, and FOXA.
If I were you, I'd print a copy, write in big, bold letters on it: "I VOTE WE TAKE THE $65 BILLION COMCAST OFFER" and post it on here just to mess with people.

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:27 AM   #54
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

I just want this to be over already. For Comcast that is

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:39 AM   #55
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Originally Posted by Willie Lumpkin View Post
I think people like us are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it's the only thing standing between us and the day we've been dreaming of.

And some Fox shareholders are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it could mean more money in their pocket and an even bigger Disney bid.

And business news outlets are fixated on a new Comcast bid - since it would be a huge news story, perhaps the biggest of 2018.

But despite the fixation on a new Comcast bid from all these different directions, the simple fact is Comcast is not giving any indication they intend to bid again.

I think it's over, but we've still got a little over three weeks to sweat it out.
Is it, though? From what I gather reading here is that, in addition to the shareholder meeting, the following need to take place:

- Divesting of RSNs (think it has to be within 90 days)
- Approval by federal judge of the settlement between Disney/DOJ in divesting RSNs
- International approval

All of this (correct me if I'm wrong) still needs to take place before the deal is officially closed, which is why we're looking at this December at the earliest- right?

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:43 AM   #56
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Is it, though? From what I gather reading here is that, in addition to the shareholder meeting, the following need to take place:

- Divesting of RSNs (think it has to be within 90 days)
- Approval by federal judge of the settlement between Disney/DOJ in divesting RSNs
- International approval

All of this (correct me if I'm wrong) still needs to take place before the deal is officially closed, which is why we're looking at this December at the earliest- right?
Those things have to happen, yes, but they're all just administrative details and there's no reason to believe they won't happen smoothly.

Disney already has a divestiture plan, so it's a simple matter of implementing it. I haven't heard of any international concerns (and since both companies have primary operations in the US, there aren't likely to be large hurdles).

The only meaningful threat to this happening is another bid from Comcast and that is becoming less and less likely with each passing day.

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Old 07-03-2018, 09:55 AM   #57
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Received the updated proxy vote from DIS, FOX, and FOXA.
Do you work for Fox?

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Old 07-03-2018, 10:22 AM   #58
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Those things have to happen, yes, but they're all just administrative details and there's no reason to believe they won't happen smoothly.

Disney already has a divestiture plan, so it's a simple matter of implementing it. I haven't heard of any international concerns (and since both companies have primary operations in the US, there aren't likely to be large hurdles).

The only meaningful threat to this happening is another bid from Comcast and that is becoming less and less likely with each passing day.
Gotcha... I think. Big Bang mentioned the federal judge/international approval when I asked about how this whole process needs to play out. As for "no reason to believe they won't happen smoothly"... well, I don't think many of us were expecting Comcast's bid. It's not over til it's over!

As far as these being "administrative details"... I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. I mean, isn't the whole deal made up of "administrative details"? Or am I missing something here?

I see Forbes says that "Going forward, Disney would have 90 days after closing the deal to complete selling off the RSNs, with a possible 90-day extension." I thought it had to happen for deal to close, but I guess it can take place after. The whole distinction between what's mandatory for the closing versus what isn't I guess is still a bit nebulous for me.

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Old 07-03-2018, 10:40 AM   #59
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Gotcha... I think. Big Bang mentioned the federal judge/international approval when I asked about how this whole process needs to play out. As for "no reason to believe they won't happen smoothly"... well, I don't think many of us were expecting Comcast's bid. It's not over til it's over!

As far as these being "administrative details"... I'm not entirely sure what you mean here. I mean, isn't the whole deal made up of "administrative details"? Or am I missing something here?

I see Forbes says that "Going forward, Disney would have 90 days after closing the deal to complete selling off the RSNs, with a possible 90-day extension." I thought it had to happen for deal to close, but I guess it can take place after. The whole distinction between what's mandatory for the closing versus what isn't I guess is still a bit nebulous for me.
Yes, it is all administrative details, and a lot of administrative details have already happened. If you or I looked at the mountains of paperwork related to this, it would all seem very overwhelming, but for a large team of people who know what they're doing taking one bite at a time, it all gets done.

