The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[hatebox]

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

No I just find this all to be silly at this point now that this movie is a hit

Again: talking about superhero movies ad nauseum like everyone does on here is basically illogical and pointless. Yet here we all are.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

Hit a sore spot eh?

Nope. I just find it strange that the republican posters enterject politics into every movie.

TDK was a love song to Bush and other silly things like that.

You people pay way too much attention to a throwaway line that was probably ad-ibbed.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Again: talking about superhero movies ad nauseum like everyone does on here is basically illogical and pointless. Yet here we all are.

Just leave him be. I just decided to do something that I hate to do, I put him on my ignore list.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

I don't care if it breaks records. I am not making any of that money. You assume I would brag like the tdk and avatar clowns? Sorry, I am an adult.

And you're acting like a troll. So if you have nothing else to add to this discussion, I suggest you find a thread whose subject does interest you.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Republicans are strange.

This is not a political thread, so...enough of that too.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I wasn't the one who brought politics up but ofcourse I'm going to stop talking about it. I'm going back on topic.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Internet polls don't mean a thing to me. I'm not saying that it has the worse word of mouth ever or that it's word of mouth is terrible but it's clearly not as good as the first.

What about Cinemascore? That's exit-polling, not an internet poll, and IM2 rated an A. And their scores are usually pretty accurate with box office predictions.

There's a good article about how that polling works here:

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct...t-bigpicture13

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I wasn't the one who brought politics up but ofcourse I'm going to stop talking about it. I'm going back on topic.

But you're the one who hurled "Republican" back as an insult, so...that gets a warning too. Let's stay on topic.

[dark_b]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

No actually if you read what I said, I pretty much defended my position. Second of all I said it most likely would not make 400 mil. What I said is that this is pretty much going to be 360-380, and I'm standing by that. Clearly it will finish above SM3 as you can see how SM3 tanked on Sunday which IM2 did not see.

Second of all, you say "lukewarm word of mouth" talk about letting your opinion cloud your judgement. The major box office indicators show that this movie is getting high ratings among fans. The movie was more front loaded than the first, and it was expecting to get at least a 55% drop.

Even TDK had a 51% drop with no competition in week 2. The lowest week 2 drop for a superhero film was SM2 which only saw a 37% drop.

you dont like when IM2 numbers are compared to the ''bat'' movie .

yet you are saying how it will make more then SM3. so it looks like you couldnt use TDK numbers since they are to big. so you went for SM3. right?

how is this different?

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by danoyse

What about Cinemascore? That's exit-polling, not an internet poll, and IM2 rated an A. And their scores are usually pretty accurate with box office predictions.

There's a good article about how that polling works here:

http://articles.latimes.com/2009/oct...t-bigpicture13

I haven't seen one person say that this movie is as good or better than the first. As for the Cinema score, I believe Pirates 3 got an A too and it had s**t legs and most didn't like it as much as the first two.

[Evil Twin]

The problem with Cinemascore and the like, is that they're basically sampling the converted on something like IM2 already. To an extent, it's like polling people coming out of church as to how religous they are.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I follow cinema score and it's a great tool and it's score is why I don't think that the movie is hated but I see no proof that this movie is beloved. Maybe it is and the next one will open with 180mil and prove it but as of right now I don't see a whole lot of proof.

Anyway, I have to wait for the actuals to fully form my opinion about it's second weekend. Because it could go up or down for all I know.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I haven't seen one person say that this movie is as good or better than the first. As for the Cinema score, I believe Pirates 3 got an A too and it had s**t legs and most didn't like it as much as the first two.

Oh I see, you are the final arbitor on what's a good movie or not.

BTW, I've never said any one source means good word of mouth, but FYI Pirates got a 67% on RT reviews, and IM2 is getting 88%, SM3 had 59%, but I guess since that's another internet poll, you don't care since you didn't like the movie.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I haven't seen one person say that this movie is as good or better than the first.

So internet polls mean nothing to you but the "everyone I know" factor does?

For the record, everyone I know thought this movie was as good or better than the first.

As for the Cinema score, I believe Pirates 3 got an A too and it had s**t legs and most didn't like it as much as the first two.

So one example dooms the entire polling process that has been around since the 1980s? Their reporting is generally pretty accurate, looking at their polls from last year.

[hatebox]

Yeah, cinemascore can be misleading - surveying people who saw it on the opening night/weekend is asking people who are, frankly, more predisposed to like the film than a casual viewer who saw it weeks later. It's more useful for lower budget films where word of mouth can really make or break their box office.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Originally Posted by danoyse

So internet polls mean nothing to you but the "everyone I know" factor does?

For the record, everyone I know thought this movie was as good or better than the first.



So one example dooms the entire polling process that has been around since the 1980s? Their reporting is generally pretty accurate, looking at their polls from last year.

