The 'Transformers 3' Box Office Prediction Thread

[dark_b]

Originally Posted by Nathan

I'd like to watch a non-action scene without going "WTF?" the entire time.

there was a point in the battle where a human is falling down. and Bay goes from the soldier to a slow motion shot of a chair falling next to Shockwave. WTF was created for this movie. the battle editing and narrative is the definition of WTF.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by dark_b

there was a point in the battle where a human is falling down. and Bay goes from the soldier to a slow motion shot of a chair falling next to Shockwave. WTF was created for this movie. the battle editing and narrative is the definition of WTF.

What was WTF about that? Did you want to see the guy go splat in a PG-13 movie?

The point was that Shockwave noticed there that soldiers were in the building.

[dark_b]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

What was WTF about that? Did you want to see the guy go splat in a PG-13 movie?

The point was that Shockwave noticed there that soldiers were in the building.

Bay is that you? a slow motion shot of a chair ? thats the shot you cut from the soldier?

dear lord.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by dark_b

Bay is that you? a slow motion shot of a chair ? thats the shot you cut from the soldier?

dear lord.

Haha, no. But it wasn't a cut if I remember correctly. It was one shot following the soldier then before he falls the camera turns away from him going splat and focuses at the rest of the debris that falls.

And it turned into slow-motion to illustrate Shockwave's acknowledgement of the soldiers.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by chaseter

But a 60% dropoff from $181 is still big cash. It's second weekend it will still be making more than most of the films this summer opened with.

He meant 60% drop from 3-Day weekend. That $181 million is from 6 days. While I don't think its gonna drop that much because there is no comp for its audience next week. I see it coming in around $50 million during its 2nd week.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

He meant 60% drop from 3-Day weekend. That $181 million is from 6 days. While I don't think its gonna drop that much because there is no comp for its audience next week. I see it coming in around $50 million during its 2nd week.

Even so, a 60% drop from 3-Day weekend will also be connected to a 60% drop for it's 2nd full week. If it made 180 week 1, it should make about 100 million in week 2.

Totaling, 280 million by the end of week 2.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

Even so, a 60% drop from 3-Day weekend will also be connected to a 60% drop for it's 2nd full week. If it made 180 week 1, it should make about 100 million in week 2.

Totaling, 280 million by the end of week 2.

Maybe but its entire 2nd week will not have the great scheduling of the first week opening on Wednesday, so that slightly inflates its numbers. But there is no competition for this movie during the 2nd weekend so that'll balance it out.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Maybe but its entire 2nd week will not have the great scheduling of the first week opening on Wednesday, so that slightly inflates its numbers. But there is no competition for this movie during the 2nd weekend so that'll balance it out.

Yea, by the end of this weekend (12 days), it should take over the number 1 spot at the box office for the entire year.

That's significant. People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

Yea, by the end of this weekend (12 days), it should take over the number 1 spot at the box office for the entire year.

That's significant. People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it.

LOL, I'm gonna have to stop agreeing with you there. Besides a few set pieces that were fun to watch in 3D, this was not a good movie. I personally would not recommend it to most of the people I know. Much better options in the theater right now.

[MistaBinks]

I don't know if it has been discussed in this thread already but TF3D reportedly cost 5 million dollars less to make than Green Lantern. Say what you want about Bay but he gets far more out his budget dollars than any other director.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

LOL, I'm gonna have to stop agreeing with you there. Besides a few set pieces that were fun to watch in 3D, this was not a good movie. I personally would not recommend it to most of the people I know. Much better options in the theater right now.

But come on, which other movies? Another friends-comedy (Hangover, Bridesmaids, Hall Pass), or rom-com (Just Go With It, No Strings) or superhero movie (Thor, Green Lantern, X-Men) or another family-CGI film (Rio, Rango, Cars)?

The only real successful movies this year have been sequels, it's just a matter of people in line asking "Eh, how about that other Fast/Furious movie, or Pirates movie or Hangover movie?"

Transformers is the only movie this year that has made the masses plan to go to the theaters just to watch it. Robots fighting hasn't been played-out yet. It's an experience, not a movie.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by MistaBinks

I don't know if it has been discussed in this thread already but TF3D reportedly cost 5 million dollars less to make than Green Lantern. Say what you want about Bay but he gets far more out his budget dollars than any other director.