Just like a skyscraper being built. It's sort of hard to imagine that happening, but they get made. And using that skyscraper analogy, if something goes wrong, like somebody ordered the wrong bolts, they just pause, get the right bolts and move on. Those details don't jeopardize the project, they're just things that have to be figured out.

The only realistic thing that could jeopardize this sale (now that the DOJ has approved) is Comcast. Fox shareholders are happy with the Disney offer. Disney shareholders are happy with the offer, so there's no realistic chance those votes will go the wrong way.

As for the divestiture happening after the sale, that makes sense because it puts it on Disney. If Fox had to sell it, the whole deal would have to be put on hold because the details of the deal would be changed and they'd have to send out new ballots etc. etc. etc. And what if Fox had a problem selling it? Doing it that way would cause potential problems.

This way, Disney can sell it after the fact. Disney is almost certainly talking to potential buyers now, so by the time this closes, they'll likely have a buyer all ready to go. And if it takes a while, the court will be willing to give them what they need. Disney doesn't have any intention of keeping the sports assets and the court knows it, so they'll simply work it out.

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Old 07-03-2018, 10:40 AM   #60
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Do you work for Fox?
Probably a stock shareholder.

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Old 07-03-2018, 10:41 AM   #61
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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Do you work for Fox?
He's a shareholder

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Old 07-03-2018, 10:51 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Willie Lumpkin View Post
Yes, it is all administrative details, and a lot of administrative details have already happened. If you or I looked at the mountains of paperwork related to this, it would all seem very overwhelming, but for a large team of people who know what they're doing taking one bite at a time, it all gets done.

Just like a skyscraper being built. It's sort of hard to imagine that happening, but they get made. And using that skyscraper analogy, if something goes wrong, like somebody ordered the wrong bolts, they just pause, get the right bolts and move on. Those details don't jeopardize the project, they're just things that have to be figured out.

The only realistic thing that could jeopardize this sale (now that the DOJ has approved) is Comcast. Fox shareholders are happy with the Disney offer. Disney shareholders are happy with the offer, so there's no realistic chance those votes will go the wrong way.

As for the divestiture happening after the sale, that makes sense because it puts it on Disney. If Fox had to sell it, the whole deal would have to be put on hold because the details of the deal would be changed and they'd have to send out new ballots etc. etc. etc. And what if Fox had a problem selling it? Doing it that way would cause potential problems.

This way, Disney can sell it after the fact. Disney is almost certainly talking to potential buyers now, so by the time this closes, they'll likely have a buyer all ready to go. And if it takes a while, the court will be willing to give them what they need. Disney doesn't have any intention of keeping the sports assets and the court knows it, so they'll simply work it out.
That skyscraper analogy really helped, Willie. All of the analogies really make things a lot clearer. I understand it a lot better now- thanks!

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Old 07-03-2018, 11:02 AM   #63
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Even though I think Disney will ultimately prevail I fully expect the shareholder meeting scheduled for July 27th to be postponed. Comcast is really annoying and will likely put up another counter bid partially to stymie the momentum of the Disney deal and damage Disney's balance sheet(if they decide to match their offer).

The problem with Comcast putting in a higher offer simply to try to force Disney to spend more is that Sky are seeing the size of the offer on Fox and have been saying that they are starting to think that the offers that have been given for Sky are low. They think that since Fox own a decent part of Sky that the price of Fox should reflect on the price of Sky.


So if Comcast were to try to force the price of Fox up they would also be forcing the price of Sky up. And if they are trying to decide if they are going to keep bidding on Fox then they have to think about how their actions could effect their next actions. If they give up on Fox and focus on Sky then do they really want to force themselves to play more than they have to.

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Old 07-03-2018, 11:11 AM   #64
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

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The problem with Comcast putting in a higher offer simply to try to force Disney to spend more is that Sky are seeing the size of the offer on Fox and have been saying that they are starting to think that the offers that have been given for Sky are low. They think that since Fox own a decent part of Sky that the price of Fox should reflect on the price of Sky.


