The Iron Man 2 Box Office Prediction Thread

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by ElMariachi

with all due respect, I don't really see how I am trolling. I am discussing things and engaging with those who disagree with my takes. Trolls make their attacks and then fly away to avoid those who challenge their ridiculous points. I think my points have made sense and are relevant to this thread. This movie isn't going to make any more real money anyway so I see no harm in me pointing out how silly people act sometimes.

It's a box office thread, not an 'attack people for discussing the box office' thread. If you can't stick to the subject, you won't be posting on this thread.

[Iron_Stark]

Originally Posted by souvlaki

You can laugh if you want but I'll come out and say right now it will not only hit $300 million but will possibly match or surpass Iron Man 2. Here's an example of how from the BOM messageboard:


No way to know for certain until we see the numbers for this weekend but it's already looking as if the legs on this film are better than anything we've seen this summer. Also to compare expectations for a sequel to a popular film that made over $300 million to expectations for an unknown property is ridiculous. A $300 million domestic take from Inception is not the same as a $300 million domestic take from Iron Man. Like it or not the expectations for both are completely different.

You can't be serious.

Originally Posted by Milkman95

You can't compare the films - one is an original science fiction film and the other is a highly anticipated sequel coming off a huge first film. Marvel/Disney shouldn't panic, but not making as much domestically as the first film has to be somewhat of a surprise and a little disappointing.

Sure I can probably see it that way, but the way people are talking about IM's BO, you'd think it barely made over 100 million.

That's the point I'm trying to make, if there's no panic from WB then there shouldn't be any from Marvel/Disney.

[souvlaki]

Originally Posted by Iron_Stark

You can't be serious.

Completely. Is it a certainty? No, but it's more likely than your projected $210 million ceiling. Right now I'd argue the absolute floor is $205 million. The best comparison I can think of is Batman Begins, another film that started off slowly but had tremendous legs, and obviously it's easily comparable because of the director and fanbase. While not a perfect comparison due to it's opening on a Wednesday, on it's first Tuesday it had grossed $84.9 million. Despite opening on a Friday, Inception is currently at $82.7 million and will probably pass it within the next few days, possibly even tomorrow. As for how it will get to $300 million and higher, I gave an example on the previous page of how it could get there. I don't think anyone is going to have an idea of where this movie is going until we see the numbers for this weekend but if it's above $35 million I think it would be a fair assessment that it's legs are longer than you are giving it credit for. I think your problem with seeing this movie perform well is that you are looking at Inception as if it will perform like a normal summer blockbuster which all signs indicate it will not. The day to day drops have been outstanding, and the WOM grows stronger with every passing day. It's one of the top trending topics on Twitter, and there were even reports of IMAX showings selling out across the country as recently as last night.

Maybe I came off as too cocky in my previous post, but I really don't think Inception making $310 million given how it's performed the last few days is any crazier than saying it will get $210 million.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by souvlaki

You can laugh if you want but I'll come out and say right now it will not only hit $300 million but will possibly match or surpass Iron Man 2. Here's an example of how from the BOM messageboard:



No way to know for certain until we see the numbers for this weekend but it's already looking as if the legs on this film are better than anything we've seen this summer. Also to compare expectations for a sequel to a popular film that made over $300 million to expectations for an unknown property is ridiculous. A $300 million domestic take from Inception is not the same as a $300 million domestic take from Iron Man. Like it or not the expectations for both are completely different.

Not going to happen. I think Inception will probably have a 3.5 multiplier which is VERY GOOD, but that only puts it at 217. This is giving it a higher multiplier than any other Nolan film including TDK.

If the film only has a 3.0 multiplier, which is still way above average for a summer flick which is usally 2.5, it will not even make it to 200 million.

The only way Inception makes it to 300 million is if it has Avatar like response at the Box office, and as good as it was, I think that is unlikely. This is the type of film that alot of people may just wait for DVD/Blue Ray. There are alot of effects in the film but alot of it is practical effects. Most of the CGI scenes were what people saw in the trailer.

The movie will probably get nominated for best picture, and possibly best actor with DiCaprio so why do you care if it gets 300 million or beats Iron Man. This is the type of Nolanite behavior that is just sickening.

[souvlaki]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Not going to happen. I think Inception will probably have a 3.5 multiplier which is VERY GOOD, but that only puts it at 217. This is giving it a higher multiplier than any other Nolan film including TDK.

If the film only has a 3.0 multiplier, which is still way above average for a summer flick which is usally 2.5, it will not even make it to 200 million.

