The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[FaT_tONle]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Yes, $400m is no longer anywhere near as difficult as it was a number of years ago due to inflation. That's why TDK's domestic box office is pretty similar in achievement to Spidey 1's. It would be nice if they just did this stuff in ticket sales instead of nominal dollars. Hollywood gets to hide behind inflation. The music industry, however, simply tracks units sold and there's no way of hiding the declines that have gone on over the years.

Not to open up a can of worms, but the movie industry is pretty much heading there. It's pretty much, sequel, CB movie, remakes, where they make their doe and most of the leftovers make next to nothing. Eventually they will be repeating the cycle for the third and fourth times with some properties. Inflation can't mask it forever.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by FaT_tONle

Not to open up a can of worms, but the movie industry is pretty much heading there. It's pretty much, sequel, CB movie, remakes, where they make their doe and most of the leftovers make next to nothing. Eventually they will be repeating the cycle for the third and fourth times with some properties. Inflation can't mask it forever.

The thing is, they are making plenty of money relative to their budgets. They'll keep making unoriginal movies as long as the public continues lapping them up, which doesn't look like it's going to go away any time soon. The music industry has been destroyed by the Internet. The movie industry can still offer a product on a superficial level (big screen and surround sound) that cannot be enjoyed on a computer or iPod.

[FaT_tONle]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

The thing is, they are making plenty of money relative to their budgets. They'll keep making unoriginal movies as long as the public continues lapping them up, which doesn't look like it's going to go away any time soon. The music industry has been destroyed by the Internet. The movie industry can still offer a product on a superficial level (big screen and surround sound) that cannot be enjoyed on a computer or iPod.

Yeah Hollywood can always become the next Bollywood that's not an issue. But eventually the home technology will catch up. And if they want to throw in this 3-D gimmick, that will only buy themselves a little more time before 100 inch 3-D flats start appearing readily in large enough house holds. Eventually, going to a summer tentpole needs to feel like going to Universal Studios or something, or else people will just revert to the internet to provide most of their films, or dirt cheap rental services that are at least legal. Hollywood needs to constantly stay ahead of the game and that only comes with technology, because whatever has been done with only pen and paper has already been repeated a million times.

[Superhero 101]

100.2 million in five days that's a good sign

[terry78]

If it did that well overseas, I'm scared at the **** it's gonna generate this weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by terry78

If it did that well overseas, I'm scared at the **** it's gonna generate this weekend.

$170-180m domestic opening weekend. Get ready for it.

[Abraham]

700-800 m WW

my prediction

[TheVileOne]

It will have a strong opening weekend.

You have to understand guys, people want escapist entertainment right now. Iron Man 2 is going to be like the biggest escapist entertainment of the summer. But it's not just that. Kids are all up into Iron Man right now. He's become a Spider-man like figure. Why do you think the womanizing and the alcoholism has been played down in these movies? Because this needs to be a movie appropriate for the kiddies, like it or not.

Look at Clash of The Titans, one of the biggest POS's of all time, still made a ton of money. Lots more of these movies are cleaning up these days because of the horrible job market and bad economy people want to get away from the hard realities of the world and just enjoy themselves.

[hatebox]

Do we have anything to compare these OS grosses to? I mean, is this an Earth shattering amount for the number of territories it was released in or pretty much what was expected?

[jmc]

According to box office mojo film one opened with around $99 million so it's about on par.

[DarkKnight88]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Yes, $400m is no longer anywhere near as difficult as it was a number of years ago due to inflation. That's why TDK's domestic box office is pretty similar in achievement to Spidey 1's. It would be nice if they just did this stuff in ticket sales instead of nominal dollars. Hollywood gets to hide behind inflation.

