The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[spider-neil]

Originally Posted by Crook

I think it has much more to do with the hype of their respective films. IM2 was anticipated, but nowhere near as much as TDK. We'll see in the oncoming weeks whether audiences thought it was a better film.

As for the more popular superhero, well, arguably Spidey had that crown, and TDK still beat out SM3.

spidey made more money than TDK overseas

[Crook]

Originally Posted by spider-neil

spidey made more money than TDK overseas

I'm sure it did better in certain states too, but I tend to go for the bigger picture rather than placing priority over an area.

[MoPlaYa]

I think IronMan 2 will make 250 million in the U.S and 300 million W.W, so 550 million total

[spider-neil]

Originally Posted by souvlaki

Given that no one knows how the film would have done had Heath Ledger lived, no, it is not a fact. What gave Dark Knight legs and made it the biggest superhero movie of all time were repeat customers and word of mouth. That has nothing to do with Heath Ledger dying. If the movie were not as good as it was the film would have been front loaded, and would have stalled after it's first weekend. It didn't.

its more than WOM. the WOM for TF2 was disgraceful but it still did huge numbers

[Spider-Fan]

Originally Posted by MoPlaYa43

I think IronMan 2 will make 250 million in the U.S and 300 million W.W, so 550 million total

The first film grossed over 300 mil after only grossing 100 mil opening weekend. For it to crap out domestically at 250 mil, especially opening at 133, the drops would have to be rather large. I don't see that happening. It will outgross first IM, I think.

[Rumpy Bulge Dubz]

Iron Man 2 Reaches $327.6 Million Worldwide



http://www.superherohype.com/news/ar...lion-worldwide

[terry78]

Not shabby. It should maintain itself for another week or so due to Robin Hood not exactly being all that fun looking.

[Golgo-13]

What was IM 1's weekend B.O?

[Spider-Fan]

About 100mil. The estimate I found from 2008 said 100.8mil.

[FaT_tONle]

It's a 33% increase from IM from last weekend. If it tracks as well as IM it will end up with 65 millish next week. Of course that is unlikely, so if that number drops to 55ish, then it could have as much as 220 by next Monday but probably falling just short of 400 depending on the tracking. It depends on the legs.

[Iceman]

I hope it makes in the region of $400m domestic. The more it makes the more chance of a decent Avengers budget

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by YJ1

Anyone think that Nashville being under water and New York being jittery (they evacuate Time Square when anyone farts loud these days) has any effect on domestic box office? Just spitballing but that's two big markets effected by things not controllable.

I'll give you Nashville, since that's underwater, but I work in New York and I can tell you that didn't stop anyone from going to the movies, or anything else for that matter. They didn't even cancel the Broadway shows on the street the car bomb was found - they just started them late and made the audience use another exit when they left.

I was there last week going to dinner and a Broadway show with a friend, and the place was just as crowded as it's always been.

There's only one movie theater in the vicinity of Times Square that is playing Iron Man 2, and the shows were sold out there over the weekend. That stuff didn't affect it at all.

[kedrell]

It's at nearly 200M OS already. The 1st film only made $266M OS. I think this'll do about a hundred million more or so OS than the 1st and $50+ million more domestic for a WW total of about $700-750M. The first made $585M WW. A healthy increase and gets it into Spider-Man territory BO-wise.

[kedrell]

Do you guys think they would have been better off keeping the original release date(4/30/10)? I've heard that school finals are going on right now which could have had an effect on the OW gross(especially the opening day). Also there's the piracy issue due to it being available elsewhere a full week/week and a half before in North America. And then there's the fact that Sunday was Mother's Day(not sure whether that helped or hurt the gross). Also, why is Marvel so damned set on May releases? Are they so nostalgic for SM1's historic outing that they blind themselves to the fact that summer weekdays are more advantageous?

[jmc]

^I'd actually like to know that for blockbuster films in general. Just out of curiosity are there school holidays over in the States this time of year?