The only way Inception makes it to 300 million is if it has Avatar like response at the Box office, and as good as it was, I think that is unlikely. This is the type of film that alot of people may just wait for DVD/Blue Ray. There are alot of effects in the film but alot of it is practical effects. Most of the CGI scenes were what people saw in the trailer.

The movie will probably get nominated for best picture, and possibly best actor with DiCaprio so why do you care if it gets 300 million or beats Iron Man. This is the type of Nolanite behavior that is just sickening.

I don't care honestly. I just think it's way too early to dismiss. And where exactly are you getting an Avatar type response is necessary to get Inception to $300 million? A response similar to the Hangover would probably push it over $300 million.

[Anita18]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Not going to happen. I think Inception will probably have a 3.5 multiplier which is VERY GOOD, but that only puts it at 217. This is giving it a higher multiplier than any other Nolan film including TDK.

If the film only has a 3.0 multiplier, which is still way above average for a summer flick which is usally 2.5, it will not even make it to 200 million.

The movie will probably get nominated for best picture, and possibly best actor with DiCaprio so why do you care if it gets 300 million or beats Iron Man. This is the type of Nolanite behavior that is just sickening.

And your behavior is pretty anti-Nolan as well.

3.5 multiplier is definitely above average for a summer film, you're right. But you're also using TDK as a comparison, which is ridiculous in itself because it's still the opening weekend record holder. You can't expect to have a huge multiplier after burning off that much demand. TDK had an awesome multiplier considering that.

There isn't really a good comparison for Inception if you're looking at just Nolan films. TDK has the OW record. BB opened on a Wednesday. All his other movies weren't released in the summer.

But yeah, I wouldn't start expecting $300 million, but it would be great if it got there.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Rumpy Bulge18

And your behavior is pretty anti-Nolan as well.

3.5 multiplier is definitely above average for a summer film, you're right. But you're also using TDK as a comparison, which is ridiculous in itself because it's still the opening weekend record holder. You can't expect to have a huge multiplier after burning off that much demand. TDK had an awesome multiplier considering that.

There isn't really a good comparison for Inception if you're looking at just Nolan films. TDK has the OW record. BB opened on a Wednesday. All his other movies weren't released in the summer.

But yeah, I wouldn't start expecting $300 million, but it would be great if it got there.

The multiplier really doesn't have anything to do with TDK and comparing it to record holders. I think the Prestiege had a 3.3 or 3.4 multiplier and it was financially a success due to smart budget control, but really not a BO smash by any measure. only like 54 million domestic.

Inception just seems like the type of movie that will get good wom reccomendations, and the dailies are a good indication of that. So I expect it will be a 3.2 to 3.5 multiplier. Like I said that's only going to put it's top around 210-217. This film could easily not reach 200 million. That doesn't make it a bad film, it's probably the best film of the summer overall quality wise.

I'm sure it will get a best picture/actor nod, although DiCaprio may get nominated for Shudder Island instead of this. If he doesn't then Ken Wantanabe will get a supporting actor bid, I'm sure of it.

I'm not anti-Nolan, he's a great film maker. I'm anti-Nolanite.

[danoyse]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

I'm not anti-Nolan, he's a great film maker. I'm anti-Nolanite.

Discussing Inception's box office in a positive way to does not deem someone a "Nolanite."

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Rumpy Bulged

Discussing Inception's box office in a positive way to does not deem someone a "Nolanite."

Someone dropping in the middle of a discussin about Iron Man, saying "Inception is going to beat or surpass Iron Man" when it only had a 62 million dollar start, does make them a Nolanite.

I'm a fan on Christopher Nolan, but the Truth is the Batman movies are not even close to his best efforts. If someone was unaware of Nolan and got turned onto his movies after seeing the Batman films great. But the fact is most of the Nolanites would not even bother watching a Nolan film it it weren't for BB and TDK, and that's what bothers me, and I bet it would bother Christopher Nolan as well.

Anyway Inception is a great film, I don't have any qualms about it, and should by some miracle it makes 300 million good for Nolan/WB.

I find it laughable that people think I'm somehow anti-Nolan. Momento is one of my favorite films, and I liked it before I ever knew there was going to be a Batman film directed by Nolan. But because I look at a film and think it's going to have a 3.5 multiplier, but say that it's quite possible it could only have a 3x multiplier (which is still way above average) that I somehow hate Christopher Nolan.