True. But District 9 looked like an efficient-150 million dollar movie. And it cost just a quarter of that. Blomkamp gets the award here.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

But come on, which other movies? Another friends-comedy (Hangover, Bridesmaids, Hall Pass), or rom-com (Just Go With It, No Strings) or superhero movie (Thor, Green Lantern, X-Men) or another family-CGI film (Rio, Rango, Cars)?

The only real successful movies this year have been sequels, it's just a matter of people in line asking "Eh, how about that other Fast/Furious movie, or Pirates movie or Hangover movie?"

Transformers is the only movie this year that has made the masses plan to go to the theaters just to watch it. Robots fighting hasn't been played-out yet. It's an experience, not a movie.

In terms of what has been released this summer: Thor, First Class, Bridesmaids, Kung-Fu Panda 2, Super 8(despite a good amount of flaws) are far better movies overall. For the smaller movies, Midnight in Paris is a great choice too.

Disagree heavily that Transformers is an experience. All this movie has to offer is robots fighting as you say, nothing else of substance. If you don't see this movie you are not missing out on anything. Avatar despite its heavy flaws was more of an experience. In a few years this movie/trilogy will just be any other regular blockbuster. I'm glad I only paid $10 for my ticket(3D).

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

In terms of what has been released this summer: Thor, First Class, Bridesmaids, Kung-Fu Panda 2, Super 8(despite a good amount of flaws) are far better movies overall. For the smaller movies, Midnight in Paris is a great choice too.

Disagree heavily that Transformers is an experience. All this movie has to offer is robots fighting as you say, nothing else of substance. If you don't see this movie you are not missing out on anything. Avatar despite its heavy flaws was more of an experience. In a few years this movie/trilogy will just be any other regular blockbuster. I'm glad I only paid $10 for my ticket(3D).

It's an experience because it's still a unique spectacle to watch. And there is some heart in these movies.. many people I've talked to admitted to tearing up in a few scenes.

I saw First Class and loved it, but it's "X-Men 5" and "Superhero Movie 34", Thor being "Superhero Movie 35", it's hard to argue those are movies people will rush to see. And the BO proved that.

Like I said, "People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it."

I'm not sure how you disagreed with that.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

It's an experience because it's still a unique spectacle to watch. And there is some heart in these movies.. many people I've talked to admitted to tearing up in a few scenes.

I saw First Class and loved it, but it's "X-Men 5" and "Superhero Movie 34", Thor being "Superhero Movie 35", it's hard to argue those are movies people will rush to see. And the BO proved that.

Like I said, "People have been waiting for a reason to go to the theaters. Transformers has provided it."

I'm not sure how you disagreed with that.

We'll have to disagree that this movie was unique spectacle because to me it is not. If a person does not see it then it's not a big deal, IMO. Avatar is the only movie in recent memory that even comes close to what you call an experience, its advancement in FX, 3D, motion capture etc. was the reason to see it. Evident by the astounding legs that it had, impressive considering the type of BO we have today.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

We'll have to disagree that this movie was unique spectacle because to me it is not. If a person does not see it then it's not a big deal, IMO. Avatar is the only movie in recent memory that even comes close to what you call an experience, its advancement in FX, 3D, motion capture etc. was the reason to see it. Evident by the astounding legs that it had, impressive considering the type of BO we have today.

Haha, okay. But not a good movie, not an experience, and not even a unique spectacle? I'm just trying to label that which allows this movie to become number 1 of the year in just 12 days.

Maybe people simply gravitate towards fighting robots? TF1-3, IronMan1,2 all made 300+ million. If Real Steel reaches 300... they'll green-light Voltron this year!

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

Haha, okay. But not a good movie, not an experience, and not even a unique spectacle? I'm just trying to label that which allows this movie to become number 1 of the year in just 12 days.

Maybe people simply gravitate towards fighting robots? TF1-3, IronMan1,2 all made 300+ million. If Real Steel reaches 300... they'll green-light Voltron this year!

