Thor's box office competition - Part 1

[hatebox]

I wouldn't be surprised if Priest opens below 10m. It's effect on Thor will be negligible. Bridesmaids could be a dark horse, but either way Thor should have a comfortable drop barely over 50%.

And then Pirates will cripple it. I'm stunned it's getting moderately good reviews.

[marcvader]

I'm worried about Bridesmaids. That looks like the surprise hit of the summer and my girlfriend really wants to see it.

[Evil Twin]

Bridesmaids looks like it's going to benefit from the "it's my turn to pick" factor and good reviews. That still likely means that it will do mid-20s business, but it might take a million or two from Thor.

[JDym]

another $5mil on tuesday

[moe]

200 mil should be possible... but it has to perform this week... say what you want about pirates... but Jack Sparrow is much loved... sure we saw the same character three times... but who can say no to some witty exchanges, monkeys and mermaids... its gonna make **** ton of money...

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by hatebox

I wouldn't be surprised if Priest opens below 10m. It's effect on Thor will be negligible. Bridesmaids could be a dark horse, but either way Thor should have a comfortable drop barely over 50%.

And then Pirates will cripple it. I'm stunned it's getting moderately good reviews.

I think Thor'll be at about $130-135M domestic by the time that POTC4 bows and that's probably 3/5ths to 3/4ths of where it's gonna end up.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by moe

200 mil should be possible... but it has to perform this week... say what you want about pirates... but Jack Sparrow is much loved... sure we saw the same character three times... but who can say no to some witty exchanges, monkeys and mermaids... its gonna make **** ton of money...

If it gets a $35M weekend then I'd say $200M is still on the table.

[KangConquers]

I personally see Thor making 160-180 domestic, and 230-250 foreign. It's going to be tight on a sequel...studios only net about 55% of the gross, plus you have to figure that after Paramount's cut, and the Marketing costs, that Thor will barely be making a profit.

I'm still a little shakey about Paramount's role, and what financial responsibility it assumes as distributor, but we're looking at a 150 million dollar film, with at least 50 million dollars in marketing budget. After the theater dips it's beak in my predicted 410 million dollar worldwide gross, it'll be down to 225 million. Paramount takes 10% for distribution, taking us down to 203.5 million...

If marvel spent 50 million marketing this movie they'd be down to making 3.5 million dollar profit on this movie. If they spent more than that, then they'll still be in the Red on the 400+ million gross. That'll of course be fixed when the movie hits dvd and blu ray, but still, there's plenty to worry about with Thor, and plenty of possibility of it not getting a sequel.

[moe]

Originally Posted by kedrell

If it gets a $35M weekend then I'd say $200M is still on the table.

how is the word of mouth?

[moe]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I personally see Thor making 160-180 domestic, and 230-250 foreign. It's going to be tight on a sequel...studios only net about 55% of the gross, plus you have to figure that after Paramount's cut, and the Marketing costs, that Thor will barely be making a profit.

Thor's sequel will largely depend on Avengers as well... how thor is portrayed and received by the audience... if he is a big talking point after Avengers... sequel is guaranteed.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by moe

how is the word of mouth?

Seems fine based on the dailies but the 2nd weekend is what really tells the tale of WOM.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by moe

Thor's sequel will largely depend on Avengers as well... how thor is portrayed and received by the audience... if he is a big talking point after Avengers... sequel is guaranteed.

Sequel already is pretty much guaranteed.

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Sequel already is pretty much guaranteed.

Yep.

[kedrell]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I personally see Thor making 160-180 domestic, and 230-250 foreign. It's going to be tight on a sequel...studios only net about 55% of the gross, plus you have to figure that after Paramount's cut, and the Marketing costs, that Thor will barely be making a profit.

I'm still a little shakey about Paramount's role, and what financial responsibility it assumes as distributor, but we're looking at a 150 million dollar film, with at least 50 million dollars in marketing budget. After the theater dips it's beak in my predicted 410 million dollar worldwide gross, it'll be down to 225 million. Paramount takes 10% for distribution, taking us down to 203.5 million...

If marvel spent 50 million marketing this movie they'd be down to making 3.5 million dollar profit on this movie. If they spent more than that, then they'll still be in the Red on the 400+ million gross. That'll of course be fixed when the movie hits dvd and blu ray, but still, there's plenty to worry about with Thor, and plenty of possibility of it not getting a sequel.

I think a better way to just easily see if a film is profitable enough to be sequel worthy is to simply double the production budget and figure the studio only sees profitability once it exceeds that level. I know the actual minutia of how their deals go is far more convoluted that that but I think just doubling the budget works on the whole. So once Thor crosses $300M WW it'll be in profit. TIH had the same budget and only ended at $264M WW...thus no sequel. And that's not to say it didn't end up turning a profit after home media & TV rights got factored in but studios usually just go off theatrical grosses(unless DVD response blows up or something like that). Thor will be well into profit after this weekend.