Inflation doesn't work either, though. We're living in a completely different world than 10 years ago. Piracy, downloads, blu-rays, home theater systems, shorter theatre to dvd changeover time, amount of competition, other mediums people are spending on (video games for one). Inflation might seem like it's easier to achieve yet it's also more difficult. Ticket sales aren't an accurate comparison anymore.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by DarkKnight88

Inflation doesn't work either, though. We're living in a completely different world than 10 years ago. Piracy, downloads, blu-rays, home theater systems, shorter theatre to dvd changeover time, amount of competition, other mediums people are spending on (video games for one). Inflation might seem like it's easier to achieve yet it's also more difficult. Ticket sales aren't an accurate comparison anymore.

Transformers 2 says "hello." That movie had it a hell of a lot easier to reach $400m than the likes of Spider-Man. They made practically the same thing, but I have some beachfront property in Arizona with your name on it if you really think TF2 was just as popular as Spider-Man.

As for piracy, I said it before and I'll say it again: the music industry does not hide behind inflation like the movie industry despite the fact that the music industry has undoubtedly been hit much harder by piracy than the movie industry.

[DarkKnight88]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

Transformers 2 says "hello." That movie had it a hell of a lot easier to reach $400m than the likes of Spider-Man. As for piracy, I said it before and I'll say it again: the music industry does not hide behind inflation like the movie industry and the music industry has undoubtedly been hit much harder by piracy than the movie industry.

Debatable. Simple fact is inflation isn't accurate to gauge what Spider-Man would've done in 2010. Or what Transformers 2 would've done in 2002. Different worlds. Different times.

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by DarkKnight88

Debatable. Simple fact is inflation isn't accurate to gauge what Spider-Man would've done in 2010. Or what Transformers 2 would've done in 2002. Different worlds. Different times.

One of them was undoubtedly more popular in its day than the other in its day. One of them was a phenomenon that caused the industry to ratchet up its production of a particular genre. You can't directly compare how an older movie would do today or how a newer movie would do years ago, but you can compare their impact on the culture. Spidey had a much bigger impact.

[terry78]

Originally Posted by TheVileOne

It will have a strong opening weekend.

You have to understand guys, people want escapist entertainment right now. Iron Man 2 is going to be like the biggest escapist entertainment of the summer. But it's not just that. Kids are all up into Iron Man right now. He's become a Spider-man like figure. Why do you think the womanizing and the alcoholism has been played down in these movies? Because this needs to be a movie appropriate for the kiddies, like it or not.

Look at Clash of The Titans, one of the biggest POS's of all time, still made a ton of money. Lots more of these movies are cleaning up these days because of the horrible job market and bad economy people want to get away from the hard realities of the world and just enjoy themselves.

Yeah, I went by the theatre yesterday to pick up a gift card for my parent's anniversary, and some kids in line with their parents were already asking constantly when Iron Man was coming out.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by DarkKnight88

Debatable. Simple fact is inflation isn't accurate to gauge what Spider-Man would've done in 2010. Or what Transformers 2 would've done in 2002. Different worlds. Different times.

I think that's true to some extent. For example I believe adjusted for inflation Gone With the Wind is the no. 1 movie ever. Well this was released in an era before Television, before Beta Max and VHS, Before the internet, before DVD and Blue Ray. You can't really make a one to one correltation.

However, between Spider-Man and Iron Man, there was only a 7 year gap and a 9 year gap to now. While many things have changed, in that time, it's a more similar time frame.

Spider-Man was released on alot of screens for it's time, around 3800, but still far fewer that TDK which had the widest release on record at 4366 screens, IM2 will be inbetween at 4000, which seems rather odd that it's not more, so I expect alot of sell outs.

Still overall you make a good point.

[Crook]

Originally Posted by redfirebird2008

One of them was undoubtedly more popular in its day than the other in its day. One of them was a phenomenon that caused the industry to ratchet up its production of a particular genre.

I know you were referring to Spidey, but there's been a high influx of remaking 70s/80s shows...

[redfirebird2008]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Spider-Man was released on alot of screens for it's time, around 3800, but still far fewer that TDK which had the widest release on record at 4366 screens, IM2 will be inbetween at 4000, which seems rather odd that it's not more, so I expect alot of sell outs.