This is fanboyism at it's worse and shows exactly who the "Nolanites" are. Apparently it's not allowed on SHH to like Inception and give it a 9.5/10 rating, and to say it should get a best picture/best actor nomination. Apparently I must bow down before Christopher Nolan and sacrifice my first born at the alter of the Dark Knight, and that Christopher Nolan should direct every superhero movie from here on out.

I think I just threw up in my mouth a bit.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by souvlaki

I don't care honestly. I just think it's way too early to dismiss. And where exactly are you getting an Avatar type response is necessary to get Inception to $300 million? A response similar to the Hangover would probably push it over $300 million.

If Inception makes 45 this weekend, then we'll talk. Most predictions show mid 30's which is a good drop, but no where near where it would need to be to make it to 300 million.

Hangover is a different animal. Popular comedies often have high multipliers because they don't get frontloaded, because there's not a rush of people to see them opening weekend, as a standard Summer blockbuster.

The Curse of the Black Pearl was also a special exception where people didn't know what to make of it, until it came out and there was a rush to see what was the one big blockbuster in an otherwise ordinary summer (with the exception of X2).

I just don't see that with Inception, although who knows. I just find it hillarious that giving it a 3.5 multiplier is somehow dissing the movie.

You will know by tomorow night if it's going to make 300.

[Crook]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

Someone dropping in the middle of a discussin about Iron Man, saying "Inception is going to beat or surpass Iron Man" when it only had a 62 million dollar start, does make them a Nolanite.

I'm a fan on Christopher Nolan, but the Truth is the Batman movies are not even close to his best efforts. If someone was unaware of Nolan and got turned onto his movies after seeing the Batman films great. But the fact is most of the Nolanites would not even bother watching a Nolan film it it weren't for BB and TDK, and that's what bothers me, and I bet it would bother Christopher Nolan as well.

Anyway Inception is a great film, I don't have any qualms about it, and should by some miracle it makes 300 million good for Nolan/WB.

I find it laughable that people think I'm somehow anti-Nolan. Momento is one of my favorite films, and I liked it before I ever knew there was going to be a Batman film directed by Nolan. But because I look at a film and think it's going to have a 3.5 multiplier, but say that it's quite possible it could only have a 3x multiplier (which is still way above average) that I somehow hate Christopher Nolan.

This is fanboyism at it's worse and shows exactly who the "Nolanites" are. Apparently it's not allowed on SHH to like Inception and give it a 9.5/10 rating, and to say it should get a best picture/best actor nomination. Apparently I must bow down before Christopher Nolan and sacrifice my first born at the alter of the Dark Knight, and that Christopher Nolan should direct every superhero movie from here on out.

I think I just threw up in my mouth a bit.

This rant sounds oddly familiar. Doesn't feel great now that the shoe is on the other foot, eh?

[souvlaki]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

The Curse of the Black Pearl was also a special exception where people didn't know what to make of it, until it came out and there was a rush to see what was the one big blockbuster in an otherwise ordinary summer (with the exception of X2).

And this doesn't apply to Inception how exactly? This pretty much sums up Inception to a "T". You are using similar multipliers to past Nolan films but that really doesn't apply in this case. Dark Knight As Anita pointed out Dark Knight was more front loaded due to it's huge opening weekend. While Batman Begins had amazing legs it didn't have nearly as large of weekday numbers. In fact, on Begins' first Wednesday (not counting it's opening day) it had made $90 million which puts Inception out in front of Begins after less than a week. And trying to compare the legs on the Prestige to the legs on Inception seems pointless as well as the Prestige had nowhere near the critical acclaim or WOM of Inception.

Saw someone figure out the take if it were to follow a similar path as past movies with similar drops to this point and this was the result:

Pirates: $385 million.
Star Trek: $347 million
Signs: $323 million
Bourne 3: $300 million
Bourne 2: $300 million
I, Robot: $268 million
Sixth Sense: $623 million

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities. If it ends up somewhere around $40 million this weekend then I think it might happen.

[ElMariachi]

Originally Posted by danoyse

It's a box office thread, not an 'attack people for discussing the box office' thread. If you can't stick to the subject, you won't be posting on this thread.