So if Comcast were to try to force the price of Fox up they would also be forcing the price of Sky up. And if they are trying to decide if they are going to keep bidding on Fox then they have to think about how their actions could effect their next actions. If they give up on Fox and focus on Sky then do they really want to force themselves to play more than they have to.
Exactly.

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Old 07-03-2018, 03:48 PM   #65
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

In Bidding War For Fox, Media Analysts Give Disney Edge Over Comcast

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Disney appears to hold a clear advantage over Comcast in its pursuit of Fox, according to several prominent media analysts. The company will likely emerge the victor in the bidding war for the collection of film and television assets that Rupert Murdoch has assembled over three-plus decades.
Any counteroffer from Comcast would need to be substantially more than its previous $65 billion all-cash bid to claim the prize, Wall Street observers note. The U.S. cable and media giant is hardly deterred by the odds, and is said to be in talks with potential funding partners to submit a richer bid, which some analysts predict could approach $47 a share.

“The issue we see is that the strategic rationale just doesn’t appear to be there for Comcast to chase,” wrote Cowen and Co. media analyst Doug Creutz. “Management cited geographic diversification as an important reason for the bid. However, if Comcast shareholders desire that type of diversification, they are completely free to go rebalance their portfolio in the open market without paying a big M&A premium.”
The stocks in the three media giants are not making dramatic moves ithis holiday week. In afternoon trading, Fox and Disney are off a fraction at $48.88 and $104.79, respectively. Comcast is up a dime at $33.26.Whatever the M&A outcome, one effect of the battle is clear: Disney and Comcast will leave the bidding process “mortal enemies,” says BTIG media analyst Rich Greenfield. (In his updates on what he has dubbed “#BattleFox,” Greenfield uses the puckish illustration of Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and Disney chief Bob Iger in a Star Wars lightsaber duel.) Tensions have been steadily rising, as evidenced by Iger pointedly attacking Comcast’s potential to win regulatory of a Fox acquisition.
“The source of rising tensions is clear, as Comcast has already forced Disney to pay 35% more for Fox than it had originally agreed upon and caused Disney to stop its share repurchase program,” wrote Greenfield. Add to that the cost of Comcast’s competing bid for UK satellite broadcaster Sky TV, with its 23 million subscribers in seven countries, which may force Fox to up its offer for Sky in the coming days (and increase Disney’s overall debt load from the two planned acquisitions).
Greenfield observes that the bidding war comes at a time when Disney is heading into a major investment cycle for its Disney-branded streaming service scheduled to launch next year, “one that we believe investors are severely underestimating as it tries to build a global SVOD platform to compete with Netflix.” The tab could run into the billions, the analyst estimates, at a time when the company has opted to forego revenues from the content syndication from distributors such as Netflix, which is estimated to have generated $300 million annually in revenues.

“If we were in Comcast’s shoes, we would literally push Disney to their breaking point to see if we could make them blink and give up,” Greenfield wrote.
That sentiment is hardly a unanimous one among media watchers.
Cowen and Co.’s Creutz wrote it’s time for Comcast to stand down.Iger has made the case that Fox’s complimentary properties — including its Avatar, X-Men and Planet of the Apes film franchises and Family Guy, Homeland, Empire, Atlanta, and American Horror Story TV shows — will further Disney’s strategy to build a Netflix rival.
“While we disagree with that assessment — we think Disney has sufficient assets to be successful, and adding Fox just dilutes their brand and asset mix — we could be wrong,” Creutz writes. “Most importantly, Disney management clearly believes in that idea. Comcast (for fairly obvious reasons) has little incentive to play up the direct-to-consumer-angle.
Comcast’s Roberts has talked about the value of Fox’s international holdings — its ownership of Star India, one of India’s largest media conglomerates, its 39% stake in UK satellite broadcaster Sky TV — and its potential to broaden the reach of the largely U.S.-centric company.
“Disney has a much better reason (from their perspective) to escalate bidding than Comcast does,” Creutz observes.