Still overall you make a good point.

You are confusing screen count and theater count. The screen count is much higher than that on these movies. Spidey 1 was on 7,500 screens, TDK was on 9,000 screens, and SM3 was on 10,000 screens. I actually think IM2 will have a higher screen count than TDK despite the smaller theater count. It has less competition, meaning it will get more screens at each theater. SM3 also had a smaller theater count than TDK but faced pretty much zero competition so it ended up with 1,000 more screens than TDK. Check out these articles:

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=1157&p=.htm

Originally Posted by Box Office Mojo

Swinging into 3,615 theaters, the $130 million Marvel Comics adaptation ranked as the third-widest release ever after Harry Potter's 3,672 and Mission: Impossible 2's 3,653, and it played on an estimated 7,500 screens, a bit shy of Harry Potter's 8,200 record. Nonetheless, Spidey swooped past Harry Potter's $90.3 million to claim the opening weekend crown, and posted the highest per theater average ever for an ultra-wide release—a staggering $31,769.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2308&p=.htm

Originally Posted by Box Office Mojo

Landing on the same early May slot as the original, Spider-Man 3 spun $151.1 million on over 10,000 screens at 4,252 locations, the biggest opening weekend and widest release ever.

http://boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=2504&p=.htm

Originally Posted by Box Office Mojo

Over the weekend alone, The Dark Knight captured a whopping $158.4 million on over 9,000 screens at 4,366 theaters, breaking Spider-Man 3's benchmark of $151.1 million.

[GhostPoet]

So, i'm surprised. Iron Man 2 is already sold out at the largest theater in my area (and it's a big one!!) Yet...I was able to buy tickets 2 days in advance before Avatar came out...but a week in advance Iron Man 2 is already sold out? dang....

[hatebox]

Avatar didn't have a big opening weekend in fairness.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by hatebox

Avatar didn't have a big opening weekend in fairness.

Yup. And the question isn't whether a movie is sold out, the question is how many more screens will they open up to meet the demand, cause that means more money.

I was stuck at work on TDK's release date, and in the meantime I was checking my large local theater online, watching new midnight screens pop up and disappear. In the end, it sold out 14 out of 16 screens, and one of the unused screens was reserved for Mamma Mia.

I don't want to imagine how insane Harry Potter and Twilight were.

[TheVileOne]

I think the opening weekend will be bigger than Iron Man. Worldwide I predict Iron Man 2 will make more than Iron Man. Domestically, not so sure.

Just remember, Spider-man 3 made more money worldwide than both Spider-man and Spider-man 2.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by Anita18

I was stuck at work on TDK's release date, and in the meantime I was checking my large local theater online, watching new midnight screens pop up and disappear. In the end, it sold out 14 out of 16 screens, and one of the unused screens was reserved for Mamma Mia.

I passed the AMC on 42nd St in NYC at around 1:45am on TDK's first Friday night on my way home from a concert, and there was a line of well over 200 people stretched around the block waiting for the 2:30am show.

I think they just ran it 24 hours straight for the next week or so.

Just got my IM2 tickets for the IMAX on Friday night.

[hatebox]

The film made £7.6 on its debut weekend in the UK. Very solid, but far from record breaking.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by TheVileOne

I think the opening weekend will be bigger than Iron Man. Worldwide I predict Iron Man 2 will make more than Iron Man. Domestically, not so sure.

Just remember, Spider-man 3 made more money worldwide than both Spider-man and Spider-man 2.

No this film is almost guaranteed to make 400 million domestic. You're looking at 150 or better opening weekend if not significantly higher, and from there it will easily cruise to 400. The first film made it to 300 mill with a 100 mil opening weekend and much tougher competition over the first 4 weeks.

If Prince of Persia bombs out, IM could be the no. 1 movie until Eclipse comes out.