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Do you guys think they would have been better off keeping the original release date(4/30/10)? I've heard that school finals are going on right now which could have had an effect on the OW gross(especially the opening day). Also there's the piracy issue due to it being available elsewhere a full week/week and a half before in North America. And then there's the fact that Sunday was Mother's Day(not sure whether that helped or hurt the gross). Also, why is Marvel so damned set on May releases? Are they so nostalgic for SM1's historic outing that they blind themselves to the fact that summer weekdays are more advantageous?

Not sure if EVERY school's finals week is this week. I have friends in law school and med school who are currently very frazzled, but I suspect high school and/or undergraduate colleges may be different....

Still, if two graduate schools on completely different sides of the country have the same finals week, it's probably pretty standard.

I think it would have dampened the midnight gross, but it shouldn't have affected the weekend that much, especially if students needed to unwind after a grueling week of finals. Maybe they all had to go home to their moms instead, who knows.

Holiday weekends like Mother's Day always experience some kind of boost. It's a good excuse to get out and see a movie with family.

Originally Posted by jmc

^I'd actually like to know that for blockbuster films in general. Just out of curiosity are there school holidays over in the States this time of year?

No. Most schools get out in the middle of June. Late May if you're really lucky. You can see the change in the daily grosses, definitely. Weekday grosses are always a lot higher in the summer compared to the school year, but that also translates into bigger weekend-to-weekend drops because a lot of demand will have been burnt off in the weekdays.

[kedrell]

I thought Mother's Day tended to only be a help to female-oriented films rather than fanboy films like IM2.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by kedrell

I thought Mother's Day tended to only be a help to female-oriented films rather than fanboy films like IM2.

Well, IM2 has RDJ in it.

And Babies crashed and burned, so I dunno if that rule still applies here.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by Anita18

Well, IM2 has RDJ in it.

And Babies crashed and burned, so I dunno if that rule still applies here.

Well Babies was never going anywhere, no matter what. I was meaning more about female films that actually have some wide appeal like rom-coms. And RDJ not withstanding, IM2 is still a fanboy, blow-em-up movie.

[TheVileOne]

What does it matter? Iron Man 2 still made $133 million this weekend.

People are social animals that want a shared experience. Even though it was Mother's Day weekend, I went to Stadium bar on Saturday night and a ton of people were there watching the Sharks playoff game and UFC 113.

[kedrell]

I'm just trying to figure whether they could have/should have done better or not. Tracking before this weekend was around 20M higher than it ended up getting. Tracking for the 1st film was about 30M lower than it ended up getting. How these things happen interests some of us.

[TheVileOne]

kedrell:

They should've NOT released the movie overseas a week before the US release. Not just about piracy, but they should've built up to a big global release at around the same date. It's still ridiculous and pointless IMHO that they waited a week to release it here especially when all the big premieres ended up in the US anyway because of the volcanic cloud over Europe. Also $133 million is a good opening weekend number. It's already surpassed $300 million worldwide. $133 million is still above Iron Man adjusted.

[TheVileOne]

Also, next week they are going to crush the Robin Hood movie no one is going to see.

[kedrell]

I agree on all points, Vile. But I tend to think that rather than holding the OS release back a week that they should have kept the original domestic release date to achieve that same simultaneous global release. I think they at least probably would have beaten New Moon's OW then.

[TheVileOne]

Who gives a **** about New Moon, you do realize this movie will more than likely surpass New Moon domestic and foreign right? There's not going to be a 70% second weekend dropoff like New Moon.

I was by my local AMC this morning, and Sunday matinees of Iron Man 2 lines were around the block.

Only teenage girls and old ladies care about New Moon. Everybody loves Iron Man.

Also, you can't release a summer movie on April 30. For it to be officially summer it needs to open in May. It should've waited a week to open it globally so all the momentum is focused on that one release date. Opening it everywhere else first was what hurt it the most IMHO.