[Chewy]

Yeah. Let's just say if the math in that post were correct there'd be maybe a tenth of the sequels there are.

Studios get more than 55% of the opening weekend. For a big movie like this merchandising and product placement offset much of the cost. etc, etc

A sequel is in the bag at this point.

[Mysteryman]

A sequel is in the bag after it is announced .
They are not even going to consider a sequel until after The Avengers.

[DavidRocky]

Originally Posted by hatebox

I wouldn't be surprised if Priest opens below 10m. It's effect on Thor will be negligible. Bridesmaids could be a dark horse, but either way Thor should have a comfortable drop barely over 50%.

And then Pirates will cripple it. I'm stunned it's getting moderately good reviews.

I agree 100%.I saw Priest today.Not terrible but not good either.Just wait to DVD.

Thor has no real competition until Pirates arrive.

[Raiden]

Originally Posted by kedrell

Sequel already is pretty much guaranteed.

Yeah, when you think about it, Marvel's flagship franchises are with Sony and Fox, so they are left with the Avengers to make movies with at Marvel Studio. And Thor is still one of their most recognizable properties, so there is no reason why they won't make a sequel out of it.

[The Morningstar]

Does anyone think the leak of Thor dented it's OW? I think it may have cost it 5 mill or thereabouts. From what i've heard it was a pretty decent copy.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by KangConquers

I personally see Thor making 160-180 domestic, and 230-250 foreign. It's going to be tight on a sequel...studios only net about 55% of the gross, plus you have to figure that after Paramount's cut, and the Marketing costs, that Thor will barely be making a profit.

I'm still a little shakey about Paramount's role, and what financial responsibility it assumes as distributor, but we're looking at a 150 million dollar film, with at least 50 million dollars in marketing budget. After the theater dips it's beak in my predicted 410 million dollar worldwide gross, it'll be down to 225 million. Paramount takes 10% for distribution, taking us down to 203.5 million...

If marvel spent 50 million marketing this movie they'd be down to making 3.5 million dollar profit on this movie. If they spent more than that, then they'll still be in the Red on the 400+ million gross. That'll of course be fixed when the movie hits dvd and blu ray, but still, there's plenty to worry about with Thor, and plenty of possibility of it not getting a sequel.

The sequel is happening. Fiege has all but confirmed that. They might modify the budget for the next one, but Disney/Marvel have way too much tied up in this. Paramount is already out of the picture after Captain America all future Marvel Studios projects will be released by Disney Pictures.

[Chewy]

Originally Posted by Tony Stark

The sequel is happening. Fiege has all but confirmed that. They might modify the budget for the next one, but Disney/Marvel have way too much tied up in this. Paramount is already out of the picture after Captain America all future Marvel Studios projects will be released by Disney Pictures.

Again, Feige confirming it beforehand means nothing. If it had not been a financial success it wouldn't have happened, end of story. But it has been a financial success.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Chewy

Again, Feige confirming it beforehand means nothing. If it had not been a financial success it wouldn't have happened, end of story. But it has been a financial success.

You're right it's a moot point but I believe it would have gotten a second shot, but there would have been many changes. Branagh would probably be gone, perhaps even a whole recast, but I think they would give it a second shot.

Marvel has to make these properties work because until they get back the rights to Spider-man, X-men, Fantastic Four, if Thor didn't work, what are they going to do next Ant-man?

This is why Disney owning them is so important, they can experiment without everything riding on the line. As successful as Iron Man was, TIH might have put them out of business as an independent studio.

[Chewy]

Yes, they are going to do Ant-Man next. And if Captain America bombs (which I don't think it will, but as an example) there will not be a Captain America sequel. Much like there will not be an Incredible Hulk sequel.

[Tony Stark]

Originally Posted by Chewy

Yes, they are going to do Ant-Man next. And if Captain America bombs (which I don't think it will, but as an example) there will not be a Captain America sequel. Much like there will not be an Incredible Hulk sequel.

You're missing the point here. They will do something with those properties. From what I've heard, with Hulk they may try something for TV again.

They have to make money off being a studio and the only properties they have are these characters. This is totally different than DC where the closest equivalent to Marvel Studios is Legendary Pictures.

TIH was also a different scenario though, because Marvel had to find a distributor and were forced to work with Universal as an agreement for getting the rights to the character back.

Because they have the financial backing of Disney now they have alot less risk than they do with another studio. Yes the films still have to be profitable, but that's part of the reason why Ed Norton and Terrance Howard are no logner involved with Marvel.

Let me put it this way, if these franchises fail, then Marvel Studios will be shut down as a division. They HAVE to make these films, or develop other material based on other things than superheroes.

[Chewy]

And they have dozens of properties that they can adapt to film. If one bombs, they will not dwell, they will move on to the next property.