I am not attacking anybody. I have been trying to discuss the box office numbers but it's all specualation. We don't have any information or statistics to go by aside from the box office numbers. I don't see why your getting on me when all I was doing is saying that Iron Man 2 made good enough money.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by souvlaki

And this doesn't apply to Inception how exactly? This pretty much sums up Inception to a "T". You are using similar multipliers to past Nolan films but that really doesn't apply in this case. Dark Knight As Anita pointed out Dark Knight was more front loaded due to it's huge opening weekend. While Batman Begins had amazing legs it didn't have nearly as large of weekday numbers. In fact, on Begins' first Wednesday (not counting it's opening day) it had made $90 million which puts Inception out in front of Begins after less than a week. And trying to compare the legs on the Prestige to the legs on Inception seems pointless as well as the Prestige had nowhere near the critical acclaim or WOM of Inception.

Saw someone figure out the take if it were to follow a similar path as past movies with similar drops to this point and this was the result:

Pirates: $385 million.
Star Trek: $347 million
Signs: $323 million
Bourne 3: $300 million
Bourne 2: $300 million
I, Robot: $268 million
Sixth Sense: $623 million

I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's not completely out of the realm of possibilities. If it ends up somewhere around $40 million this weekend then I think it might happen.

I don't know where you got those numbers but hardly any of them are correct.

Star Trek did not make 347 million it made 257 million. WW it made 385, but we are talking domestic. Star Trek had a 3.4 multiplier and opened to 75 million.

Curse of the Black Pearl: 305M
Signs: 227M
Bourne Identity: 121M
Bourne Supremacy: 176M
Bourne Ultimatum: 227M
I Robot: 144M
Sixth Sense: 293M

[Crook]

Please read again, he clearly states the numbers reflect what INCEPTION would make, if it follows the same trajectory of the aforementioned titles.

[souvlaki]

^Yeah, what Crook said.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Crook

Please read again, he clearly states the numbers reflect what INCEPTION would make, if it follows the same trajectory of the aforementioned titles.

That can't be right either. I'd have to figure out the day numbers as Inception is higher due to being released in the summer vs. May for Star Trek, but Star Trek had a 42% drop in wk. 2. If that holds for Inception then it would make about 35M this weekend, so those projections can't possibly be right, as the daily numbers wouldn't account for over 100M difference.

This is getting rediculous 623M based on 6th Sense? A 10x multiplier. Seriously WTF? Avatar has been the only thing close to a 10x and even it was just shy of that.

For this film to make 300M it would need a 4.8x multiplier, which again is way above the norm.

[AVEITWITHJAMON]

Originally Posted by Milkman95

You can't compare the films - one is an original science fiction film and the other is a highly anticipated sequel coming off a huge first film. Marvel/Disney shouldn't panic, but not making as much domestically as the first film has to be somewhat of a surprise and a little disappointing.

Thats the point people have been trying to make throughout, including myself, and its an absolute certainty that Marvel wont be entirely happy with IM2 making less domestic than IM1, but pointing this out gets you accused of being a Nolanite or Batfan despite the fact I have followed Nolan since Memento and have been a huge Marvel fan for years.

And yet they accuse others of bias, its laughable.

[hatebox]

Inception has broken $100m in 7 days, according to estimates.

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Inception's weekdays have been fantastic. It's going to have a great weekend. It might make over 40mil. I'm thinking a 35% drop right now but I wouldn't be surprised at all if it did even better than that. I just don't see how it ends under 250mil domestically.

[Milkman95]

Yup, over $100 Million for Inception - you're right, it just might hit $40m this weekend........it has a cover story also on Entertainment Weekly as well.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by AVEITWITHJAMON

Thats the point people have been trying to make throughout, including myself, and its an absolute certainty that Marvel wont be entirely happy with IM2 making less domestic than IM1, but pointing this out gets you accused of being a Nolanite or Batfan despite the fact I have followed Nolan since Memento and have been a huge Marvel fan for years.

And yet they accuse others of bias, its laughable.

Well I can't speak for others, but for myself, and I know you're a Marvel fan and not a Nolanite.

To me a Nolanite is the people who come on here and out of the blue say "Inception is going to make 600M dollars WW"

I too have been a fan of Nolan's since Momento, and quite honestly the Batman film aren't even close to his best work. But don't say that on a Batman thread.

[Milkman95]

^Why not, you can say that, I would hope the craziest Batfan should be able to admit that.

Memento and Inception are better than both Batman films.

[hatebox]

Deadline is reporting that Inception is on course to have a $43m weekend, though last friday they lowballed its OW take by over $5m so it might be even higher. Either way an amazing hold. If the drops continue at this rate (especially as Salt was, demographically, quite stiff competition) then it would hit $300m, but I'm assuming nothing yet. Box office is a funny thing.

[Iron_Stark]

Really good hold by Inception. I still doubt it gets to 300, but it's going to end up with a lot of money.