The 2008 Democratic and Republican Primaries

Matt · 01-03-2008, 04:57 PM

Well, we should start getting results within a few hours. Pretty exciting times, huh? Experts are predicting record turn outs for the Iowa Caucus.

Although, I don't think the Iowa Caucus is as important to Republicans as it normally is. Regardless of who takes Iowa, this will still be anyone's race for Republicans.

Democrats on the other hand...If Hilary wins Iowa...she pretty much has the primary locked. If Obama upsets Hilary...it will be a 2 person race (Obama vs Hilary) that should be decided on Super Duper Tuesday. If Edwards wins...well...then this whole thing becomes a lot more interesting.

What are everyone's thoughts?

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:01 PM

If Edwards wins, I think Obama is going to have to work really hard, whereas Hillary can come back easier. Obama wins, then Edwards is gone, and Hilary has her work cut out for her. Hilary wins, god forbid, Obama and Edwards are done, and we will all die.

Matt · 01-03-2008, 05:05 PM

That sums it up pretty well. If Obama wins and Edwards comes in second, he may still have a chance, but really the only thing that could save his campaign would be the death of his wife, as morbid as it is to say. If Edwards wins...then he has a real shot. If he can take South Carolina, or place highly in New Hampshire especially. Super Duper Tuesday consists mostly of Southern and Middle states, which gives him an edge over the other two.

bell110 · 01-03-2008, 05:09 PM

What if Paul does "better then expected"?

What time does this end BTW?

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:10 PM

I would love to see Obama place first, and Edwards second. I would love Edwards to jump up, but numbers now have Obama at 32%, Edwards 27% and Clinton 24% according to Reuters. The only thing I dont like about Obama is his health care ideas. Some balance such as Edwards on his ticket would be amazing....

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:12 PM

I want to see Richardson win it, but if not (and that is unlikely) then Edwards. Sorry, I am not buying into the media's idea that the race is only between Hilary and Obama and has been for some time.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bell110

What if Paul does "better then expected"?

What time does this end BTW?

What would be better than expected? 3rd? He wont get second or higher, and a 3rd place finish wouldnt help him too much. McCain has NH tied down, and with Romney a northeastern guy, he will place high there. Huckabee finishes 1st or 2nd in Iowa, he will place high in NH. Paul isnt going anywhere in this election.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Rogers

I want to see Richardson win it, but if not (and that is unlikely) then Edwards. Sorry, I am not buying into the media's idea that the race is only between Hilary and Obama and has been for some time.

The past few weeks I have been reading up on Edwards, and I love the guy more and more. I would love to see him win.

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

The past few weeks I have been reading up on Edwards, and I love the guy more and more. I would love to see him win.

My grandmother works for his campaign. Everytime I talk to her I get an earful of pro Edwardsness. She sold me.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Rogers

My grandmother works for his campaign. Everytime I talk to her I get an earful of pro Edwardsness. She sold me.

Ive been working on grassroots Kucinich info down here, but as you would be able to see, Kucinich isnt really the most popular in Texas. Im thinking when NH passes, Kucinich will drop out, and I will work for the Edwards camp.

Matt · 01-03-2008, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

I would love to see Obama place first, and Edwards second. I would love Edwards to jump up, but numbers now have Obama at 32%, Edwards 27% and Clinton 24% according to Reuters. The only thing I dont like about Obama is his health care ideas. Some balance such as Edwards on his ticket would be amazing....

I dunno, primary polling is historically inaccurate...so I'd say it is still anyone's game in Iowa. Keep in mind, a lot of people going for Obama in these polls, traditionally don't vote. Still, Obama first, Edwards second, and Clinton third would certainly create an interesting scenario.

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:21 PM

I love how Matt made this a sticky.

Matt · 01-03-2008, 05:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bell110

What if Paul does "better then expected"?

What time does this end BTW?

3rd is his best case scenario and it doesn't help him much.

Matt · 01-03-2008, 05:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Rogers

I love how Matt made this a sticky.

Well, why not? Its an important topic for our entire country.

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt

Well, why not? Its an important topic for our entire country.

You're right it is. Which is why I love it. Not the SHH awards or any rules or something like that, but the future of our nation is a sticky. I like that.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Steve Rogers

You're right it is. Which is why I love it. Not the SHH awards or any rules or something like that, but the future of our nation is a sticky. I like that.

I also like how Matt is the only mod who would do that.

1 hour left...

Probably find out who wins the caucus in 3 hours...

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

I also like how Matt is the only mod who would do that.

Oh yeah. He's all about the election. He's like the CNN of the Hype.

bell110 · 01-03-2008, 05:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt

3rd is his best case scenario and it doesn't help him much.

You have to be optimistic

Actually I'd be very suprised if he got 3rd, and I think it would help him alot. People who originally shrugged him off might take notice.

As for Dems, anyone BUT Hillary.

StorminNorman · 01-03-2008, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bell110

What if Paul does "better then expected"?

What time does this end BTW?

For Paul "better than expected" is fourth or fifth - not exactly momentum building.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by bell110

You have to be optimistic

Actually I'd be very suprised if he got 3rd, and I think it would help him alot. People who originally shrugged him off might take notice.

As for Dems, anyone BUT Hillary.

