The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by Sentinel X

Wow. Seriously? ....so because Iron Man didn't beat TDK's OW you cannot discuss it at all even though the two were highly expected to make comparable box office returns? I think people need to stop being so sensitive...its just box office and none of you are getting a penny of it. Just have fun with it. Geez

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out.

[Evil Twin]

Originally Posted by Anita18

It's curious too, since TF2's opening was huge. Does that mean TF1 had better WOM in the general public than IM1? Usually the boost in sequel box office openings mirror the kind of reception the previous film got. Hence SM3 being bigger than SM2, TDK being bigger than BB, POTC: DMC being bigger than COTBP. TF2 seemed to get a bigger boost than IM2, especially if you consider that it opened on a Wednesday. That's the part that makes me go and at the same time.

I suppose it's at least possible that RDJ's appeal skews older than the teenagers that MUST get out on the first weekend and that's going to mitigate week to week dropoffs as the older crowd comes out. I've no read on Robin Hood, although I expect it will do better than Speed Racer two years ago in a similar spot, and it might appeal to the older crowd that remembers Gladiator fondly.

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.

[Sentinel X]

Originally Posted by danoyse

You can compare the box office of both movies all you want - just don't turn this thread into an off-topic discussion about Heath Ledger's death, which I just had to delete an entire page of comments about.

We have a Batman forum. Go there if you want to continue that discussion.

You want to talk about TDK's box office in comparison to IM2's box office, knock yourself out.

How is that facepalm worthy when you're the one who said you were deleting TDK comments instead of saying you'd delete comments talking about Heath's death. Those are two complete different things.

Anyways back to IM2 BO, I think its going to end up doing roughly 350 million domestically...which is still spectacular imo

[hatebox]

I imagine $400m domestic is the absolute ceiling for this film. Lukewarm reviews and an early May release date suggest a x3 multiplyer is the best it can get after a $100m+ opening, and I'm just not convinced it'll have great word of mouth. If it performs beyond that it'll be because other films severely underperformed.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by Evil Twin

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.

That's definitely fair.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Evil Twin

I suppose it's at least possible that RDJ's appeal skews older than the teenagers that MUST get out on the first weekend and that's going to mitigate week to week dropoffs as the older crowd comes out. I've no read on Robin Hood, although I expect it will do better than Speed Racer two years ago in a similar spot, and it might appeal to the older crowd that remembers Gladiator fondly.

We'll see, but on standard opening weekend multipliers, IM2 is probably going to do somewheter between $330 million and $400 million domestic at the box office (2.5X to 3X opening weekend.) If people are disappointed at that, then they got carried away with irrational exuberance.

Considering the first film did 318 on a 100 million dollar opening, it's not out of the ordiary to say this film could do 400. We won't know until week 2. I don't expect a 60% plus drop like Spider-man 2 and New Moon had. In fact the user reviews on RT are at 89%, so the whole "weak reception" is something the haters are just trying to pile on, and it's complete BS. Spider-man 3 had a 59% user review, and New Moon had 53%.

I can't predict the future, but I'd be shocked if there was a 60% drop next week.

The word of mouth on this film is excellent, and most of the people I've talked to love this movie far more than the critcs, and RT's user reviews seem to reflect that.

I agree that anything this film does should not be viewed as dissapointing. Star Trek last year only did something like 240 million, but I thought it was a huge success, and I thought it should have gotten an oscar bid over Avatar, as it was much better writing/acting.

[BenReilly]

Weekend actuals are in:

IRON MAN 2's official domestic opening came in at $128,122,480--about $5 million less than estimated.

http://twitter.com/ERCboxoffice/status/13744502595

[hatebox]

Hmm, $5m is quite a big margin of error even if it was a big amount...

[Evil Twin]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Considering the first film did 318 on a 100 million dollar opening, it's not out of the ordiary to say this film could do 400. We won't know until week 2. I don't expect a 60% plus drop like Spider-man 2 and New Moon had. In fact the user reviews on RT are at 89%, so the whole "weak reception" is something the haters are just trying to pile on, and it's complete BS. Spider-man 3 had a 59% user review, and New Moon had 53%.

I can't predict the future, but I'd be shocked if there was a 60% drop next week.

The word of mouth on this film is excellent, and most of the people I've talked to love this movie far more than the critcs, and RT's user reviews seem to reflect that.

I agree that anything this film does should not be viewed as dissapointing. Star Trek last year only did something like 240 million, but I thought it was a huge success, and I thought it should have gotten an oscar bid over Avatar, as it was much better writing/acting.

Actually, the multiplier for the original Iron Man is out of the ordinary. Likewise for TDK and Avatar. 2.5 to 3X is the ordinary range for a summer blockbuster.

IM2 is doing fine at the box office. It's going to make more than $300 million domestic. But, there's not a thing out there that indicates it's doing anything special for a blockbuster. The fact that it fell below the estimates indicates that real world WOM is worse than internet WOM.

But, competition looks weak and we'll see what the 2nd weekend dropoff is. It's no failure in any sense of the word, even if it likely doesn't make $400 million domestic.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Evil Twin

Actually, the multiplier for the original Iron Man is out of the ordinary. Likewise for TDK and Avatar. 2.5 to 3X is the ordinary range for a summer blockbuster.

IM2 is doing fine at the box office. It's going to make more than $300 million domestic. But, there's not a thing out there that indicates it's doing anything special for a blockbuster. The fact that it fell below the estimates indicates that real world WOM is worse than internet WOM.

But, competition looks weak and we'll see what the 2nd weekend dropoff is. It's no failure in any sense of the word, even if it likely doesn't make $400 million domestic.