I didn't say one example dooms the entire process. I will still listen to cinema score and not silly internet polls but like all earthly things they are not perfect.

I'm not burying my head in the sand because I didn't love the movie. I hate those Harry Potter flicks but I aknowlege people love them, I hate the Transformer flicks but I aknowlege that people dig them. I enjoyed Where The Wild Things Are but I aknowlege that alot of folk just didn't give a s**t.

I look at reception and boxoffice numbers in an almost completely detached manner. Ofcourse I'm human so I'm sure my judgement is clouded on it to some degree but overall I look at the raw data and judge it based on that.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Yeah, cinemascore can be misleading - surveying people who saw it on the opening night/weekend is asking people who are, frankly, more predisposed to like the film than a casual viewer who saw it weeks later. It's more useful for lower budget films where word of mouth can really make or break their box office.

It's true they've got that built-in audience factor with big films like Iron Man 2, but it is a pretty decent gauge of what the word-of-mouth is going to be like.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

I haven't seen one person say that this movie is as good or better than the first. As for the Cinema score, I believe Pirates 3 got an A too and it had s**t legs and most didn't like it as much as the first two.

Actually, in the rate & review thread as well as on youtube with user made reviews, there are plenty who are saying that. There are also plenty saying it's not as good as the first.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

If this movie doesn't make atleast 360mil I'm going to conlude that it's word of mouth is not all that fantastic.

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Again: talking about superhero movies ad nauseum like everyone does on here is basically illogical and pointless. Yet here we all are.

Not really. Talking about the movies and sequels is one thing---fretting over box office is something else.

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by I SEE SPIDEY

Nope. I just find it strange that the republican posters enterject politics into every movie.

TDK was a love song to Bush and other silly things like that.

You people pay way too much attention to a throwaway line that was probably ad-ibbed.

But its the truth. Republicans are a hated breed in hollywood by many. Throw away lines and themes are picked up. The politics of im2 are much more easy to pick up then in tdk. Tony says that he has privitized world peace to a bunch of government cronies. The themes are relevent with bank bailouts and healthcare.

In the first movie, they could support tony because his stance on weapons and transformation from a patriotic bush-era weapons dealer. Their nostalgia and praise for the first and dislike of this one is downright silly. They practically are the same movie.

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by danoyse

And you're acting like a troll. So if you have nothing else to add to this discussion, I suggest you find a thread whose subject does interest you.

I don't think I am trolling. This endless competition between movie franchises is unhealthy, annoying, and is filtering into other threads. This is all about tdk and their hordes that troll anything that isn't batman. I think you all know I'm right.

[TheVileOne]

OK here comes The Vile One to save the day.

First of all you guys need to calm down.

Now I'm going to make some observations:

-This movie contrary to what you all are saying is performing very well. Yes it's true. Did it underperform under some expectations? Yes it probably did. But when a sequel comes out people's expectations are always high and overrated. Look at Spider-man 2. Even though the movie was freaking awesome, highly rated and reviewed and people felt it was better than Spider-man still did less than the first movie domestic and overseas. Than you had Spider-man 3 which wasn't as good of a movie, opened huge, and ended up doing less than 1 and 2 domestic but made more than both worldwide.

-Iron Man only made $266 million overseas. Iron Man 2 so far has made $212 million overseas. It's easily going to surpass the Iron Man numbers worldwide and overseas.

-The movie was #1 two weekends in a row. Ok, a 58-60% dropoff is not that great, but the movie opened pretty huge among like the top 5 or so openings ever. A big dropoff was bound to happen. These are estimates and actuals could tell a different story though, good or bad. Still in this day and age, a summer blockbuster staying at the #1 spot is not something that happens a lot.

-Memorial Day is going to happen soon. Memorial Day weekend is pretty much an automatic BO booster for just about everything. That's automatically going to push this movie over $300 million domestic.

-Check back to posts 2 years ago. People said there was NO CHANCE that Iron Man could surpass $300 million. The point, you guys overthink this stuff so much. You guys need to sit back and chill. The fact of the matter is the movie is performing well. It might not be performing as high as many expected it to, but it's still doing very well.

[Ironfan72]

This year I think Iron Man 2 has tougher competition in the following weekend after opening, having Robin Hood open the following weekend and making $31 million, as with Iron Man in 2008 had Speed Racer open the following weekend and it tanked, so Robin Hood took a big chunk out this weekends take in my opinion and I suspect IM2 will not be in first place with McGruber and Shrek 4 coming out, it could fall to third, so even though IM2 imo was fantastic and better than the first, it has better films to compete against.

[Spider-Fan]

What's the domestic total up to after the weekend estimates?

The people who said it won't make 300 mil after the opening were crazy to say that. The film is not doing poorly. Fans just expected way too much. Not the first time.