3rd isnt even enough for him, maybe not even 2nd. He would have to place a solid 1st to gain national TV momentum.

StorminNorman · 01-03-2008, 05:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

I would love to see Obama place first, and Edwards second. I would love Edwards to jump up, but numbers now have Obama at 32%, Edwards 27% and Clinton 24% according to Reuters. The only thing I dont like about Obama is his health care ideas. Some balance such as Edwards on his ticket would be amazing....

Primary polls are nothing to swear buy - Caucus polls are far worse still. If Obama is banking on high youth turnout - for example - his campaign is in trouble.

I have heard that there are suppose to be projected low voter turn out for Republicans - which will benefit Romney.

I truly believe that if Romney wins tonight, he wins it all.

cookiva · 01-03-2008, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StorminNorman

Primary polls are nothing to swear buy - Caucus polls are far worse still. If Obama is banking on high youth turnout - for example - his campaign is in trouble.

I have heard that there are suppose to be projected low voter turn out for Republicans - which will benefit Romney.

I truly believe that if Romney wins tonight, he wins it all.

Oh, Im not going off of that with my life.

BTW, anyone else love how Rudy is so far off the charts???

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

3rd isnt even enough for him, maybe not even 2nd. He would have to place a solid 1st to gain national TV momentum.

Who? Paul? I thought he was already the media darling. Time magizine bills him as a cross between Cinderella, Thomas Jefferson and the Second Coming of Christ. I don't see it, but that's what I've seen via the media.

Steve Rogers · 01-03-2008, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

BTW, anyone else love how Rudy is so far off the charts???

Yes. Yes I do.

StorminNorman · 01-03-2008, 05:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cookiva

Oh, Im not going off of that with my life.

BTW, anyone else love how Rudy is so far off the charts???

Rudy gave up on Iowa long ago - which makes sense since he never had a chance in an area where religion is a very large factor in Republican minds.

View Poll Results: Who will win the Pennsylvania Primary and by how much?
Clinton beats Obama by slim margin (1-4 %)	5	22.73%
Clinton beats Obama by single digit but decent sized margin (5-9 %)	8	36.36%
Clinton beats Obama by double digit margin (10 % - 15 %)	4	18.18%
Clinton destroys Obama (15 % +)	0	0%
Obama beats Clinton by slim margin (1 - 4 %)	2	9.09%
Obama beats Clinton by single digit but decent sized margin (5 - 9 %)	1	4.55%
Obama beats Clinton by double digit margin (10 - 15 %)	0	0%
Obama destroys Clinton (15 % +)	2	9.09%
Voters: 22. You may not vote on this poll

01-03-2008, 04:57 PM	#1
Matt The Man SHH! Global Moderator Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Camp Manuel Posts: 73,952	The Iowa Caucus thread... Well, we should start getting results within a few hours. Pretty exciting times, huh? Experts are predicting record turn outs for the Iowa Caucus. Although, I don't think the Iowa Caucus is as important to Republicans as it normally is. Regardless of who takes Iowa, this will still be anyone's race for Republicans. Democrats on the other hand...If Hilary wins Iowa...she pretty much has the primary locked. If Obama upsets Hilary...it will be a 2 person race (Obama vs Hilary) that should be decided on Super Duper Tuesday. If Edwards wins...well...then this whole thing becomes a lot more interesting. What are everyone's thoughts?

01-03-2008, 05:01 PM	#2
cookiva Banned User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Dallas Posts: 13,078	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... If Edwards wins, I think Obama is going to have to work really hard, whereas Hillary can come back easier. Obama wins, then Edwards is gone, and Hilary has her work cut out for her. Hilary wins, god forbid, Obama and Edwards are done, and we will all die.

01-03-2008, 05:05 PM	#3
Matt The Man SHH! Global Moderator Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Camp Manuel Posts: 73,952	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... That sums it up pretty well. If Obama wins and Edwards comes in second, he may still have a chance, but really the only thing that could save his campaign would be the death of his wife, as morbid as it is to say. If Edwards wins...then he has a real shot. If he can take South Carolina, or place highly in New Hampshire especially. Super Duper Tuesday consists mostly of Southern and Middle states, which gives him an edge over the other two.

01-03-2008, 05:09 PM	#4
bell110 Drunk on Capitol Hill Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 3,023	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... What if Paul does "better then expected"? What time does this end BTW?

01-03-2008, 05:10 PM	#5
cookiva Banned User Join Date: Sep 2005 Location: Dallas Posts: 13,078	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... I would love to see Obama place first, and Edwards second. I would love Edwards to jump up, but numbers now have Obama at 32%, Edwards 27% and Clinton 24% according to Reuters. The only thing I dont like about Obama is his health care ideas. Some balance such as Edwards on his ticket would be amazing....

01-03-2008, 05:12 PM	#6
Steve Rogers Side-Kick Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,770	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... I want to see Richardson win it, but if not (and that is unlikely) then Edwards. Sorry, I am not buying into the media's idea that the race is only between Hilary and Obama and has been for some time. __________________ Back After A Long Hiatus!! Yeah, like anyone remembers me...

01-03-2008, 05:21 PM	#12
Steve Rogers Side-Kick Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,770	Re: The Iowa Caucus thread... I love how Matt made this a sticky. __________________ Back After A Long Hiatus!! Yeah, like anyone remembers me...

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