The multiplier for IM1 was 2.6, the multiplier for IM2 with the actuals in is 2.5, but I agree it's a success nomatter what the final tally.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Hmm, $5m is quite a big margin of error even if it was a big amount...

It is, hence the additional on BOM and WoKJ.

It is what it is, though. It'll make money, that's a good thing.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Anita18

It is, hence the additional on BOM and WoKJ.

It is what it is, though. It'll make money, that's a good thing.

You mean the forums? Those are a joke to listen to, the biggest fanboy jerkoff boards I've ever read in my life. It's not the first time a studio has over estimated a film. The first IM was overestimated by I think 2.5 million.

It's still the 5th largest opening weekend. and Marvel's 2nd largest opening behind Spider-man. Only the fanboys on BOM would call it an "epic fail".

[Evil Twin]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

The multiplier for IM1 was 2.6, the multiplier for IM2 with the actuals in is 2.5, but I agree it's a success nomatter what the final tally.

I'm talking total gross vs. opening weekend gross. IM had an opening weekend gross of $102 million and finished at $318 million. A multiplier of 3.1.

We'll see where IM2 ends up, but based on it's new number of $128 million, a range of $320 million to $384 million (2.5-3 times opening weekend) domestic seems likely. Call it $350 million as a likely number and that's a big success no matter how it's spun.

[hatebox]

It didn't occur to me before but the first film actually had quite a clear run before it got some real competition: Speed Racer and Prince Caspian bombed in the month after it was released.

Paramount/Marvel seem to have a knack for picking good slots.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

You mean the forums? Those are a joke to listen to, the biggest fanboy jerkoff boards I've ever read in my life. It's not the first time a studio has over estimated a film. The first IM was overestimated by I think 2.5 million.

It's still the 5th largest opening weekend. and Marvel's 2nd largest opening behind Spider-man. Only the fanboys on BOM would call it an "epic fail".

BOM is a little more "loonie" than WoKJ, which actually have posters who are pretty knowledgeable. I think some of them can get very fanboyish in their support of a particular film (and it's pretty obvious which ones if you start reading them) but it's all tongue-in-cheek, as far as I can tell.

And sure, lots of films get overestimated. But it's still a pretty rare occurrence that a film get overestimated from "official" estimates by $5 million. That's kind of a lot.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Evil Twin

I'm talking total gross vs. opening weekend gross. IM had an opening weekend gross of $102 million and finished at $318 million. A multiplier of 3.1.

We'll see where IM2 ends up, but based on it's new number of $128 million, a range of $320 million to $384 million (2.5-3 times opening weekend) domestic seems likely. Call it $350 million as a likely number and that's a big success no matter how it's spun.

OK gotcha, yeah we've yet to see about that, but overall I agree with your point.

[Raiden]

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M domestically, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.

[Doctor Jones]

I think it will do fine. Robin Hood could either flop or be a considerable hit. But IM faced the same problems in May two years ago and that did fine.

[Tony Stark]

Highest prediction I've seen for Robin Hood so far is 35 million or so. It's only set for 3500 theaters, so for a limited release, that number sounds about right.

Should IM2 hold form to it's predecessor, the number will be in the low 60's or so.

I'm not good at predicting these things, but we'll see how it turns out.

[JeetKuneDo]

Originally Posted by Sentinel X

Anyways back to IM2 BO, I think its going to end up doing roughly 350 million domestically...which is still spectacular imo

Apparently not.

Our standard for "successful" is beyond belief these days. I can't believe this movie just grossed 128 million in its opening weekend (top 10 adjusted all time) and some are attempting to claim this is some kind of "failure". Really? Holy smokes....it's almost impossible to be successful. What has Avatar done to us?

My real measure of success is that they managed to top the first one...which I really didn't expect to be honest.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Highest prediction I've seen for Robin Hood so far is 35 million or so. It's only set for 3500 theaters, so for a limited release, that number sounds about right.

I wouldn't call 3500 theaters a "limited" release.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by JeetKuneDo

Apparently not.

Our standard for "successful" is beyond belief these days. I can't believe this movie just grossed 128 million in its opening weekend (top 10 adjusted all time) and some are attempting to claim this is some kind of "failure". Really? Holy smokes....it's almost impossible to be successful. What has Avatar done to us?

My real measure of success is that they managed to top the first one...which I really didn't expect to be honest.

Only the numbskulls on the BOM boards are claiming that. The posters on those forums are about as bad as the idiots who watch the NFL draft and boo their teams selections.

The movie is a huge success, wheather or not it really was going to break TDK's record, who knows. There was 1000 point drop in the Dow at one point last week, durring all the crap that was happening in Greece, so the economy is very unstable now. That alone could have prompted people to stay home who might have gone. I have no clue.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by danoyse

I wouldn't call 3500 theaters a "limited" release.

Sorry, I should refrase. I don't think it will be on enough screens to really compete this week, so 30 mil or so seems about right.

[DW4]

Originally Posted by Raiden

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M WW, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.

LOL. You couldn't be anymore wrong.

Through 3 days it made almost $130 domestically and it already at $322 million WW . Do you really think the movie is going to die down that much?

It will probably make another $8-10 million each weekday and make around 50-80 million during the weekend.

I'm pulling for Robin Hood as I enjoy Russell Crowe and Mark Strong but it might be a flop unfortunately domestically.

[dark_b]

Originally Posted by Raiden

It appears that IM2 will have a hard time making it to 400M WW, which is a bit disappointing but if it can approach this figure I think it'll be fine. Second week is crucial, as we will see whether WOM and reviews will have a positive or negative effect on its BO returns.

but the first movie made 580 WW.

you think IM2 will make less?