As I said earlier, I simply see it as a movie with decent set pieces enhanced by 3D. Yes this movie will be #1 domestically by the end of the week but I believe HP7.2 will give it some competition.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

As I said earlier, I simply see it as a movie with decent set pieces enhanced by 3D. Yes this movie will be #1 domestically by the end of the week but I believe HP7.2 will give it some competition.

I gotta say you're wrong there. Having "decent set pieces enhanced by 3D" is not responsible for an inevitable 300+ million dollar box office. Battle LA had, truly, decent set pieces and it barely reached 80 million total, and 3D would have not made up much more.

There's so much more to this film/franchise that you're not giving credit to.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

I gotta say you're wrong there. Having "decent set pieces enhanced by 3D" is not responsible for an inevitable 300+ million dollar box office. Battle LA had, truly, decent set pieces and it barely reached 80 million total, and 3D would have not made up much more.

There's so much more to this film/franchise that you're not giving credit to.

Like many people the best movie in this franchise was the first one and it was an enjoyable summer movie. There were many flaws but I was able to overlook them. To me if I never saw DOTM again I'd be completely fine. These last two movies are just FX nothing else interesting to go back and visit. Seeing how we can create these giant robots makes me sad that its wasted on such a poor story. I don't really see what else these films have to offer besides giant robots battling each other.

Box Office is not indicative of the quality of a film. Twilight franchise makes tons of money but its films are not good. The last three pirates movies are mediocre at best but they still gross a ton.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Like many people the best movie in this franchise was the first one and it was an enjoyable summer movie. There were many flaws but I was able to overlook them. To me if I never saw DOTM again I'd be completely fine. These last two movies are just FX nothing else interesting to go back and visit. Seeing how we can create these giant robots makes me sad that its wasted on such a poor story. I don't really see what else these films have to offer besides giant robots battling each other.

Box Office is not indicative of the quality of a film. Twilight franchise makes tons of money but its films are not good. The last three pirates movies are mediocre at best but they still gross a ton.

Not quality of art, but quality of enjoyment. No one goes to the movies to have a bad time.

People REALLY enjoy Transformers 3. It's understood now that you didn't like it.. continuing with your example, I saw Twilight 1, 2 and stopped there.

I still give Twilight credit, people rush to see those movies over almost everything else. I wont be.. but I still understand there's much more to those movies than what it is I see.

[Liam_H]

Originally Posted by OoAnd1

Not quality of art, but quality of enjoyment. No one goes to the movies to have a bad time.

People REALLY enjoy Transformers 3. It's understood now that you didn't like it.. continuing with your example, I saw Twilight 1, 2 and stopped there.

I still give Twilight credit, people rush to see those movies over almost everything else. I wont be.. but I still understand there's much more to those movies than what it is I see.

Well going back all the way to the beginning of this debate; I believe there is far more enjoyment to be had at other movies this summer. Will it have as much spectacle? No, because you can do much more with giant robots. But it seems you find far more enjoyment out of these movies than I ever will.

Also the only thing Twilight really offers, is a Harlequin romance for the female fantasy. I actually read the books to see what the big deal was. Nothing, the message those books send are deplorable. Subsequently the films aren't any better. Transformers at least doesn't send such terrible messages out.

[OoAnd1]

Originally Posted by Liam_H

Well going back all the way to the beginning of this debate; I believe there is far more enjoyment to be had at other movies this summer. Will it have as much spectacle? No, because you can do much more with giant robots. But it seems you find far more enjoyment out of these movies than I ever will.

Also the only thing Twilight really offers, is a Harlequin romance for the female fantasy. I actually read the books to see what the big deal was. Nothing, the message those books send are deplorable. Subsequently the films aren't any better. Transformers at least doesn't send such terrible messages out.

Fair enough.

[warhorse78]

My question is, since The Green Lantern bombed, and Transformers is Paramount's golden boy, you think their next endeavor they could just give Transformers 4 a 300 to 400 million dollar budget, to at least include decent Transformers time, and maybe entice some good quality writers?

[Marvin]

My question is, since TF3 is making a ridiculous amount of money after coming off of 2 of the worst films ever made, how come people say Xmen first class only suffered because it came off bad sequels?

fastest film ever to hit half a million here we come.

[roach]

I wouldnt call TF and TF2 the worst films ever made