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Old 07-03-2018, 03:57 PM   #66
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" Fox’s complimentary properties — including its Avatar, X-Men and Planet of the Apes film franchises and Family Guy, Homeland, Empire, Atlanta, and American Horror Story TV shows — will further Disney’s strategy to build a Netflix rival."

Wait, what? No mention of adding Fant4stic to the streaming catalog?

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Old 07-03-2018, 06:04 PM   #67
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Do you work for Fox?
Dollar is your "hypothetical stockholder"....

And the reason you are cut out of the negotiations for chocolate bribe, by outing his/her-self, I no longer have to boost the bid to cover your 10% of the cocoa-action to ensure the votes go for the Four coming home.


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Old 07-03-2018, 06:06 PM   #68
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Speaking of which, Dollar, if it comes to a coin flip, I got three bags of dark chocolate candies to weight that coin with!

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Old 07-03-2018, 06:07 PM   #69
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" Fox’s complimentary properties — including its Avatar, X-Men and Planet of the Apes film franchises and Family Guy, Homeland, Empire, Atlanta, and American Horror Story TV shows — will further Disney’s strategy to build a Netflix rival."

Wait, what? No mention of adding Fant4stic to the streaming catalog?
doesn't need to be mentioned, its a world wide phenomenon, everyone knows that!

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Old 07-04-2018, 11:51 AM   #70
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

A recent NYT article tried to throw some shade on the Disney-Fox deal, alleging that politics may have played a role in how quickly it was approved.

One of the attorney's who worked on the deal even responded to it. Interesting quick read:

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/03/o...-fox-deal.html

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To the Editor:

Re your July 2 editorial about the resolution by the Justice Department of its investigation of the Disney-Fox transaction:
Contrary to your suggestion, the investigation was thorough: Disney and Fox produced millions of documents and large quantities of data and engaged in extensive discussions with the Justice Department. After resolving other issues, the department focused on the regional sports networks, something that many had anticipated. Indeed, Disney agreed last December to divest them, if necessary.

On the timing? Instead of spending months seeking a lesser remedy, as some parties do, Disney agreed to divest all of the regional sports networks, providing the clean, structural relief the department favors.
Your concern about the market share of the combined studios is misplaced, as it ignores the competition from Universal, Warner Bros., Paramount, Sony-Columbia, Lionsgate, Netflix, Amazon and others. And your selective focus on a five-month box-office period ignores the fact that the average combined share of Disney and Fox studios has been below levels traditionally challenged by the department in other cases.

THOMAS O. BARNETT, WASHINGTON

The writer, antitrust counsel to Disney in the Fox transaction, is a former assistant attorney general for antitrust.

Seems the author of the original piece had forgotten that one of the reasons why the AT&T Time Warner deal took as long as it did, was because in that case as well the DOJ wanted structural relief, which AT&T refused to provide. Court battle ensued.

Interestingly, after testifying that AT&T's acquisition of Time Warner would lead to lower prices, they have instead recently begun to raise prices.

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry...b09e4a8b286bf7

Seems the DOJ may have been right after all.

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Old 07-04-2018, 12:03 PM   #71
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

IMHO the AT&T and Time Warner merger shouldn't have been allowed to go through.

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Old 07-04-2018, 12:15 PM   #72
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

The fact that Comcast and Universal are one company and AT&T and Warner now are one company are much much more closer to a monopoly than a Disney-Fox will ever be. But haterzz gonna hate for no reason.

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Old 07-04-2018, 12:19 PM   #73
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

It's difficult calling any old media company as a monopoly on the age of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google.

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Old 07-04-2018, 04:59 PM   #74
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Default Re: The Rebooted "Keep Hope Alive" (that the rights can revert back to Marvel) Thread

Considering that Comcast is an internet service provider and can therefore control access to information and all those services I can see the concern.

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Old 07-04-2018, 10:12 PM   #75
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It's difficult calling any old media company as a monopoly in the age of Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google.
Death to old media through mergers and buyouts.

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